[RCO]

MPP exodous a problem for McGuinty
Adam Radwanski | Columnist profile | E-mail
From Saturday's Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Jan. 21, 2011 7:47PM EST

One day, the Great 2011 Exodus of Incumbent MPPs might prove to have been a blessing in disguise for the Ontario Liberal Party.

Just not next fall, when it will make holding on to government that much harder.

With Friday’s announcement that Aileen Carroll will not seek re-election in Barrie, nine out of 72 Liberal caucus members have served notice that they’re standing down, with a couple more probably still to come. That’s not automatically a bad thing; turnover can provide an energy boost. But the problem for Dalton McGuinty’s party is which MPPs it’s losing.

The issue is not so much who they are, as where they are. The MPPs who have announced their departure don’t comprise an especially influential group within their party. But they’re mostly from battleground ridings where, even with an incumbent, the Liberals would be in tough to hold off Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives or Andrea Horwath’s NDP.

Ms. Carroll, a former federal minister with a reasonably high local profile, defeated a long-serving PC incumbent in the 2007 election by fewer than 1,400 votes. In the north, David Ramsay, a former minister and one-time New Democrat, held off the NDP in Timiskaming-Cochrane by 634 votes. If that’s not tight enough, Monique Smith was re-elected in Nipissing against a strong Tory challenge by just 357.

Veteran MPPs Bruce Crozier and Pat Hoy both won last time by much more comfortable margins. But they’re in the heart of the southwestern region, where the Tories are hoping that anger over the Liberals’ energy policies will translate into major gains Some departures hurt Mr. McGuinty more than others. Steve Peters’s popularity in the town of St. Thomas, where he was previously mayor, helped the Liberals take control of Elgin-Middlesex-London – a southwestern seat that’s more naturally inclined toward the Conservatives. But even in ridings where the incumbent has been riding the party’s coattails, his or her retirement can help create a change dynamic, and the ensuing nomination campaigns can deplete resources and divide local volunteers who would otherwise be squarely focused on re-election.

Although the Liberals’ central campaign would prefer to have every single incumbent run again – life is simpler that way – there are some aging or under-performing MPPs who could be replaced as candidates at minimal risk. Barring a complete meltdown, there are at least 20 safe Liberal seats. But with the possible (though debatable) exception of Mississauga East-Cooksville, where erstwhile provincial labour minister Peter Fonseca has decided to make a federal run, none of the nine exits really qualifies.

If there’s a silver lining for the Liberals, it’s that even those costly departures could eventually help with renewing their party. As the Tories have discovered since their defeat in 2003 – before which only four of their incumbents voluntarily took their leave – it’s highly unhelpful to be stuck with long-serving MPPs who can carry their ridings, but lack the hunger to fight their way back to government. If a couple of fresh faces have the energy and the skills to keep their ridings in the Liberal fold, they’ll one day prove very useful in opposition.

But opposition, whenever it comes, will not be Mr. McGuinty’s problem. He only has to worry about trying to win one more mandate. And he has to regret his inability to persuade more of his incumbents to help make that a little easier.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1879524/

[RCO]

the most recent results in the 9 ridings where liberal mpp's are retiring

Mississauga east cooksville
Ontario general election, 2007
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Peter Fonseca 22,207 59.0% N/A
Progressive Conservative Zoran Churchin 8,687 23.1% N/A
New Democrat Satish Balasunderam 3,184 8.5% N/A
Green Carla Cassanova 2,355 6.3% N/A
Family Coalition Al Zawadzki 979 2.6% N/A
Freedom Ryan Jamieson 243 0.7% N/

Pickering scarborough east
Liberal Wayne Arthurs 19,762 48.3%
Progressive Conservative Diana Hall 12,884 31.5%
New Democrat Andrea Moffat 4,563 11.1%
Green Anita Lalchan 2,572 6.3%
Libertarian Josh Insang 375 0.9%
Independent John Newell 270 0.7%
Family Coalition Mitchell Andrew Persaud 210 0.5%

Stormony dundas glengary
Liberal Jim Brownell 18,609 48.8
Progressive Conservative Chris Savard 14,782 38.8
New Democrat Lori Taylor 2,795 7.3
Green Elaine Kennedy 1,678 4.4
Family Coalition Lukas Bebjak 249 0.7


Nipissing
Liberal Monique Smith 13,730 41.94 -7.90
Progressive Conservative Bill Vrebosch 13,373 40.85 -0.62
New Democrat Henri Giroux 4,135 12.63 +5.40
Green Amy Brownridge 1,258 3.84 +2.38
Family Coalition Suzanne Plouffe 238 0.73

Temiskaming cochrane
Liberal David Ramsay 11,588 42.90 -16.66
New Democrat John Vanthof 10,954 40.55 22.07
Progressive Conservative Doug Shearer 3,659 13.55 -6.83
Green Patrick East 811 3.00 1.43

Elgin middlesex London
Liberal Steve Peters 20,069 49.1
Progressive Conservative Bill Fehr 12,459 30.5
New Democrat Brad James 4,653 11.4
Green Devin Kelly 3,363 8.2
Freedom Ray Monteith 353 0.9

Essex
Liberal Bruce Crozier 19,969 48.02
Progressive Conservative Richard Kniaziew 10,400 25.01
New Democrat John Grima 8,638 20.77
Green Jessica Fracassi 2,220 5.34
Libertarian Aaron Parent 358 0.86

Chatham Kent essex
Liberal Pat Hoy 18,782 52.0
Progressive Conservative Doug Jackson 10,367 28.7
New Democrat Murray Gaudreau 4,620 12.8
Green Ken Bell 2,056 5.7
Family Coalition MArk Morin 325 0.9


Barrie
Liberal Aileen Carroll 19,548 42.20% +6.07%
Progressive Conservative Joe Tascona 18,167 39.22% -12.56%
Green Erich Jacoby-Hawkins 4,385 9.47% +7.37%
New Democrat Larry Taylor 3,700 7.99% -1.27%
Family Coalition Roberto Sales 173 0.27% -0.45%
Libertarian Paolo Fabrizio 168 0.32% *
Independent Darren Roskam 102 0.22% *
Independent Daniel Gary Predie 77 0.17%


as we can see Nipissing , Barrie and Stormont Dundas were the closest for the ontario pc's during a bad year . the 3 in south western Ontario are also considered to be in play for pc's .well the temiskaming seat is likely to go ndp if liberals lose it . what is also significant is that many of the mpp's leaving are in so called battle ground ridings , these aren't safe liberal seats in toronto , there are ridings dalton could very easily lose .

[machiavelli]

TIME FOR McGUINTY TO RETIRE TO CUBA

Rather than eliminate the $18.7 billion deficit and massive debt that his train wreck is producing, comrade McGuinty continues to increase expenditures to $125.6 billion, an increase of 68.6% since 2003, as he continues to create The Socialist Republic on Ontario; the omnipresent nanny-state!

We need a premier who, rather than increase spending and taxes while producing a $256 billion debt leading this province close to insolvency, would sell Crown Corporations such as The Lottery and Gaming Corp, TVO, Hydro 1 and the LCBO, lay-off tens of thousands of worthless public servants, freeze wages and benefits of those remaining including teachers and all hospital employees for 3 years. Our new, fiscally responsible premier must also eradicate the parasitic unions and left-bias arbitrators, eliminate or privatize programs, abolish the “green energy program”, purge departments, boards, and commissions, sell highways, privatize some of the peripheral health care services, and reform a number of the current “universal” entitlement programs to programs that require “means testing.”

Let’s start an adult conversation pursuant to eliminating the deficit and the $256 billion debt, decreasing taxes and, a genuine, small-c fiscal/social platform.

[Cool Blue]

The Lib MPP for Glengarry Prescott Russell is also retiring.

This riding used to be considered a Lib safe seat for 60 years until the Conservatives took it federally in 2006 and 2008.

This will be an interesting riding to watch and it's been reported in the local news that the PC HQ is going to be targeting it.