Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:28 pm Post subject: Poll Smoking with David Herle
I had a chance to glance through the (unbelievably) detailed poll done by David Herle's new venture (h/t Inkless Wells) Gandalf.
The national numbers are not particularly encouraging for the Tories. After keeping most of the election promises, and having had virtually no opposition through the summer, one would have expected somewhat better data from the two provinces offering virtually all of the potential growth for the party.
The Liberal leadership data is also intriguing, even if one discounts Dryden's strong numbers on name recognition.
First, it shows Ignatieff polling behind Rae, Dion, Dryden and Kennedy in one or more regions of the country, and with very anemic support among Canadians, in general, and Liberals, in particular. After the near canonization by the media, one would have expected Iggy to be comfortably in the lead.
Second, as Paul Wells notes in his blog, Bob Rae polls surprisingly well in Ontario. I guess after two terms of Mike Harris, and one term of Dalton McGuinty, some NDP and Liberal supporters miss him. Dion polls well in Quebec, which is to be expected.
Third, Kennedy appears to show the most room for growth, and according to Herle, polls well with women. We will see if his much vaunted ground organization actually delivers.
Finally, a caveat. David Herle was the guy behind two of the most poorly run Liberal campaigns in recent memory. Along with Scott "Beer-and-Donuts" Reid, he was largely responsible for turning a reasonably successful Finance Minister into a bumbling, stumbling Prime Minister. So, take his analysis with a grain - or a bucket - of salt.
Last edited by cbasu on Fri Sep 15, 2006 5:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
Is that the Gandalf poll? Kind of surprising that Dion has the highest Quebec support, and people thought he was not well liked in Quebec. Also, Rae was leading in Ontario, which many would think is counter-intuitive.
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