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Joined: 02 Mar 2009
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Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:31 am    Post subject: tight provincial race in ontario all 3 parties near 30% Reply with quote

( Tight provinvial race in ontario 33 pc , 31 ndp , 30 liberal , makes you wonder if anyone would risk an election with these numbers , ndp would have the most to gain if they were able to actually find new ridings they could win )

Wynne, Hudak and Horwath in dead heat: Poll

By Shawn Jeffords,Toronto Sun

First posted: Monday, February 11, 2013 05:00 AM EST | Updated: Monday, February 11,

TORONTO -- So much for the bump.

If premier-designate Kathleen Wynne was hoping for a post-leadership convention hike in her polling numbers, a new Abacus Data survey shows that she will be sorely disappointed.

Wynne finds herself in a dead-heat with Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives and Andrea Horwath's New Democrats, according to the online poll.

The Tories came in with 33% support of decided voters while NDP's attracted 31% and the Liberal's 30%. The poll of 1,020 people -- conducted Feb. 6-8 -- found 16% of respondents were undecided.

"I wouldn't call this a big bounce compared to December when we last polled," said Abacus Data's CEO David Coletto, pointing to the Liberals polling at 28% support.

"The Liberals are only up two points which is not outside the margin of error. You could actually argue there is no bounce here."

What's worse, most Ontarians don't even know who Wynne is, Coletto said.

"It's not really a reflection on her, but a very short leadership race," he said. "They were really only talking to the 40,000 Liberal Party members, not the general public."

But the news is equally grim for PC Leader Tim Hudak, who has spent months making public appearances and policy announcements.

"If I were a Progressive Conservative, looking at these numbers I would be disappointed," he said. "The Liberals have had one of the worst years any incumbent party could have. For the official Opposition to not see much growth at all in their support raises questions about the strategy and appeal that the party and Tim Hudak has."

In a December poll, Hudak's party had 35% support.

Coletto said the results show Andrea Horwath is the most popular leader in the province and the NDP has successfully positioned itself as the party that wants to make the minority legislature work.

"In a climate where we've recently had an (provincial) election, where we've had so many federal elections in a row, I think voters in Ontario don't necessarily want another election... As a result, her conciliatory tone and her standing up for certain populist issues like auto insurance has been effective."

Because the sample was not random, a margin of error could not be calculated.

However, polls of this size generally have a margin of error of 3.1%, 19 out of 20 times, according to Coletto.


Joined: 04 Oct 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

When it comes to Ontario "Province Wide Numbers" mean nothing;

Hudak is basically in the same position he was in October 2011with a moderate drop in regions he dominated which won't change the outcome in those regions but with one very very important difference, rather then trailing by 4% in the 905's he is ahead 8%.

Ahead in a region the PC's where 3/18 previously, with the LPO going 14/18. and the NDP 1/18 (solely on the back of Jagmeet Singh)

That represents roughly a 10 seat swing (my numbers actually show 12 but lets be conservative); all coming at the hands of the Liberals.

That's bringing the total to 47 seats;

Then you factor in seats like Ottawa—Orléans, Ottawa West—Nepean, Glengarry—
Prescott—Russell. and Niagara Falls coming into play simply because NDP support is coming at the hands of LPO and not the PC, and we talking 51 seats right now.

Hudak has been effective in terms of actually developing a platform ahead of an election (just like Harris did in 1994) and he is in a respectable position.
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tight provincial race in ontario all 3 parties near 30%

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