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Bugs





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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:06 am    Post subject: Conservatives would win Fed election if it were now. Reply with quote


Federal Conservatives would win majority if election held today: Forum poll

Kevin Connor
Updated: December 9, 2018 9:43 AM EST

The federal Conservative party would win a majority is an election was held today, a new poll shows.

In a recent random sampling, 43% said they would vote conservative, while 34% would cast a Liberal ballot.

“The Conservatives have a strong and steady lead over the Liberals as we go into the New Year,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, which conducted the survey.

“With more than half of the NDP, BQ (Bloc Quebecois) and Green voters believing that Canada is better off now than it was four years ago, it will be imperative for (Prime Minister Justin) Trudeau’s Liberals to capture uncommitted voters from those parties in order to have a chance at winning the election over (Andrew) Scheer’s Conservatives.

Favouring the Conservatives is the latest results finding that 54% of respondents disapprove of the job Trudeau is doing, which include a number of unpopular gaffes.

The PM was recently criticized for tweeting to a late night TV celebrity that Canada would donate $50 millions to an education charity the host was involved in. Critics said Trudeau was trying to impress a celebrity.

Earlier this year, the Trudeau government took a $1.6 million trip to India and included in the expenses was $17,000 to bring along a celebrity chief to prepare a meal for an official reception.

Among the many other missteps, has been his very unpopular claim the budget will balance itself.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has 41% disapproval rate with voters, according to the poll.

Scheer’s disapproval rate is the lowest at 35%.

When questioned who would make the best prime minister, the survey says it was a horse race with Scheer and Trudeau nearly tied for the best PM.
https://ottawasun.com/news/local-news/fed-conservatives-poised-to-win-majority-if-election-held-today-forum-poll/wcm/b5846295-4e95-4650-a371-99175ba5bb3d?nnw
================================================

The Conservative leader is the best of the lot, with only a third of the population holding their noses.

It shows how skunky-smelling Trudeau is when the economy is 'perking along with full employment. By all 'normal standards, Trudeau should 'have smooth sailing ahead.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

although there is some lingering question about the forum polls showing the cpc way ahead when none of the other pollsters are showing the same things


Forum also is not including the people's party in there numbers , they usually get 4 % in some of the other polls so that could be an issue with there numbers ( so if we were to add them and take 3 % away from cpc and 1 % from liberals , the numbers would be 40 % cpc , 33 lib , 11 ndp , 6 green , 4 bloc and 4 people )


they also poll more men than women and men tend to favour the conservatives more


but overall this poll isn't overly promising for either Trudeau or Singh , show high disapproval for both , also a crazy low seat prediction for the ndp at only 10 , not even enough for party status


I find the trudeau liberals tend to disregard and criticise anything that shows trudeau doing poorly , they cannot except the idea he is not universally popular , so that factor also makes it harder to determine the polls level of accuracy or not
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Poll results are best viewed as an index, going up or down, rather than a prediction about actual voting behaviour. The majority of people tune out of politics as much as they can between elections. Their emotions change, but they don't change their rhetoric because it is unsettled. But during the campaign, they open their ears and minds, and re-evaluate.

In other words, campaigns count.

I think that Ontario is really uncomfortable with this government, although it hasn't shown in a clear way. Liberal public relations have been focussed on giving the impression they have protected Canadians from the Trump tornado. People aren't buying it, but they don't know how to counter it. The mute who leads the Conservatives doesn't help, but of course, his primary loyalty is to the milk cartel so we can see the bind he's in.

Where is Bernier?
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

While the national numbers may differ wildly over many different pollsters, this one simply states what many others are also stating.

-The Liberals have a problem West of Ontario where they secured 29 seats in 2015 (4 and 7 respectively was their total in the previous two elections.

-The gap between the CPC and the LPC in Ontario doesn't appear to be the same 10 point gap it was on election day. 50 seats live in that 10 point gap and its where the largest party will likely be chosen

-The NDP may not win a single seat in Quebec and the LPC may add upwards of 25 in the Province.

-The LPC is strong in Atlantic Canada and held that strength for most of the term in office but appears at least unlikely they will sweep the region again.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
While the national numbers may differ wildly over many different pollsters, this one simply states what many others are also stating.

-The Liberals have a problem West of Ontario where they secured 29 seats in 2015 (4 and 7 respectively was their total in the previous two elections.

-The gap between the CPC and the LPC in Ontario doesn't appear to be the same 10 point gap it was on election day. 50 seats live in that 10 point gap and its where the largest party will likely be chosen

-The NDP may not win a single seat in Quebec and the LPC may add upwards of 25 in the Province.

-The LPC is strong in Atlantic Canada and held that strength for most of the term in office but appears at least unlikely they will sweep the region again.




the liberals have had a problem out west for just about there entire time in office , never really been able to win over the " west " . although the liberals have polled well in BC at times but its unlikely they'd win all those seats a second time , some are just such untypical liberal seats in deeply conservative areas they face long odds in a few of them


its clear 2011 in quebec was a one time event and the ndp faces long odds to even hold onto some of what they have now . and none of there former mp's have indicated they plan to run again . it would appear the ndp in quebec is in a troublesome spot rate now , with no way to turn things around



but I noticed former Toronto ndp mp Andrew Cash ( davenport ) plans to run again but he would appear to be a rarity , so far no other former ndp mp's plan to run again although some may eventually do so
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Video of Daniel Richler interviewing Andrew Cash ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXW9wlieZO8

It's from when he was part of a punk band which reeked of imitative mediocrity. ("Punk" is what made the pop world go sour.)
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( some posts online seem to indicate there has been a dramatic shift in the Ontario numbers , nanos previously showed a large liberal lead but according to graph the conservatives now lead , i'll see if I can find more on this poll )




Éric Grenier‏Verified account @EricGrenierCBC · 15m15 minutes ago


 More


Well, that escalated quickly.

(Nanos's latest results out of Ontario. Update to the Poll Tracker coming later this morning!)






( these would seem to be the national numbers )





Lorrie Goldstein‏Verified account @sunlorrie · 2h2 hours ago



New Nanos poll: Federal Conservatives 35%; Liberals 34%; NDP 14%; Greens 8%; People's Party of Canada 1%; BQ (Quebec only) 3%. http://www.nanos.co/wp-content.....Slides.pdf … #cdnpoli
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Could this be the result of Trudeau's blunder at the Vancouver Airport? What else?

Canadians don't like having a leader that is Donald Trump's joy-boy.
=================================================

China's threats over Huawei CFO's arrest rattle Canadian business
'The options (for payback) are essentially limitless,' says Business Council of Canada spokesman
Peter Zimonjic, Katie Simpson, Tom Parry · CBC News · Posted: Dec 10, 2018 7:36 PM ET | Last Updated: December 10

As China continues to threaten Canada with unnamed "consequences" if it doesn't release the chief financial officer of Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei, some in Canada's business community are openly worried about what's coming next.

"The options are essentially limitless and that's what's concerning about this," Brian Kingston, vice president of policy for the Business Council of Canada, told CBC News.

Meng Wanzhou, CFO of Chinese technology giant Huawei — and also the daughter of the firm's founder — was arrested in Vancouver on Dec. 1. She is wanted for extradition to the U.S. on allegations of fraud, including using a shell company to skirt international American sanctions on Iran over five years.

Since the arrest, China has made it clear that they want Wanzhou released immediately, arguing that she is being treated inhumanely.

"For Canada, if they do not correctly handle this matter, there will be serious consequences. You asked, what kind of serious consequences would these be? I can tell you in one sentence: It is totally up to Canada," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said Monday at a news conference in Beijing. [....]
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/china-threatening-canada-consequences-1.4940382
================================================

How did our genius leadership put us in a position where we are having our asses kicked by both of the two biggest economies in the world at the same time? Thank you, Crystia Freeland and Justin Trudeau.
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

either way it looks like were headed for more of a competitive election , similar to 2004 or 2008 , not a wave election like 2015


an election where the outcome would seem to be in doubt and many ridings could suddenly now be in play



I think the cpc needs to get more aggressive , they shouldn't be targeting just the riding that were close in 2015 or voted cpc in 2011 . there needs to be more of an expansion strategy into unheld areas


some mp's I think the cpc needs to take a serious run at would include - Seamus O'reagan , St John's South Mount Pearl . he seems safe being a high profile minister who won by a large margin in 2015 but something about the deep tory history in the st john's area leads me to suspect his riding could be a lot closer in 2019 and the cpc needs to find someone high profile to challenge him


they also need to find a way to win back seats in PEI , it has a stale and unpopular provincial liberal government . it seems ripe for the picking . except its liberal incumbents seem unwilling to ever retire . both Macauly and Easter have been mp's for 20 plus years . if you haven't accomplished your goals within 10 years isn't it time to question your effectiveness in Ottawa ? and why your still an MP ?


not to forgot about open ndp seats like Edmonton Strathcona and Port Moody Coquitlam . they were pretty safe ndp seats when they had incumbents but it seems likely they'll be a lot more competitive without one. both these ridings had been conservative ( alliance ) in the late 90's 2000's
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My assessment: Think about it ... the election is in doubt even though the unemployment rate is at a 40 year low -- and the opposition is so lame that it has had almost no effect ... and yet the election is in doubt.

Canadians see that we are becoming diplomatically isolated ... our leaders have even managed to go out of their way to irritate Saudi Arabia by trying to impose their politically correct cultural imperialism on them. They feel economically vulnerable, and that nobody is protecting them. If it weren't for Macron, Trudeau would be the runaway winner of the "Biggest Goof in Politics' award for 2018.

The Letterkenny people see a bunch of naifs running the country, and blithely taking us down the garden path, risking our prosperity on idealistic causes. Hate to tell you this, my fellow Canadians, but we may maintain appearances, but the truth is we don't give a shit whether Saudi women can drive or not.

This is a gang that couldn't even legalize marijuana without making a mess of it. And now they are threatening us with a carbon tax.

The only problem is that there is no other candidate that offers anything more attractive. The Letterkenny people don't want to hear about Andrew's carbon plan. They want assurances that Canada will not try to lead on any of these issues. We should sign on to such a thing only when our trade partners already have. We are the small fry in these relationships. We should forget the idea that we have any 'weight' to throw around because in the hands of amateurs, that can get us in a lot of trouble. As it is, the failed drama teacher and the ex-journalist have shown us the quick route to getting the world mad at us without any benefit to us.

The situation calls out for Bernier to start bringing these things into focal attention.

I don't think anyone can tell what this election will be like because Justin has broken through to the Apathy Party people, and they don't like it. If a lot of those people saw an alternative, they'd come out. In other words, under the glass-like surface, there is the potetial of a lot of volatility that can be easily stirred.
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
My assessment: Think about it ... the election is in doubt even though the unemployment rate is at a 40 year low -- and the opposition is so lame that it has had almost no effect ... and yet the election is in doubt.

Canadians see that we are becoming diplomatically isolated ... our leaders have even managed to go out of their way to irritate Saudi Arabia by trying to impose their politically correct cultural imperialism on them. They feel economically vulnerable, and that nobody is protecting them. If it weren't for Macron, Trudeau would be the runaway winner of the "Biggest Goof in Politics' award for 2018.

The Letterkenny people see a bunch of naifs running the country, and blithely taking us down the garden path, risking our prosperity on idealistic causes. Hate to tell you this, my fellow Canadians, but we may maintain appearances, but the truth is we don't give a shit whether Saudi women can drive or not.

This is a gang that couldn't even legalize marijuana without making a mess of it. And now they are threatening us with a carbon tax.

The only problem is that there is no other candidate that offers anything more attractive. The Letterkenny people don't want to hear about Andrew's carbon plan. They want assurances that Canada will not try to lead on any of these issues. We should sign on to such a thing only when our trade partners already have. We are the small fry in these relationships. We should forget the idea that we have any 'weight' to throw around because in the hands of amateurs, that can get us in a lot of trouble. As it is, the failed drama teacher and the ex-journalist have shown us the quick route to getting the world mad at us without any benefit to us.

The situation calls out for Bernier to start bringing these things into focal attention.

I don't think anyone can tell what this election will be like because Justin has broken through to the Apathy Party people, and they don't like it. If a lot of those people saw an alternative, they'd come out. In other words, under the glass-like surface, there is the potetial of a lot of volatility that can be easily stirred.




going back to 2015 , a lot of people just assumed trudeau would get a second term , think that's partly why interest in the cpc leadership was light


however whatever assumptions were made in 2015 don't seem to be coming true as we near 2019

and whatever factors were motivating progressive voters out and contributed to all there wins federally and provincially between 2014 and 2015 ,don't seem to be working anymore


think its clear there is growing and significant lack of interest in seeing the liberal government continue . sort of like people not wanting to see the sequel to the movie which had originally been popular . people just don't seem to care


doesn't necessary mean trudeau will automatically lose but he's certainly looking more vulnerable and the election outcome is very much uncertain
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not me. I started sensing the direction of this government back when his indulgence of his relatives and pals at the public expense became public. The nannies, the trip to Paris with a huge 'delegation' ... the 50-50 cabinet ... just listing it makes me feel vaguely nauseous.

That doesn't mean I thought it would be this bad. I don't understand how the civil service could let Justin make such a blunder as occurred at the Vancouver airport, for example. He must have surrounded himself with "yes men", which is the kind of narcissistic move you'd expect. And deadly. Now the Chinese are taking Canadian hostages.

Frankly, this is (by far) the worst government we have had since World War II, and probably since Alexander MacKenzie ... it's only because of the media, and the lack of aggressive opposition that the public is so placid. A big part of the electorate thinks there's no real alternative, no one with the jam to get us out of the predicament that the goofy twins have already put us in. Tell me that isn't the truth!

Where is Bernier?
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
Not me. I started sensing the direction of this government back when his indulgence of his relatives and pals at the public expense became public. The nannies, the trip to Paris with a huge 'delegation' ... the 50-50 cabinet ... just listing it makes me feel vaguely nauseous.

That doesn't mean I thought it would be this bad. I don't understand how the civil service could let Justin make such a blunder as occurred at the Vancouver airport, for example. He must have surrounded himself with "yes men", which is the kind of narcissistic move you'd expect. And deadly. Now the Chinese are taking Canadian hostages.

Frankly, this is (by far) the worst government we have had since World War II, and probably since Alexander MacKenzie ... it's only because of the media, and the lack of aggressive opposition that the public is so placid. A big part of the electorate thinks there's no real alternative, no one with the jam to get us out of the predicament that the goofy twins have already put us in. Tell me that isn't the truth!

Where is Bernier?



I think many on here and those who follow politics closely knew something was sour about this government long ago and that it was more about giving liberals fancy positions in Ottawa and trudeau access to expensive trips around the world than anything else



anyways things will likely quiet down as we head into Christmas break and new years , which is typically the case every year


as for Bernier he's been traveling the country rather aggressively , he's been all over the place . the people's party is busy setting up " electoral district associations " rather boring process but necessary to be a real party . posts online indicate they have all 42 in BC set up , not sure about other places
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just remember -- at the heart of Trudeau's administration are the biggest perps from the McGuinty mob that took over the government of Ontario ... so I was suspicious from the start. My impression was not favourable. They won't give up on their environmental goals no matter what they say. It's probably the same with the gender stuff.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
( some posts online seem to indicate there has been a dramatic shift in the Ontario numbers , nanos previously showed a large liberal lead but according to graph the conservatives now lead , i'll see if I can find more on this poll )

Éric Grenier‏Verified account @EricGrenierCBC · 15m15 minutes ago

Well, that escalated quickly.

(Nanos's latest results out of Ontario. Update to the Poll Tracker coming later this morning!)

Lorrie Goldstein‏Verified account @sunlorrie · 2h2 hours ago

New Nanos poll: Federal Conservatives 35%; Liberals 34%; NDP 14%; Greens 8%; People's Party of Canada 1%; BQ (Quebec only) 3%. http://www.nanos.co/wp-content.....Slides.pdf … #cdnpoli


The Nanos shift is significant because they use a four week rolling average where the oldest sampling gets dropped but the weight of the last three weeks tends to hold down the current week

Having the sample shifted by one week is huge;

From a timing perspective the LPC is having a terrible week;
Pipelines, Carbon Tax, China, and Equalization are all hitting hard and at the same time.

It now becomes a matter of if anyone in opposition can capitalize.
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