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kwlafayette
Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 6155
  
votes: 28
Location: Saskatoon Saskatchewan
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 Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 10:58 am Post subject: The Greens, popular vote, and the polls. |
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| The Greens got 8% of the popular vote. How does that compare to what the polls said? |
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gc
Joined: 23 Jun 2007
Posts: 1698
votes: 16
Location: A Monochromatic World
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:49 am Post subject: |
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| Pretty close. Why? |
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kwlafayette
Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 6155
votes: 28
Location: Saskatoon Saskatchewan
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:57 am Post subject: |
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| Well, you hear about polls with the Greens polling at 13% or 16% nationally, then you see that in an actual election, they get 2%, or 3%, or 8%. I have a theory that the polling companies are having trouble with the Greens. |
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:02 pm Post subject: |
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The latest polls prior to last night had the Green's at 11 - 12% in Ontario,
So they shed about 4% at the polls. |
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kwlafayette
Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 6155
votes: 28
Location: Saskatoon Saskatchewan
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:11 pm Post subject: |
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| They would have actually got some seats if there vote held. Strange how their vote never holds. They are like the Maple Leafs of Canadian politics. |
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gc
Joined: 23 Jun 2007
Posts: 1698
votes: 16
Location: A Monochromatic World
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:11 pm Post subject: |
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| cosmostein wrote: | The latest polls prior to last night had the Green's at 11 - 12% in Ontario,
So they shed about 4% at the polls. |
Another poll put them at 3% (link)
So they gained 5% according to that poll...
Overall though, the polls showed pretty close to 8% (give or take) (link) |
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kwlafayette
Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 6155
votes: 28
Location: Saskatoon Saskatchewan
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:28 pm Post subject: |
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| So are we saying that + or - 5% is an acceptable level of certainty in polls? Is the level of certainty even that high? I think we really are in an era of inaccurate opinion polling. Polling companies have not figured out how to deal with the Internet, or cell phones yet. |
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:36 pm Post subject: |
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| gc wrote: | | cosmostein wrote: | The latest polls prior to last night had the Green's at 11 - 12% in Ontario,
So they shed about 4% at the polls. |
Another poll put them at 3% (link)
So they gained 5% according to that poll...
Overall though, the polls showed pretty close to 8% (give or take) (link) |
That Environics poll was VERY odd, as it was the lowest the Greens had polled in nearly three years.
And the poll prior and after where both 6 - 8 % higher. |
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gc
Joined: 23 Jun 2007
Posts: 1698
votes: 16
Location: A Monochromatic World
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:12 pm Post subject: |
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| kwlafayette wrote: | | So are we saying that + or - 5% is an acceptable level of certainty in polls? Is the level of certainty even that high? I think we really are in an era of inaccurate opinion polling. Polling companies have not figured out how to deal with the Internet, or cell phones yet. |
Any given poll might be off by a few percent, but if you look at the trend it's pretty close.
If you average all of the polls taken in October, you get 7.7%
If you average all of the polls taken in September + October, you get 8.2%
Pretty close to 8% if you ask me... |
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gc
Joined: 23 Jun 2007
Posts: 1698
votes: 16
Location: A Monochromatic World
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:48 pm Post subject: |
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I find SES polls are usually pretty good.
The last SES poll gave: Liberals 43, PC 31, NDP 18, Green 9.
All within one percentage point. |
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kwlafayette
Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 6155
votes: 28
Location: Saskatoon Saskatchewan
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:58 pm Post subject: |
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| I just went and joined the SES townhall. That is the SES online polling presence. |
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