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cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

At this point if Singh doesn't win this by-election with more than 50% of the popular vote it would be surprising.
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

York-Simcoe byelection candidates set to challenge Tory stronghold

York-Simcoe will have a new MP following Feb. 25 vote

News Jan 16, 2019 by Heidi Riedner  Georgina Advocate|


Voters in York-Simcoe will head back to the polls Feb. 25, after the riding was one of three federal byelections called by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Jan. 9.

Three months after municipal elections, and six months before a general federal election in October, voters will decide on a new federal MP in the riding — long considered a Tory stronghold, held for the past 14 years by Conservative MP and former cabinet minister Peter Van Loan before his retirement from politics last September.

On the heels of the announcement, Georgina resident and Conservative candidate Scot Davidson said that he plans on working hard to ensure the riding remains Tory blue in the byelection and that the Conservatives come to power in October.


Davidson, who has owned and operated numerous companies during the span of his career — but is most known as the owner of the former Bonnie Boats marina in Jackson’s Point — has stated that small business is a main pillar in his campaign, which also includes support of the Hwy. 400-404 connecting link.


Davidson is up against Liberal candidate Shaun Tanaka of Sharon, and the NDP’s Jessa McLean of Sutton.

Both say that they are determined to present voters a viable alternative to the Conservatives and a fresh perspective on the issues.

“I’ll be working hard to earn every single vote, so together we can strengthen our middle class, grow our local economy and offer real help to families,” said Tanaka on the heels of her party’s nomination Jan. 12.

The mother of twin boys who operates a business with her husband, Sean, also teaches geography courses at both Queen's University and the University of Toronto; Tanaka's volunteer efforts include the Sharon Temple Museum Society, East Gwillimbury Public Library, National Association of Japanese Canadians and the Maytree Foundation (a charitable organization committed to reducing poverty and inequality in Canada).

This is the second go-around at federal politics for Tanaka, who posted the riding’s strongest showing against Van Loan in the last federal election in 2015 — receiving 26 per cent of the vote, behind Van Loan’s 50 per cent.

Despite the fact that Tanaka lost by more than 6,000 votes, she did manage to increase the party’s vote in the riding by 400 per cent, planting the seeds of the possibility of a “Liberal upset” in the riding.


NDP candidate Jessa McLean — who was acclaimed at the party’s nomination meeting Dec. 6 — says that February's byelection is an opportunity for people “to choose the representation they deserve, the representation the working class needs and our environment needs.”

McLean says that she is determined to reshape conversations on the campaign trail, and provide new alternatives to pressing issues.

“I will work tirelessly to champion bold new possibilities to eliminate poverty, ensure fair taxation, end our reliance on fossil fuels, and finally complete the mission of universal health care by making sure everyone has access to essential medications.”


Having previously worked as co-ordinator for a forensic engineering firm, McLean has been active as a community organizer, most recently with the “$15 and Fairness” campaign.


https://www.yorkregion.com/news-story/9124997-york-simcoe-byelection-candidates-set-to-challenge-tory-stronghold/
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
At this point if Singh doesn't win this by-election with more than 50% of the popular vote it would be surprising.




true but still a lot of unanswered questions about these by elections


first one is will the liberals even run a candidate in Burnaby South and if so who ?



what happened to the green party ? we've known for some time they weren't going to contest Burnaby South but campaigns in the other 2 ridings seem non existent and don't think they even have a candidate in York Simcoe


who is the People's party candidate in Outremont ? and will they actually target that riding at all ?



who is the Bloc Quebecois running in Outremont ? a weak BQ would seem to benefit the ndp campaign in that riding although it may not matter much this year . whats interesting is BQ was getting 30% of the vote in Outremont until the ndp surged and they fell to less than 10%
RCO





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PostPosted: Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

February byelections ripe with political intrigue

By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Jan 18, 2019 3:30pm


NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is seeking his first seat in the House in the Feb. 25 byelection in Burnaby South. iPolitics/Matthew Usherwood


The three byelections called for Feb. 25 represent the final test at the polls for the major federal parties before the fall general election, with the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP all in the hunt for one or more seats.

For some observers, byelections are overly scrutinized by pundits and journalists, desperate to spot trends and build narratives. The votes, after all, are held in one or a handful of ridings, and typically only draw a fraction of the turnout seen in a general election. It seems unfair to draw conclusions from the votes of a few thousand in a country of more than 36 million.

But that’s where next month’s votes may differ.

On a purely geographic basis, you could hardly have picked a more enticing set of ridings. Burnaby South is located in Metro Vancouver, while Outremont covers a swath of central Montreal. Montreal and Vancouver are the second- and third-most populated metro areas in Canada, respectively, and thus, are always hotly contested by the major parties.

And the other riding, York—Simcoe, is located on the periphery of the Greater Toronto Area — Canada’s most populated and commercially important city.

Now granted, the voting history and demographics of the ridings make them less than ideal sample areas. York—Simcoe is a Tory stronghold, while Outremont will all but certainly be claimed by the NDP or Liberals. Burnaby South is the only pure three-way race of the bunch.

But still, the votes offer a rare chance to poll Canadians living in the country’s three largest battlegrounds.

Then there’s the potential for leadership drama.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh maintains he’ll still carry the party’s banner into the 2019 vote, even if he loses his bid to win a House seat in Burnaby South. However, reclaiming momentum will be a huge endeavour for him if he doesn’t emerge victorious come Feb. 25.

It may be a bit unfair to label the vote a do-or-die moment for Singh’s political future, considering NDPer Kennedy Stewart won the riding by only 500 votes in 2015, but it’s no doubt a symptom of lagging polling numbers for the party.

Fortunately for Singh, Karen Wang left, then tried to re-enter the race this week, but ultimately failed.

Wang resigned as the Liberal candidate in the riding on Wednesday after making racist comments on a Chinese-language social media app. In a since-deleted post, Wang said she was the only “Chinese candidate” in the race, while Singh was “of Indian descent.” Amid the uproar, she resigned and the Liberals rebuked her for her comments. But a day later, she tried to rescind the resignation, only to be turned down by the party. (Elections Canada had also already accepted her resignation as a candidate.)

So maybe Singh might not have a Liberal opponent. That would likely mean he’ll take the riding, and earn a place in the House.

Or maybe the Liberals will nominate someone else, a star candidate that could resurrect their chances. The Tories, putting forward Jay Shin, also can’t be discounted here, either.

Meanwhile, Outremont is seen by many pollsters as an easy pickup for the Liberals. The most compelling reason to watch may be to gauge the resiliency of the NDP vote, as it may portend how the party will fare in Quebec in the fall.

The riding was seen as a Liberal bastion for decades before Thomas Mulcair pulled it into the NDP fold in a 2007 byelection. He resigned this summer to accept a teaching position.

Mulcair was the NDP’s leader from 2012 to 2017. He lost a confidence vote as leader of the party at the 2016 convention after bringing the NDP to a third-place performance in the 2015 federal election.

Rachel Bendayan is once again running for the Liberals in Outremont, after coming within 10 points of Mulcair in the 2015 race. After the election, she served as chief of staff to Bardish Chagger when the latter was minister of Small Business and Tourism.

Julia Sanchez will try to hold the seat for the NDP, while Jasmine Louras will represent the Tories. Green Party deputy leader Daniel Green will also run in the riding.

After taking 59 seats there in 2011, the NDP is struggling in most polls in Quebec, and could lose a sizable chunk of its caucus there if it doesn’t rebound.

York—Simcoe has been held for the past 14 years by Harper-era House leader Peter Van Loan, who resigned last fall. He got 50 per cent of the vote in 2015, beating Liberal Shaun Tanaka, who received 26 per cent, and the NDP’s Sylvia Gerl, who got 10 per cent.

In February’s byelection, Tanaka, a university geography professor, will run against business owner Scot Davidson of the Conservatives and workers’-rights advocate Jessa McLean of the NDP.

Pollster Quito Maggi told iPolitics that Tanaka is “very popular locally,” and credited her with making the 2015 race closer than it had been in recent elections. He said the Liberals “might be able to pull off” the upset because of Tanaka’s popularity and the struggles of the federal NDP, whose vote tumbled by half in last month’s byelection in Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes. Don’t read too much into that result, though, as the NDP has historically never performed well in eastern Ontario.

But who knows, maybe York—Simcoe proves to be the surprise of the night in what could be the most exciting slate of byelections in recent years.


https://ipolitics.ca/article/february-byelections-ripe-with-political-intrigue/
RCO





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PostPosted: Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( news just broke of a new liberal candidate in Burnaby South , Richard Lee a long time BC liberal mla for the same area . since this news is so new , not really sure how it effects the race but Singh could face a stronger challenge from this new candidate than Wang )



Emily Lazatin‏ @EmilyLazatin · 4m4 minutes ago


 More

#BREAKING:

Federal Liberal Party says @Richard_T_Lee will be the new candidate for Burnaby South.

Lee replaces Karen Wang who dropped out of the race following a controversial social media post.

Lee served as MLA for Burnaby North from 2001-17.
RCO





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PostPosted: Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ex-B.C. Green candidate says he's running as a Burnaby South independent


Chris Campbell / Burnaby Now
January 18, 2019 09:39 AM


valentine wu

Valentine Wu ran unsuccessfully in the 2017 provincial election. NOW FILE PHOTO




A former B.C. Green Party candidate says he is now running as an independent in the Burnaby South byelection.

Valentine Wu, who garnered 13 per cent of the Burnaby-Edmonds vote in the 2017 provincial election, announced his candidacy on Twitter on Thursday.


“I here announce that I am working to run as Independent Candidate at Burnaby South,” read the tweet.

Subsequent tweets said he was working to get the required 100 signatures from Burnaby South residents.


“Just home after visiting 7 families for signatures,” he tweeted. “Some waiting on the couch with pajamas.”

Wu was named as a candidate for the Burnaby Greens in the lead-up to the 2018 civic election, but pulled his name from contention. The federal Green party decided to not run a candidate against federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.


Wu has been an ardent critic of the Liberal Party of Canada’s refugee program. He would like to see a review conducted.

“I believe current refugee policies need to be reviewed at least,” Wu wrote in a Jan. 10 tweet, responding to an article in which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau defending Canada’s refugee program. “Canadian lives are more important than your political & economic interests!”

Wu has told the NOW previously that he is close with the family of Marissa Shen, who was murdered in Burnaby’s Central Park in July of 2017. A Syrian refugee has been charged with her murder and is awaiting trial.

In another Jan. 10 tweet, Wu addressed Trudeau directly: “Why so defensive? I think those ppl who criticize u r actually helping u to keep ur job. Improve refugee & immigration policies so that Canadians can still feel safe & comfortable. If the girl killed is ur daughter, will u talk like this?”

In a NOW questionnaire sent to 2017 provincial election candidates, Wu wrote about why he would make a great MLA: “Listen to people, take actions for people, fight for the public interest, especially working class.”


https://www.burnabynow.com/news/ex-b-c-green-candidate-says-he-s-running-as-a-burnaby-south-independent-1.23604981
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A Chinese Canadian? Do you still expect Singh to waltz home with more than 50% of the vote?

A little background ... Chinese people, in general, would see nothing out of line in Ms Wang's remarks. In China, all foreigners are pretty much the same. There are white foreigners, black foreigners, and Indians. They think Indians smell bad.

They aren't remarkable for their sensitivity to other cultures. Just the opposite, in fact.

Can you generalize that to Chinese Canadians? Probably not, but it's where they are coming from. The point is that I think we overestimate that. We would be unrealistic to assume that Chinese Canadians share our distaste for racist thinking (unless it applies to white males).
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( haven't seen any high profile leader visits to the by elections yet , Scheer's first visit is perhaps a surprise . into Outremont a riding in Montreal the cpc has not been competitive in for a very long time )






A Pʀᴏᴜᴅ Jᴇᴡ‏ @ImAProudJew · 8h8 hours ago

Meet @JasmineLouras and the Next Prime Minister of Canada @AndrewScheer on Monday Jan. 21 at the Conservative Campaign Office in Outremont 5210 Parc Ave between 5PM - 7PM
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
A Chinese Canadian? Do you still expect Singh to waltz home with more than 50% of the vote?

A little background ... Chinese people, in general, would see nothing out of line in Ms Wang's remarks. In China, all foreigners are pretty much the same. There are white foreigners, black foreigners, and Indians. They think Indians smell bad.

They aren't remarkable for their sensitivity to other cultures. Just the opposite, in fact.

Can you generalize that to Chinese Canadians? Probably not, but it's where they are coming from. The point is that I think we overestimate that. We would be unrealistic to assume that Chinese Canadians share our distaste for racist thinking (unless it applies to white males).



the outcome is once again in doubt


although Singh in theory should have an advantage as he's been campaigning in the riding for months ( but has been unable to shake the question marks which always seem to surround his leadership )

and the liberal candidate is just entering the race , he doesn't even have signs yet or an official candidate

but the vote isn't until Feb 25 so there is still time to run a campaign in the riding


and Richard lee is perhaps better known locally than Singh in the riding
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2019 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NDP taking ‘nothing for granted’ in Burnaby South as top Hill staffers, B.C. MPs working to get Singh elected

By Laura Ryckewaert Jan. 21, 2019


The federal NDP may be having fundraising woes, but the Burnaby South riding association was the party’s best fundraiser overall in Canada in 2017.


NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, pictured last year on Parliament Hill. The federal party is putting a concerted effort into winning the byelection race in Burnaby South, B.C., where Mr. Singh is seeking a seat, on Feb. 25. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade

The NDP is drawing on support from top Hill staffers, B.C. NDP MPs, and party resources “all over the Lower Mainland” to get NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh elected in the February byelection in Burnaby South, NDP MPs and strategists say.

The byelection is considered critical to the party’s overall fortunes and Mr. Singh wants to get a seat in the House before the federal election in October.

The recent dropping-out of the Liberal candidate Karen Wang in Burnaby South was initially a boon to Mr. Singh’s all-important byelection bid, but the Liberals announced over the weekend another new Grit candidate to replace Ms. Wang, former B.C. MLA Richard Lee.

The NDP said it’s taking nothing for granted and is putting a concerted effort into its campaign.


“Our strategy is not changing. Our strategy is still focused on talking to as many people as possible,” said James Smith, who has taken leave from his role as a senior communications adviser for the NDP on the Hill to handle media and communications for Mr. Singh’s campaign. He relocated to Burnaby as of Jan. 4 in anticipation of the official writ drop.

“The support that we’re feeling is getting us excited, that’s given us a big bump. I don’t think anybody celebrates what’s happened [last week], we want to move towards a politics that brings people together, that doesn’t divide us along the lines of race,” said Mr. Smith after Ms. Wang dropped out, but before the Liberals had announced their new candidate.

The Liberals dropped Ms. Wang as a candidate on Jan. 17 amid backlash over Chinese-language comments she made in a WeChat post urging people to support her as the only Chinese candidate, highlighting that Mr. Singh is of Indian descent. She has since signalled she may run as an Independent.

Mr. Lee served as the MLA for Burnaby North from 2001 until he was defeated in 2017.


Mr. Singh announced his decision to seek a seat in the House of Commons in Burnaby South, B.C. in August, after former NDP MP Kennedy Stewart signalled his own intent to run for mayor of Vancouver, a role he now holds.

Mr. Stewart’s resignation was official as of Sept. 14, but despite much anticipation, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) didn’t officially call a byelection in the riding until Jan. 9. The vote in Burnaby South will take place on Feb. 25, at the same time as byelections in York-Simcoe, Ont. and Outremont, Que. While the latter is former NDP leader Thomas Mulcair’s old seat, the Burnaby South race is widely seen as the one to watch.


Mr. Singh pictured speaking to media on Jan. 9, alongside his wife, Gurkiran Kaur Sidhu, and NDP MPs Jenny Kwan, Don Davies, and Peter Julian. Photograph courtesy of Twitter

It’s not historically atypical for an NDP leader to wait to seek a seat in the House of Commons—the late Jack Layton, for example, also then a rookie to federal politics, was elected leader in January 2003, and didn’t run until the June 2004 federal election—but Mr. Singh, a former Brampton-area Ontario NDP MPP, has been oft criticized as being out of touch with the realm, and issues, of federal politics.

The upcoming byelection in Burnaby South has been described as make-or-break for the new leader, with observers declaring that “failure is not an option” in the race. Some voices, including Mr. Mulcair, have suggested Mr. Singh should resign as NDP leader should he lose the race.


“I expect that they [the party] know that failure is not an option. So they will do everything they can to ensure a Jagmeet Singh victory. They probably will end up doing more than they need to do to win. But they cannot take anything for granted,” former NDP national director Karl Bélanger told The Hill Times.

Mr. Bélanger said the party still can’t afford to take the seat for granted, “but there is no question that the Liberals’ mishaps in Burnaby South are good news.”


https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/01/21/ndp-taking-nothing-granted-burnaby-south-despite-recent-boon-liberal-drop/184439
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2019 9:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( a cold winter by election brings out unusual requests , campaign signs on ice huts on lake simcoe ? )



Scot Davidson York Simcoe‏ @teamdavidson3 · 18h18 hours ago


Out this morning talking with members of the Chippewas of Georgina Island First Nation. While on the lake, some supporters even asked for signs for their fish huts! #scotdavidson #yorksimcoe #cpc
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( Scheer appears to have visited Outremont for a reasonably well attended campaign launch with many quebec cpc mp's, considering the party has not done well in Montreal for some time )



Alain Rayes‏Verified account @AlainRayes · 27m27 minutes ago


Ouverture du local de @JasmineLouras dans Outremont. Très heureux d’être avec mon chef @AndrewScheer, @PierrePaulHus, @gerarddeltell et @Alupa_Clarke #polcan #beaucoupdemonde @PCC_HQ


Translated from French by Microsoft


Opening of the premises of @JasmineLouras in Outremont. Very happy to be with my leader @AndrewScheer, @PierrePaulHus, @gerarddeltell and @Alupa_Clarke #polcan #beaucoupdemonde @PCC_HQ
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2019 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Liberals should win Outremont by miles;
However even in the context of a by-election the amount of support the CPC secures will gives some indication of if this rise to second place in Quebec has merit.

The CPC should finish a distant third but the gap between them and the NDP in second should be important or best case even in second (even with a massive gap to the LPC candidate) it lends some credibility to the CPC getting consideration in Quebec.
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
The Liberals should win Outremont by miles;
However even in the context of a by-election the amount of support the CPC secures will gives some indication of if this rise to second place in Quebec has merit.

The CPC should finish a distant third but the gap between them and the NDP in second should be important or best case even in second (even with a massive gap to the LPC candidate) it lends some credibility to the CPC getting consideration in Quebec.



the conservatives have historically got around 10 % of the vote in Outremont with the exception of 84 and 88 when pc supported surged in quebec .

realistically I'd expect them to stay around the 10 % level this by election


although it depends what the ndp does and what % of there past vote stays ndp


we also don't know who the BQ or People's Party candidates will be and considering they'd both be getting such late starts , I'm starting to suspect both will do poorly anyways


note the People's Party candidate is apparently waiting for workplace approval to take a leave during the by election which is why they've not been announced yet
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Outremont would be realistically low on the cpc target list in Montreal , really its getting some attention only cause of the by election


other Montreal ridings are obviously more likely to vote cpc


looking thru Mont Royal , the cpc got 35 % of the vote in 2011 and 37 % in 2015 , but what gives me more reason to be optimistic there

is the liberal won in 2015 mostly cause of the surge in liberal votes/voter turnout which took place all over


the cpc candidate got 18,201 votes in 2015 , but in 2011 the liberal won with only 16,000 votes ( so the cpc vote total from 2015 would of won the riding in 2011 )

so perhaps there could be enough cpc votes there to one day elect an mp
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3 Federal By Elections on February 25

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