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Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 6187
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:00 am    Post subject: Has the stock market changed direction? Reply with quote

The #MAGA Stock Market Trendline Is Broken
by Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/25/2018 - 08:06
Authored by Jesse Colombo via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

It was another red day in the markets with the Dow dropping 608.01 points or 2.41% and the S&P 500 dropping 84.59 points or 3.09%, which means that both indices are now down for the year. As someone who is warning about a dangerous stock market bubble (please watch my presentation to learn more), market behavior like this makes me very concerned. Even more concerning is the fact that the major U.S. stock indices have broken below their important uptrend lines that have formed in early-2016. These uptrend lines have guided the U.S. stock market higher for the past couple years during the phase of the stock market bubble that occurred after President Donald Trump won the election (hence why I call it the “#MAGA [‘Make America Great Again’] trendline.” The breakdown of this trendline signifies a very important change of trend.

Today’s sell-off caused the S&P 500 to break below its uptrend line that began in early-2016. For further confirmation, I want to see if the index stays beneath this level by the close of trading on Friday. The next major technical support and price target to watch is the 2,550 to 2,600 support zone that formed at the lows earlier this year.

Unlike the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has not yet broken below its key uptrend line. If the Dow closes below this uptrend line in a convincing manner on the weekly chart (possibly in the next couple days if the sell-off continues), the next important support level and price target to watch is the 23,250 to 23,500 zone that formed in early-2018. [....]

To put it simply, major trendline breakdowns like the one that occurred yesterday are not what you want to see if you’re a stock market bull. I want to see if the indices discussed are able to close at their current levels or below on a weekly basis by the end of trading on Friday to give a more definite signal. Assuming the recent trendline breakdowns hold, the next price target I’m watching is the support zones that were created at the lows of the early-2018 sell-off. If those supports eventually give way, even further bearish action is very likely.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-25/maga-stock-market-trendline-broken
================================================

A new bear market may have arrived. Thoughts on what this will mean?
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 6187
Reputation: 294.7
votes: 8

PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"The Market Is Killing Us" - European Stocks Crash To 2-Year Lows
by Tyler Durden
Tue, 11/20/2018 - 09:30

While US is grabbing the headlines as the hedge fund hotels and momentum darlings of the last 10 years have suddenly collapsed, European markets have been a bloodbath longer and that pain is accelerating rapidly...

As Bloomberg reports, The sell-off in European stocks has been so violent that Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at the German asset manager MPPM EK, now spends half his working day on the phone with fearful clients.

“So much pain, the market is killing us,” he said by phone from Eppstein, Germany.

“European equities have lost investor confidence due to Italy, Brexit. Liquidity is the place to be right now.”

Italy and Germany are the worst performers year-to-date...

Hernandez Sampere said it’s best to hide from the European equity correction by holding cash, and the fund has increased its cash positioning to the “high single-digits” in November even though it’s normally fully invested.

He is not alone - a slew of institutional investors are issuing ominous warnings:

Goldman Sachs strategists recommend that mixed-asset investors lift their cash allocations and dial back on risk.

Ken Adams, head of tactical asset allocation at Aberdeen Standard Investments says: “You need a catalyst to trigger buying in European stocks and it’s hard to come up with a story investors can believe in... The region has disappointed in terms of growth expectations and the general political backdrop is challenging.” [....]
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-20/market-killing-us-european-stocks-crash-2-year-lows
=================================================

Apple took a crap yesterday -- and that's a bellweather. If this is real, it'll start hitting jobs in the US soon ... with the normal ramifications for us. It will likely make the Americans more protectionist. Just sayin' ... I am (or course) comforted in the knowledge that Justin will get us through this better than Harper could ever have done.
Toronto Centre





Joined: 12 Feb 2011
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Location: Toronto

PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 1:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I am (or course) comforted in the knowledge that Justin will get us through this better than Harper could ever have done.


Ahh...smart guy you are. Of course he will. It has been the case (not just JT but most of the Lib PM's) for quite some time now.


" Princeton professors Alan Blinder and Mark Watson have actually looked at the data and they find a striking difference in the performance of the US economy under Democratic and Republican presidents. And the Democrats perform much better than their conservative counterparts."
http://theconversation.com/the.....d-up-56678

" Under the Liberals, there were nine straight surpluses beginning in 1996. Under the Conservatives, a string of seven deficits. (ouch)
On the pertinent matter of national debt (as per any Greek comparisons), it went down significantly under the Liberals but has gone up by more than $160-billion under Mr. Harper. The Liberals posted not a single trade deficit while the Harper Conservatives have had one practically every year. The Conservatives have been more impressive on tax cuts, although the Liberals did bring in one of the largest in history. On employment, it's no contest – the Liberals in a walk.
Circumstances need to be noted. The Liberals did not have a brutal global recession with which to contend, but they did inherit a then record $42-billion deficit in 1993. And they did leave the Conservatives a cushy $13-billion surplus and a smiling set of fiscal and regulatory conditions.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/tories-liberals-who-are-the-better-economic-managers/article23252879/

Would you like more Sir or is this enough. Cuz....ya know...I gots more . :)
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The gentle reader will recall that the deficits came as a reaction to the coup d'etat that Messieurs Ignatieff. Layton and Duceppe tried to organize ... in the midst of the banking crisis in the USA. The price was a program of job stimulation which they did effectively through subsidies.

In fact. Canada did better than any other G-7 nation in handling the crisis. Most Globe&Mail readers probably didn't even notice that there was an economic crisis gripping most of the rest of the world.

But that isn't a standard good enough for the Liberals! They promised to do better, to make our economy more dynamic and prosperous ... by incurring a judiciously small amount of new borrowing. Perhaps TC can tell us when his party intends to fulfill that promise.
Toronto Centre





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Location: Toronto

PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well done. Straight from the Con playbook !

Of course you'd invoke the G7
Bugs wrote:


In fact. Canada did better than any other G-7 nation in handling the crisis. Most Globe&Mail readers probably didn't even notice that there was an economic crisis gripping most of the rest of the world.


Sure they would. Globe readers are smart, not lil' dumb old ham and eggers in small towns.

See....same article, had you read you would have been smart enough to see this.....wait a sec, no you wouldnt.

Quote:
The Conservative strategy, a very smart one, has been to constantly frame the debate in terms of how Canada has done compared to G7 countries. The answer: great. But if you cast a wider net, for example to G20 countries, the result is mediocre.



Thanks for playing. To the end of the line for losers.

Next ?
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, the G-20 is made up of countries like Brazil that were in inflationary bubbles at the time. In Brazil's case, it was abetted by World Cup fervour. Even so, we had the best employment rate, etc.

These developing countries took a turn towards the Venezuela path -- and look where they are now!

Canadians, by contrast, were so complacent that they elected a failed drama teacher to keep us in the calm waters we had enjoyed during the storm. How were they to know that he'd embarrass them so thoroughly?
Toronto Centre





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Posts: 1282
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Location: Toronto

PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 7:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
Yeah, the G-20 is made up of countries....


Blah blah blah but not a thing about how liberals have historically been better for the economy than cons.

Thanks, my case has been made.

No more moving the goalposts. LOL!
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 6187
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 7:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good, now we can get back to watching how this economy is doing under the wavering hand of our dilettante Prime Minister, the bungling Justin Trudeau.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 6187
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votes: 8

PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 2:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Nothing Is Working": Stunned Investors Observe The Market Carnage In Shock
by Tyler Durden
Tue, 11/20/2018 - 21:52

Usually the excuse "nothing is working" is used by finance professionals when begging clients not to pull their money, desperate to explain woeful performance and when there are no other explanations left. Only in 2018, that excuse is absolutely correct.

After another abysmal day, in which every single sector in the market closed in the red as stocks tumbled 2%, capping a dreadful two-month stretch since the S&P hit its all time highs exactly two months ago, which has seen both the S&P and the Dow turn red for the year with the Nasdaq just barely holding onto green, while oil crashed 6% slumping to a one year low, junk bonds matched a record streak of losses, the overall market just suffered one of its worst sessions in the past three years.

But what is most remarkable is the following chart from Bloomberg which shows the year-to-date return of the best performing asset between US and global equities, corporate bonds, Treasuries, gold and real cash, and according to which 2018 is shaping up as what may be the worst year on record for cross-asset investors. Indeed, nothing at all has worked this year!

The inability of any single asset class to escape the dismal black hole supergravity of devastating losses in a brutal post-BTFD catharsis that has mutated into an equal-opportunity rout, crushing returns across all assets, has left investors reeling, shellshocked and paralyzed, and dreading what may come tomorrow let alone next year when both the US economy and corporate earnings are expected to see their supercharged recent growth rates come crashing back down to earth.

“While there’s still no ‘panic in the streets,’ most traders are unconvinced that the selling will slow down anytime soon,” said Instinent's head of trading Larry Weiss. “The flight to quality is now a flight to cash. It’s tough to convince anyone that now is the time to put money to work.

Meanwhile, amid radiosilence of hope for the bulls as the market breaches one support level after the next, the Federal Reserve shows no sign of easing back on its tightening crusade or delaying the interest rate hikes that have become the source of nightmares for holders of some $5 trillion in corporate bonds that were sold by S&P 500 companies in the past decade, and whose proceeds were largely squandered in the pursuit of stock buybacks and fleeting shareholders gains and higher management compensations.

Beneath the turbulent surface of the stormy market, even stronger undercurrents threaten to tear apart what's left of investor optimism. After a decade of outperformance by growth stocks, the sector has seen a historic flight as rotation into the unloved, largely forgotten value sector has emerged on a scale unseen in years.

Hedge funds, who hoped that "buy the dip" would work one last time and who rushed into the traditional "safety" of tech stocks at the end of October, were whipsawed, and turned net sellers this month, with the group accounting for the most selling among major industries according to Goldman Sachs. Meanwhile, as if sensing the coming storm, Goldman writes that hedge fund net exposures steadily declined throughout 2018, including during 2Q and 3Q while the broad equity market rallied, leaving most investors in the cold. Net long exposure calculated based on 13-F filings and publicly-available short interest data registered 49% at the start of 4Q, a decline from 56% at the start of 2018, and one of the lowest in years. [....]
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-20/nothing-working-shellshocked-investors-observe-market-carnage-dismay
================================================

The article goes on to nail down even better proofs that investors are leaving the stock market. Don't think the 'investors' are ordinary people. The stock market is now bought mostly by big mutual funds and pension funds. But the stock market has gone up for years on the basis of low interest rates. Now they are rising and the chances of further growth changes the arithmetic.
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Has the stock market changed direction?

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