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cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
Your mastery of the art of understatement is unassailable.


Thanks!

Bugs wrote:
A challenge to all of you cautious 'understatement people' ... Can anyone come up with a bigger diplomatic failure in Canada's history?

Maybe it's only the second worst diplomatic failure.

Remember, we didn't even have a Canadian passport until the 1950ies. We didn't control our own foreign policy until 1932. (Don't believe that BS that we got our independence in 1867.) The right to control our own foreign policy was something Borden and King carried on before that, it's true, but that was not having our own foreign policy. That wasn't officially recognized until the Statute of Westminster in 1931.

So, where have we had a bigger failure since 1931?


Hmmmmm;
The risk alone that we won't be able to get the deal we apparently had done makes this a pretty massive screw up.

The size of the screw up will be amplified by what concessions we may need to make;

If we had a deal and we wanted to "look strong" because we were aiming for a snap election and messed up the deal in the process and now need to give something up for a week of political capital this could be massive.

As such, from a Trade Perspective;
This has taken the cake

From a failure perspective;
Not getting Quebec's signature on the Constitution in 1982 is the benchmark, but this could easily surpass it.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's worse than that, Cosmo. It was a total acceptance of the Hillary/Deep State view. On November 9th, the plotting against Trump began. The Russian collusion story was hatched. I don't suggest that they were involved in any of this. But they banked on it.

They were confident that Trump would be stymied by Congress, and the mix of intelligence agency leaks and media would do the rest. He would lose control of the House in the midterms, and perhaps be impeached. There is evidence of all of this being organized from the Obama White House as well as through the DNC.

Canada actually was banking on Trump being unable to renegotiate the trade deals.

I think they were blinded by their own hopes and their own ideologies -- which are more social justice-y than traditional lefty. I mean by this that environmentalism + gender politics are at the core of their beliefs, overlaying the usual welfare state make-the-corporations-pay crap.

They anticipated the fall of Trump in their trade negotiations. They used the stage as a forum to project their beliefs into Mexico, for example, rather than concentrating on saving the auto pact. And the rest was Justin's narcissism.

Worse, Justin even tried to rally the opposition to Trump!

It's that bad! It amounts to interfering in American politics when you promote yourself as 'the Liberal alternative' to the sitting President. It's more than a blunder.

The Quebec's signature thing is a domestic failure.

This isn't about loyalty to the best Conservative leader the Milk Marketing Board could buy for us. This is about making the party align itself so that it represents the best interests of the most people in the country in the long term.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Mexico and U.S. appear close to deal on key auto content rules, as Canada remains on NAFTA sidelines
The two countries were to meet again on Thursday, again without Canada, while Canadian officials met in Ottawa Wednesday to plot out their strategy

Tom Blackwell
August 8, 2018
8:12 PM EDT

With Canada remaining on the NAFTA sidelines for a third straight week, the U.S. and Mexico met for more trade talks Wednesday, and appeared close to a deal on the key issue of where car parts come from and how much the workers who make them are paid.

They are expected to turn next to a potentially thornier issue, U.S. demands for a sunset clause in NAFTA requiring it to be re-approved every five years.

Canada, Mexico and even some Republican members of Congress are strongly opposed, saying an automatic, five-year reset on the deal would spawn uncertainty and deter potential investment.

But details of what is happening behind closed doors came largely from second-hand accounts of the talks Thursday. As the Mexican delegation left the offices of the U.S. Trade Representative, virtually next door to the White House, they were uncharacteristically closed-mouth about the start of two days of talks.

The parties had been working through outstanding items, Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said.

Could they reach a deal on automobile rules of origin by the end of the week? he was asked.

“Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed,” Guajardo said, using a stock phrase meaning the updated NAFTA has to be approved as a package, not in pieces.

Jesus Seade, the trade negotiator representing Mexico’s new president elect, stayed quiet as the delegation strode away, reporters trailing behind.

It is unclear why they refused to talk about the nearly two-hour meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, though sources say the low-profile Lighthizer has been irritated in the past by impromptu press conferences held by his counterparts after such sessions.

The two countries were to meet again on Thursday, again without Canada, while Canadian officials met in Ottawa Wednesday to plot out their strategy for when they are invited back to the table. That could happen as early as next week.

Two American sources who have received briefings on the talks — but are not authorized to talk about what they know on the record — confirmed Thursday there seems to be progress on key American demands about what goes into cars that enter the U.S. duty free under NAFTA.

Those requests by the U.S. are meant to counter the administration’s view that too much of what’s made under NAFTA is out-sourced to low-wage destinations, robbing Americans of good jobs.

Mexico seems to have tentatively agreed to the U.S. demands that 75 per cent of auto content be made in North America, and that 40-45 per cent, depending on the type of vehicle, be made by workers earning at least $16 an hour, said one source.

Some of the discussion now is on determining the tariff that would be applied to products — mostly made by European car manufacturers — that don’t meet those thresholds, said the person.

But there is a big caveat to that agreement, the source said. In exchange, Mexico wants the U.S. to at least water down its demand for a sunset clause, as well as take off the table both its proposal to scrap state-to-state dispute resolution, and to impose tariffs on some Mexican produce. (emphasis added)

And none of it means anything in terms of a new NAFTA agreement unless the northern partner signs on as well, says another source familiar with the auto-related negotiations.

“Clearly, the Canadians need to be heard from tout suite, though I do not expect them to balk at this proposal,” said the person. “They should like this … (But) if they don’t agree to the full final deal, these auto (rules of origin) would be for naught — the premise is North American content and Canada would be left out.”

Canadian officials have suggested there is nothing unusual about the long stretch of bilateral negotiations excluding them, and are happy the other two countries have made progress.

But Lighthizer told U.S. senators recently that he hoped to strike a deal with Mexico soon, then use that as leverage to win “compromises” from Canada that have not been forthcoming to date.
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/mexico-and-u-s-appear-close-to-deal-on-key-auto-content-rules-as-canada-remains-on-nafta-sidelines
Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Canada braced for hard bargaining on dairy when NAFTA talks resume

Lost quota meant for U.S. in the TPP likely to resurface at NAFTA table
Janyce McGregor · CBC News · Posted: Aug 10, 2018 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: 4 hours ago

It's unclear when trilateral negotiations will resume on a revised NAFTA deal. But it's quite clear Canada's negotiation won't be easy. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

The United States has unfinished business with Canada's supply-managed dairy, egg and poultry sectors if bargaining to modernize the North American Free Trade Agreement gets down to the short strokes this fall.

U.S. farmers could have sold more of their products into Canada under the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement between 12 Pacific Rim countries negotiated during the Obama administration. But President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the deal in his first week in office.

Now he's out to redeem himself at the NAFTA table — or force even more out of Canada, after imposing previously-unthinkable tariffs on steel and aluminum and threatening to do the same to cars.

"Canada knew going into TPP that the price of entry was going to be doing something on dairy," said Bob Wolfe, a professor emeritus at Queen's University who has studied agriculture trade policy since the 80s.

"Everybody in [the United States Trade Representative's office] knows that Canada blinked on [supply management] before, and will blink again — and given CPTPP, has a pretty good idea what the Canadian blink will look like." [....]
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politic.....-1.4778816


Put differently, this is going to be "hard" for the government to hide its concession. This is going to cost Canadians a lot of money. Trudeau stood shoulder to shoulder with Mexico to make the US back down, and now Mexico threw us under the bus and is cutting its own deal. It'lll be interesting to see how the media make it look like, due to Trudeau's wonderous leadership, we have triumphed in this.

Harper wouldn't have made these mistakes.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The deal Canada will ultimately get will likely be worse that the deal that was apparently struck at G7.

However I don't think the US target will be Dairy,
The Liberals won't enrage rural Quebec by dismantling supply management and I would suspect the US knows that.

My best guess is they (The US) are using Dairy to get a far better deal on Softwood lumber which is a larger market and gives them fair more political capital in many of the Northern US States.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It seems to me that if we'd stopped supply-management, we'd have had a deal early on. And the present auto deal could have been done in a way that protects Canada as well as the US. Mexico takes auto jobs away from Canada as well as the USA.

And that's the blunder. Siding with Mexico instead of expanding our trade in a way that builds on the penetration we have.

Trump would have settled for a quick win' with Canada. For us, it was an opportunity. How about ending protection for cable and cell phones? Does that objectively damage the economy? The media had the Letterkenny people thinking they were going to be "hit" with somethng bad -- like a more competitive marketplace is something to battle over.

We were having the "supply-management" tax removed, in effect.

If we had an effective conservative party, they would have thrown that light on what was happening. Instead, we treated "supply-management" like a sacred cow. We find out later that the leader of the Conservative party is in thrall to the dairy cartel!

The opposition to the Trudeau are muzzled, and maybe a little-limited intellectually.

Now we are going to have to ante up on the Auto Pact. Instead of joining with the US on the auto issue, we were fussing about women's rights in Mexico. Face it, when have you seen the Canadian government fail so utterly? We are going to be pared back again if we don't watch out.

They are so bad that even the dairy cartel guy could win power.
Bugs





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votes: 8

PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
'Canada must wait,' tweets Trump, renewing auto tariff threat
Trump: Canada must wait on NAFTA


NAFTA talks continued between the U.S. and Mexico while President Trump took another shot at the Canadian auto industry.

Rachel Aiello, Ottawa News Bureau Online Producer
Published Friday, August 10, 2018 8:09PM EDT
OTTAWA – U.S. President Donald Trump is renewing his attack on Canada over trade.

On Friday evening he took to Twitter to restate his threat of levelling tariffs on the Canadian auto sector, while claiming "Canada must wait" to make a deal.

In the 51-word tweet, Trump said that a deal with Mexico is "coming along nicely," and that the incoming Mexican president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador "has been an absolute gentleman."

Trump said that Canada has to wait, citing too-high tariffs and trade barriers. It’s now been over two months since Trump levelled steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada, and over a month since the federal government retaliated with counter-tariffs on American-made steel, aluminum, and other goods.

"Will tax cars if we can't make a deal!" the president said. Trump has made this threat on several occasions and those in the industry have expressed concern about the impact that could have throughout North America.

The tweet comes amid ongoing tepidness about when NAFTA renegotiations will resume. One-on-one talks between the U.S. and Mexico are set to continue next week, longer than initially anticipated. Though, Canadian officials have expressed hope that a deal could still be made soon. [....]
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-must-wait-tweets-trump-renewing-auto-tariff-threat-1.4048788


Mexico and the US will shake hands on a deal that satisfies them, and Canada will face a take-it-or-leave-it situation. That's what I suspect will happen here. Canada will continue to lose auto jobs.
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A trade war that we can't win

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