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Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2019 10:40 am    Post subject: 2019 Newfoundland and Labrador General Election Reply with quote

Newfoundland and Labrador will be heading to the polls sometime this year. In 2015 Premier Paul Davis delayed the provincial election until the end of November due to the federal election being held in October. Our elections had been held in October and delaying the provincial election required legislative changes to the fixed date election law. The new law requires the election date to be set by April of the election year and that it can be held early or later in order for it not to interfere with the federal campaign. Dwight Ball has been coy about when he plans to send the province to the polls, basically saying that the election will likely be held this fall but that he doesn't know when the federal Liberals will have their election. He has not ruled out a Spring campaign and there's been much speculation that the election will be held this Spring. After three by-election wins for the PCs it's thought that Ball may want to head to the polls early to prevent the PCs from getting better organized. However, if Ball feels Trudeau is set for a win this fall he may feel like riding Trudeau's coattails and holding the election soon after Trudeau's re-election. Ball's Liberals saw a massive boost in support following Trudeau's 2015 victory and could see another boost if Trudeau is re-elected.

After their by-election win last week the PCs opened nominations in Crosbie's own district and in the PC district of CBS. Those nominations closed earlier this week with the incumbents being acclaimed. The party has since open nominations in Conception Bay East-Bell Island, a district held by former opposition leader David Brazil, and in the Liberal held district of Virginia Waters-Pleasantville. The Liberal MHA for Virginia Waters-Pleasantville was elevated to cabinet late last year, in 2015 he faced off against Ches Crosbie's sister Beth. No word yet on who is seeking that nomination but it could be a competitive race. Tony Wakeham, who ran against Crosbie for leader, has also announced he's running in the west coast district of Stephenville-Port au Port. That seat is also held by the Liberals.

The Liberals and NDP have yet to call nominations. The Liberals hold 27 of the 40 seats in the House of Assembly and I'd be surprised if more than a couple of them announced they weren't seeking re-election. So in the case of the Liberals, they just need to nominate their incumbents. With the exception of the three seats that are now held by former Liberal MHAs turned independents the seats held by the opposition parties aren't really winnable for the Liberals.

Election readiness should start kicking into high gear in the coming months.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As thought, Beth Crosbie was acclaimed as the PC candidate in Virginia Waters-Pleasantville. This will be a seat to watch on election night.
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Beth Crosbie wins PC nomination for Virginia Waters-Pleasantville


David Maher (david.maher@thetelegram.com)

Published: 14 hours ago
Updated: 14 hours ago

Beth Crosbie has won the Tory nomination for Virginia Waters-Pleasantville.


Beth Crosbie, a local real estate agent and sister of PC leader Ches Crosbie, has won the Progressive Conservative nomination in Virginia Waters-Pleasantville.

The PCs announced the closing of nominations for the districts on early Saturday afternoon. Conception Bay East-Bell Island MHA David Brazil also secured the nomination in his district.


Crosbie, a realtor with Coldwell Banker Pro Co., previously ran in the 2015 general election in the same district.

She lost the seat to Liberal Bernard Davis: Davis won 45 per cent of the vote, while Crosbie took 32 per cent. Then-New Democratic Party candidate Bob Buckingham took 22 per cent of the votes cast.

Davis is now Advanced Education, Skills, and Labour minister, a position he took in the November 2018 cabinet shuffle.

The Liberals have yet to call for nominations in the district. While Davis hasn’t confirmed a run for re-election to date, he is expected to run. The NDP also has yet to call for nominations.

The PCs are early out of the gate in calling for candidates for the 2019 general election. Beth Crosbie is the first person not currently holding a seat in the House of Assembly to win the party nomination for the coming general election.

While speculation is circulating about the chances of an early election call, so far Premier Dwight Ball has stated he is planning for a fall election.

PC Leader Ches Crosbie, Windsor Lake MHA, and Conception Bay South MHA Barry Petten have also both been confirmed as the candidates in their respective districts.


https://www.thewesternstar.com/news/beth-crosbie-wins-pc-nomination-for-virginia-waters-pleasantville-281196/
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I haven't really put much though into what provincial elections were looming on the East Coast . with a looming provincial election in Alberta and federal election sometime this year .


in my view an early election would seem unlikely , but you can't really rule anything out . few candidates are nominated yet so the parties have some time to get ready


the pc's have a lot more open nominations to fill and will require more time to find those candidates than the liberals who have more incumbents


if I see any relevant articles on my travels online i'll post them to the thread
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Premier not ruling out spring election

Quote:
Despite a third byelection loss for the provincial Liberals on Thursday night, Premier Dwight Ball says he can't rule out a spring election.

"I'm ready for an election, that I can assure you," Ball said, laughing in front of a noisy crowd.

Thursday's vote in the Topsail-Paradise district, which saw Liberal Patricia Hynes-Coates lose to Progressive Conservative candidate Paul Dinn, is likely the last byelection before a general election sometime later this year.

Speaking to the crowd after learning the results, Ball said his party is already thinking about what to do next.

"We're gonna keep going, we're going to get ready now for a campaign, a general election where it all matters," he said.

Set election date could move

The official date for the next general election in Newfoundland and Labrador is Oct. 8, only a few weeks before the scheduled federal election on Oct. 21.

Election rules in the province allow for a change in the set date if the premier, in the months before voting day, feels the provincial date overlaps with a federal election.

In this case the provincial election would be pushed to the last Monday of November.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said he won't call an early federal election.

PC Leader Ches Crosbie says he wants an early election in Newfoundland and Labrador to avoid any confusion from overlapping federal and provincial campaigns.

Ball says it's too soon to say what will happen.

"What I'm saying right now is we're planning for a fall election," he said. "But right now a lot of this will depend on what the federal government decides, and when they select their election date."

Either way, Crosbie says, his party is ready.

"Ultimately it's his call," he said. "If he thinks we're unprepared and he wants to call an early election, then it may just mean I'll be premier in May."


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/dwight-ball-nl-spring-election-1.4992468
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What is the feeling on the ground PT?

Polling can only give us a snapshot which makes it appear fairly close;
Is that a reality?
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polling has been all over the place for the most part. Mainstreet released one last week showing a tie, with the PCs ahead by a point or so. Others have had the Liberals with a fairly comfortable lead, but still under 10 points which is fairly close for NL. I could see the Liberals being re-elected but there’s so much apathy in the province that it’s hard to tell. I think it could be a close election with candidates making a big difference but I don’t know if the PCs are strong enough outside the Avalon Peninsula to win the seats they need.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Liberals and PCs neck and neck with just months until election

Quote:
It might be a close race between the governing Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives when voters take to the polls later this year, if the results from the latest poll are any indication for the political climate in Newfoundland and Labrador.

MQO Research released its latest quarterly poll on Feb. 6.

From the data they gathered, it suggests after speaking with 600 residents, the Liberals are at 44 per cent support, down three percentage points, while the Tories are at 42 per cent, up seven percentage points since the last quarterly poll.

The New Democrats are down four percentage points, to 12 per cent support of residents polled.

"This is the first time the Tories were above 40 per cent since 2017," Stephen Moore, MQO's vice-president said in an embargoed media release.

"Liberal support was volatile throughout 2017 and then it levelled off in the mid-40s. Tory gains are potentially because of a very weak NDP."

Meanwhile, the number of undecided voters among those polled is steady at 40 per cent.

Moore said that the only part of the province where the Liberals have a firm lead, at least according to MQO's statistics, is in western Newfoundland.

Ratings for Premier Dwight Ball's performance remained more or less unchanged, at around 5.2 out of 10; just slightly up from in October when MQO's survey put approval around 4.6 out of 10.

MQO polled 600 randomly selected eligible voters across the province by telephone from Jan. 16 to Jan. 28. The margin of error for the sample is plus or minus four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/mqo-january-polls-1.5007720
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The PCs have seen some more people announce they're seeking nominations. Former leadership candidate Tony Wakeham is being challenged for the nomination in Stephenville Port au Port by the president of the PC district association Craig Mason. And Brian Pike, a former small-town mayor, is running for the nomination in St. George's Humber. No word on when nominations will open in those seats.

These two districts neighbour each other on the west coast of the island. While the Liberals are still strong on the west coast and their MHAs won these seats with huge majorities in 2015, I'd say these are the seats that the PCs would have their best shot at. While the districts have been reconfigured the PCs held this area for the most part between 2003 and 2015 so getting candidates in place early is wise.

Still no word from the other parties on nominating candidates.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The PCs have opened nominations in two more Liberal-held districts; St. John’s West and Bonavista. St. John’s Weat is held by Natural Resources Minister and former MP Siobhan Coady. While she easily won last time she secured less than 50% of the vote and faced off against former cabinet minister Dan Crummell and NDP leader Earle McCurdy. If the NDP don’t run a prominent candidate it could be more competitive , especially with the PCs up and the Liberals down. Dan Crummell served as Crosbie’s CoS for a while but was let go, not sure how their relationship is now so I don’t see him running. He only served one term in the House.

They also opened nominations in Bonavista. Liberals easily won this seat last time too but the area was formally represented by the PCs. Nominations close February 9.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Two more PC candidates acclaimed today. Craig Pardy, a local mayor, has been nominated in Bonavista. And in St. John's West the PCs have nominated Shane Skinner. Shane's father Shawn was a minister in the Williams and Dunderdale governments. Shawn is still quite active in the party and nearly launched a leadership bid following the resignation of Dunderdale. He represented the neighbouring district of St. John's Centre but with boundary changes there is definitely some overlap.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Who’s running in Newfoundland and Labrador's 2019 general election?


David Maher (david.maher@thetelegram.com)

Published: 3 hours ago


There will likely be many familiar faces seated in the chairs of the House of Assembly after the next provincial general election. - SaltWire Network


Survey of sitting MHAs shows a lot of familiar faces will be on the ballot

ST. JOHN'S, N.L. — The 2019 general election — whenever it falls — will see a lot of familiar names on the ballot with a few key question marks.

The Telegram reached out to each sitting Member of the House of Assembly (MHA) individually regarding their plans to run in the coming provincial election.

Liberals

Dwight Ball

For the Liberals, all current MHAs have indicated they intend to seek the Liberal nomination in their respective districts. The nomination process has yet to formally begin for the Liberals to date, but it’s expected the process will get going in the coming weeks.

When it comes to prospective candidates, former New Democratic Party (NDP) MHA George Murphy, former St. John’s city councilor Jonathan Galgay, and Topsail-Paradise candidate Patricia Hynes-Coates have each previously indicated their intention to seek Liberal nominations for the coming election.


Tories

The Progressive Conservatives (PC) Party has already started naming candidates for the coming election.

Windsor Lake MHA Ches Crosbie, Conception Bay South MHA Barry Petten, and Conception Bay East-Bell Island MHA David Brazil have each been formally placed as the PC candidates for the election.

Topsail-Paradise MHA Paul Dinn has indicated he will seek re-election after his victory on Jan. 24.

Ches Crosbie

Beth Crosbie has already been named the PC candidate for Virginia Waters-Pleasantville. On Saturday, the party announced George’s Brook-Milton Mayor Craig Pardy had won the nomination in Bonavista and Shane Skinner — son of former PC cabinet minister Shawn Skinner — will represent the party in St. John’s West.

Former PC leadership candidate Tony Wakeham has indicated he plans to seek the PC nomination in St. George’s-Humber.

Ferryland MHA Keith Hutchings, Cape St. Francis MHA Kevin Parsons, and Fortune Bay-Cape la Hune MHA Tracey Perry did not confirm their intentions to seek re-election by deadline.

Hutchings is the most senior member of the Tory bench, first being elected in February 2007. Parsons and Perry are the second and third most senior Tory MHAs, with Perry becoming an MHA in October 2007 and Parsons in September 2008.

A spokesperson for the PC caucus stated the intention to have all nominations for the party’s MHAs completed by the end of February, but noted the decision to seek a nomination for any party is an “individual” decision.


No commitment from NDP’s Rogers or Michael

When it comes to the NDP, things are a little less clear.

Gerry Rogers

Neither Leader MHA Gerry Rogers (St. John’s Centre) nor St. John’s East-Quidi Vidi MHA Lorraine Michael would confirm whether they plan to seek re-election.

NDP Party president Lynn Moore stated the party is “operating under the assumption” that both MHAs plan to run, but when contact directly, neither would make a commitment.

Rogers would only state that the nomination process for the party is underway. In an email, Michael stated “discussions about candidates, including incumbents, is part of that planning and timeline.”

Michael was first elected in 2006 and served as party leader from then until March 2015 when Earle McCurdy briefly became party leader and served on an interim basis until Rogers’ election as leader.

Michael, who is approaching her 76th birthday, also went through a bout with breast cancer in 2016, but indicated a full recovery since that time.

As for other prospective NDP candidates, former leadership candidate Allison Coffin and Windsor Lake candidate Kerri Claire Neil have both stated their intention to be on the ballot for the NDP in the coming election.


Independents

When it comes to the independents, both Mount Pearl-Southlands MHA Paul Lane and Humber-Bay of Islands MHA Eddie Joyce have stated they intend to seek re-election. Lane hasn’t made up his mind on which party’s ballot he will appear on, but indicated he’ll either run as an independent, for the PCs, or for Graydon Pelley’s Newfoundland and Labrador Alliance — which has yet to receive party status with Elections NL. Joyce has previously indicated he will run as an independent, with no interest in returning to the Liberal bench.

Independent Mount Scio MHA Dale Kirby is another question mark.

Kirby, along with Joyce, had to apologize to the House of Assembly in November 2018 after investigations into five complaints about their behaviour as MHAs turned up one Code of Conduct violation each. Kirby did not respond to multiple requests for comment for this story.

One thing to consider for all incumbent MHAs is severance pay. Currently, each MHA elected before November 30 who resigns, retires, or is defeated is eligible for severance. That means should Kirby, for example, run and be defeated, he will get a severance payment equal to 81 per cent of his salary, calculated for each month served as an MHA that year.

Those elected on or after November 30, 2015 are not eligible for any severance pay, should they lose their seat in the coming election.

The Telegram will be keeping an ongoing list of confirmed candidates for the coming provincial election located at this story’s on thetelegram.com.


https://www.thewesternstar.com/news/whos-running-in-newfoundland-and-labradors-2019-general-election-283248/
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

George’s Brook-Milton Mayor files PC party nomination papers for Bonavista district




Jonathan Parsons (jonathan.parsons@thepacket.ca)

Published: Feb 08 at 4:15 p.m.
Updated: Feb 08 at 4:20 p.m.


Craig Pardy looks to run in upcoming provincial election


GEORGE’S BROOK-MILTON, N.L.

Craig Pardy, current mayor of George’s Brook-Milton, is throwing his hat into the ring to run as a PC candidate in the District of Bonavista in the upcoming provincial election.


Pardy released the news of his intention this week. The period for filing nomination papers for potential candidates opened for the Bonavista district on Thursday, Feb. 7. The period for accepting nominations ends on Saturday, Feb. 9 at noon.

Pardy was elected mayor of George’s Brook-Milton last spring, after the town was incorporated as the newest municipality in the province. Pardy served as chairman of the local service district committee for the community prior to it becoming a town.

Pardy, who is originally a Catalina native and has lived and worked from George’s Brook-Milton for decades, told The Packet he informed council of his decision to attempt a run at provincial politics.

He says, depending on the result of the nomination effort, he will likely have to take a leave from council on his path to seeking the provincial representation for the district.

“I desire to stay working with the group and we’ll see what next week brings,” said Pardy.

There will be a scheduled council meeting this Tuesday, at which time the matter will be addressed.

He adds that dealing with municipal politics for the past four or five years have piqued his interest in “broadening the perspective,” and trying for a post in provincial politics.

Liberal MHA Neil King is the current representative for the Bonavista district, having won the election in November 2015 over incumbent PC Glen Little.

The Packet will have more on local contenders for districts in the region as that information becomes available.


https://www.thetelegram.com/news/regional/georges-brook-milton-mayor-files-pc-party-nomination-papers-for-bonavista-district-282904/
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Following that Telegram article there’s questions about what the future holds for NDP leader Gerry Rogers. She nor the NDP would confirm that she is seeking re-election. Rogers was only elected leader a year ago. Her and former leader Lorraine Michael, who many expect won’t run, are the only two NDP MHAs.

http://ntv.ca/no-concrete-answ.....ion-plans/
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gerry Rogers making announcement on political future with Newfoundland and Labrador NDP


The Western Star
Published: 24 minutes ago




ST. JOHN'S, N.L. — Provincial NDP leader Gerry Rogers has invited media to Confederation Building this morning for an announcement on her political future.

There’s a question as to whether Rogers, first elected as the MHA for St. John’s Centre in 2001 and made leader of the party on April 8, 2018, will stay on as the party’s leader.


Just last week, when asked by The Telegram if she would seek re-election in this year’s general election, Rogers would not confirm, stating only that the NDP nomination process is underway.


https://www.thewesternstar.com/news/gerry-rogers-making-announcement-on-political-future-with-newfoundland-and-labrador-ndp-283692/
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2019 Newfoundland and Labrador General Election

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