[RCO]

Ontario Liberals fall out of majority zone: poll
Laura Stone, Canwest News Service
Published: Monday, October 26, 2009

More On This Story
Ontario to spend more despite facing $24.7B deficit



Mark Blinch/Reuters Ontario Premiere Dalton McGuinty on Oct. 7, 2009.
OTTAWA - Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty and his Liberals are now fighting a financial "three-front war," one that has seen them fall out of majority territory among decided voters, says a new Ipsos-Reid poll conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global Television.

If an election were held today, the Liberals would likely take 39% of the vote among decided voters, as compared to 45% in July, said the poll. Opposition leader Tim Hudak and his Progressive Conservatives would take 36% of the vote, up five points from 31% since July.

The reasons for the Liberals' fall in the poll, said Ipsos-Reid Senior Vice President John Wright, are threefold, but have one thing in common:money.

Along with recent financial scandals affecting provincial ministries -- such as $1-billion in spending at e-Health Ontario and its predecessor, untendered contracts at Cancer Care Ontario and allegations of questionable spending at the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp. -- there's also the record-high provincial deficit which could exceed $24.7-billion and a struggling economy, said Wright.

The Liberals, who have held back-to-back majority governments have been sitting comfortably at 45% for the past two years, while the Conservatives have traditionally hovered around 30%, Mr. Wright said.

"This is the first time that we've actually seen a significant drop in the numbers over a short period of time, plus a cluster of issues that the government is now juggling all at the same time," Mr. Wright said.

The most immediate issue affecting the provincial government is the deficit, Mr. Wright said. But he added that the government's priority has to be the economy.

"They've got to get people working and producing revenue, in order to narrow the gap on that deficit. So I think if anything, they're going to have to have a call to arms on the economy and jobs, and really try and get this province moving," Mr. Wright said.

The next provincial election is in two years. A party needs 41 to 43% of the vote for a majority government.

While the poll found Mr. McGuinty has been able to mute the blame for the recent scandals, with only 35% of Ontarians, pointing the finger directly at the premier and his ministers, 58% believe the Liberal government has not done enough to "deal with the circumstances" of the scandals.

Still, almost half of respondents, at 48%, think the government has handled matters "in the right way."

Mr. Wright says that figure could be of comfort to the premier who may have a tough time ahead with the implementation of the Harmonized Sales Tax next year. He also faces a strong opponent in Hudak.

The poll also found NDP leader Andrea Horwath would receive 16% of decided voters, up from 12 while the Greens under Frank de Jong would fall two points to nine% support.

The poll was conducted during the week of Oct. 20- 25, from a randomly selected sample of 800 adults living in Ontario. The results are considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

http://www.nationalpost.com/ne.....id=2147670


( well it looks like dalton might finally be in trouble and ontario may finally be sick of him , this poll is some truly great news ) with these numbers the liberals might not even be able to win a minority , tim hudak could possibly actually win when considering the concentration of liberal support in toronto )

[cosmostein]

Its positive that the voters of Ontario are FINALLY reaching some level of outrage that only 36% of them will still support the economic disaster that the Liberals have brought upon them.

However, I consider the support soft.

Hudak hasn't done anything.
He is getting support from pissed off Liberal supporters because he is the alternative, not because he has policy or even an issue (aside from the tired DST efforts)

And the problem when support for your party comes because of protest, is that when anger wears off voters have no reason to stay.

Hudak has had the support fall into his lap by no doing of his own,
The PC party could have elected Ed the Sock as leader and been polling at 33% because of the Liberals own mess.

I certainly hope now that he has some degree of support he stops being a broken record on a single issue and gives some of these voters a reason to stay.

[thurmas]

hopefully you guys in ontario and us here in manitoba both get tory governments elected in 2011 selinger here in manitoba reminds me of paul martin or gordon brown for some reason i think its because finance minsters never last long as leaders ie: john turner,ernie eves, paul martin gordon brown ect...

[kwlafayette]

http://www.nationalpost.com/ne.....id=2136298

[RCO]

10/27/2009 3:02:33 PM
Ontario Liberal support tumbles as PCs take the lead.


TORONTO: After a summer and early fall marked by a ministerial resignation over e-health spending, an auditor-general’s report that was critical of government spending practices and news about a spiraling deficit, support for Dalton McGuinty’s Ontario Liberals has declined sharply. For the first time since the last provincial election, they now trail the Ontario Progressive Conservatives, according to the latest Environics Research Group survey of 401 Ontarians, conducted in October 2009.

Liberal support now stands at 32 percent of decided voters, down 12 points since June. This marks a 10-point drop from the level of support the Ontario Liberals received when they were re-elected in October 2007. The sharp drop in support for the Ontario Liberals is matched by increases in support for each of the opposition parties. The Progressive Conservatives now lead, with the support of 37 percent of decided voters, (up 5 points). Support for the NDP is also up slightly; it now has the support of 19 percent of decided voters, (up 4 points). Eleven percent of decided voters opt for the Ontario Greens (up 3 points). Eleven percent of eligible voters express no party preference.



For further information, please contact:

Derek Leebosh, Senior Associate – Environics Research Group (416) 969-2817
derek.leebosh@environics.ca


Methodology
Methodology
These results are taken from an Environics survey of 401 Ontarians aged 18 and older, conducted in between October 6 and 15, 2009. On a provincial basis, these results are accurate to within +/-5.0 percentage points, in 95 out of 100 samples.

Questions:
If a provincial election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for [ROTATE PARTIES] the Liberal Party, the Progressive Conservative Party, the New Democratic Party or the Green Party?

[If “Undecided” ask] Perhaps you have not yet made up your mind; is there nevertheless a party you might be inclined to support?


http://erg.environics.net/medi.....sp?aID=712

( another poll just came out today and the liberals don't even lead , boy its been a while since they were not in the lead , i bet there regreting geting rid of john tory in that silly by-election as i don't think he'd be doing as well )

[RCO]

[Northern Ontario Tory]

[RCO]

[ezbeatz]

[cosmostein]