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RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the by election polls are just about to open , we will soon find out who the winner is . too bad were only having the 1 by election today , should of really been having at least 2 others instead of having to wait months for them )



By-election day in Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes


Josh Pringle, CTV Morning Live
Published Monday, December 3, 2018 3:59AM EST
Last Updated Monday, December 3, 2018 5:22AM EST


Voters in Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes head to the polls today in a Federal by-election.

The by-election is being held to fill the seat left vacant following the death of Conservative MP Gord Brown. He passed away in May after suffering a heart attack in his Parliament Hill office.

There are five candidates on the ballot in the by-election:



• Michael Barrett, Conservative Party of Canada
• May Jean McFall, Liberal Party of Canada
• Lorraine Rekmans, Green Party of Canada
• Michelle Taylor, New Democratic Party
• John the Engineer Turmel, Independent

Polls will be open from 8:30 a.m. to 8:30 p.m. You can find out where to vote on the Elections Canada website.


https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/by-election-day-in-leeds-grenville-thousand-islands-and-rideau-lakes-1.4201899
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tories retain Eastern Ontario seat in byelection

By Charlie Pinkerton. Published on Dec 3, 2018 10:04pm


Conservative Michael Barrett has won the byelection in Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes. Photo courtesy of Facebook


The Conservatives successfully retained a rural Eastern Ontario seat in a byelection Monday, fending off a spirited challenge from the former chief of staff to the federal agriculture minister.

Michael Barrett, a former Canadian Armed Forces member and municipal councillor, was leading with roughly 59 per cent of the vote in the riding of Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and the Rideau Lakes as of 10:02 p.m. local time, with 60 per cent of the polls reporting. Liberal Mary Jean McFall was sitting in second with 34 per cent, while candidates for the NDP and Green Party, as well as independent candidate, collectively captured just under seven per cent of the vote. The unofficial voter turnout sits at 19 per cent.

The riding was previously represented by Conservative Gord Brown, who passed away in May. He represented the riding and its antecedents since 2004. In 2000, Brown unsuccessfully ran as the Canadian Alliance candidate, falling to then-Liberal MP Joe Jordan by less than 100 votes.

Barrett, a councillor for the township of Edwardsburgh/Cardinal, previously served as president and CEO of the riding’s Conservative association

The seat is the 11th contested in a byelection under Justin Trudeau’s tenure as prime minister that has been retained by the incumbent party. The Liberals had flipped two seats from the Conservatives in byelections under Trudeau, while the Conservatives won a Liberal-held riding in Quebec.

Several Liberal MPs and government staff lent a hand for McFall in the lead-up to the vote, either visiting the riding or calling voters on her behalf. Staff from 13 ministries posted on Twitter about making calls for McFall, while at least eight sitting MPs, including Trudeau, visited the riding during the campaign.

At least five sitting Conservative MPs, including party leader Andrew Scheer, visited the riding to campaign for Barrett.

McFall served as Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay’s chief of staff before stepping down to run in the byelection. She’s a lawyer by training and her family owns Burnbrae Farms, one of the largest egg producers in the country. She’s also served as a local councillor in Brockville and was named Brockville’s Citizen of the Year ten years ago.


As a member of MacAulay’s staff, McFall was required to use a conflict of interest screen because of her family’s ownership of Burnbrae. McFall also sought election in the riding in 2015, where she lost by roughly seven points to Brown.

Michelle Taylor, who ran for the Ontario New Democrats just months ago, was the NDP candidate in the riding. Lorraine Rekmans, a long-time Indigenous Green Party member and Kemptville businesswoman, was the Green candidate in the riding. No Green Party or NDP candidate has ever won the seat in the riding, or any of the various iterations of the federal riding. Notorious serial candidate John “The Engineer” Turmel, who owns the record for most electoral defeats in Canada’s history, ran as an independent.


https://ipolitics.ca/2018/12/03/tories-retain-eastern-ontario-seat-in-byelection/
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( turnout was much lower than 2015 and it seems more liberals and ndp voters didn't bother to show up when compared to previous conservative voters . the cpc win wasn't exactly a surprise although the liberals did attempt to run a serious campaign in the riding .

the ndp are clearly in deep trouble , 3 % is often what we'd expect from fringe parties in such a riding. its likely cause of there financial issues they choose to sit this one out and candidate was given few resources )


Conservatives win eastern Ontario by-election

Parliament Hill

Josh Pringle, CTV Morning Live
Published Monday, December 3, 2018 3:59AM EST
Last Updated Tuesday, December 4, 2018 3:07AM EST


The Conservatives have held on to the seat in Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes.

Conservative Michael Barrett won the Federal by-election, receiving 57.8% of the vote. Liberal candidate Mary Jean McFall finished in second place, with 35.8% of the vote.

The by-election was called to fill the seat left vacant following the death of Conservative MP Gord Brown. He passed away in May after suffering a heart attack in his Parliament Hill office.


Elections Canada says voter turnout for the by-election was 35.9%.


https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/conservatives-win-eastern-ontario-by-election-1.4201899
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

These are very interesting results, but for me what is striking is (1) the low turnout, and (2) the distribution of the turnout.

Put it this way -- the Conservatives got 61.2% of the vote they got in the regular election. The Liberals only got 45.6%, and the NDP got a sad 18.7% of the vote they got in the last election.

That is a pattern that the Liberals will have to deal with to win. The low-commitment Liberals are turned off by what had previously turned them on. The NDP is in "why bother" zone. (The candidate and the budget might have affected this.)

The stage is set.
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
These are very interesting results, but for me what is striking is (1) the low turnout, and (2) the distribution of the turnout.

Put it this way -- the Conservatives got 61.2% of the vote they got in the regular election. The Liberals only got 45.6%, and the NDP got a sad 18.7% of the vote they got in the last election.

That is a pattern that the Liberals will have to deal with to win. The low-commitment Liberals are turned off by what had previously turned them on. The NDP is in "why bother" zone. (The candidate and the budget might have affected this.)

The stage is set.



turnout is typically low for by elections , this one occurring in the winter , in the lead up to the holidays may have also hurt

the conservative base was also much more likely to vote than anyone else , in this riding there is lots of older and retired people , they actually come out in large numbers for by elections


another factor which may have hurt the liberals, ndp and greens was the lack of college/university students voting , it occurred when they were out of the riding and at school so few would of voted unlike 2015 when the advance polls occurred during the thanksgiving weekend and many voted in home ridings


I think the ndp also had long planned to sit this one out and instead focus on Outremont and Burnaby South which they had originally though would all occur on the same day until trudeau decided to only call 1 . so they had never really put much though or focus into the by election
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

whats also interesting is we've now seen the cpc win 2 by elections in Eastern Canada by huge margins which completely went against current polling


first we had the Chicoutimi by election where the conservative candidate won with 52 % of the vote in a riding that had not been tory in decades . even though polls for quebec had consistently been showing a large liberal lead for some time


and now we have Leeds Grenville where the cpc candidate won with 58 % of the vote even though there were polls released only this month claiming a 10 % liberal lead in Ontario

so either something about the polls in not accurate or both these ridings were located in places so far away from the mainstream urban areas ( Toronto/montreal ) that those polls don't mean much in small local contests
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

These results confirm the disenchantment most Canadians on the left feel for their choices.

The Conservatives aren't much different, except they are held together by their desire to get rid of the happy-talking Trudeau, who is embarrassing. They come out to stop the stupidity, rather than in support of any of Andrew's compromise solutions.

The polls tell us that there isn't very much vote-changing going on. The reason -- there's so little leadership on the opposition side. Singh isn't even in the House, and Scheer isn't doing that much better than him ... what does that tell you?

Lukewarm supporters of the Liberals and NDP are solving their problem by not voting. I suspect that's an important insight into what the next election is going to be like.

The Liberals will be trying to steal the NDP's and avoid losing the 'food court' vote. God knows what the NDP will be doing, but it will probably reflect the present confusion. And the Conservatives would split if it were not for the fear that it would mean another term for our mangina Prime Minister.

The Liberals will have their multi-million dollar slush fund for media 'honesty' ... the public is, in varying degrees, becoming alienated from a process that leaves most people feeling that nobody speaks for them.

And Bernier? Where's Bernier?
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tory Michael Barrett wins byelection, succeeds Brown

Wayne Lowrie Wayne Lowrie
More from Wayne Lowrie

Published on: December 4, 2018 | Last Updated: December 4, 2018 12:40 AM EST


Michael Barrett kisses his wife, Amanda, to celebrate his election as MP for Leeds-Grenville_Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes. At left is MPP Steve Clark. (Wayne Lowrie/The Recorder and Times)


In the end, it wasn’t even close.

Conservative candidate Michael Barrett thundered to an easy victory in Monday’s federal byelection, collecting 58 per cent of the popular vote to keep Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes solidly in the Tory column.

His closest competitor, Liberal Mary Jean McFall, was second with 35.5 per cent, according to Elections Canada’s count with more than 98 per cent of the votes in.

The NDP’s Michelle Taylor and Lorraine Rekmans of the Green Party were duking it out for the third and fourth spots, with Taylor narrowly ahead with 3.1 per cent of the ballots compared with three per cent for the Greens.

Barrett, who led the polls throughout the evening, said his victory sends a strong message to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and foreshadows a Conservative victory in the general election in just 11 months.

“Let’s make Justin a one-term prime minister,” he told a cheering crowd at his Brockville campaign office.

Barrett said his victory shows that people are saying no to a carbon tax and to a prime minister who prefers giving money to celebrities than helping average Canadians like those in Leeds and Grenville.

And noting that Prime Minister Trudeau has not yet moved into the PM’s residence of 24 Sussex Drive because of renovations, Barrett said the next man to occupy the home will be his leader, Andrew Scheer.

The California Avenue campaign office was packed with enthusiastic campaign workers, Conservative MPs down from Ottawa, local politicians, including the mayors of Brockville, Augusta, Prescott, Edwardsburgh/Cardinal and Elizabethtown-Kitley, and friends and family of Barrett.

The candidate’s grandparents, Frank and Betty Barrett, both 89, led the crowd in cheers for their grandson as Frank danced a vigorous jig in celebration of the results.

McFall telephoned Barrett shortly before 10 p.m. to concede the election with 40 per cent of the polls left to be counted.

Barrett praised McFall and all of his opponents for running respectful and clean campaigns. He promised to represent all voters of Leeds and Grenville, not just those who voted for him, adding that he hoped to persuade more into the Tory column during the general election.

Barrett also paid tribute to former MP Gord Brown, whose death of a heart attack in May made the byelection necessary.

With 235 of the 238 polls reporting, Barrett had 16,176 votes to McFall’s 9,885, Taylor’s 861 and Rekmans’ 846. Independent John Turmel received 109.

The turnout was 34.3 per cent.

https://www.recorder.ca/news/local-news/tory-michael-barrett-wins-byelection-succeeds-brown
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 2:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
These results confirm the disenchantment most Canadians on the left feel for their choices.

The Conservatives aren't much different, except they are held together by their desire to get rid of the happy-talking Trudeau, who is embarrassing. They come out to stop the stupidity, rather than in support of any of Andrew's compromise solutions.

The polls tell us that there isn't very much vote-changing going on. The reason -- there's so little leadership on the opposition side. Singh isn't even in the House, and Scheer isn't doing that much better than him ... what does that tell you?

Lukewarm supporters of the Liberals and NDP are solving their problem by not voting. I suspect that's an important insight into what the next election is going to be like.

The Liberals will be trying to steal the NDP's and avoid losing the 'food court' vote. God knows what the NDP will be doing, but it will probably reflect the present confusion. And the Conservatives would split if it were not for the fear that it would mean another term for our mangina Prime Minister.

The Liberals will have their multi-million dollar slush fund for media 'honesty' ... the public is, in varying degrees, becoming alienated from a process that leaves most people feeling that nobody speaks for them.

And Bernier? Where's Bernier?



looking at what the trends might mean for the next 3 looming by elections


the conservatives likely aren't that worried about retaining York Simcoe based on what we saw in yesterdays by election. although still many unknowns around who the liberals will run in that riding and what affect a people's party candidate has on the race

they may also be wishing that Tony Clement had also resigned instead of his ghost lurking around Ottawa and the remaining uncertainty around his future . the 2015 numbers from his riding look rather similar to those in Leeds Grenville and if the cpc could easily hold it in a by election scenario with 58 % of the vote , they might have similar advantages in his riding as well and perhaps a better chance at retaining the riding in a by election than some think



as for Outremont , the trends don't look good for the ndp , there certain to lose vote share in that riding and would seem unlikely they'd retain it based on everything we've seen so far . my question is why do the liberals keep delaying that by election , I though they would of called It long ago . its possible this by election won't even be close it could be a blow out



Burnaby South would seem to be the most unpredictable of the 3 , the problem for the ndp is there losing votes everywhere and can't afford to lose any in that riding . I also don't think Singh will do well with Chinese people and that riding is full of them . the cpc has done a lot better in ridings with high Chinese populations lately and could grow its support there as well .
its also unclear who the liberals will run there and what affect a people's party candidate has on the race if any . I expect this one to be highly unpredictable and a very uncertain outcome to say the least



I also don't think well see by elections in any of the other rumoured ridings such as ( Brampton East , Saint Leonard Saint Michel or Nanaimo Ladysmith ) as none of those mp's have formally resigned and seem unlikely to do so before the January deadline when by elections can no longer be called
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( sorry can't view the entire article , I don't know if the 5 % dip for the liberals is that significant . the bigger question this by election left is for the ndp . if candidates are only getting 3 % , the same candidate who came in second provincially months earlier , something is clearly horribly wrong. like 3 % is what a fringe party might get , not what you'd expect from a party with 40 seats in the house of commons )



News

‘Scheer needed this,’ federal Tories tighten hold on Leeds-Grenville riding in byelection

By Beatrice Paez Dec. 4, 2018


For the Liberals, the five per cent dip in support should be taken as a sign that the party needs to evaluate whether its strategy is working, says former Liberal MP Joe Jordan of Bluesky Strategy Group.




Liberal candidate Mary Jean McFall, left, captured just 35.8 per cent of the vote, while Michael Barrett, middle, handily scored 57.8 per cent. The NDP candidate Michelle Taylor, right, trailed a distant third with just three per cent. Photographs courtesy of Mary Jean McFall, the Conservative Party, and Michelle Taylor


https://www.hilltimes.com/2018/12/04/biotechnology-266/180180
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its always hard to read the tea leaves from a by-election;

However we have largely speculated that there are several ridings in Ontario specifically and Canada in general which shifted Liberals in 2015 largely due to "one time" turn out or issue specific voters.

Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes is a fairly safe CPC riding;
However the margin of victory in 2015 was 7% where the last few elections it was 42, 32, and 30 respectively.

The margin in the by-election of 22% appears to be more in line with the historic results in the riding.

If that sort of return to the norm holds true in a general in just that region alone it puts 3 of the 4 LPC ridings which was CPC ridings prior to 2015 in Eastern Ontario at risk.

The positive take away for the Liberals is the NDP vote collapsed;
Sooner or later it becomes hard to simply brush that aside as by election blues, when does that become a trend?
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Its always hard to read the tea leaves from a by-election;

However we have largely speculated that there are several ridings in Ontario specifically and Canada in general which shifted Liberals in 2015 largely due to "one time" turn out or issue specific voters.

Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes is a fairly safe CPC riding;
However the margin of victory in 2015 was 7% where the last few elections it was 42, 32, and 30 respectively.

The margin in the by-election of 22% appears to be more in line with the historic results in the riding.

If that sort of return to the norm holds true in a general in just that region alone it puts 3 of the 4 LPC ridings which was CPC ridings prior to 2015 in Eastern Ontario at risk.

The positive take away for the Liberals is the NDP vote collapsed;
Sooner or later it becomes hard to simply brush that aside as by election blues, when does that become a trend?




its hard to say if the liberals gains in 2015 were a 1 time turnout or not , but its not unheard of for progressive type politicians to get incredible turnout when they first win only to see things gradually drop ( Obama would be a prime example , his voters came out in force in 2008 but forgot to bother voting in 2010 )


well this by election was largely expected to stay conservatives , lets not forget the fact that the liberals actually tried to win this one only to get embarrassed . there effort was much more than just trudeau's visit to the riding , its mentioned in another article many liberal mp's and cabinet minister also dropped by . there headquarters in Ottawa places hundreds if not thousands of calls into the riding in support of there candidate . not to mention all the money they likely spent on signs and local advertisements

yet they only managed 35 % of the vote and no where near the number of votes they got in 2015


if liberal turnout returns to more normal levels , its not hard to make a list of ridings that might actually return to the tories rather easily in 2019 , but one should never try and read too much into one rather meaningless by election


as for the ndp vote , I mentioned in another thread its gone down in 13 of the 14 by elections since 2015 , there is clearly a trend of less ndp voters actually showing up to vote
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Federal by election in Leeds Grenville on Dec 3

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