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 Posted: Wed Jul 04, 2012 3:46 pm Post subject: Forums: CPC and NDP tied, but CPC still forms government |
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| Quote: | Despite a recent poll surge that put the NDP ahead of the Tories, Thomas Mulcair’s party is now tied with the Conservatives, according to a new Forum Poll for the National Post.
The poll has the NDP and Tories neck-and-neck with 35% of the national vote, with the Liberals on 19% followed by the Bloc Quebecois (6%) and the Green party (3%). |
| Quote: | | If these predictions held true on Election Day, the Conservatives would capture a minority government with 144 seats — 17 more seats than the NDP’s 127. The Liberals would take 32 seats and the Bloc Quebecois four. |
http://news.nationalpost.com/2.....-stalling/
Why is this interesting?
Because it seems to reflect what we have seen in polling recently, the NDP with an impressive number nationally, but still trailing everywhere (save for BC in some polls) west of Quebec.
The NDP seems to have a firm grip on Quebec, strength in Atlantic Canada, and in some cases dwell within the MoE of the Tories in BC.
The Forums Research prediction is interesting:
CPC: 144
NDP: 127
LPC: 32
BQ: 4
GPC: 1
Which equals 308 seats;
Trouble is we don't have a Commons that contains 308 seats, and if regional polling from other pollsters is any indication it appears the Tories maintain a stranglehold of support in rural and suburban Ontario (IE double digit lead), Alberta, and in Rural and Suburban BC, whereas the NDP maintains a dominate lead in Quebec.
Problem is only 3 of the 30 new seats are in Quebec, the 27 other seats are largely spread over areas which the Tories are largely ahead in.
It appears with the distribution of seats that Forming a majority is no longer about the magic 40% number nationally, but it seems to be squarely on how your support is within Ontario and Western Canada.
If many of these numbers hold true, even with the NDP winning all 78 seats in Quebec with a massive 70% degree of support all the Tories would need to do is maintain similar levels of support within Ontario and the West and they still form a majority, and even in this case the NDP could see a national support number similar to that of the CPC.
It appears the Fair Representation Act may be the most significant piece of legislation passed in a while. |
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| Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:18 pm Post subject: |
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The NDP could actually be at a high water mark right now. Their brand of radicalsim does not play too well in Canada, and their Quebec base is pretty fragile; if voters their don't see the NDP "bringing home the bacon" they may well revert back to the BQ. National Socialism may be more appealing than Social Democracy in those circumstances.
Bayonetting the LPC out of the urban ridings will probably be tougher, but vote splitting between LPC diehards unwilling to admit it is over and former Liberals switching to the NDP might even allow a run up the middle for several seats.
I would mostly focus on good governance and let the results speak for themselves; 2015 is a long way away |
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| Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 11:40 am Post subject: |
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| Thucydides wrote: | The NDP could actually be at a high water mark right now. Their brand of radicalsim does not play too well in Canada, and their Quebec base is pretty fragile; if voters their don't see the NDP "bringing home the bacon" they may well revert back to the BQ. National Socialism may be more appealing than Social Democracy in those circumstances.
Bayonetting the LPC out of the urban ridings will probably be tougher, but vote splitting between LPC diehards unwilling to admit it is over and former Liberals switching to the NDP might even allow a run up the middle for several seats. |
Looks like you were correct;
Latest Nanos:
National:
CPC: 34
NDP: 30
LPC: 26.5
BQ:4
GPC: 4
Ontario:
CPC: 37
LPC: 31
NDP: 25
Quebec:
NDP: 39
LPC: 25
CPC: 17
BQ: 17
Just to save some time;
NDP leading in Atlantic Canada (35 to CPC 33),
NDP Trailing Conservatives everywhere west of Quebec, and actually in 3rd place in the Prairies and Ontario)
http://www.nanosresearch.com/l.....allotE.pdf |
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| Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 11:50 am Post subject: |
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Tom Mulcair moved forward with a bold strategy;
Rattle your sabre in a region that isn't going to vote for you anyway (Western Canada) to solidify support in the area that got you where you are (Quebec) and hope that the region that is normally apathetic to the rest of Canada likes it enough to jump aboard (Ontario)
The issue is that the NDP now appears to be polling worse West of Quebec then they secured on election day and an artificial pop from Atlantic Canada appears to be the only thing keeping them from being statistically tied with the Liberals nationally.
Whats interesting is the "Anti-Harper" crowd appear to be rallying behind a party that has no leader rather then a party which has the second most seats and a freshly minted leader. |
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