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Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:10 pm    Post subject: Despite dairy concessions, Liberals lose nothing! Reply with quote

Despite dairy concessions under USMCA, Trudeau Liberals’ ambitions in Quebec likely not in peril, strategists say
By BEATRICE PAEZ, ABBAS RANA OCT. 8, 2018
Opposition parties will exploit the issue, pundits say, but it could be defused long before 2019 vote. The feds have pledged to develop a compensation package to mitigate the dairy industry’s losses.

The top 10 ridings with the most dairy farms: 1. Conservative MP John Water; 2. Conservaive MP Bernard Généreux; 3. People's Party MP Maxime Bernier; 4. Conservative MP Alain Rayes; 5. Bloc MP Louis Plamondon; 6. Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie; 7. Conservative MP Luc Berthold; 8. International Development Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau; 9. Conservative MP Steven Blaney; and 10 Liberal MP Francis Drouin. The Hill Times photographs by Andrew Meade
The Trudeau government’s decision to bow down to U.S. pressure to loosen restrictions on access to Canada’s dairy industry is a cudgel for opposition parties, but strategists say there are limits to how far they can ride the wave of backlash from the industry.

The new NAFTA deal, renamed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, was widely seen as having been reached at the expense of the Canadian dairy sector, in exchange for a side agreement essentially exempting Canada from auto tariffs, which the U.S. administration had repeatedly threatened to impose.

“The Liberals probably took a bit of a calculated decision in terms of what they could stand to lose with this decision, versus the alternative, which may have been auto tariffs,” said Kate Harrison, vice-president at Summa Strategies and a former Conservative staffer. “That may have impacted many more ridings across Canada than this one issue. If you’re looking at weighting the scales … that was probably the calculation made there.”

Much of Canada’s dairy sector is concentrated in Quebec and Ontario, in federal ridings that traditionally skew Conservative. [....]
https://www.hilltimes.com/2018/10/08/despite-dairy-concessions-trudeau-liberals-ambitions-quebec-not-peril-strategists-say/171657
=================================

What, then, did Andrew Scheer hope to get out of this arrangment that was worth splitting the Conservative Party over?

He got his own advancement! The Peter Principle in action! Correct me if I am wrong.
queenmandy85





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote: "What, then, did Andrew Scheer hope to get out of this arrangment..."

The CPC leadership.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And the party got screwed.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

when you look at the top 10 ridings for dairy farms , you can see why the liberals weren't worried about making some concessions on dairy


6 are conservative , 1 bloc , 1 people's/ Maxine Bernier , and 2 liberal ( Compton Stanstead and Glengary Prescott Russell )

the 2 liberal ridings are relatively safe although former cpc mp Pierre Lemieux is running in Glengary Prescott Russell

the bloc riding , Louis Plamondon has been an mp forever and is never going to lose , although I'm surprised he didn't retire for 2019

even Beauce which had been liberal before Bernier elected in 2006 , it be a massive upset if he doesn't keep that riding , he's always won by large margins


the 6 cpc ridings were mostly won by large margins ( Perth Wellington and Oxford in Ontario both very safe cpc ridings ) and Richmond Arthabaska , Montmagny Riviere du loup , Megantic Erable and Bellechasse Levis .

none of the quebec ridings have been liberal in recent years and mostly won by large margins with the exception of Riviere du Loup which was very close but has a popular incumbent cpc mp


even if they had gone all out on dairy and made no concessions , they would of had a tough time gaining any of the 8 non- liberal ridings on that list . as none of them were especially likely targets , all rural and far away from urban centres where the liberals do better
queenmandy85





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
And the party got screwed.


How so? Sheer keeps the CPC seats, and probably picks up the BQ seat and maybe even Biker Bernier's.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Are you happy with that? Really?
queenmandy85





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Every seat counts. The objective of a successful political party is to win elections. Parties that put ideology ahead of winning are call New Democrats.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The consultation with the US & Mexico on trade deals moving forward is likely the issue which will resonate with voters more than the dairy cartel will.
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

queenmandy85 wrote:
Bugs wrote:
And the party got screwed.


How so? Sheer keeps the CPC seats, and probably picks up the BQ seat and maybe even Biker Bernier's.



I doubt the cpc would win the BQ riding , Louis Plamondon has been an mp since 1984 and I don't think he's ever lost that riding . its also a surprisingly weak cpc riding , they came in 4th there in 2015 . did manage some better results in 2006 and 2008 but still not even close to beating this mp


also think the idea of beating Bernier in his own riding of Beauce is a long shot , he's always won by large margins and remains personally popular there . the dairy farmers might vote against him but not sure that be nearly enough to beat him


think the only riding on the list , the cpc could maybe gain . might be Glengary Prescott Russell as former cpc mp Pierre Lemieux running , he had been mp from 2006-2015 , the same riding also went pc provincially after having been liberal for decades
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Despite dairy concessions, Liberals lose nothing!

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