Home FAQ Search Memberlist User Groups Register Login   

BloggingTories.ca Forum IndexBloggingTories.ca Forum Index
    Index     FAQ     Search     Register     Login         JOIN THE DISCUSSION - CLICK HERE      


  

Post new topic   Reply to topic Page 1 of 1
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 8047
Reputation: 320.8Reputation: 320.8
votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:09 pm    Post subject: Fall Federal Snap Election? Reply with quote

Quote:
Trudeau could conceivably seek approval for two tough decisions: A legislative counterattack on the Federal Court decision to allow work on the Trans Mountain pipeline to relaunch immediately. They could also ask voters to support a tough pushback on Trump on cultural protection and dispute settlement under any NAFTA deal.

Given that there was no breakthrough on NAFTA this week, and the red line remains dispute settlement, do not be surprised if Trudeau orders his negotiating team back home soon — just as Brian Mulroney did on the FTA. Ironically, the breakdown is on precisely the same issue: American refusal to accept a genuinely neutral legal structure to decide trade disputes.


https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/09/09/early-federal-election-rumours-build.html
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 8671
Reputation: 288.6
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm still not sure what I think of the early election rumours . there clearly won't be a federal election until the quebec and New Brunswick elections are over which would be by Oct 1

and even after that date I'm skeptical about the whole thing , you couldn't have one too close to Christmas so you'd be looking at one in early to mid November ?


or the early spring which would be april or may , which might seem more likely , if trudeau didn't want to wait until October 2019


well I think its possible the liberals pull the plug before October 2019 I'm just not sure its going to happen immediately or in the end of 2018
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 5686
Reputation: 281.6
votes: 8

PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When this subject first came up, I said I thought it would be their best move because from that point forward their arc is only going to be downward. Now that's even truer.

My sense of the trade deal is that the Americans are not going to give Freeland and Trudeau a face-saving concession. They have truly offended the administration, and now they will reap their bitter harvest. Their best move now, from the point of view of Canadian national interest, would be to face up to a humiliating defeat, and take the deal -- as soon as possible. Milk will start to get cheaper. People will forget.

When could they call such an election? There's a three-week window in October, or wait for a spring election. Would that be too late?

If the public feels a surprise election is just one more reason to get rid of Justin and his team, we could enter the election with the governing party already eliminated by the majority of voters. How does Scheer distinguish himself from Trudeau in a positive way? He is, after all, Mr Milk Marketing Board of 2018. Is Singh an alternative for Left-inclined voters?

Both Singh and Scheer are fading and neither seems very effective as campaigners.
Singh is having all of his decisions undone. He is going to be 'evaluated' at the next NDP convention. The best thing Singh has going for him is that there is one young, articulate and photogenic rival (Nathan Cullen) and he won't run. And Scheer has a split party on his hands.

t feels like there will be a lot of disenchanted voters in the next election, and party affiliation will probably erode a bit. That adds to the odds for Maxime Bernier.
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 8671
Reputation: 288.6
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the liberals electoral targets are all over the map , this week there top target of all places is Saskatoon Saskatchewan . dozens of government events and an endless amount of ministers handing out money .

sask would seem like a truly bizarre target for trudeau , hot bed of opposition to his carbon tax, home province of Scheer and the province has not elected any liberal mp's other than Ralph Goodale in recent memory , other than an accidental victory in Churchill River in 2000/2006 elections

I have a hard time believing that any of the Saskatoon ridings are in immediate danger of flipping to the liberals , even for them to come in second in some of them would be out of the ordinary )




David Akin 🇨🇦‏Verified account @davidakin · 4h4 hours ago


Today in Saskatchewan, there are a dozen events, most in Saskatoon but also in PA and Regina, at which 15 different ministers will either hand out cheques or talk up the Trudeau government’s record. #LPC has not won a seat in Saskatoon, FYI, since 1993. #cdnpoli
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 8047
Reputation: 320.8Reputation: 320.8
votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It could be argued that the Economy will likely be less robust in October 2019 than it will be now.

We will also have another deficit budget under the governments belt on the back of near record revenue.

Right now the Prime Minister has a "Villain" in the US President and can attempt to argue that "we won't be bullied and with a fresh mandate we can't be bullied".

The NDP is shambles and could likely cede its entire collection of seats in Quebec to the Liberals.

The Liberals winning a majority in 2015 was a perfect storm;

The Tories still secured a tremendous amount of votes but new voters simply flooded the ballot boxes and without Electoral Reform and Legalization on the table the Prime Minister needs something to get voter turnout because his opposition is likely more motivated to go to the polls than those who wanted Electoral Reform in 2015 and were left in the cold.

The Tories have their own issues internally and even if you are a "Bernier Guy" there simply isn't enough time for him to be a player in a Fall Election.

Timing wise;
Its about as good a chance as any.

I look forward to the media declaring that Trudeau has broken Election Law with a snap election much as they did with Harper in 2008 :)
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 5686
Reputation: 281.6
votes: 8

PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

An election campaign while the trade negotiations are going on?

What would do more to make "trade" the central issue of the campaign? And what is the one issue the Trudeau-crats wouldn't want to be evaluated on -- if they can stir the boy-king from his delusional cloud of self-congratulatory narcissism?

The Bernier camp is already letting people know they are successfully fund-raising, and soe MPs would run as Bernier supporters in the election ... and he is the one guy with a free hand on trade. And it's his issue, he probably knows more about it than his rivals.

And there are always the French language debates, where Andrew will get a chance to show that French immersion -- think of it as 'government French' -- makes you just as much a French-speaker as any of them ...

All that is needed is a minority government. That's the good part.
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 8047
Reputation: 320.8Reputation: 320.8
votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think their aim will be to make trade the central issue;
The aim will be to make Trump the central issue.

The Conservative Camp(s) will argue that we need access to American markets and Trudeau will claim they are shill of the Americans (despite the Liberal record on providing alternate global markets to Canadian Business) and run as being the only leader who can stand up for Canadians over the cold talons of Business interests and the evil President.....

The challenge Bernier faces is that election laws make fundraising a long and slow process;
If an election is called in November (for the sake of argument);

Even if he is selling out dinners and raising money at a CPC or LPC rate, he will simply run out of runway before Election Day.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 5686
Reputation: 281.6
votes: 8

PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First reaction: how are you going to make Trump the issue without making trade the issue? I understand what you mean, that is, that they can try to make all the aspects of Trump that are not involved in the trade negotiations the reason for the election.

Good luck with that. My sense of it is that Trudeau's position is only going to get worse in the trade negotiations. The reason? Speculation of course, but the way I read the tea-leaves, there is no 'compromise' on the table about the outline of the deal. Trump has put Justin in an impossible situation. He takes the auto part of the deal as is, and concedes on dairy tariffs, or Trump will set the market conditions that take all the auto jobs in Canada away.

Freeland keeps going to a civil servant's office to 'find a compromise' ... on what? As I understand the Canadian position, we want to talk to Mexico and bring their families up to Canadian standards on gender issues, for example. But that moment has passed, hasn't it?

If Canada turns down the NAFTA deal on the table, Congress will accept the trade deal with Mexico without Canada.

So -- what do we want out of the deal? To save supply-management? To 'save face'? Canadians don't care much about Justin's face, and if they care about supply-management, that'll end as soon as they start saving 50 cents on a bag of milk. Where's the up-side of getting into a trade war with the US?

Second point: If there were a snap election, don't you think the Orange Beast would be tweeting about it? If he's a symbol of evil in Justin's nightmare. that's just the kind of thing that would provoke Trump.

That might be the least of it. Trump might decide to show us where we really stand in the world if we don't have the USA backing us.

The Canadian position on trade is indefensible. They want Canadians to rally to their cause, but what's in it for them? What are we risking our future for? Ford will go nuts in Ontario because Ontario needs the auto industry! That will be hard ground for Trudeau. Who knows how Kenney and Mo will add to the debate. That are people who have to get coverage.

Summing it up: A snap election may be the best choice the Liberals have if things unfold as I think they will. But it won't be an easy path. They have the media, the split in the Conservative Party, and little else.

I suspect that they'll take a reading on the probability that the Republicans lose the House of Representatives before they resort to a snap election. They might just as easily capitulate and cover it up as best they can. They'd have a few months to change the topic.
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 8671
Reputation: 288.6
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Liberal brass say ruling party in good shape one year before election

By Joan Bryden. Published on Sep 13, 2018 4:20am



SASKATOON — Federal Liberal officials say the ruling party is in good shape as it approaches the one-year countdown to the next election — even if the Conservatives have raised more money and nominated more candidates.

Azam Ishmael, the Liberals’ national director, and party president Suzanne Cowan gave a report on the party’s election readiness Wednesday to Liberal MPs attending a caucus retreat ahead of next week’s resumption of Parliament.

A note prepared by the party says the Liberals’ online fundraising scored its best July ever and its best August in a non-election year.

Moreover, the party now has more monthly grassroots donors than at any time in its history, and more than 15,000 people have signed up recently as volunteers. Over the summer, the party organized 579 “summer of action” events across the country, knocking on doors and talking to voters.

The grassroots mobilization is proceeding “at a faster pace than we’ve ever seen this far ahead of an election campaign,” the note says.

As well, 25 Liberal MPs, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, have been nominated as candidates for the next election, plus one new contender.

By contrast, the Conservatives have nominated some 100 candidates for the country’s 338 ridings thus far.

And while the Tories continue to rake in money hand over fist — $12.1 million in the first six months of 2018, compared to $6.4 million pulled in by the Liberals — Ishmael says those comparisons are misleading.

“I think you need to look at the actual truth on fundraising. It’s not about the gross amount of dollars that are raised, it’s about what’s left in your pocket,” Ishmael said in an interview.

The Conservatives, he said, are spending twice as much to raise twice as much as the Liberals. In terms of money available to spend on pre-election organizing, he said the real gap between the two parties is just $500,000.

Similarly, Ishmael said the nomination numbers are misleading.

The Liberal party has declared that all 183 of its MPs will be acclaimed without having to win nomination contests in their ridings — provided they meet certain fundraising, membership and voter engagement targets by Oct. 1. Ishmael said the vast majority are expected to meet those targets, so their nominations are effectively formalities.

Some MPs, he added, are deliberately holding off on their nominations, choosing to time their acclamations closer to the election for strategic reasons.

“We’re feeling in good shape, our team is in good shape, both on the ground and here — our caucus team,” said Cowan.

“So, I’m feeling very optimistic about where we’re at.”

https://ipolitics.ca/2018/09/13/liberal-brass-say-ruling-party-in-good-shape-one-year-before-election/
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 5686
Reputation: 281.6
votes: 8

PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why would a "top federal Liberal" -- the national director of the party -- say these things, all of which testify for the Liberals unpreparedness for any snap election?

My suspicion? It's because he is denying assumptions behind the questions he is being asked. He is denying what reporters suspect. It's because they're worried. They have unanticipated problems with the pipelines, and while they may be fundraising off of the trade dispute, that is endangering our stability and people are waking up to that.

On the other hand, the polls are steady. They probably are going day-to-day, hoping for some lucky break, or how to use the trade issue to win supporters ... throwing ideas around hoping something will stick. The polls are a trailing indicator. It's working so far, but their problems are in the future.

They can string the negotiations out -- unless the Americans cut them off -- until the election (if they want). But the fact that the Foreign Minister of Canada is meeting a 'technician' with ambassadorial rank in his office -- not with the Secretary of State of the USA in the State Department -- tells you a lot, and gives credence to the story that Freeland is persona non grata at the White House.

If so, she should be replaced. That simple. This is too important an issue to give it over to an ex-reporter with a head full of dreams. Effectiveness is what we want here. It seems we are sacrificing our national interest so that Crystia Freeland can feel powerful ...

You never know what they are really negotiating about at the moment, but what are we fighting for, and why are we fighting for it? Nobody in the media asks that question in that form. What is there about supply-management that you like? And do you like it so much that you are willing to lose a dime on your dollar?

But these thoughts will occur to people during the election or Maxime Bernier hasn't done his job!
Post new topic   Reply to topic Page 1 of 1

  


 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum


Fall Federal Snap Election?

phpBBCopyright 2001, 2005 phpBB