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cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If the Democrats fail to win the House and Senate come November I think that Conrad Black's point on leadership will likely be a key reason why.

The problem with being the party of outrage is that simply standing on the other side of every issue with minimal new policy effectively asks voters to jump blindly into an abyss.

The direction the party has taken as of late is certainly securing money and support from the areas the Democrats already do very well in, but the challenge is it doesn't matter how many times you lap the GOP in New York and California. If getting that crowd even further behind you alienates you in the "States in the middle" you risk four or five Senate seats.

In a situation where this President will fill two Supreme Court Seats in less than two years and the two oldest Justices on the bench are amongst the most Liberal trying to win the Senate or at least maintain the Status quo should be the single largest priority.

Right now its far more important for the Democrats to be popular in Montana, Missouri, Indiana, Florida, and North Dakota than it is to be in New York or California.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's only getting worse, with the elections only four months away!

It seems like the party is organizing the near-assaults that take place in restaurants when Trump's inner circle are through a hard day's work and relaxing with a drink. I don't believe that these incidents are contrived, but that they're encouraged. It's like putting 15-minutes-of-fame up for auction

At the other end, there are things like the "walk-away movement" -- amongst Blacks, in the lead now, but also homosexuals ... I know, I know, you serious Conservatives don't take YouTube seriously, but I have watched a number of these videos and what strikes me is the intelligence and coherence of the people involved. Their criticisms are devastating.

I wonder if the faux outrage in the restaurants, the knees downed by the football millionaires, the Bernie Saunders outrage ... the whole vile package of what all this idealism has become in the present ... makes the smart young people want to barf.

It's hard for a 50-year-old Conservative man to understand what a horror the welfare state is turning into, but if they were a 20-year-old conservative man on a campus, they would be hectored with the guilt of YOU! And even more of ME! We are the hated patriarchy. People like us are to be vilified. But I digress.

They would also be expected to 'understand' if the women on campus treat the men as unconvicted rapists, which some of them do. (And they do it because they believe it.)

They would face discrimination in any post-grad degree, and in the professional schools. Diversity means, in practice, finding anyone but a white male, particularly if they have one of those anglo-sounding names, like Jones. But it isn't too great if you're an Asian man either.

This is fuelling a leak of support from the Democrats of exactly the people they felt to be their future base, the young socialists coming out of the education system now.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know if anyone watches these videos, but in this one, a taste is enough. It is the video of an idealistic, optimistic youth who has gone from an uninvolved student who thought of Republicans as racists ... to a Trump supporter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJFDs8KlY2E

The part I want to attract your attention to is probably the first three minutes, where he describes how he was taken over by a whole new vision of the world. You will note he is no less idealistic now, nor more cynical.

This is a generation ripping itself off from the political paradigms of their teachers and families. It started small, but it is going viral.

This has yet to happen in Canada.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I give you this just for its chuckle value ... for one thing, it's from the US, always a good for a snicker ... for another, it shows the collective confusion of the top Democrats.

The background, as some might know, is that the Democrats had an attractive Hispanic woman emerge, who won a primary election against one of the heavyweights, on a platform that includes abolishing the immigration service of the USA.

In a burst of enthusiasm, they crafted a Bill to abolish ICE -- the immigration enforcement agency. Now, ten days later, Ryan is scheduling floor time for it, and it's turned out that 75% of the people think that's a dumb idea, and, of course, accusing those dastardly Republicans.

Quote:
DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSMAN ACCUSE PAUL RYAN OF POLITICAL STUNT FOR CALLING FOR VOTE ON THEIR ‘ABOLISH ICE’ BILL2:27 AM 07/13/2018
Molly Prince | Contributor

Three Democratic congressmen declared on Thursday that they will vote “no” on their own legislation if House Speaker Paul Ryan puts their bill on the floor.

Reps. Mark Pocan of Wisconsin, Pramila Jayapal of Washington and Adriano Espaillat of New York introduced the Establishing a Humane Immigration Enforcement Act earlier Thursday, which would abolish ICE within one year of enactment, and also assemble a commission tasked with setting up a new immigration enforcement agency.

Hours later, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy announced he planned to bring the proposed “Abolish ICE” bill to the floor, reported The Hill.

The three congressmen promptly released a joint statement accusing Ryan of not taking their bill seriously, and as an act of protest, they will vote down their own legislation and instead use the opportunity to discuss Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, President Donald Trump’s zero-tolerance immigration policy and ICE.
http://dailycaller.com/2018/07.....paign=push


That have actually contrived a situation where they take up House time with a bill they themselves sponsored but won't vote for because there's an election 4 months away.!

What we have here (I contend) happens a lot in political parties. More than anybody else, they come to believe their own ideology. I don't mean big ideological stuff as much as the situation at hand. They try to demonize the other, in a variety of ways and vie to pose as the 'heroes' saving the day. (If they can.)

So, for me is 'action being led off by the notion that the immigrant is oppressed in America, held in a condition of servitude. And they act 'as if' that was true as much as they can, -- because they know you have to act like you believe it to be persuasive.

And that comes into conflict with another set of beliefs, widely held in the public. and which they know about (and play upon) all the time.

And they end up playing into Trump's hands. The Democrats find themselves going into the election as exemplars of open borders and Moslem rights! And the Globe&Mail reader is led to believe that all the smart people thnk Trump is the idiot!
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( there is also a special election in Ohio on Tuesday in a historically republican area although expected to be closer than normal )


Midterm Elections

· 2 hours ago

Ohio special election poses major test for Trump, as Dems threaten upset for district held by GOP for decades




Gregg Re By Gregg Re | Fox News



Polls suggest a close race between Democrat Danny O'Connor, left, and Republican Troy Balderson. (Campaign photos)

Democrats looking for a shocking underdog win in a special election in Ohio on Tuesday are hoping not only to snatch a House seat in a historically Republican district, but also to energize their national effort to fight President Trump's agenda and reclaim a congressional majority.


Ohio's 12th Congressional District, in the suburbs of Columbus, has had a Republican representative for 35 years, and has been largely in GOP hands since 1920. But a poll released Monday by Monmouth University showed that Republican state Sen. Troy Balderson, 56, leads upstart challenger Danny O'Connor, 31, by just one percentage point.

Trump, who won the wealthy and highly educated district by double-digits in 2016, went all-in for Balderson with a last-minute rally on Saturday night in a sweltering auditorium that Trump said hit "110 degrees," ruining his "brand-new, beautiful suit." Former President Obama took the district by several percentage points in 2008.


“A vote for Danny boy and the Democrats is a vote to let criminals and drugs pour into our country,” Trump said. “And to let MS-13 run wild in our communities. And you know what they do once they’re there.”

The president went on to describe O'Connor as a "puppet" for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. O'Connor once vowed not to vote for Pelosi to again lead the party, but later backtracked, saying he would support the 78-year-old if it was necessary to retake the House.


Trump also defiantly questioned the idea that historically, the party that controls the White House suffers significant losses in the midterms, declaring, "but I say why?"


Balderson narrowly won the Republican primary for the seat earlier this year amid a crowded field, and campaigned largely as a loyal Trump supporter. He said he would help "build Trump’s wall and defend Christian values" in an advertisement.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich -- who often has criticized Trump since running against him for the GOP presidential nomination -- also has endorsed Balderson, saying he is a "partner in turning around Ohio as we passed tax cuts and balanced the budget."


President continues campaign blitz amid tight House special election.

“It’s really kind of shocking because this should be just a slam dunk [for Republicans] and it’s not," Kasich said on ABC News’ “This Week” on Sunday, adding that he believed Balderson would win.

“But it really doesn’t bode well for the Republican Party because this ... shouldn’t even be contested," Kasich said.

Balderson has other high-profile Republican support. Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, also briefly took the stage during the rally at the request of the president, and was met with chants from the crowd supporting him for the House speakership.

Top Republicans hoped that Balderson's support from both moderates like Kasich and avowed Trump supporters in Washington would draw a large, diverse crowd of supporters to the polls on Tuesday. Balderson himself touted his array of endorsements, telling reporters this week he had "unified the Republican Party."

The Aug. 7 special election to replace retired Rep. Pat Tiberi will be seen as a bellwether for the upcoming midterms in November, and a clear referendum on Trump and Republican leaders including Jordan.

A Quinnipiac University Poll found that Democrats have opened a 12-point lead on the generic House ballot -- a gap that Republicans had almost closed just a few months ago.

Several other states will hold primaries on Tuesday, but Ohio's special election promises to be the last major partisan test ahead of the November midterms.

The array of midterm-season nomination contests has proven confusing even for Washington insiders. Trump last week erroneously told voters in Ohio to "get out and vote" for Rep. Steve Stivers, who already had won the GOP nomination for his House seat earlier this year. He later deleted the tweet and posted his endorsement of Balderson.

http://www.foxnews.com/politic.....cades.html
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

How do people feel about the "Blue Wave" at this point?

Trump has promised to do rallies six days a week during the campaign -- I guess he means from Labour Day onwards. That'd be 42 days worth or rallies. (He sometimes did two and three a day.) He's doing one or two a week right now, isn't he?

I honestly don't know how much effect it will have.

But with the job creation, the immigration position of the Democrats, along with ... (take your pick) ... the foreign policy improvements, or the tax reform, or the budget or any of a bunch of regulations cleared away ... with all of that, it seems to me that (despite being a mid-term election) this has become a referendum on Trump.

And who knows what will be revealed in the summer. Perhaps some sealed indictments will be opened. Perhaps on Brennan, McCabe, Strzok, et al.

Given the confused state of the Democrats, it's looking to me like Republicans will improve their standings in both Houses of Congress.

Any thoughts?
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My thoughts;

The House is still likely the biggest pending threat to lose;
While the Democrats are making a lot of hay about how close Ohio was (is) from last night the reality is that in a general the Democrats in ridings like these won't get the fiscal support from the mother-ship they would in a special.

The challenge the GOP is going to have is in the historically reliable vote of the "Inland Empire" of California. There are nine GOP seats alone in California that are TCTC currently.

Then the President needs to make sure he gets the vote out in Pennsylvania & Michigan where a number of rural GOP seats are at risk.

That will make or break the House Majority.

In terms of the Senate;
Its an uphill battle for the Democrats because if they intend to campaign on the left you potentially cost yourself Senate seats in traditionally red states.

Even if the Democrats pick up Nevada and Arizona, its looking more and more like North Dakota, Indiana and Florida will be GOP pick-ups, which means the Democrats would need to retain Missouri, West Virginia, and Montana while adding a state like Tennessee just to retain the same balance they currently have.
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the republican candidate appears to have narrowly won a special election in Ohio , in an area that normally votes republican by large margins , although did include parts of more urban and liberal city of Columbus )



Ohio


Ohio special election: Republican scrapes ahead in tight race that tests Trump's clout


Results show Troy Balderson just ahead of Danny O’Connor, but the tight margin will leave Democrats optimistic ahead of November’s midterms



Ben Jacobs in Westerville, Ohio

@Bencjacobs

Wed 8 Aug 2018 10.54 BST First published on Wed 8 Aug 2018 04.18 BST



Republicans appear to have narrowly held off a Democratic surge in a traditionally conservative Ohio district many Democrats had hoped would serve up an unlikely victory and boost their chances of sweeping wins in November’s midterm elections.

With a margin of 50.2% to 49.3%, the Republican Troy Balderson was just ahead of the Democrat Danny O’Connor on Tuesday night in a congressional special election that has tested Donald Trump’s clout and cost both parties millions of dollars.

While Democrats will be disappointed that they were not able to claim an outright victory, the tight margin will still be a reason for optimism ahead of November’s midterm elections.


Republicans declared victory with Steve Stivers, the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, saying “I’m proud that my fellow central Ohioan, Troy Balderson, will join me in Congress” and congratulating him on a “hard-fought victory”.

But O’Connor has not conceded, telling a crowd of supporters: “Can you believe how close this is? We are in a tie ballgame.”


With all votes counted, Balderson had a lead of 1,754 votes. However, according to the Ohio secretary of state, there remained 3,435 provisional ballots to be counted and 5,045 outstanding absentee ballots. If, after those are counted, the margin is within 0.5%, an automatic recount would be triggered.

The race had been closely watched as a key test of Republican fortunes in prosperous traditionally conservative suburbs where voters have soured on Trump. However, while Balderson’s performance was far weaker than past Republicans in the district, he held on to just enough suburban Republicans to hold a narrow lead on election night.

But Republicans were only able to win a once safe district by spending millions in outside money and an election eve visit from Trump. In November, Republicans will be defending over 70 seats that are considered more favorable for Democrats and will not have those advantages.

The national mood wasn’t the only impediment for Balderson. The Ohio Republican had been considered by operatives to be an underwhelming candidate. He was a lackluster fundraiser and avoided the press even to point of shunning friendly outlets like Fox News. Even in voter interactions, Balderson left much to be desired. Appearing at a polling place on election day, the Republican candidate milled around a parking lot for several minutes, waving and saying hello to passersby without making any attempt to ask for their votes.


Balderson also had several stumbles. He went back and forth about how much to separate himself from Trump. This was a particularly thorny issue in the home district of John Kasich, the popular Republican governor of the state who has remained an unabashed critic of Trump. At one point in the campaign, Balderson couldn’t name a single area of disagreement but has since cited differences on tariffs and immigration. Those mild criticisms were sufficient to earn him a belated endorsement from Kasich.


That endorsement might have helped to push Balderson over the edge. In Delaware County, a suburban Republican stronghold that has been Kasich’s base, several voters told the Guardian they supported Balderson despite feeling uneasy about Trump and cited Ohio’s governor in doing so. O’Connor ended up winning 46% of the vote there, seven points ahead of Hillary Clinton in 2016 and a significant landmark in a county that no Democratic presidential candidate has won in 100 years.

However Trump, who held a rally for Balderson on Saturday, took credit for the result on Twitter: “When I decided to go to Ohio for Troy Balderson, he was down in early voting 64 to 36. That was not good. After my speech on Saturday night, there was a big turn for the better. Now Troy wins a great victory during a very tough time of the year for voting. He will win BIG in Nov.”


Balderson made a prominent gaffe on election eve, telling voters in his rural home town of Zanesville: “We don’t want somebody from Franklin County representing us.” Franklin County makes up roughly a third of the district. When asked about this in the polling place parking lot by the Guardian, Balderson turned his back and left it to an accompanying aide to insist that Balderson really meant O’Connor was a liberal.

The Ohio Republican was buoyed by a tsunami of outside money. The Conservative Leadership Fund, a super-PAC allied with Speaker Paul Ryan, spent more than $2.7m on television advertising alone and sent staffers to knock on more than 500,000 doors in the district.

In contrast, O’Connor ran a textbook campaign for a Democrat in such a conservative district. He insisted he would not support Nancy Pelosi for speaker and his talking points focused on defending social security and Medicare and criticizing the corporate components of the 2017 Republican tax cut bill. However, he suffered one setback when he said he would support Pelosi over a Republican in a television interview. “I will support whoever the Democratic party puts forward,” said O’Connor in a statement that Balderson and his outside allies immediately pounced on.



The close result though was celebrated as a victory by many at O’Connor’s election night party. David Pepper, the chairman of the Ohio Democratic party, was buoyed by the result. “We were underdogs from the start. The idea that we kept it this close, if Republicans aren’t worried about that they are making a mistake.”


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/07/ohio-special-election-troy-balderson-congress-republicans
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trump-backed Republican Troy Balderson holds narrow lead over Democratic newcomer Danny O'Connor in too-close-to-call special election in deep red Ohio district


Bryan Logan

9h


Danny O'Connor Troy Balderson combo combination photo
The Democrat Danny O’Connor, left, and the Republican Troy Balderson. AP/Getty Images/Business Insider

• Backed by President Donald Trump, the Republican Troy Balderson held a narrow lead over the Democratic insurgent Danny O'Connor in Ohio's 12th District special election on Tuesday night, leading the race by nearly 1,800 ballots.

• A victory for Balderson was not unexpected in the deep red district where Trump won by 11 points in the 2016 election, but the narrow margin is seen as a positive sign for Democrats who are working to reclaim a majority in one or both chambers of Congress in November.

• In the meantime, Balderson is expected to take the House seat abandoned by Republican Rep. Pat Tiberi, who announced his resignation in October, midway through his term.

• Balderson and O'Connor will face each other again in the November 6 general election.


Backed by President Donald Trump, the Republican Troy Balderson held a narrow lead over his Democratic challenger, Danny O'Connor, in Tuesday night's special election in Ohio's 12th Congressional District. With 100% of precincts reporting, Balderson led the race by nearly 1,800 ballots in a deep red district that Trump won by 11 points in the 2016 election.

Balderson is expected to take the House seat abandoned by Republican Rep. Pat Tiberi, who announced his resignation in October, midway through his term.

Democrats can view Tuesday's narrow margin as a promising sign ahead of the November midterms, as the 12th District has been a Republican stronghold for more than 30 years. It could signal another competitive contest between O'Connor and Balderson when they meet again in the November 6 general election.

"I'd like to thank President Trump," Balderson said in his victory speech, even as several news networks held off on calling the race late Tuesday, citing the vote count and outstanding provisional ballots that need to be tallied over the next 10 days.



O'Connor did not immediately concede Tuesday night. "We always knew this was going to be a close race," he said in a statement, adding: "I know that this campaign left it all on the field."

"No matter what happens next, I'm proud to stand beside the thousands of volunteers who have made this campaign possible," O'Connor said.

The two candidates swapped the lead multiple times Tuesday night as the votes came in. At one point, with 95% of the votes counted, Balderson led by just 741 votes, or 0.4 percentage points.

According to Ohio's secretary of state, Jon Husted, with all precincts reporting the unofficial vote tally came down to:

• Balderson: 101,574 votes
• O'Connor: 99,820
• Joe Manchik (Green Party): 1,127

Husted must officially certify the vote count by August 24.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ohio-special-election-results-troy-balderson-beats-danny-oconnor-2018-8
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trump had a rally in Ohio a few days ago. It is probably an indication of the role he will play in the upcoming elections. He is committed to six rallies a week during the campaign.

The problem with these by-elections is that the national parties get behind these candidates with funding, etc as Cosmo points out. That makes them less reliable as an indication of the public's mood. Advertising works.

The other thing is that this is he richest electoral district in Ohiio so it isn't the mainstream.

The American left is split between its old formula and the Social Justice model. The olde left relies on advancing the welfare state and building redistributive effects into legislation. The Social justice types are about power. They have no model other than stopping oppressive sex roles ... their 'program' has been largely negative and targeted at "deplatforming" conservative voices, but they are metastasizing into Bolshevik socialism.

Olde fashioned socialism was from the industrial age. Social Justice is from the digital age.

I think the olde socialism has diminishing returns, especially in an expanding economy. Americans have seen the folly of Obamacare. They want less, not more. Things are working out, that way.

So it leaves the field to the social justice wing of the party. Unfortunately, they don't have a mouthpiece at the moment. But these people can easily foam over. A lot of the population think they're just crazy, just antifa without their masks.

I just don't see how you can win an election on an agenda of open borders and Moslem rights.
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2018 - US Midterm Elections

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