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RCO





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PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 9:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( doug ford's odd campaign schedule continues today with a visit to York West ( Humber river black creek ) a riding that has never voted pc in recent memory although was part of ford nation municipally somewhat , but if the pc's wanted to make a serious run there , why didn't they get york west city councillor Giorgio Mammoliti to run there as he had expressed interest in running provincially , he might of actually had a chance this year but no one has heard of the pc candidate they have now )





Cyma Musarat‏ @cmusarat · 1h1 hour ago


On the campaign trail with our leader Doug Ford in Humber River Black Creek. @fordnation #ONPoli




update ford is planning a large rally in Mississauga a city with many ridings in play this year





Simmer Sandhu‏ @simmer_sandhu · 17h17 hours ago



Doug Ford is coming to Mississauga and you're invited! Join us at the Mississauga Convention Centre, this Wednesday, for Doug Ford's rally for a better Ontario. @FordNation is #ForThePeople!


Last edited by RCO on Tue May 15, 2018 9:31 am; edited 1 time in total
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 9:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
The Ipsos poll is interesting;
However its still showing a clean sweep for the PCs in the 905s or roughly 27 seats (Of which the Tories have 2 currently);

The PCs need to hold what they have and add 36 for a majority, adding 25 new seats certainly gets you close.




the regional numbers from the ipsos poll don't match some of the other polls ,as others clearly show the pc's leading in northern Ontario and even south western Ontario


the pc's will likely add some new seats in Ottawa if the liberal collapse continues , Ottawa West Nepean , Orleans , Glengary Prescott Russell , are all starting to seem more likely


although the ndp will likely hold the seats they already have in most areas , it will be very tough to beat an ndp incumbent this year , meaning ridings like London west and Waterloo might be a lot tougher to take back and could stay ndp


but the 905 riding of Oshawa will likely be a close battle until the end , the pc's normally win that riding especially in good years but is some ndp strength there
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Now it is getting interesting. The execution has apparently taken place. Few are going to listen to Kathleen Wynne from now on. Not seriously, as an option.

So now it's a real contest between the two opposition parties.

This is where Ford should make Horwath "own" her willingness to join with Wynne in a coalition. He should start asking the question: Where's the money going to come from? Because, based on their promises, the NDP are going to continue the spending.

We should never forget the power of the civil service unions (in another guise) to swing a close election.
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PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 11:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What is going to be an interesting development is if Wynne and the OLP will continue to go hard after the PCs or if they will accept their new polling position and start going hard after the NDP.

The PCs appear to have the most "firm" support;
Likely support that isn't going back to the Liberals, but the NDP has risen lately mostly at the expense of the Liberals.

Going after the Doug Ford boogieman may have appeared to be a good tactic, but their support isn't bleeding away to him (at least not in the last week)
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 12:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
What is going to be an interesting development is if Wynne and the OLP will continue to go hard after the PCs or if they will accept their new polling position and start going hard after the NDP.

The PCs appear to have the most "firm" support;
Likely support that isn't going back to the Liberals, but the NDP has risen lately mostly at the expense of the Liberals.

Going after the Doug Ford boogieman may have appeared to be a good tactic, but their support isn't bleeding away to him (at least not in the last week)



apparently the CBC poll tracker has the liberals only winning 2 seats , are things really that bad I have no clue but if your the liberals you do really have to wonder what seats are " safe " at this point , which ones are already lost and what others could possibly still be saved


Ontarians for Doug Ford‏ @Ontarians4Doug · 2h2 hours ago


Interesting projections on the CBC's poll tracker.

The PCs are maintaining a strong majority lead. The NDP is gaining seats from the Liberals. The Liberals are projected to win only *two* seats!

The NDP will not bring change. They are the extremist version of Wynne. No #WynNDP!
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 2:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If the poll-tracker's present predictions come true, it's a perfect ending.

PC's ... 85
NDP ... 37
Libs ... 2

Perfect outcome! '

This, by the way, is what Proportional Representation schemes can't do -- give the old crowd the bum's rush. Under their scheme, this would be the approximate result.

PCs ... 50
NDP .. 38
Libs ... 36

What would happen is that the NDP and the Libs would form a coalition, and the spending would merrily continue. Instead, the Liberals gets a reputation to live down, and their policies become a 'third rail' for at least three or four more elections into the future, all things being equal.

It's way better this way. Just sayin ...
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 7:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( david akins tweets pretty much sum up how Wednesday is shaping up , opposition all on offence is previously safe liberal ridings and wynne all defence in ridings previously seen as super safe , she's in York Centre for second visit and Mississauga Malton for 3rd visit )



David Akin 🇨🇦‏Verified account @davidakin · 2h2 hours ago


So to sum up #onpoli leaders tours for WED: @FordNation on offence in Lib ridings in Missisauga; @AndreaHorwath on offence in Lib riding in Scarborough; @Kathleen_Wynne mostly GTA defence but with late night stab at PCPO territory in Kanata.




David Akin 🇨🇦‏Verified account @davidakin · 4h4 hours ago


WED: @Kathleen_Wynne makes 3rd stop of #onpoli in Mississauga—Malton. Incumbent is LIB @AmritMangat_ , MPP since 2007 who won in 2014 with more votes than the PCPO and NDP candidates combined. And yet: Wynne is there for the 3rd time in 2 weeks.



David Akin 🇨🇦‏Verified account @davidakin · 4h4 hours ago


WED. @Kathleen_Wynne starts the day campaign in York Centre. That’s Monte Kwinter’s old riding. Liberals need help there? Kwinter got more votes than PC+NDP combined in 2014. And yet, there the @OntLiberal is tomorrow. #Onpoli



David Akin 🇨🇦‏Verified account @davidakin · 4h4 hours ago


WED: @Kathleen_Wynne finishes the day playing offence. Late day attendance at an Iftar Dinner in Kanata-Carleton where disgraced ex-PCPO MPP @jackmaclaren1 is running. Libs hope MacLaren steals enuff votes from @VoteMerrilee to let Lib @Maghnam_2018 win.


David Akin 🇨🇦‏Verified account @davidakin · 3h3 hours ago


WED: @FordNation is all offence. Campaigns in @OntLiberal territory: Oakville (LIBs won by 12 pts) then Mississauga Centre and Mississauga Malton - both Liberal blowout wins in 2014. #onpoli (Wynne is in Miss-Malton Wed too)


David Akin 🇨🇦‏Verified account @davidakin · 2h2 hours ago


.@AndreaHorwath spends #onpoli WED with 2 events in Scarborough Centre when #ONDP only got 21% of the vote in 2014 vs LIB blowout of 55%. This was @BradDuguid ’s seat since 2003 but he’s quit so: No incumbent.
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 9:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
If the poll-tracker's present predictions come true, it's a perfect ending.

PC's ... 85
NDP ... 37
Libs ... 2

Perfect outcome! '

This, by the way, is what Proportional Representation schemes can't do -- give the old crowd the bum's rush. Under their scheme, this would be the approximate result.

PCs ... 50
NDP .. 38
Libs ... 36

What would happen is that the NDP and the Libs would form a coalition, and the spending would merrily continue. Instead, the Liberals gets a reputation to live down, and their policies become a 'third rail' for at least three or four more elections into the future, all things being equal.

It's way better this way. Just sayin ...




I'm really not sure if the liberals will only win 2 seats or not , but I do think they need to be concerned about winning enough for official party status which is 8 or 10 I can't remember


looking back in 2011 when federal liberal support collapsed In Ontario combined with a rise for conservative and ndp , the liberals won 11 seats ( Markham Unionville , Etobicoke North , Scarborough Agincourt , Scarborough Guildwood , St Pauls , Toronto Centre , York West , Kingston and the islands , Ottawa South , Ottawa Vanier and Guelph )

but some of those they can't count on this year , Ford is running in Etobicoke North and almost certain to win there . there is no liberal incumbents in Guelph , St Pauls , Toronto Centre , York West , Markham Unionville so some of those seats may not be that safe
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 9:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Opinion

If voters aren’t willing to buy what Wynne’s Liberals are selling, none of their advantages matter


Adam Radwanski

Adam Radwanski


Published May 15, 2018

Updated 20 minutes ago


Ontario Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne is pictured during a campaign stop in Waterloo, Ont., on May 15, 2018.

Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press

At the start of a week in which they needed to reverse their negative momentum, the Ontario Liberals pulled out the sort of war-room research that powered their past campaigns.

With great fanfare, Kathleen Wynne and a pair of her ministers announced on Monday that Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats had failed to take into account billions of dollars in recent government spending when costing their platform.

The Liberals’ case was a bit confusing and overstated: Even if the error was on the scale they claimed, it didn’t quite cause the NDP’s entire plan to collapse. Still, the intended effect – the NDP on the defensive, the Liberals again making opponents look like untrustworthy amateurs – wasn’t altogether implausible.



But almost immediately, the reaction felt different this time. Ms. Horwath laughed it off, and so did many pundits, as desperation from a governing party trailing not just the Tories but the perennially third-place NDP in most polls. And who were these Liberals, at war with the provincial Auditor-General over their accounting, to pass judgment on others’ numbers?

Unless more voters were moved by Ms. Wynne’s messaging than it initially appeared, this was the Liberals’ plight in a nutshell.


Operationally, they are still strongest among Ontario’s parties in some ways – the most seasoned opposition researchers, the best advertising, probably the top voter-identification system.

None of those advantages matter, heading into the June 7 election, if voters simply aren’t willing to buy what they’re selling. And all indications are that the Liberals have finally reached that point.

Not that Ms. Wynne’s campaign team hasn’t already tried many strategies to buy new life.

A few months ago, the idea was to eschew the “steady hands” argument incumbent governments often make. Ms. Wynne’s strategists explained that despite economic metrics being strong, many Ontarians felt left behind. And their opinion suggested some respect for Ms. Wynne’s toughness, despite her unpopularity.

So despite her government’s longevity, the Liberals would run her as a change agent, the leader you’d want in your corner – with policies such as a minimum-wage increase, daycare, a basic-income experiment. They went so far as to air a television ad contending life was still tough for too many people.



That made some sense when Ms. Wynne’s likeliest replacement as premier was Patrick Brown, who might have been cast as a milquetoast agent of the status quo. It made less sense when he was replaced as Progressive Conservative Leader by Doug Ford.

By the time the campaign began last week, the Liberals’ pitch had subtly but significantly changed. In the race’s first leaders’ debate, Ms. Wynne tried to convey that things were going well enough that it would be a mistake to change course.

Meanwhile, the Liberals tried to define Mr. Ford as too scary to consider seriously. But here, too, things did not go as planned. The slew of ads they ran introducing Ontarians to the “real Doug Ford” mostly served, Liberal sources say, to drive voters to the NDP.

So just as the campaign officially began, the “real Doug Ford” spots were taken out of circulation. The Liberals shifted to a more positive message about their record – and also to taking sharper aim at the New Democrats.

In other words, the party that made mincemeat of opponents in every other election this century now finds itself vigorously defending a status quo it argued months ago wasn’t good enough, unable to effectively attack the alternative leading in the polls and stuck taking aim at a third party it was previously able to treat as irrelevant.

Although it’s early for obituaries – voters could conceivably be more put off by the other options and come back to them – the grumbling from Liberals outside the upper echelons of Ms. Wynne’s campaign team is already audible. They can feel support bleeding away, and nobody seems to know how to stanch it.


But that presumes there is some remedy they just haven’t landed on yet. And maybe – after almost 15 years in power, and all the baggage that comes with it – it’s too late for that.

In the last election, in 2014, Ms. Wynne was able to put a fresh face on an old government after replacing Dalton McGuinty. Now, she’s carrying all the same baggage as him and then some, courtesy of her own controversies – around everything from the privatization of Hydro One to by-election manoeuvring – and it’s easier for voters just to write her off.

Almost exactly as they made their critique of the NDP platform, the Liberals launched a new TV ad about how even though things aren’t perfect in Ontario, they’re pretty good.

It looks nicer than the other parties’ ads, as usual. But tellingly, rather than Ms. Wynne on camera, an unidentified woman is delivering the script on her behalf.

All the production values in the world can only go so far if voters just don’t want to hear from you any more.


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-campaign-just-doesnt-matter-for-wynnes-liberals-anymore/
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 6:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( today is one of the few days ford's schedule actually makes sense , all 905 and winnable ridings )


Ontario party leaders to do most of their campaigning today in the GTA

Doug, Ford,
Ontario Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford holds a rally to speak about Hydro One in Toronto on Tuesday, May 15, 2018. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Aaron Vincent Elkaim



The Canadian Press
Published Wednesday, May 16, 2018 5:41AM EDT
Last Updated Wednesday, May 16, 2018 6:08AM EDT


The main party leaders are doing most of their stumping for the June 7 election in the Greater Toronto Area today.

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath is campaigning in Toronto, starting with a stop at a childcare centre before visiting a restaurant.

Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford will be making a morning announcement in Oakville, Ont., before heading to Mississauga, Ont., where he's to tour Fielding Environmental and attend an evening rally.


Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne is scheduled to make an announcement at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in Mississauga before heading to Kanata, Ont., where she's to speak at an Iftar dinner.

Hydro One was front and centre for the leaders on Tuesday.

Wynne called raises for the utility's board of directors unacceptable, while her rivals slammed the pay hikes as the consequence of her government's privatization of the utility.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-party-leaders-to-do-most-of-their-campaigning-today-in-the-gta-1.3931800
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 7:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the liberal candidate for Markham Unionville does not include liberal on her signs and is using the same slogan she used for her municipal run not the provincial liberal slogan , seems like she is deliberately trying to confuse voters into thinking she's not a liberal but rather a city councillor running for a seat at queens park )



Liberal candidate’s ‘sign strategy’ includes avoiding references to party



By Tim KellyMarkham Economist & Sun

Tues., May 15, 2018


Don’t expect to find out Markham-Unionville candidate Amanda Yeung Collucci is running for the Liberals based on her election signs.

They don’t mention her party affiliation anywhere.


Markham-Unionville Liberal candidate Amanda Collucci has deliberately decided not to include the Liberal logo or the word Liberal on her election signs.



Collucci, who is currently Ward 6 councillor in Markham, has made the choice not to highlight her party affiliation on her election signs.



The signs say: “Elect Amanda Yeung Collucci: Our Home. Our Future.”

It’s the same slogan Yeung Collucci used in her municipal campaign when she was elected to Markham council in 2014.

Asked if she was trying to hide the fact she was running for the Liberals, currently running third in polls behind the Progressive Conservatives and the New Democrats, Collucci said, “Of course not.”


“I don’t think I need the Liberal logo or the Liberal word to tell people I’m a Liberal,” Collucci said in an interview on Tuesday.

“The colour red says it all,” she added.


Collucci said she has a sign strategy, though she didn’t go into detail about what that would involve.

“My signs are going to come out in different stages. I’m not going to put all of my signs out at once. There will be staging,” she said.

University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman says what Collucci is doing is not unprecedented.

“This is not unusual,” Wiseman said, speculating that she perceives that she is more popular than the Liberals.

“Because so many people vote on the basis of party and not on the basis of individual candidate, she wants to stress individual candidate, which in some cases does have an impact,” he said.

Collucci said she wanted to talk about the issues separating her party from the PCs and NDP.

And she said she wasn’t alone in not displaying her party logo.

“In fact, Doug Ford never had a PC logo in any of his press conferences and he only stood in front of an Ontario flag. Does it mean that he’s not a PC?” she questioned


https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2018/05/15/liberal-candidates-sign-strategy-includes-avoiding-references-to-party.html
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 9:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is so much fun.

The public is so-oo done with the Liberal Party of Ontario that their candidates are hiding their affiliation. (Even when denying it.) Maybe Justin can save the day. Personally, I'd go out to see Justin and Kathleen sharing the same stage.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It should be noted that Markham—Unionville was won by the OLP with 59.32%, 52.58%, and 51.33% of the popular vote in the last three elections.

Its been one of the safer ridings for the Liberals in the GTA.

You would have to think there is a discussion going on somewhere within the brass of the OLP as to when they plan to scale back their spending on this election and start preparing for the leadership race which I would imagine will unofficially start around 10PM on June 7th.
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
It should be noted that Markham—Unionville was won by the OLP with 59.32%, 52.58%, and 51.33% of the popular vote in the last three elections.

Its been one of the safer ridings for the Liberals in the GTA.

You would have to think there is a discussion going on somewhere within the brass of the OLP as to when they plan to scale back their spending on this election and start preparing for the leadership race which I would imagine will unofficially start around 10PM on June 7th.



my understanding is they have already pulled the nasty and negative anti ford ads they ran pre election and plan to run new more positive ads but its unclear how much $ money they plan to spend on this campaign ( haven't seen any liberal ads on tv recently all ndp ads and the odd pc one )



there is no incumbent in Markham Unionville this year but pc's nominated very late and there candidate ( Billy Pang who is a school board trustee but those elections have tiny turnout ) isn't that high profile and not as strong as federal mp Bob Saroya in my view but with pc numbers so high in the 905 its the type of riding that seems poised to go pc regardless


it be difficult for the liberals to hold onto some of these seats unless there support recovers to at least the 30% range province wide and even that may be hard to achieve with wynne as leader
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 1:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( not scientific but noticed there was an election poll on " baytoday" a north bay news site , it has the liberals in 5th , trailing the pc's , ndp , northern Ontario party and greens , the numbers would also indicate the ndp is running stronger in ridings they normally don't do well but still unable to beat the pc's in these seats )


Poll Results

If the election was held today, who would get your vote?


Vic Fedeli, Progressive Conservative
1511 votes 44.69 %



Henri Giroux, New Democratic Party
1311 votes 38.78 %



Stephen Glass, Liberal
132 votes 3.90 %



Trevor Holliday, Northern Ontario Party
208 votes 6.15 %



Bond Keevil, Libertarian Party
33 votes 0.98 %



Kris Rivard, Green Party
186 votes 5.50 %



Total votes: 3381
Added: May 14, 2018 10:40 AM

https://www.baytoday.ca/polls/if-the-election-was-held-today-who-would-get-your-vote-7733
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Ontario provincial election on June 7th

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