[RCO]

Alberta election set for April 23

By JACKIE L. LARSON, QMI Agency



Battle for Alberta begins

Play video


EDMONTON — Alberta voters will go to the polls April 23.

Premier Alison Redford asked Lt.-Gov. Donald S. Ethell to drop the writ Monday.

The announcement ends a tense pre-election legislative session and sends all parties scurrying to the campaign trail.

So far, there are 356 contenders, a record number of candidates among the province's 87 ridings, including some hotly contested five-way battles.

As of Friday, the ruling Progressive Conservatives, the Wildrose Party and the New Democratic Party each had a full slate of 87 candidates. The Liberal Party had 70 candidates and the Alberta Party had 25.

Chaldeans Mensah, a political science professor at Grant MacEwan University, said riding-level contests are going to be particularly important for parties fielding fewer candidates — the Liberals and Alberta Party so far — and those who are expected to have core areas where they are strongest, like the New Democrats with strongholds in certain Edmonton ridings.


But for the ruling Progressive Conservatives and their closest rival, the Wildrose Party, the battle is all over the province, Mensah said.

"I think it's an 87-riding campaign — it's going to be fought provincially, and riding by riding — especially in the rural ridings," Mensah said.

"There's no question that the Conservatives are back on their heels because of the recent forceful attacks by the opposition in the current session of the legislature," he said.

"The Wildrose Party has been the major beneficiary of discontent with the PCs. The challenge for the Wildrose is to be able to work hard and keep a sense of momentum and hopefully to be able to translate all the support they get into legislature seats," Mensah said.

Back in 1971, the upstart Progressive Conservative party seized power under Peter Lougheed, surprising the defeated Social Credits.

"This time around, the PCs are in the centre, under Redford. They consider themselves a big-tent party but essentially tend to be more centrist than the Wildrose," Mensah said.

Redford issued a statement Monday that focuses on fiscal restraint, days after passing a record budget.

"In the six months since I was elected premier, we have introduced policies to bring discipline to spending, to support seniors and vulnerable Albertans, to enhance education, and to put health care on a better path forward. In this campaign, I will talk about how we build on those foundational policies, and how we embrace the energy and imagination of all Albertans to continue building the finest place in the world in which to live," she said.

Her decision to head to the polls makes sense, Mensah said.

"She's got to call it early and let the debate begin on issues. I think the opposition is doing a lot more damage as the legislative session drags on. It's better for the election to be called, and for the electorate to focus on the issues of the campaign," Mensah said.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Po.....50346.html

[RCO]

( say goodbye to premier redford :D )


Wildrose Party would form majority Alberta government: Poll


By JACKIE L. LARSON,Edmonton Sun

First posted: Wednesday, March 28, 2012 05:00 AM MDT


Danielle Smith, the Wildrose Party's leader. (EDMONTON SUN FILE)



Related Stories
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•Tory committee payback rings hollow
•Surprise: MLAs living high on the hog

Topics
•Battle for Alberta

- See all the poll results, follow election tweets, and vote in our own poll below the story.

--

The Wildrose Party would become Alberta’s next majority government if the election was held today, suggests a Forum Research poll conducted Monday.

The Wildrose would have 58 seats in the Alberta legislature, with the current Progressive Conservatives taking a distant second with 22 seats, figures show.

The numbers show a province poised for sweeping change, said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.

“Every so often, there’s been an election which is a defining election, and the party that wins it is in for quite a number of election periods,” he said.

“It’s usually a big switch, not a close election. This is what this is looking like.”

Among Albertans 18 years or older polled immediately after the election was called Monday for April 23, it was found that four-in-10 would back the Wildrose Party if the election was held today (41%).

That’s compared to just three-in-10 who would support the Progressive Conservatives (31%), an 11 point jump for Wildrose since Forum’s last poll in February, for a convincing double-digit lead.

In a toe-to-toe comparison, Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith has captured the lead, Bozinoff said, adding that Premier Alison Redford’s approval ratings -- never strong -- have dipped to pre-December levels.

“Danielle Smith has been ahead of her party in terms of approval ratings -- she’s at 46% now. Once you get into the 40% zone, you just get a flood of seats that you’re likely to win,” he said.

Despite passing a record $40 billion budget that promised something for everyone -- and an ad campaign explaining it all to Albertans at a cost that approached $425,000, Redford’s PCs have taken it on the chin recently over issues like MLA pay, the no-meet committee, and the multi-million dollar golden handshake for retiring MLAs, Bozinoff said.

“We didn’t see any lift in the polls from the budget. It didn’t give them any boost. Flatness during a budget is remarkable,” he said.

“One of their problems is that they have 40 years of baggage -- generally in an election, it’s the governing party that loses support. The optics are bad because they’re always on the defensive.”

With strong rural roots, Wildrose is way ahead in the rural south -- 46 to 29 south of Red Deer -- and ahead 41 to 36 in the rural north.

In urban centers, the party is surging, blitzing the Tories in Calgary, he said.

“That looks like a disaster for the Tories down in Calgary. The real toss-up area is Edmonton. Wildrose is at 31 to the Tories 30...statistically speaking, it’s an exact tie. We’re going to see some three-way and four-way fights there,” he said.

In a province dominated by PC politics for four decades, an electorate leaning further to the right could say something about the Tory legacy, Bozinoff said.

“It may be that the premier has taken the Tories a little too far towards centre. They’re kind of in the middle, and that makes them vulnerable to either side,” he said.

The poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1069 randomly selected residents of Alberta aged 18 or older.

The poll was conducted on March 26. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20.

http://www.edmontonsun.com/2012/03/27/wildrose



[/img]

[RCO]

Wildrose’s thorn: Before Danielle Smith can change Alberta’s legislature, she has to win her seat
Jen Gerson Mar 28, 2012 – 1:28 AM ET | Last Updated: Mar 28, 2012 4:11 PM ET


Gavin Young / Postmedia news
Wildrose leader Danielle Smith greets supporters. She moved into her current riding, south of Calgary, last July.



There’s one candidate who can seriously derail the upstart Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith as she attempts to overthrow Alberta’s long-ruling Progressive Conservatives. That candidate is a man named John Barlow.

He’s the former associate publisher of the Okotoks Western Wheel, a father of three, and a long-time resident of Okotoks, a bedroom community about an hour’s drive south of Calgary. The town is situated in the constituency where Ms. Smith is vying for her first legislature seat in the April 23 election. If the Wildrose leader loses, she would not be able to attack a Tory government in Question Period. Her young party, however many other seats it won, would be embarrassed and weakened. And the PCs are not fielding a limp-fish party placeholder.


“[Mr. Barlow] is completely honest,” said Allen King, one of the would-be MLA’s campaign workers.

Shortly after Ms. Smith rolled through town to deliver her first campaign pledge, Mr. King was the only volunteer tidying the Highwood PC candidate’s office on Tuesday morning. He wouldn’t say how old he was, just that he had lived in the area since the ’50s. He had nothing against Ms. Smith per se: He didn’t begrudge her the race.

“It’s a free country,” he said. But Mr. King is confident his candidate can win.

In fact, so is the Premier. Alison Redford toured in the region with Mr. Barlow on Tuesday, a pointed fly-by of Ms. Smith’s hoped-for seat mere hours after the green-wrapped Wildrose bus pulled into Okotoks.

Ms. Smith made her first major campaign announcement in the town.

Aiming at the Tories’ deficit budget passed last week, Ms. Smith said her party, if elected, would tie the budget to inflation plus growth, ban deficits and bolster the province’s Heritage savings fund to $200-billion within 20 years.


Greg Fulmes for National Post
PC candidate John Barlow, left, says he’s got a better handle on the issues in Highwood than Danielle Smith. “I know the issues here and I know how these issues affect people.”

“We pledge to balance the budget this year. We pledge to be in surplus next year while increasing funding on health, education and social services,” she said.

But before she stands up in the legislature to do anything, Ms. Smith first has to get elected. She’s been sitting outside since she won her party’s leadership in 2009. That means winning her home constituency, which was re-drawn the same year the PCs took power under then-premier Peter Lougheed.

The Tories have held Highwood since the mid-’70s: It opened to challengers when MLA George Groeneveld announced his retirement last October.

Although much of the constituency comprises Prairie grassland and a highway out of Calgary, Okotoks is one of the fastest-growing small cities in the country.

When campaign volunteer Mr. King first applied for the job as the town’s only pharmacist more than five decades ago, he drove through the main strip and thought: “If I last more than three months, it will be a miracle, in this place.” There was nothing here, then. A few houses on the side of the road. An old hotel. A few ramshackle businesses.

‘Wildrose thought this was ripe for the picking and they were wrong’
At the time, Okotoks was a town of 650. Now it’s home to 24,500 — more than 40% of that growth has taken place since 2006. Due in part to a limited water supply, the municipality has capped the population at 35,000.

Growth has been good to Mr. King. After the town’s old pharmacist had a heart attack, he started his own business. People thought he was crazy, he said, but he bought a strip of land, built his store, and the customers just kept coming in. They never stopped.

Okotoks’ bustling main stretch is now lined with coffee shops, small restaurants and a Western art gallery filled with work from local artists depicting mostly horses and mountain vistas.

“I call this the Palm Springs of Alberta,” Mr. King said. “We have the best temperatures, the best seasons and we’re close to all the great amenities that Calgary has to offer.”

The roads are good now, too, he added, easing the commute to the city.

“It was like we awakened. We were no longer this sleepy little town. People wanted to move in here and they still want to move in here.”

Mayor Bill Robertson credits much of the town’s success to the oil and gas industry. Okotoks is the preferred place for those who work in Calgary, but don’t like big-city living.

He also suspects Ms. Smith chose the constituency for its auspicious political history: Before it was re-zoned, this was the same district that sent “Bible” Bill Aberhart to the legislature leading an emergent Social Credit party that would itself rule for nearly 40 years — until beaten by the Tories in 1971.

“Symbolically, this is where it all started for the Socreds,” Mr. Robertson said.

‘She thought there were going to be some disgruntled Conservatives here’
Ms. Smith has said she chose the seat because she sees Highwood as Alberta in miniature, a microcosm of the issues facing the province as a whole.

“It [seems] to me that there was a lot of work that the Premier needs to do stitching the province back together. There’s divisions north and south, rural and urban, small town, big city,” said Ms. Smith. “It all comes together in the Highwood riding. It’s a very diverse riding. We’ve got a large urban centre, Okotoks. We’ve got a small town, High River, which is where I make my home. Plus we’ve got about 20% of the riding which is rural.”

In addition to Okotoks — and the problems a rapidly growing municipality like it can face — the area is also home to ranchers, farmers and oil and gas development.

And Mr. Barlow thinks he’s got a much better handle on the region than Ms. Smith.

He’s lived in Highwood for more than 20 years. He said his time with the local paper has made him keenly aware of the area’s politics.

As a reporter “you attend every town council meeting, every school meeting,” he said. “My roots are very deep here. I think those things pay off in the long run. I know the issues here and I know how these issues affect people who live here.”

If Mr. Barlow is facing off against Ms. Smith’s star power and oft-praised charisma, he doesn’t seem daunted.

“She thought there were going to be some disgruntled Conservatives here,” he said; their previous MLA, Mr. Groeneveld, was demoted from Cabinet by Ms. Redford’s predecessor, Ed Stelmach.

“[Wildrose] thought this was ripe for the picking and they were wrong,” Mr. Barlow said. “People understand why she came here and they’re not buying the fact that someone just came in here thinking this was going to be an easy win. We are going to be a formidable challenge.”

Ms. Smith isn’t lacking for confidence, either. She moved to the constituency last year and lives in a house just off the main drag in High River, near the water tower. Which means something if you live in High River.

“I know Ms. Redford is trying to imply that I don’t [live here], I moved here in July,” she said.

The Mayor isn’t quick to put money on either candidate: He said he’d work with either. Mr. Barlow’s got a good shot at winning, he added.

“Probably more than a shot I would say. There’s a very strong, active political base in the Highwood constituency that is wholeheartedly supporting, it appears, John Barlow,” said Mr. Robertson. “When the wheels of that political machine get rolling, they are very powerful.”


http://news.nationalpost.com/2.....-alliance/

[cosmostein]

I have to give credit to Smith and the Wildrose Party,
I wasn't sure if they would have had a chance in heck of securing opposition status a few months ago based on polling, but now it looks like they may pick up the type of support Ralph Klein secured in 2004.

[Progressive Tory]

Abacus Data shows the Wildrose 13 points ahead of the PCs.

WRP - 41%
PC - 28%
Liberal - 16%
NDP - 12%

[RCO]

[Progressive Tory]

[RCO]

( more bad news for the pc's )

Alberta battle hits below the belt
Updated
6:30 pm, March 31st, 2012
2:36 pm, March 31st, 2012



Related Videos
Alberta battle goes below the belt
Alberta battle
EXCLUSIVE: Wildrose rising



Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith met with supporters at a campaign stop in front of the Federal Building on 107 Street in Edmonton, Alberta, on March 28, 2012.

Credits: IAN KUCERAK/EDMONTON SUN/QMI AGENCY


QMI AGENCY




CALGARY - The PC staffer who issued a nasty and personal attack aimed at Wildrose Alliance boss Danielle Smith has resigned.

Amanda Wilkie, an executive assistant to the executive director of the premier's southern Alberta office, composed a Tweet on Friday implying Smith's recently announced three-part Wildrose family pack campaign was insincere and tagged Smith in the message.

"If @ElectDanielle likes young and growing families so much, why doesn't she have children of her own?" wrote Wilkie.

The tweet caused an uproar on Twitter and was later deleted. Wilkie apologized on the social networking site and by Saturday, the account was deleted.

Smith issued a statement responding to the staffer's tweet Saturday morning.

"When David and I married in 2006 we intended to have children together," she wrote.

"After a few years we sought help from the Calgary Regional Fertility Clinic. I appreciated the support and assistance of the caring staff as we went through tests and treatments, but in the end we were not successful."

The statement went on to say Smith considers herself lucky to play the role of step-mom to her husband's son Jonathan, and says she's blessed to have grown up in a large family.

"Family is very important to me and I consider this to be a very personal matter," she said.

"I will not be commenting on it further."
Wilkie, who was at one time the manager of membership and contributions for Wildrose Alberta, has since resigned from the premier's office.

Premier Alison Redford confirmed the resignation Saturday in a statement that condemned the tweet.

"Alberta is made up of all types of families. Each one has a story. Each one is unique. There is no one type of family that is more authentic than the other.

"Last night, a tweet was sent that was entirely inappropriate. It was hurtful and does not reflect my values nor those of my campaign in any way.

"Once I became aware of the tweet, I called Danielle Smith immediately. I look forward to speaking with her privately.
"The young woman who authored the tweet has resigned from her position. From that action I know she understands the gravity of her actions."

Liberal leader Raj Sherman also condemned the PC staffer's actions on Twitter.

"Redford's team has crossed the line," he said. "This is unnacceptable."

But he also went on to criticize the tone of the whole election campaign.

"This has to stop. It's OK to debate on ideas, but there's no room for personal attacks."

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/s.....43640.html

[RCO]

Crunching Numbers

A week in, Alberta election is Wildrose’s to lose


éric grenier

Globe and Mail Update

Published Monday, Apr. 02, 2012 8:33AM EDT

Last updated Monday, Apr. 02, 2012 8:44AM EDT


With Alison Redford’s Progressive Conservatives in freefall and Danielle Smith’s Wildrose gaining steam, Alberta is on pace to replace its government for the first time in 41 years.

ThreeHundredEight.com’s vote and seat projection model, which aggregates, weighs and adjusts all publicly released opinion polls, indicates Wildrose would have the support of 37.3 per cent of Albertans if an election were held today. The Progressive Conservatives, who have governed the province since 1971, would take only 33.7 per cent of the vote, a dramatic 19-point drop since the 2008 election.

More related to this story
•In some Alberta ridings, election is far from a two-horse race
•On fertility, Danielle Smith protests too much
•Alison Redford: A leader on the brink


Infographic

Where Alberta parties stand at beginning of 2012 election campaign

With these levels of support, Wildrose would likely capture 44 of the Alberta legislature’s 87 seats, giving Ms. Smith the narrowest of majorities. Ms. Redford would be bumped from the premier’s office to the role of Official Opposition, with her party winning 36 seats.

Albertans are headed to the polls on Apr. 23.

Since Feb. 6, the PCs have seen their support slip by 11.6 points and their projected seat haul by 37 seats. Plagued by questions over an inquiry into the health-care system, MLA pay for non-sitting committees and fundraising methods used by the party, the Progressive Conservatives have taken a big hit from Wildrose’s message of fiscal restraint and accountability. Since early February, Wildrose has picked up 14.6 points, a significant shift in a matter of only eight weeks.

Wildrose has supplanted the Tories in two of their fortresses: Calgary and the rural parts of the province. In Alberta’s major city, Wildrose has picked up more than 14 points since February and now leads with a projected 43 per cent of the vote, enough to give the party 21 seats in the area. The PCs have dropped 13.9 points to 31.5 per cent, and are projected to win only six seats.

Outside of Calgary and Edmonton, Wildrose is up almost 15 points to 42.7 per cent, well ahead of the Tories, who stand at 34.2 per cent. Here the division of seats is more even, with Wildrose projected to win 18 and the Tories 13.

But Wildrose is also making inroads in Edmonton, the provincial capital that is traditionally where most of the Liberal and NDP opposition has been elected. Though the Progressive Conservatives still lead with a projected 34.5 per cent of the vote and 17 seats, Wildrose is nipping at their heels with 26.9 per cent support. If Wildrose can hold these votes until Apr. 23, they could win five seats in the capital.

The Liberals and New Democrats, however, would combine for a larger representation in Edmonton. Provincewide, the Liberals under Raj Sherman are projected to take 14.1 per cent of the vote, a gain of less than a point since February but still down more than 12 points since the last provincial election. They are on track to win three seats, all of them in Edmonton where the Liberals are third with 18.5 per cent support.

The New Democrats are projected to have the support of 11.1 per cent of Albertans, enough to double their representation in the legislature and give them four seats. All of them would also be elected in Edmonton, where the NDP stands at 16.5 per cent support.

But the polls are not in complete agreement. Three surveys, all taken after the writ dropped last Monday, have placed Wildrose ahead of the Tories by a significant margin. However, three polls conducted just before the election campaign began put the PCs narrowly up on Wildrose. The three post-writ polls all used the interactive voice response method, while the three pre-writ polls were conducted either by telephone with live callers or online. A wider methodological post-writ spread would help confirm Wildrose’s lead.

This degree of uncertainty suggests that, if an election were held today, a wide range of outcomes are conceivable. Indeed, there is enough volatility in the polls that the Tories could win anywhere between 12 and 64 seats and Wildrose between 20 and 70. The Liberals could be shut out entirely or win 10 seats, while the NDP could win as many as eight. Nevertheless, the projected outcome, or something very close to it, is most likely.

Has Wildrose peaked too soon? Changes in government in Alberta are so rare (the current PC government is, in effect, only Alberta’s fourth since 1905) that there is little example upon which to draw. If Albertans have determined that the life of the Progressive Conservative government has come to a close, Wildrose could coast to victory between now and Apr. 23. On the other hand, if progressive voters become concerned that the right-wing Wildrose will form the next government, they could flock to the Progressive Conservatives and their more centrist leader.

Outside of the two main cities, the fight is clearly between the Tories and Wildrose. Support for the NDP and Liberals is in the single digits here. In Calgary, however, support for the Liberals stands at over 14 per cent, enough to play the spoiler in some of the closest contests. And the four parties are transforming Edmonton into a chaotic four-way race further complicated by the presence of the centrist Alberta Party. If the Progressive Conservatives can benefit from vote-splitting in the city, they may be able to survive on election night.

The campaign is only a week old, and already the race is the province’s most interesting – and perhaps its most important – in almost two decades. Danielle Smith and her Wildrose Party have started on the right foot, but maintaining this momentum for the next three weeks against furious opposition from Alison Redford’s Tories will be a challenge.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....clecontent

[cosmostein]

The only way I can describe what I am seeing out of the Alberta PC's is that they appear to be a deer in headlights.

Their inability to adapt or a seeming lack of understanding as to why the WR folks are doing so well will be the reason they are sitting in opposition in a few weeks.

[hatrock]

Oh please please please don't let the PCs win again!

Anyone who says Redford should be given a chance to govern is missing the point here.

It's not just her lack of leadership, it's difficult to tell where the PCAA ends and the gov't begins. The 50 ongoing illegal donations were "a mistake"? Excuse me? And with privacy laws, we can't track the money. Our democracy in Alberta has been shot. How long has this been going on for?

Anyone who says we shouldn't be voting out the PCs because "40 is enough" is also missing the point. We voted PC in the past because of how conservative it was. But now it's not and is much too engrained into the gov't, especially in light of the 50 illegal donations that we didn't know about before. That means, you know, 30 wasn't enough because we really didn't have a viable alternative before, but at 40 years, the PC party looks tired, and has waivered off course, especially since the last election. We gave Ed a chance, but he didn't deliver. Well, no more chances go to the PCs by default.

Plus, Redford's decisions as premier THUS FAR, have themselves, been wanting. In less than half a year, here's the list of very questionable decisions.

- Appointing big spender Ron Leipert to be Finance Minister

- Bam! $100 million for teachers. Uh, what happened to budgets?

- Deciding that we should pay for powerlines with capacity that my generation's grandkids won't even use

- Toying with the idea of bringing back the health care tax

- Toying with the idea of a sales tax when they bring in more money per capita than any other province. Huh?

- Stupid 0.05 bac law that allows cops to seize property without one having even committed a crime

- KeystoneXL? Where the heck were you on that one, Alison?

- "Let's take a 'caucus' retreat to Jasper Park Lodge paid for by the taxpayer!"

- "Now let's now go around the province on taxpayer dime and rave about how awesome we are! YAY!"

- We should at least talk about raising the drinking age. Yes? Ok. No? Ok, we'll be quiet.

- Health care inquiry? What health care inquiry?

- Gov't bureaucrats toying with the idea of having bar staff COUNT the number of drinks a patron has had and bring in a policy to limit them. This is Alberta, right?

- Total flip flop on the "Money For Nothing" scandal

- Fixed election dates? Uh, sometime between winter and summer. Ok, thanks for narrowing it down.

- "(Hey, although we admit we took illegal donations as a mistake, shame on you Gary Mar for trying to legitimately raise money. Suspension for you!)"

- Announcing $700 million for 140 health care facilities when the current three test ones are under review and while we have a SHORTAGE in not being able to fill the current hospitals. HINT: Work a deal with the feds to bring in foreign immigrant doctors to work in rural communities.

And folks, this is just the beginning with the Redford PCs.

The entire apparatus needs the rug pulled out from underneath.

[RCO]

( another poll has the wildrose way ahead , although i've never heard of this polling company before )

Alberta Election

Wildrose poised for majority in Alberta: poll


josh wingrove AND dawn walton

Lethbridge, Alta. AND Calgary— Globe and Mail Update

Published Tuesday, Apr. 03, 2012 8:43PM EDT




A new poll has put Alberta's Wildrose Party firmly on track for a majority government, holding a 13-point lead over the incumbent Progressive Conservatives who just months ago were a shoo-in for victory.

The poll, conducted by ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. for CTV News, is the latest in a string showing clear patterns: the PCs are sinking, Wildrose is surging and people prefer the Wildrose leader Danielle Smith to PC leader Alison Redford.

More related to this story
•Alison Redford turns to ‘survival politics’ with dynasty slipping away
•The rush to spend Alberta's windfall is on
•In Alberta, parties offer goodies for votes


Video

Rollicking Alberta election campaign underway

“It just continues the trend and it sort of manifests the momentum they’ve had last week,” ThinkHQ pollster Marc Henry said, adding time is running out for Ms. Redford and the PCs. “They’ve got an awfully big hole dug for themselves.”

It leaves Alberta poised to elect a right-wing government in lock-step with the Reform wing of Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, one that will embrace its energy industry, slow spending growth and turn to tax credits and rebates to lower taxes in what is already Canada’s lowest-tax province.

The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday through an online panel of 1,050 respondents and shows the right-wing Wildrose at 43 per cent of decided voters, the PCs at 30, the New Democrats at 12 and the Liberals at 11 per cent province-wide. Of those sampled, 19 per cent were undecided.

Critically, Wildrose leads in every region, including centrist Edmonton, but the libertarian party wasn't picking its cabinet yet, saying there's plenty of campaign left.

“There is strong support for Wildrose across Alberta; obviously there is an appetite for change. That said, the only poll that really counts is the one on April 23rd [election day],” Wildrose campaign spokeswoman Heather Hume said in an e-mail.

Ms. Redford was similarly dismissive, and has repeatedly refused to discuss poll results, which have gone from bad to worse for her party since showing them in a tie on the first day of the campaign. (Staff say she doesn’t actually look at most polls, but she’s asked regularly about their results.)

“I've never commented on polls except to say that election day will be the day when Albertans decide,” she said during a campaign stop in Taber, Alta. “I think what we're going to see, and have seen, is there are ups and downs. It's certainly a volatile time. I think Albertans are quite engaged. I'm pleased to see Albertans are thinking about the long-term policy issues.”

Several issues have driven the poll numbers, but all can basically be traced back to this: Ms. Redford has been campaigning for cosmopolitan Alberta, speaking about big-government issues and complex promises for healthcare, international trade and economic diversification, while Ms. Smith has been campaigning to traditional Alberta, relying on tangible, simple messaging and selling, essentially, a small-government, libertarian conservative option.

While the PCs have been on the defensive during the campaign’s gaffe-filled first week, the Wildrose campaign (run by former Harper advisor Tom Flanagan) has avoided trouble and struck a populist tone - publicly admonishing columnists who disagree with their platform and casting their campaign as an us-against-the-elites underdog for Alberta conservatives.

The PC problems date back to before the campaign, though.

The PCs have coped with a series of controversies, in particular an all-party, PC-led committee that hasn't met since 2008 but paid members $1,000 a month. That issue exploded last month. Since the last election, under the leadership of former premier Ed Stelmach, they quietly voted huge raises for cabinet and ran massive deficits. They were said to have “intimidated” doctors and interfered in the health system.

Ms. Redford, 47, won her party's leadership on Oct. 1 of last year, casting it in a centrist vision for the province in line with that of former Premier Peter Lougheed, who kicked off the PC dynasty in 1971. She has since refused to call a full health inquiry, which she had pledged to do, or set a fixed election date, choosing a three-month fixed election “season” instead. She also clashed with her caucus, and many MLAs decided not to run again with her as leader, leaving the party in a rebirth as it seeks a new mandate. Some MLAs dropped out days or weeks before the campaign began.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le2391311/

[RCO]

Wildrose steams past Tories in southern Alberta, election poll finds


But research reveals north-south voter split



By Darcy Henton, Calgary Herald; With Files From James Wood, Calgary Herald, And The Edmonton Journal.April 5, 2012 6:51 AM


Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith talks to audience members during a campaign stop at Concordia University College of Alberta in Edmonton, on April 4, 2012.

Photograph by: Rick MacWilliam , Edmonton Journal


Danielle Smith and her Wildrose party are surging even farther ahead of Alison Redford's Progressive Conservatives on the campaign trail, but the battle is shaping up to create a north-south provincial split, according to a new poll.

The Leger Marketing survey of 986 voters across Alberta, commissioned by the Calgary Herald and the Edmonton Journal, shows Wildrose has steadily increased its support as the campaign has rolled into its second week.

Among decided voters, Wildrose has 41 per cent of support, while the PCs have 34 per cent. The NDP is polling at 12 per cent, the Liberals at 10 per cent and the Alberta Party at two per cent.

The online survey was conducted between Monday and Wednesday.

The poll found 22 per cent of Albertans say they are undecided. But when asked which party they are leaning toward, undecided voters are almost equally split between the Tories and Wildrose at 18 per cent each, with the other parties well behind.

The poll also shows the Tories continue to lead the Wildrose by a significant margin in Edmonton, but are lagging in Calgary and the rest of the province, where more than half of decided voters are backing the Wildrose.

"If the election splits this way, there will be a real north-south divide in the legislature and that's going to cause some problems," said Leger vice-president Ian Large.

"We certainly see this federally over the years when one party is very, very strong in one region and weak in other regions, those other regions tend to get neglected." said Large.

"It could well exacerbate the Edmonton-Calgary rivalry."

In Edmonton, the Tories lead the Wildrose 37 per cent to 25 per cent, while in Calgary, the Wildrose leads the Tories 47 per cent to 34 per cent.

In the rest of Alberta, 54 per cent of Albertans support the Wildrose compared with 30 per cent for the Tories.

"This doesn't bode well for a representative legislature after April 23," said Large.

"If the vote were tomorrow, it would be a Wildrosedominated government," said Large. "But we're only just halfway through the campaign. There's a lot that can change in 18 days."

The poll, which was ongoing when Smith announced her plan to dole out surplus revenue to Albertans in energy rebate cheques, shows a dramatic increase in support for the Wildrose leader to be premier.

Two months ago, Smith garnered only 14 per cent support when Albertans were asked which leader would make the best premier, while Redford polled at 32 per cent.

Today, Smith leads Redford 29 to 27 in the percentage of support.

"She is proving herself to be a much more credible leader than she was just a couple of months ago," Large added.

The other surprise in the poll is the surge of the NDP in Edmonton. Brian Mason's party has 20 per cent of support among decided voters compared with only seven per cent of support in Calgary and the rest of Alberta.

The Liberals garnered 12 per cent support in Edmonton, 11 per cent in Calgary, and just five per cent outside the two cities.

"The Liberals are not making up any ground in Edmonton," Large said.

"Brian Mason's message may be resonating more than the Liberals'."

More than half of Albertans, when asked if they would prefer to have a new government, said yes, and less than three out of 10 Albertans believe the Conservative government should be re-elected.

The poll suggests Smith gets more support from men (35 per cent) than women (22 per cent), while Redford's popularity is consistent among both men (26 per cent) and women (28 per cent).

Speaking to reporters in Lethbridge early Wednesday, Redford reiterated she doesn't comment on polls, but said recent voter surveys don't match internal Tory polling.

"The information that I've been provided with most recently is quite different," she said.

Redford suggested the PCs are likely to pick up support as Wildrose comes under in-creased scrutiny.

On the campaign trail, Smith continued to downplay the polls, pointing out they are subject to change.

"The numbers we're seeing now won't be the numbers we see on election day," she said.

NDP Leader Mason called the surveys premature. "I don't think this election is about polls, and it's not about personality," he said. "I think it should be about politics and policies."

Liberal Leader Raj Sherman said disgruntled red Tories should jump into the Liberal boat.

"What is apparent is the PC vote is crumbling, and it's time for all progressives to support the Alberta Liberal party."

As a non-random Internet survey, the Leger Marketing poll's margin of error is not reported, but Large said a probability sample of this size would result in a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The margin of error for the regional findings is 5.5 for Edmonton, 5.4 for Calgary, and 5.2 for the rest of Alberta.


Race for votes


"If a provincial election were held today, which political party would you be most likely to vote for?"

DECIDED VOTERS:

Wildrose: 41%

PCs: 34%

NDP: 12%

Liberals: 10%

Alberta Party: 2%

Other: 1%

Source: Leger Marketing online poll of 986 eligible voters across Alberta, April 2-4.


Which leader would make the best premier?

DANIELLE SMITH

29%

ALISON REDFORD

27%

BRIAN MASON

9%

RAJ SHERMAN

7%

GLENN TAYLOR

2%

DON'T KNOW: 24%

NO ANSWER: 2%

Source: Leger Marketing online poll of 986 eligible voters across Alberta, April 2-4. As a non-random online survey, a margin of error isn't reported but a probability sample of this size would results in maximum margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


Do you believe the current PC government should be re-elected or would you prefer to have a new government?

New government: 54%

Re-elected: 29%

Don't know: 17%


DHENTON@CALGARYHERALD.COM

© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald


Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/n.....z1rAf0ssmg

[cosmostein]

Its looking very much like a Wildrose majority

[RCO]

Wildrose in power shift

8:25 am, April 7th, 2012


Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith

Credits: IAN KUCERAK/QMI AGENCY


LORNE GUNTER | QMI AGENCY

For electoral purposes, Alberta can be divided into three regions, Edmonton, Calgary and rural Alberta. Win two of three and you win a majority government. Capture all three and you get a landslide.
If you want to know the state of the Alberta election with two weeks and two days to go, consider that the Wildrose party is far ahead of the Tories in Calgary and the rural regions and in a virtual tie with the government in Edmonton, according to an Abacus Data poll conducted for the Sun News Network among 876 Alberta voters between April 2 and 4.

During much of the Tories' 41-year reign in the province, Calgary and the rural regions have been their power base.

There have been elections - such as the National Energy Program election in 1982 and the 2001 election when the distrusted Chretien Liberals ruled in Ottawa - in which the Tories grabbed all three of Alberta's electoral regions. On those occasions they also grabbed all but a handful of the seats in the legislature.

But since the Tories came to power in 1971, there has never been an election in which they were able to hold on to power using Edmonton as their anchor.

And since in this election Edmonton is the only region in which Premier Alison Redford and her party remain competitive with Wildrose, the Sun News poll leads to just one conclusion: Unless something changes dramatically in the last 16 days of this campaign, the Tories will lose to Wildrose.

The broad numbers in the poll are bleak enough for the Tories. Two weeks into the campaign Wildrose leads province-wide by 12 percentage points, 43% to 31%.

The Tories have picked up three percentage points since the first week of the campaign, most of it at the expense of the Big-L Liberals (which is not at all surprising given how small-l liberal the Tories have become since Redford took over as their leader last October).

That would be good news for the Tories, except that during the second week of the election, Wildrose picked up almost as much support among previously undecided voters.

The Tories may be sucking up Liberal and NDP support as those two parties sink into oblivion, but the Redford government's gains are not helping them catch up to Wildrose, which grabs one undecided voter for every disgruntled Grit or Dipper scooped up by the Tories.

A detailed breakdown of the poll results is even more devastating for Premier Redford and crew.

They are behind in Calgary by 17 percentage points, 44% to 27%. Numbers like that, city-wide, would make it hard for them to hold onto more than four or five seats, if that.

In rural Alberta (which includes Fort McMurray, Lethbridge, Red Deer, Medicine Hat and Grande Prairie), Wildrose's lead is even larger. For instance, in the 12 ridings of Southern Alberta outside Calgary, Wildrose leads by 31 points Ñ 31!

Wildrose leads among women (41 to 33), among men (45 to 29), among middle-aged voters and among voters of all education levels, except those with less than a high-school diploma. (The Tories lead among dropouts.)

On top of that, Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith has a favourability rating of +14, while Redford's is just +1. And voters do not fear that the election of a Wildrose government would mess up the provincial economy. Worry over opposition inexperience is often the one saving grace of a sputtering government.

Sixteen days can be an eternity in politics. Scandals, flubs or bozo eruptions could yet derail Wildrose, just as a stunning performance by Redford in this Thursday's leaders' debate might save the Tories.

But at the halfway point of the Alberta election, you have to like Wildrose's chances.


http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/s.....82545.html