Home FAQ Search Memberlist User Groups Register Login   

BloggingTories.ca Forum IndexBloggingTories.ca Forum Index
    Index     FAQ     Search     Register     Login         JOIN THE DISCUSSION - CLICK HERE      


Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  

Post new topic   Reply to topic Page 9 of 9
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 8041
Reputation: 320.6Reputation: 320.6
votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

All the AR poll did was make me realize how terrifying it is to realize how little most Canadians know about how our Economy Operates.
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 8635
Reputation: 287.8
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( a new ipsos poll has slightly different numbers , also have the liberals struggling in Ontario likely due to provincial election )


June 18, 2018 12:57 pm

Trudeau approval jumps amid Trump trade spat — but it may not last long: Ipsos poll

By Maham Abedi
National Online Journalist, Breaking News Global News



Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s handling of a tricky situation on the international stage is boosting his approval rating at home, according to an Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.



But that doesn’t translate into gains in voter support for Trudeau.



The poll, conducted June 13-15, found that Andrew Scheer‘s Conservatives would win an election if it were held today.

The Conservative Party would garner 36 per cent of the popular vote, Trudeau’s Liberals would get 32 per cent and Jagmeet Singh‘s New Democrats would receive 20 per cent. The Bloc Quebecois would receive five per cent nationally, while the remainder of contenders (including the Green Party) would get seven per cent of votes.

Voter support for the Conservatives is up one point since March, while support for the Liberals is down four points.


Trudeau and trade

Darrell Bricker, the CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, explained to Global News that Trudeau’s boost in approval has a lot to do with national pride.

“There tends to be a bit of a rallying to the flag for political leaders when [Canadians] feel like in an international environment we’re being questioned,” Bricker said.


“Canadians are sort of required to come together as a nation.”

Bricker explained such shows of unity have been seen in instances of military incursions, but this time it’s because of U.S. President Donald Trump‘s tariffs and the resulting dispute.

The prime minister’s approval rating currently sits at 50 per cent, with 12 per cent of Canadians strongly supporting him and 39 per cent somewhat supporting his performance.


The second half of respondents said they disapprove of Trudeau as leader — 23 per cent strongly disapproved and 26 per cent somewhat agreed with that statement.

That’s a jump in Trudeau’s approval of six per cent from the end of March, when it hit a low of 44 per cent.


But Bricker doesn’t expect the effects of the trade dispute to change Trudeau’s approval rating in the long term.

“There are some specific events in the news that are causing this to happen, as opposed to people having really strong and genuine beliefs about how they feel about the prime minister or the federal parties,” he said.

Approval doesn’t equal voter support

While Canadian are more willing to stand behind their prime minister in hard times, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re more likely to vote for Trudeau.

That’s because situations like these have more to do with national unity and pride than the actual prime minister, Bricker said.

“I wouldn’t over-interpret it as a big movement of support for Justin Trudeau in general,” he said, noting the support found for the Conservatives.


Bricker added that the Liberals in general are having a difficult few months overall, starting from the controversy surrounding the small business tax and other issues such as Trudeau’s India trip.

“It’s not been a good time period,” he said.

The survey also found that traditional Liberal strongholds, such as millennials and women, are now split between several parties.

Millennial respondents to the poll (those aged 18-34) were slightly more likely to support the NDP at 30 per cent, compared to the Liberals at 29 per cent. Tories support was 24 per cent.


Liberal support has also traditionally been strong among women, but that seems to be slipping, too. In this latest poll, 35 per cent of women supported Liberals, 31 per cent supported Tories and 22 per cent supported the NDP.

“It’s a precarious situation right now for the Liberals. They’re not doing nearly as well as I think a lot of people think they are,” Bricker said.

Tories and the ‘halo effect’

Scheer’s Conservatives are seeing a “halo effect” following the victory of Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives in Ontario earlier this month.

In Ontario, federal Tories have a lead of 11 percentage points (38 per cent) over Trudeau’s Liberals. The Liberals also trail behind the federal NDP in Ontario, which has 28 per cent support.


Both the PC and NDP boost in Ontario support is a result of the province’s election, Bricker said, adding that it may not last long, either.

“Andrew Scheer and the federal Conservative Party are doing better, along with the NDP in Ontario, because of what happened in the provincial campaign. This will wear off.”

Exclusive Global News Ipsos polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Global News Ipsos.”

This Ipsos poll on behalf of Global News was an online survey of 1,001 Canadians conducted between June 13-15. The results were weighted to better reflect the composition of the adult Canadian population, according to census data. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is considered accurate to within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


https://globalnews.ca/news/4280029/justin-trudeau-approval-donald-trump-trade/
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 5659
Reputation: 281
votes: 8

PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is the Liberals taking the Letterkenny people away from the Conservative Party, if only as a reflex. They think some bully is taking something away from them. It provokes a reaction.

It won't last long if Trudeau starts a trade war.

If Conservatives let this one get away from them, it's because they are incompetent. If they are vulnerable to this kind of propaganda, it means the Conservative Party hasn't done its job!

Honestly, I sometimes wonder if the Conservative Party isn't a branch plant operation of the Milk Marketing Board ...
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 8041
Reputation: 320.6Reputation: 320.6
votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

New Campaign Research Poll largely echos the IR numbers for earlier in the week;
But also providing regional breakdowns.

https://www.campaignresearch.ca/single-post/2018/06/20/Federal-Conservative-Party-Regains-Lead-in-Voter-Intent

The bullet points:

The Tories lead everywhere West of Quebec;
The interesting breakdown of Ontario has the CPC about 10% up on the LPC in the 905s, that puts nearly all of the LPCs 23 Seats in that region at risk.

The LPC lead in Quebec is pretty significant;
But if we break down regionally, I would be interested to see if it was just a matter of the Liberals being more popular in areas that already have the majority of the seats

Montreal, Montérégie, Laval, Laurentides, Outaouais and Northern Quebec, because there are only nine seats to add in those areas that the LPC doesn't already have.

Whereas if the CPC has its newly found support largely in just Quebec City, the East and the Far North they have eight for grabs.

Atlantic Canada continues to be an LPC show;
However lower enough that Fundy Royal, New Brunswick Southwest, Tobique—Mactaquac, and maybe Central Nova comes into play?

In the West of the 29 Seats the Liberals were Elected to;
Potentially 16 - 20 would be at risk based on these numbers.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 5659
Reputation: 281
votes: 8

PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 12:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I take this to be the disenchantment people are feeling about our present PM and his clique. It isn't the effect of anything any of the opposition parties have done.

Conservatives ought to have something ready -- certainly for the fall -- that will take the questions to the Liberals. We have to be the alternative if he goes into a trade war. We have to start thinking of how to make the welfare state sustainable in the post-Trump world, and how to ensure our prosperity.

But that's me. The fairer point is that we have to get an alternative, or better, a set of alternatives out there, in the media. Who speaks for Conservatives on the trade issues? They are confused because their leadership is in "me too" mode, and is acting as if their duty is to line up behind the Liberals as long as the negotiations are going on ... lest the Americans find out we're split on the issue.

Americans find out? They would listen in on Justin's phone calls if they thought he was important enough! Find out! They already know. They have facebook ...
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 8041
Reputation: 320.6Reputation: 320.6
votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think there has to be an assist given to Doug Ford for the Ontario number;
The 905 region just finished tossing out the OLP with both hands.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 5659
Reputation: 281
votes: 8

PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 1:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, true ...

... but Doug Ford is now probably the most important opposition politician in Canada, presumably to be joined by Jason Kenney, and Scott Moe ...

The resistance has started to form, but it has to become articulate.
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 8041
Reputation: 320.6Reputation: 320.6
votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
Yes, true ...

... but Doug Ford is now probably the most important opposition politician in Canada, presumably to be joined by Jason Kenney, and Scott Moe ...

The resistance has started to form, but it has to become articulate.


Agreed.

Jason Kenney is a strong voice;
Hopefully stronger if elected next year.
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 8041
Reputation: 320.6Reputation: 320.6
votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Latest IR Poll:
https://globalnews.ca/news/4308765/andrew-scheer-conservative-frontrunner-trudeau-poll/

CPC: 37
LPC: 33
NDP: 21

There is no raw data I can find yet,
But they have noted the CPC lead in Ontario which existed during the last 36/32 poll has now fallen into the MoE.

It would lead me to assume that Quebec is largely in place or the LPC is being crushed in Western Canada.
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 8635
Reputation: 287.8
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Latest IR Poll:
https://globalnews.ca/news/4308765/andrew-scheer-conservative-frontrunner-trudeau-poll/

CPC: 37
LPC: 33
NDP: 21

There is no raw data I can find yet,
But they have noted the CPC lead in Ontario which existed during the last 36/32 poll has now fallen into the MoE.

It would lead me to assume that Quebec is largely in place or the LPC is being crushed in Western Canada.



my thoughts on the polls having the cpc ahead , is that cpc voters are largely already decided , where is many liberal/ndp voters are not , which is often why we see the conservatives polling good early then things gets tighter during an actual election
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 8041
Reputation: 320.6Reputation: 320.6
votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The data is now available:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Global-News-Fed-Vote-July-3-2018

Long and short of it:

Liberals lead Quebec and East, CPC leads Ontario West to BC where the LPC is ahead by two.

The Liberals lose their majority on the back of the losses in Western Canada;
Even a statistical tie in Ontario likely means about 20 seats lost.

The question then becomes can the LPC make up 32 seats in Quebec with only 38 more available and the CPC up around 10 points from last time.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 5659
Reputation: 281
votes: 8

PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is an increase in Trudeau's 'approval ratings' -- which means that, despite the dismal performance, the electorate sees him as the best choice available to them.

It probably helped a lot by the instinctive desire to rally around a leader when he's in a confrontation.
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 8041
Reputation: 320.6Reputation: 320.6
votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 12:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
There is an increase in Trudeau's 'approval ratings' -- which means that, despite the dismal performance, the electorate sees him as the best choice available to them.

It probably helped a lot by the instinctive desire to rally around a leader when he's in a confrontation.


Right now with the "Us Vs Them" mentality pertaining to NAFTA folks will rally around the one you got.

If there is any truth to an early election based on the issue;
Then it becomes a matter of who would you rather have negotiate the most important trade deal in our history?
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 5659
Reputation: 281
votes: 8

PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This might be better placed on another thread, but it looks to me like recovering auto production is the key element of Trump's trade war. We don't want to be dealt with, like everybody else, after a trade war with Germany and China. We want to be an exception because of the degree of the existing integration ...

I see signals that Canada wants to talk ... but then I hear the mobilizing rhetoric. Why wouldn't we give Trump a quick 'victory' on dairy to keep out of this donnybrook?
Post new topic   Reply to topic Page 9 of 9

Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  


 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum


Conservatives would beat Libs: Poll

phpBBCopyright 2001, 2005 phpBB