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drdoom





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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:05 am    Post subject: New NDP Leader was long-time member of Bloc Québécois Reply with quote

From Tuesday's Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le2116721/

Is she still a Bloc separatist or now a genuine federalist? I wonder.
cbasu





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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's only fair. The NDP is the official opposition today because of former Bloc voters who got bored voting for Duceppe. If Layton comes back, this will be a moot point. If not, the NDP will be in a leadership contest by year-end.

We might even see something similar to what the PCs and the Alliance went through in the early-2000s, namely a debate about merging the left-of-center vote. You could see pro- and anti-merger candidates in both the NDP and Liberal leadership races.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 8:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know how to handicap Jack's chances of returning, but let's say it's 2 to 1 that he doesn't return.

Is there anyone from the old, NDP side of the party, that can be a credible candidate?

It seems to me likely that the party falls to Quebec control -- and the leading candidate there would be Thomas Mulcair.

What would that mean for the future of the NDP? And the prospects of a NDP/Liberal merger?
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Honestly;
Its a non-story that is a story because the NDP is the official opposition.

Nycole Turmel was a union leader in Quebec (The President of the Public Service Alliance of Canada) as of 2000.

As a Union leader you normally endorse the furthest left party you can that has a viable chance in any given election.

In the 2000 Election the NDP Secured: 1.8% of the Popular Vote in Quebec
In the 2004 Election the NDP Secured: 4.6% of the Popular Vote in Quebec
In the 2006 Election the NDP Secured: 7.5% of the Popular Vote in Quebec
In the 2008 Election the NDP Secured: 12.2% of the Popular Vote in Quebec

When it appeared that the NDP was making some inroads in Quebec and it looked like Hull—Aylmer was a viable riding (the NDP secured more then 10,000 votes in 2008) she joined the NDP and ran.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
I don't know how to handicap Jack's chances of returning, but let's say it's 2 to 1 that he doesn't return.

Is there anyone from the old, NDP side of the party, that can be a credible candidate?

It seems to me likely that the party falls to Quebec control -- and the leading candidate there would be Thomas Mulcair.

What would that mean for the future of the NDP? And the prospects of a NDP/Liberal merger?


If Jack doesn't return I would imagine we will have a full leadership race and vote at the 2012 convention with Turmel hanging on till then.

However I am thinking positive thoughts and hope Jack is back by September and all of this is just political theory rather then practice.

Mulcair or Davis are the worst case for the party.
Jack was able to pull the NDP from the fire from 2004 onward and they have all generally been singing from the same songsheet since.

Now you have two very clear camps;
Quebec MP's and everyone else.

Given the opportunity to pick a leader the Quebec branch of the party should demand leadership as they make up greater then 50% of the caucus however I am not sure how the balance of the party would handle that.

Jack needs to anoint a leader if he steps down;
Trouble is you need to find a candidate who is well respected by the entire caucus and the media and someone who isn't Mulcair and Davis.

You also can't pick anyone from Quebec if you don't pick Mulcair because that would be carnage.

So of the balance of NDP MP's who has the creditability and the NDP pedigree to lead as well as a safe enough riding that the LPC, CPC, or BQ don't get cute and try and pick them off in the next election with a superstar.

To me I only see one current MP that fits the bill; and that is Jack Harris.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

He seems like a good choice.

You're probably right, that it's mildly in bad taste to contemplate Jack's future in a 'realistic' way.

But I don't see Harris being able to carry a significant part of the Quebec caucus. Which opens up a can of worms.

Bob Rae must be encouraged.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
He seems like a good choice.

You're probably right, that it's mildly in bad taste to contemplate Jack's future in a 'realistic' way.

But I don't see Harris being able to carry a significant part of the Quebec caucus. Which opens up a can of worms.

Bob Rae must be encouraged.


Clearly the hope is that Jack is back in full force in September.

As for the theoretical issue at hand, I think the elder statesman approach trumps any animosity the Quebec Caucus may feel; at least for the interim.

Harris was elected to the Commons in a by-election in 1987, and when he lost in the next election he almost immediately made the jump to the provincial level (in 1990) and became leader of the Provincial Party from 1992 - 2006.

Davis has been an elected NDP official for 14 years, Mulcair for 4.
Harris has a total of 20 years between the Provincial and Federal branch of the party, and he is still younger then Bob Rae.

Its not like he doesn't have the NDP "Cred" to be leader.

He is also largely seen as neutral by both camps; and is one of the hardest working and well respected members of their caucus.

Harris can keep the rudder steady through the next election; and once the NDP determines if its Quebec support is real or simply ADQ-esk then Mulcair can take the reigns without alienating the long term NDP supporters or Davis takes the reigns if its not.

As for Rae;
There is one thing that the Nycole Turmel BQ news did remind me of; The NDP caucus in Quebec are true left of center MP's (Save for Mulcair).

If the Liberals can take one lesson away from the 2011 election its that when the NDP pulled into second place and the choice for many Ontario voters went from Liberal or Conservative, to New Democrat or Conservative Ontario went hard to the right.

Quebec is important but it isn't everything, and I just don't see a Liberal/NDP caucus with Francis Scarpaleggia sitting beside Pat Martin.

If Rae wants to marry the parties he needs to divorce some of his caucus as does the NDP as the political spectrum as we get to know the new NDP Quebec MP's is just too broad for one tent.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yikes;
That matter of fact "No big deal" stance I took a few hours ago may be changing

Quote:
Countdown to emergency NDP caucus meeting starts now. "#NDP confirms Turmel is a current member of Québec solidaire, a sovereigntist party."


http://twitter.com/#!/markstrahl

This is from MP Mark Strahl's twitter page, still looking for some news sources.

If true; then this should be interesting.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 3:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
I don't know how to handicap Jack's chances of returning, but let's say it's 2 to 1 that he doesn't return.

Is there anyone from the old, NDP side of the party, that can be a credible candidate?

It seems to me likely that the party falls to Quebec control -- and the leading candidate there would be Thomas Mulcair.

What would that mean for the future of the NDP? And the prospects of a NDP/Liberal merger?


I think the party will have a number a credible MPs running for the leadership, possibly; Paul Dewer, Don Davies, Megan Leslie, Peter Stoffer, or even Jack Harris. However Tom Mulcair is possibly the only credible Quebec candidate and therefor should easily win.
Edmund Onward James





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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 4:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am more than curious about this, actually suspicious. Layton and his cohorts didn't know this about her? Or she didn't know that she could not be a member with another party and at the same time, even if she was with the BLOC slightly before — she's still associated with a small party, Quebec Solidaire, even more extreme about separation.

Of course, people cross over, the wise ones become conservative. I don't mind if they switch. However, there seems to be more than one or two who are separatists who joined the NDP. Maybe they figured the BLOC would never be across the country; whereas the NDP are and they can convince others to become more like them, or at least push the enevelope. Maybe I am considering too much of a conspiracy. Nonetheless...

Layton and the NDP should replace her as interim leader. And this is the chance for the Liberals to gain some ground by going after this fiasco.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Edmund Onward James wrote:


Layton and the NDP should replace her as interim leader. And this is the chance for the Liberals to gain some ground by going after this fiasco.


I think as a placeholder she is fine;
My feeling is in the unlikely event of a leadership race she wouldn't be a candidate which is why she was chosen in the first place.

I don't think this issue hurts the NDP in Quebec, most of the NDP voters in the last election were former BQ, PQ, SQ, ADQ voters anyway, so why be surprised any candidates use to be affiliated with any of them in the past.

However outside of Quebec it will be interest to see;
The song being sung about the NDP Quebec caucus was that they were a rag tag bunch with loose ties to nationalist politics to begin with.

That simply keeps that narrative moving forward in the rest of Canada, BC and Ontario are the two regions I would keep my eye on in terms of polling to see if it has any effect.
Edmund Onward James





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PostPosted: Wed Aug 03, 2011 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nycole Turmel throws NDP into turmoil
http://www.torontosun.com/2011.....urmel-mess

And now along comes Nycole Turmel, heading an NDP caucus riddled with Quebec "nationalists."

Shortly after returning her Bloc party card, citing "personal reasons" that have "nothing to do with the party's policies," Turmel told reporters she was a "federalist with social values."

Well, which is it? And why is she still a member of Quebec Solidaire, a left-leaning separatist party?

If Turmel's leaving the Bloc had nothing to do with its quest to destroy Canada, and she has yet to cash in her membership in Quebec Solidaire, then how can she now claim to be a federalist?

Jack Layton must provide the answer.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is the worm in the NDP apple. The party affiliation of the placeholder is the least of it. If Quebec wants a unique voice in Ottawa, it will mean big trouble for the NDP. 59 of 75 Quebec seats belong to the NDP at the moment.

In the short-term, Jack may have the jam to keep things bottled up. In the longer term, it is likely to devour the party.

I suspect this is one of the biggest issues in Canadian politics, particularly as the floundering American economy threatens Canadian prosperity.
mrsocko





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PostPosted: Sat Aug 06, 2011 9:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jack is not stupid! He picked her because he wanted to shore up his Quebec side. 59 seats is more than he ever got in the rest of Canada.

He got 44 seats in the rest of Canada and has never moved significantly past the mid 40's in seats while beating his head against the "rest of Canada " wall.

This Turmel move will resonate with Quebecers for a long time.

The rest of Canada will forget about Turmel a month after they pick a new "Quebecois" leader!
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Turmel was picked because she was seen as neutral.

The balance of the NDP caucus that has been elected from 2006 onward must be terrified of the party stance on Quebec.

If you bend over for Quebec, costing you support in your traditional strongholds then the Quebec voters ADQ you, then what?

If Jack wanted to pump Quebec's tires he would have appointed Thomas Mulcair,
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