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cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adam Vaughan is just another version of Kathleen Wynne and therefore has my endorsement as leader because that is the last direction the OLP needs to go if they want to rebuild off this recent loss;

I like Mark Holland, he is young and he is scrappy;
Rebuilding the party is going to take someone with Patrick Brown's energy and Holland may be that guy for them.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Adam Vaughan is just another version of Kathleen Wynne and therefore has my endorsement as leader because that is the last direction the OLP needs to go if they want to rebuild off this recent loss;

I like Mark Holland, he is young and he is scrappy;
Rebuilding the party is going to take someone with Patrick Brown's energy and Holland may be that guy for them.



Adam Vaughan would likely be the pc's dream choice as it create a battle for downtown Toronto with the ndp ( who now hold almost all the seats there )

and force both opposition parties to spend most of the election fighting among themselves for downtown Toronto an area the pc's needed zero seats from to win a majority


I've always really disliked Mark Holland for some reason , he's never indicated a desire to move into provincial politics until now and would find the idea of him at queens park odd to say the least

he'd also need to find a riding and currently no liberal ridings in the 905 , his Ajax riding would be a tough battle against likely pc cabinet minister Rod Phillips

( the former liberal incumbent Joe Dickson came in 3rd this election as ndp surged there even though they wanted to close the ridings largest employer the pickering nuclear plant , which makes the surge harder to explain )
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Already we see the outlines of the next generation of Liberal -- and likely, NDP -- leaders. Talented, presentable educated idealists -- rarely with much practical sense -- supported at their hardcore by fanatics for special causes, whether it be some new sexual identity group, or a deeper level of veganism.

This is where the world is now being cut up into political tribes. This is where Conservatives have to learn to contest. A lot of what is "the Left" is a set of attitudes and narratives that are taught in schools.

It seems to me that Conservatives have to come to grips with that, because it won't spontaneously change. I am not just talking about Ontario's sex-education curriculum -- or even social conservatism -- I mean that massive amounts of social change is being imposed on the population through education. At a minimum, Conservatives ought to dragging the social-engineering role of government into the limelight, so that public can have some inputs into what they want their children turned into.

Is there anyone here who understand what I am getting at?
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

With the results now largely official;
It appears that of all the Liberals elected on election night only one (Nathalie Des Rosiers in Ottawa—Vanier) secured more than 40% of the popular vote within their own ridings.

For all the discussion about how bad the results were;
In some cases they were a few hundred votes from being far far worse.

Without a date selected to replace the former Premier,
It will be interesting to see the amount of formal interest this leadership race takes on.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the Ontario liberal party held a major meeting over the weekend , we also learn there $9 million in debt and members seemed angry and upset at the meeting )



‘We lost our way,’ Ontario Liberal leader tells party members at election post-mortem



By Rob FergusonQueen's Park Bureau

Sat., Sept. 29, 2018



Voters demoted Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal government to a third-party rump of seven MPPs in the June election because it had a “listening” problem, party members said Saturday at a post-mortem in Toronto.

“They made the right call … they’d had enough of us,” Liberal interim leader John Fraser told more than 700 delegates from across the province after a tense question-and-answer session behind closed doors with top campaign officials on what led to Doug Ford’s stunning Progressive Conservative victory.



Interim leader John Fraser cited the partial sale of public utility Hydro One as a turning point for the Liberals before their devastating defeat in Ontario’s spring election.



Fraser said the turning point for the party that governed Ontario for almost 15 years — Tuesday would mark that anniversary — was the sale of almost half the shares in taxpayer-owned utility Hydro One to raise billions of dollars to build transit and other infrastructure.

Public opinion polls at the time showed the move was highly unpopular, but Wynne’s government persisted, saying the partial privatization was the best way to raise the money.

“We didn’t hear what they were saying back to us,” said Fraser, MPP for Ottawa South, in a comment echoed by others at the meeting.


Sources said the crowded feedback session with campaign strategist David Herle, former deputy premier Deb Matthews and two others — with Wynne in the audience — had an “angry undercurrent,” with so many questions that the time allotted had to be extended.


Defeated cabinet minister Steven Del Duca told reporters there were “lots of very strong opinions, which is exactly what the Ontario Liberal Party needs right now.”

Herle declined to comment but Matthews said “the big theme is listen, listen, listen. When you’re in government for a long time, you tend to rely more on your ministers and caucus and staff, and not as much on the grassroots.


“I think we did make that mistake,” she told the Star.

Herle’s presentation included a slide titled “Baggage was catching up to us and sticking,” with voters lumping the controversial Hydro One sale, skyrocketing electricity prices and the previous Dalton McGuinty government’s scandal over cancelled gas plants into one category.

Another slide pointed to a “major credibility issue” for the Liberals on management of taxpayers’ money — which Ford’s campaign easily exploited — and an inability to capitalize on turmoil in the PC party after leader Patrick Brown quit over sexual misconduct allegations that he vigorously denied.

“This morning, we confronted some harsh truths,” Fraser said in his speech. “We lost our way, and in turn we lost the election.”

Wynne, who remains the MPP for Don Valley West after stepping down as leader, said in a brief interview that she struggled with attending the post-mortem, which also drew defeated cabinet ministers, MPPs, candidates and her 2013 leadership rival Sandra Pupatello.

“I needed people to know that I stood by what we did but that I also know that we made mistakes,” she acknowledged, saying of her Hydro One decision: “We were trying to solve problems.”

The party still needs to be in the “activist centre” of Ontario’s political discourse, Wynne added, using a phrase she often employed to describe her positioning.

A number of party members signalled a need to return to a more middle-of-the road stance, after campaign promises to expand pharmacare, child care and dental care that would have pushed the province back into deep deficits, after the Liberals boasted for years of the need to balance the budget with Ontario more than $300 billion in debt.

“I don’t see us going too far left or too far right. The middle of politics is important … it pulls the other parties in. It moderates our politics,” said Fraser.

Del Duca, who didn’t rule out a run for party leader, said the Liberals need to find the “pragmatic centre” between Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats, now the official Opposition, and Ford’s PCs.

“I don’t believe we were in the pragmatic centre to the extent we should have been. And that was a message I heard over and over again in my own riding,” he added.

“We were a little bit tone-deaf to some of their concerns, cost-of-living anxieties for example.”

Fraser said Liberals must rebuild so they are ready to become “an alternative to the cuts and the chaos we know are coming” under the new government, which has promised to find $6 billion in “efficiencies” on Ontario’s $150-billion annual budget.

“My gut tells me that when Doug Ford is done ransacking Ontario, there will be even more young Liberals ready to build again,” Fraser added, pointing to strong attendance at the daylong meeting as a positive sign for a party that suffered such a devastating defeat in the spring. The election left the Liberals without enough MPPs to claim official party status in the legislature.

Fraser told the crowd “time will tell” how long voters will keep the Liberals in the “penalty box.”

The party is also $9 million in debt from the election and must step up fundraising efforts to pay it off and build a war chest for the 2022 vote.


https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/09/29/ontarios-interim-liberal-leader-john-fraser-said-the-party-is-confronting-some-harsh-truths.html
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kudos to John Fraser;
He just laid it out and that was rather refreshing.

There was no punches pulled and to basically acknowledge that the voters made the right call in basically decimating the parties seat total. It was a stinging criticism of how the former Premier led them to where they are.

Being 9m in debt wouldn't be such an issue if not for the changes to the Fundraising rules passed by the last government.

Compound that with the fact that you have a leadership race coming likely within the next year where all your best and brightest will be campaigning for themselves and not the party

Once you exit that race you have fundraising fatigue you need to overcome and a 9m dollar mountain before dollar one of new fresh revenue for the next election.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You also should mention that the new leader will not be recognized as the leader of a party, because they have too few MPs. That means no special party expenses, no office staff beyond what a normal member gets, no party research budget, no precedence in the order speakers are recognized in ... the list is probably longer.

How many of the best and the brightest will be willing to sign up to lead that sad band out of that deep hole they dug for themselves?
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
You also should mention that the new leader will not be recognized as the leader of a party, because they have too few MPs. That means no special party expenses, no office staff beyond what a normal member gets, no party research budget, no precedence in the order speakers are recognized in ... the list is probably longer.

How many of the best and the brightest will be willing to sign up to lead that sad band out of that deep hole they dug for themselves?


It would be more challenging if they were two or three seats shy of party status,

I think the first challenge of any new leader will be party status;

The new leader assuming they are outside of caucus (which should be a near certainty) will likely contest the first potential by-election available wrapping themselves in the cloak of "Democracy" and having one more voice in Toronto to hold the Government to account.

PC voters won't exactly be running to the ballot boxes with a 28 seat majority and it will likely pave the way for them to secure party status.

Then the real work begins.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Liberals have a great opportunity before them, it'll be interesting to see where they go.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
The Liberals have a great opportunity before them, it'll be interesting to see where they go.


Its a rarity to start with such a blank slate;
Of the 7 MPPs 5 of them entered caucus 2011 or later (4 of them 2013 or later).

Of the remaining two you have the former Premier who I would imagine would have stepped down already if not for the party needing her seat and Michael Gravelle who was elected in 1995 but is nearly 70 and likely not going to pose any leadership challenge or obstruction to anyone who is made leader.

Much of the baggage of the previous governments is gone and it really does allow for a new leader to come in and really bring the party down to the base and rebuild.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

How much different is their position than that of Bernier? It's closer to official party status in the House, and that's about all, it seems to me.

Personally, I doubt that they have a blank slate. They have a dirty slate.

They are now so far behind that they start their brainstorming sessions with speeches about how flawed they were, and how they deserved to be defeated. They are trying to get back to zero in their own minds. It amounts to joining their critics in attacking their own government!
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:
The Liberals have a great opportunity before them, it'll be interesting to see where they go.


Its a rarity to start with such a blank slate;
Of the 7 MPPs 5 of them entered caucus 2011 or later (4 of them 2013 or later).

Of the remaining two you have the former Premier who I would imagine would have stepped down already if not for the party needing her seat and Michael Gravelle who was elected in 1995 but is nearly 70 and likely not going to pose any leadership challenge or obstruction to anyone who is made leader.

Much of the baggage of the previous governments is gone and it really does allow for a new leader to come in and really bring the party down to the base and rebuild.



I doubt Wynne will stay for the entire term , I'd imagine there will be a by election in her riding at some point . its hard to be a former premier in the new legislature


its not really a blank slate , true there newer mpp's but all of them were involved with the wynne government
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:
The Liberals have a great opportunity before them, it'll be interesting to see where they go.


Its a rarity to start with such a blank slate;
Of the 7 MPPs 5 of them entered caucus 2011 or later (4 of them 2013 or later).

Of the remaining two you have the former Premier who I would imagine would have stepped down already if not for the party needing her seat and Michael Gravelle who was elected in 1995 but is nearly 70 and likely not going to pose any leadership challenge or obstruction to anyone who is made leader.

Much of the baggage of the previous governments is gone and it really does allow for a new leader to come in and really bring the party down to the base and rebuild.



I doubt Wynne will stay for the entire term , I'd imagine there will be a by election in her riding at some point . its hard to be a former premier in the new legislature

its not really a blank slate , true there newer mpp's but all of them were involved with the wynne government


True,
But you aren't in a situation where you have former challengers to leadership in caucus or many of the higher profile ministers from the last government which is helpful if you are looking to take the party in another direction.

I agree regarding the former Premier,
If they had nine seats I suspect she would have stepped aside already, she is just in an awkward situation where if she steps down and they lose her seat (unlikely or not) they are now two seats down in party status.
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Bugs wrote:
You also should mention that the new leader will not be recognized as the leader of a party, because they have too few MPs. That means no special party expenses, no office staff beyond what a normal member gets, no party research budget, no precedence in the order speakers are recognized in ... the list is probably longer.

How many of the best and the brightest will be willing to sign up to lead that sad band out of that deep hole they dug for themselves?


It would be more challenging if they were two or three seats shy of party status,

I think the first challenge of any new leader will be party status;

The new leader assuming they are outside of caucus (which should be a near certainty) will likely contest the first potential by-election available wrapping themselves in the cloak of "Democracy" and having one more voice in Toronto to hold the Government to account.

PC voters won't exactly be running to the ballot boxes with a 28 seat majority and it will likely pave the way for them to secure party status.

Then the real work begins.



I agree the first challenge for them is to regain party status .


although not sure its a given they'd win the first by election that comes open . it would really depend on the riding , some of them aren't that favourable to the liberals and they'd have to over come huge margins of votes for pc and ndp candidates in 2018 election

but if a historically liberal seat comes open , they might have a chance in such a riding . but it doesn't seem that likely one is going to come open in the immediate future . no mpp's have said they want to run federally in 2019 , which would be the most likely way for some to open up


the Ontario liberal party has barely been relevant since they lost the election , sure the ndp hasn't been a very great opposition in my opinion and unable to stop Ford from implementing his agenda , either way it would seem to be a long rebuilding process at this point for the liberals
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
RCO wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:
The Liberals have a great opportunity before them, it'll be interesting to see where they go.


Its a rarity to start with such a blank slate;
Of the 7 MPPs 5 of them entered caucus 2011 or later (4 of them 2013 or later).

Of the remaining two you have the former Premier who I would imagine would have stepped down already if not for the party needing her seat and Michael Gravelle who was elected in 1995 but is nearly 70 and likely not going to pose any leadership challenge or obstruction to anyone who is made leader.

Much of the baggage of the previous governments is gone and it really does allow for a new leader to come in and really bring the party down to the base and rebuild.



I doubt Wynne will stay for the entire term , I'd imagine there will be a by election in her riding at some point . its hard to be a former premier in the new legislature

its not really a blank slate , true there newer mpp's but all of them were involved with the wynne government


True,
But you aren't in a situation where you have former challengers to leadership in caucus or many of the higher profile ministers from the last government which is helpful if you are looking to take the party in another direction.

I agree regarding the former Premier,
If they had nine seats I suspect she would have stepped aside already, she is just in an awkward situation where if she steps down and they lose her seat (unlikely or not) they are now two seats down in party status.



also looking back , I looked thru the by elections that occurred after the 2003 election first won by the liberals . there were 10 in total before the 2007 election , however most occurred later on in the term after the liberals had been in power for a few years .

the ndp was fortunate a seat opened up in an area they historically did well in , Andrea Horwath won the Hamilton east by election . it had been liberal but Hamilton was always a place the ndp had deep roots in .


also 4 mpp's from the past pc government retired before the term was over ( Ernie Eves - former premier and John Baird , Jim Flaherty and Cam Jackson ) , 1 ndp mpp also resigned to run federally

would seem to indicate its mostly mpp's from past governments who trigger early by elections . its rare for new government mpp's to leave that early .


the same thing happened from 1995-1999 , was 5 by elections but none in pc ridings , 3 ndp mpp's from past government left ( including Bob Rae who had been premier ) and 2 liberals also retired
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What's next for the Liberal Party of Ontario?

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