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 Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 9:02 am Post subject: Ontario Election: Predictions and Best Guesses Here! |
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We are less then a week away from ending the most BORING election campaign I think I have ever been alive for,
With very few parties ever really able to turn it around with less then a week before election day I would be interested in the communities predictions on the potential outcome? |
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| Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 9:06 am Post subject: |
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2003 Results:
Liberals: 72
Progressive Conservatives: 24
New Democrats: 7
My Predictions:
Liberals: 69
Progressive Conservatives: 31
New Democrats: 7
My side note is that John Tory will win Don Valley West with a smaller margin of Victory then Kathleen Wynne won it in 2002. |
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kwlafayette
Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 6155
  
votes: 28
Location: Saskatoon Saskatchewan
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| Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 9:11 am Post subject: |
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I don't think Tory will even get elected, he will fail to win a seat.
Furthermore, in response to yet another crushing defeat, the Ontario PC party will try to find a leader that is even more progressive, and less conservative than Tory. That leader will lose an election or two, and they will continue to wonder why. |
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mrsocko
Joined: 29 Oct 2006
Posts: 2463
votes: 8
Location: Southwestern Ontario
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| Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 12:29 pm Post subject: |
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The PC party believes the crap the leftwing media says about Mike Harris and so has moved the the left. With 2 centrist parties why vote PC when the Liberals can tax and spend better than the PC's can.
They don't stand out from the Libs. That's why the faith based school issue is so huge. It's the issue that identified the PC's as different from the Libs. To bad it was a negative issue. |
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| Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 1:49 pm Post subject: |
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| mrsocko wrote: | The PC party believes the crap the leftwing media says about Mike Harris and so has moved the the left. With 2 centrist parties why vote PC when the Liberals can tax and spend better than the PC's can.
They don't stand out from the Libs. That's why the faith based school issue is so huge. It's the issue that identified the PC's as different from the Libs. To bad it was a negative issue. |
Tory's biggest mistake was honesty,
Being upfront about the Faith Based Funding, while the Liberals will have to deal with it anyway as long as they don't comment on it in a positive way while they need votes they are golden,
And on the taxation front, Tory said that once he entered power and was able to review the books he would be able to give us a tax cut.
FAR to honest for Ontario,
He should have made outlandish promises about a 2% cut in PST and an income tax cut prior to being elected and then done as he pleased when he entered power,
That clearly what voters want in Ontario. |
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| Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 1:59 pm Post subject: |
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| kwlafayette wrote: | I don't think Tory will even get elected, he will fail to win a seat.
Furthermore, in response to yet another crushing defeat, the Ontario PC party will try to find a leader that is even more progressive, and less conservative than Tory. That leader will lose an election or two, and they will continue to wonder why. |
When the Ontario PC party was faced with a "socialist" groundswell of support last time in the late 80's they responded with Mike Harris.
Lets hope this creates a similar response. |
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kwlafayette
Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 6155
votes: 28
Location: Saskatoon Saskatchewan
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| Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 2:01 pm Post subject: |
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I am getting a vague hint of bitterness from somewhere, can't seem to identify the source though....
Seriously though, don't take it personally. Tory was either the wrong man, or it was the wrong time, or both. The campaign he ran, and his involvement with the Campbell re-election campaign makes me wonder though, if this guy is any good at all. Has he ever run a successful campaign? Has he ever run a campaign that was not an abject failure? When this started, it was looking like a slam dunk, and he frittered all of that away. |
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Mac
Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 5500
votes: 35
Location: John Baird's riding...
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| Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 1:41 am Post subject: |
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It should have been a slam-dunk or near to... but McGuinty has controlled the pace and the content (with plenty of help from the MSM) and Tory doesn't seem to have found traction so far.
Who knows? Perhaps the voters will surprise us all...
-Mac |
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| Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 8:13 am Post subject: |
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| kwlafayette wrote: | I am getting a vague hint of bitterness from somewhere, can't seem to identify the source though....
Seriously though, don't take it personally. Tory was either the wrong man, or it was the wrong time, or both. The campaign he ran, and his involvement with the Campbell re-election campaign makes me wonder though, if this guy is any good at all. Has he ever run a successful campaign? Has he ever run a campaign that was not an abject failure? When this started, it was looking like a slam dunk, and he frittered all of that away. |
You are right,
I thought Tory was the right man for the job, he spoke well, he was well liked, and he polled well but the second the campaign dropped he was terrible. Its not just the faith based funding it was the total lack of explanation for that plan and allowing for the Liberals to come out from the ashes as a result.
We NEED to move to a more true conservative in Ontario next time. |
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kwlafayette
Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 6155
votes: 28
Location: Saskatoon Saskatchewan
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| Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 9:53 am Post subject: |
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| Mac wrote: | It should have been a slam-dunk or near to... but McGuinty has controlled the pace and the content (with plenty of help from the MSM) and Tory doesn't seem to have found traction so far.
Who knows? Perhaps the voters will surprise us all...
-Mac |
Well, when your paid strategist is also writing a column for one of the major dailies, I guess that helps just a little bit to get your message out. |
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Matt
Joined: 04 Sep 2006
Posts: 192
votes: 3
Location: York-Centre
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| Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 1:59 pm Post subject: |
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| After John Tory the grassroots are going to show up to the convention in droves to electing a leader so consevative he'll make Mike Harris blush. |
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| Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 5:54 pm Post subject: |
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McGuinty will be in again with a majority thanks to the 'faith based funding' issue, which has become a major issue when it shouldn't be.
What it has done is shown up the hypocrisy of those who are against this initiative but who attended and still support separate school funding. We either fund all relgions, or none. I opt for none! |
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Craig
Site Admin
Joined: 29 Aug 2006
Posts: 4415
votes: 36
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| Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 6:34 pm Post subject: |
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| I'm hoping Tory has a last minute rally sufficient to give McGuinty a minority. |
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Riley W
Joined: 08 Jul 2007
Posts: 857
votes: 10
Location: Manitoba
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| Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 7:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Yeah, the best I am hoping for is McGuinty to be reduced to a minority government. |
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mrsocko
Joined: 29 Oct 2006
Posts: 2463
votes: 8
Location: Southwestern Ontario
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| Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 7:57 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | I'm hoping Tory has a last minute rally sufficient to give McGuinty a minority. |
I wrote somewhere else that I thought that would cost us 4-5 billion dollars in more spending that the NDP will force the Libs to make, in order for their support.
At least with a majority it may cause another election in a year or 2 where the Tory hopefully will have learned from their mistakes and the Lib/Dip coalition will have made a shambles of the provinces finances. |
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