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PostPosted: Fri May 04, 2018 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:

Besides, who says you are right about the imbalance of enthusiasm? By my calculus, the Democrats have gone from denial to anger, and should now be entering the stage of resignation as a result of $ucce$$ with Korea and China.

I hope I am wrong;
The US President has exceeded nearly every expectation I could have had on taxation and trade.

A stronger presence in both houses would allow for more to be done quicker.

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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 7:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GOP outsider Blankenship emerges as factor in West Virginia Senate race, ahead of 4 state primaries Tuesday

Joseph Weber By Joseph Weber | Fox News

Blankenship dismisses prison sentence as 'fake prosecution'

Republican Senate hopeful and former Massey Energy CEO says the government blamed coal miners for not doing their jobs.

Candidates in West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana and North Carolina made closing arguments this weekend ahead of key primaries Tuesday -- showing in many ways how Republican hopefuls are aligning behind President Trump while Democrats move to the left in more divided paths that threaten to undermine the party.

Ahead of West Virginia’s GOP primary Tuesday to unseat Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, each of the top three candidates has claimed to be the closest in ideology to Trump. Meanwhile, Don Blankenship has taken direct aim at Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell -- calling him “Cocaine Mitch.” Blankenship apparently has tried to link McConnell to a 2014 news report about drugs purportedly found on a ship owned by his in-laws.

Blankenship also has accused McConnell of creating jobs for "Chinapeople" and said his "China family" has given him millions of dollars. McConnell's wife is Trump's transportation secretary, Elaine Chao, who was born in Taiwan. Her father, entrepreneur and philanthropist James S.C. Chao, was born in China.

The leading GOP candidates are state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and Rep. Evan Jenkins. They have until recently largely ignored Blankenship -- a former coal industry executive who served a year in prison in connection with the Upper Big Branch Mine explosion in West Virginia in 2010 that killed 29 workers.


Dennis Kucinich, left, and Richard Cordray are top candidates in the Ohio Democratic primary for governor.

But this weekend, Morrisey started using “robo-calls” to potential voters saying: “Convicted criminal Don Blankenship didn’t vote for President Trump and is a resident of Nevada, where he must report to his parole officer.”

On Sunday, Morrisey moved to have Blankenship disqualified from the primary for failing to submit a financial disclosure, in violation of election law and perhaps of his probation.

Blankenship’s campaign said the candidate has already spoken to his probation officer, who wasn’t concerned about the financial disclosure.

Washington Republicans have said they thought the Manchin seat was very winnable, based in part on Trump having won the state in 2016 over Democrat Hillary Clinton by 42 percentage points.

The GOP candidates in Ohio have been pushing for change. “I’m tired of the career politicians we have in Washington. That’s why I’m running,” Mike Gibbons, a Republican businessman and first-time candidate trying to unseat Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, told Fox News’ “America’s News HQ” on Saturday.

Such talk likely sounds familiar, considering Trump, a Republican, won the 2016 White House race as a successful businessman and first-time candidate vowing to “drain the swamp” of career politicians in Washington.

Trump has, however, endorsed Ohio Rep. Jim Renacci. And the president on Saturday included the four-term congressman in a public event in Cleveland.

"He’ll be fantastic,” Trump said of Renacci. "We need his vote very badly."

Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a champion of her party's "progressive" wing, is backing Richard Cordray for Ohio governor.

Gibbons, a fundraising co-chairman in Ohio for the 2016 Trump presidential campaign, also told Fox News that the largest personal donation he ever gave to a candidate went to Trump.

Trump won each of the four states holding primaries Tuesday.

In Indiana, Republicans are set to pick from three candidates who have spent much of the race praising Trump and bashing each other, in a bid to unseat Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly.

In attempts to appeal to Trump voters, they’ve adopted the president's harsh immigration rhetoric and penchant for personal insults. The candidates have even channeled Trump by assigning derisive nicknames to one another: “Lyin’ ”Todd Rokita, Luke “Missing” Messer and “Tax Hike” Mike Braun.

Ohio also has a Democratic and Republican primary to replace term-limited GOP Gov. John Kasich.

In the GOP primary, state Attorney General Mike DeWine has a double-digit lead over Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor. Both are Trump-agenda supporters.

The top Democrats in the Ohio governor’s race are former Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Richard Cordray, a former state attorney general and onetime Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director.

Kucinich is backed by Our Revolution, the self-described “next step in the Bernie Sanders' movement.” Cordray is being endorsed by Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who helped start the federal protection bureau.

Warren is a potential 2020 presidential candidate whose efforts to regulate Wall Street have made her a champion of the party’s “progressive” wing.

Sanders, an Independent Vermont senator, ran for president in 2016 as a Democrat. The self-described Democratic socialist is weighing a potential 2020 bid and would very likely compete with Warren for the Democratic Party’s most liberal wing.

Cordray on Saturday downplayed the Warren-Sanders narrative and suggested he was more concerned about connecting with voters, citing his “kitchen table” platform aiming to address concerns such as jobs and health care.

“I don’t think it represents any big split,” he told Fox News. “We’re presenting a case to voters in Ohio.”

Polls have shown the race essentially tied or Cordray having a slight lead. Race handicappers, including the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, have rated the general election contest “lean Republican,” which means the GOP has a slight edge.

Trump won Ohio in 2016 by 8 percentage points, and the state has had a Republican governor for roughly 23 of the past 27 years.

"The far left and the far right always think they are going to dominate these elections," said John Weaver, a Trump critic and top strategist to Kasich. "You may think it's wise in a primary to handuff yourself to the president. But when the ship goes down, you may not be able to get the cuffs off."

Still, primary candidates historically must appeal strongly to their bases to win, before they often try presenting more moderate platforms to win over general election voters.

In North Carolina, GOP Rep. Robert Pittenger faces a primary challenger who almost upset him two years ago. Pittenger features Trump prominently in his campaign. Challenger Mark Harris, a prominent Charlotte pastor, has tried to turn the table, saying Pittenger is a creature of Washington who refuses to help Trump "drain that swamp."

The leading Democrat for the seat is Marine veteran Dan McCready, who has raised almost $2 million, slightly more than Harris and Pittenger combined, in a district Trump won by about 12 percentage points.

Democrats must flip about two dozen Republican-held seats to reclaim a House majority, and they must do it with Republican-run legislatures having drawn many districts to the GOP's advantage.


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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don Blankenship would be a unique choice for the GOP in a winnable riding.
A West Virginia version of Christine O'Donnell.

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PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2018 9:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Voters in both parties snub fringe candidates as they look toward November

By Lukas Mikelionis | Fox News

Morrisey beats Jenkins, Blankenship in West Virginia

State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey wins GOP primary for U.S. Senate in West Virginia; Peter Doocy reports.

Tuesday's GOP primary results showed both Republicans and Democrats moving toward the center as voters look ahead to this fall's midterm elections.

Republicans are looking to increase the party's Senate majority and maintain control of the House, while Democrats snubbed progressive candidates in favor of moderates -- including one who backed Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Businessman wins Indiana GOP Senate primary; Mike Tobin reports.

Mike Braun to face Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly in Indiana

Patrick Morrisey, West Virginia's attorney general, came out the winner of the state's contentious GOP Senate primary, defeating controversial former coal executive Don Blankenship.

In Indiana's GOP Senate primary, businessman Mike Braun, who mostly self-funded his campaign, won against U.S. Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita.

Jim Renacci won the GOP Senate primary in Ohio.

The Ohio results were attributed to the influence of President Trump, who endorsed Renacci over businessman Mike Gibbons.

Trump also made a last-minute appeal to West Virginia voters to reject Blankenship in a bid to avoid the repeat of December's Senate race in Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones turned the deep-red state blue -- for the first time in decades.

"To the great people of West Virginia we have, together, a really great chance to keep making a big difference. Problem is, Don Blankenship, currently running for Senate, can’t win the General Election in your State...No way! Remember Alabama. Vote Rep. Jenkins or A.G. Morrisey" Trump tweeted Monday.

But Tuesday's results also seemed to vindicate Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., the subject of multiple personal attacks during the primaries. Blankenship branded McConnell "Cocaine Mitch" and referring to his Asian-American in-laws as "his China family."

The McConnell team could not hide its glee after the results. They taunted Blankenship with a photo of a smiling McConnell, with the caption reading, "Thanks for playing, Don."

McConnell has long sought to put the Republican house in order before the midterms, admitting that the party faces some tough fights in November.

Congressman Jim Renacci will face off against incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown; Ellison Barber reports from Ohio.

"This is going to be a challenging election year,” McConnell told Kentucky Today in April. “We know the wind is going to be in our face. We don’t know whether it’s going to be a Category 3, 4 or 5.”

But as Republicans show signs of getting serious and choosing candidates that can appeal beyond the Trump voters, Democrats on Tuesday -- much to the chagrin of the progressive base -- favored blue-collar, middle-of-the-road candidates.

In West Virginia's 3rd District, state Sen. Richard Ojeda clinched the victory in the Democratic primary. The win was a defeat for progressive supporters of the party, as Ojeda famously said he backed Trump over Clinton in 2016, the Washington Post reported.

Democrat Richard Cordray, meanwhile, was declared the party's nominee for Ohio governor after he defeated former congressman and ex-Cleveland Mayor Dennis Kucinich.

Kucinich had criticized Cordray as a "Republican-lite" candidate who was too moderate on key issues concerning most Democrats, and was once backed by the National Rifle Association (NRA). Kucinich ran on a platform of single-payer health care, gun control and criminal justice reform.

But Cordray, who once ran the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau under President Barack Obama, fought back and pointed out that Kucinich accepted $20,000 from a group with links to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

“Kucinich bothered me because of the whole Assad thing,” voter Robert Halpin, 57, told the Post. “I didn’t like Cordray because of the NRA. But in the end, weighing it, I don’t like Assad more [than I don’t like the NRA], so I went with Cordray.”

In Indiana's 2nd District, former Republican and health care executive Mel Hall cruised to victory against candidates advocating for universal health care.

Moderate Democrats also won Tuesday in two North Carolina districts, defeating far-left challengers.


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PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 8:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the democrats seem unsure what to do ? now that trumps approval numbers are improving , one has to wonder if not for the Mueller Russia probe might trump even be into positive numbers ? )

Trump's rising approval rating scrambles Dems' midterm strategy

Alex Pappas By Alex Pappas | Fox News

As President Trump’s approval numbers slope upwards, Democrats appear to be losing confidence in the idea they can win back control of Congress just by riding the wave of anti-Trump sentiment.

Last week, the president’s approval in the Real Clear Politics polling average reached its highest point in 14 months, with 44 percent approving of his job performance and 52 percent dissapproving. That eight point gap is the smallest since March 2017, three months after Trump won the presidential election.

“It is definitely moving in our direction, and I think we defy history in these midterms,” New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, the recruitment chairman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Monday on Fox News’ “The Daily Briefing with Dana Perino.”

Historically, the party of the incumbent president loses seats in midterm elections. Republicans hold a slim 51-49 advantage in the Senate. Democrats need to win 24 seats to flip the House.

West Virginia GOP Senate candidate Patrick Morrisey reacts to his primary win for U.S. Senate in West Virginia and offers insight on his campaign against Senator Joe Manchin.

But Democrats admit it's no given they will win back a majority, admitting the political landscape has shifted.

“I think anyone who was proclaiming victory a couple of months ago was premature,” Michigan Rep. Daniel Kildee of Michigan, who is on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee leadership team, told the Washington Post. “I think the president’s standing obviously has some impact.”

Fox News’ most recent polling shows Trump with a 44 percent approval rating, with 53 percent disapproving. That’s an improvement from October, for example, when 38 percent of those approved, and 57 percent disapproved.

In some toss-up Senate races, Trump is quite popular, something Democrats openly acknowledge. In West Virginia’s recent Republican Senate primary, the top three candidates battled each other by arguing they were more committed to enacting the president’s agenda than the others.

Speaking to the Washington Post, incumbent West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin expressed hope that Trump won’t stump much for Republican nominee Patrick Morrisey: “The more he can stay out of West Virginia and direct his energies elsewhere would be helpful.”

Trump touts accomplishments, debuts 2020 slogan in Indiana

Trump’s numbers have improved, as the economy has been thriving and the president has been boasting of the tax reform bill he signed into law late last year. Trump has also seen success abroad, as significant gains have been made in decimating ISIS and the president prepares for a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on denuclearization.

Still, the president remains hampered with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe looking into Russia’s attempted interference in the 2016 election. Some Democrats have pushed for trying to impeach Trump, should their party win back control of the House in November.

During a rally last week after Indiana wrapped up a divisive Republican Senate primary, the president praised a lengthy ticket of House and Senate candidates by name and predicted Democrats would dismantle his agenda if they regained control of Congress.

"You have to work every day between now and November to elect more Republicans so that we can continue to make America great again," Trump said, referencing his 2016 campaign slogan.


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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 12:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

With Primaries starting to wrap up and the shape of various elections finally becoming more clear we starting to see some results of head to head battles;

Two of the TCTC States (To Close to Call) have both the Democrat and GOP candidates now in place and polling has been conducted post primaries in both states.


Has Mike Braun ahead within the MoE of Joe Donnelly

West Virginia:

Has Patrick Morrisey ahead of Joe Manchin within the MoE

There may be something to this turning tide of the Presidents Popularity,
Granted its very early.

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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 3:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's probable that there are more people intending to vote for the Trump-led Republicans than will say so to a pollster.

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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 3:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
It's probable that there are more people intending to vote for the Trump-led Republicans than will say so to a pollster.

That's a very good point;
Many pollsters are repackaging the "Shy Tory Factor" as the "Shy Trump Voter Factor"

Indiana and to a lesser extent West Virginia should be seats the GOP would be targeting given the PVI factor breaks GOP as much as it does.

If there is a small block (even 1-2%) of "Shy" voters it could be a very strong night for the GOP by way of the Senate.

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PostPosted: Tue May 22, 2018 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GOP Surges to 2018 Generic Ballot Lead in New Reuters Poll
Guy Benson |Posted: May 22, 2018 10:45 AM

Oh My: GOP Surges to 2018 Generic Ballot Lead in New Reuters Poll

As Cortney mentioned yesterday, a new CBS News poll shows yet another uptick in Americans' economic optimism, with 64 percent of voters describing the US economy has 'very' or 'somewhat' good, and even more -- 68 percent -- giving partial or "a great deal" of credit to President Trump. That same survey of likely voters also measured a variant of the generic Congressional ballot, confirming the still-tightening trajectory of that election year metric:

Guy Benson

CBS poll: 45% of likely voters prefer Democrats win this year, while 43% favor Republicans (D+2). It's not a pure generic ballot question, but it's close. Same poll shows 68% crediting Trump somewhat or a great deal for the economy, about which most Americans are optimistic.

9:38 AM - May 21, 2018
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It's a strange way to ask the question, but when you add up the options, it's a topline Democratic lead of just two points. This is exactly why the party is growing anxious about its slipping fortunes. My typical cautionary note about how quickly the winds can shift, as well as this analysis of the Trump-era off-year and special election results, still remain firmly in place -- but there's a reason why sharp election-watchers are beginning to grow more skeptical of the Democrats' ability to win back the House (and are increasingly confident of the GOP's likelihood of retaining the Senate). UPDATE: Oh my:

Chris Kahn
Say good-bye to the D-advantage in the generic ballot. Our latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that registered voters as likely to support Republicans as Democrats. @ReutersPolitics https://bit.ly/2LlzrlJ

2:49 PM - May 21, 2018
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That was yesterday. Today? The GOP is up six points in this series. Color me a bit skeptical, and these numbers will bounce around regardless, but Republicans haven't led on this question in any major in roughly two years, so it's worth flagging. What explains this see-saw back toward Republicans? As someone once said, it's the economy, stupid:

STEW 🇺🇸🐶 ⚾️
Gallup: 67% of Americas believe that now is a good time to find a quality job in the U.S., the highest % in 17 years of Gallup polling. Optimism about the availability of good jobs has grown by 25 percentage points since Donald Trump was elected president.http://bit.ly/2kbJnC3

6:25 AM - May 21, 2018

Optimism About Availability of Good Jobs Hits New Heights
Optimism about the U.S. job market is at a 17-year high, with 67% of Americans saying now is a good time to find a quality job.

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If you're keeping track at home, we've hit a 11-year high, a 13-year high, and a 17-year high on overall or economic national outlook in three distinct polls published over the last week or so. That said, it would be insane for Republicans to feel even remotely assured that their majorities will remain intact after November. Improved polling and stronger presidential approval numbers are undoubtedly significant data points, but those strides could be mitigated or wiped out by a strong Democratic intensity gap (via Axios):

A new NBC News/WSJ poll reveals that 66% of Democrats have a "high level of interest" in this fall's midterm elections — compared to 49% of Republicans. Flashback: This is a mirror image of Republican enthusiasm ahead of the 2010 midterms, which resulted in a Tea Party sweep in Congress. At that time, the same NBC/WSJ poll showed that 66% of Republicans had a "high level of interest" compared to 49% of Democrats. [....]

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PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 11:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Democrats' 'blue wave' in doubt as generic ballot lead dries up

Adam Shaw By Adam Shaw | Fox News

Pelosi insists that tax cuts didn't help average Americans

Will the Democrats' messaging on the economy hurt them during the midterms? Fox Business Network's Charles Payne reacts.

Back in January, Democrats confidently predicted a "blue wave" would wipe out Republican control of Congress in this year's midterms -- as polls showed a massive lead for the party in the so-called generic ballot.

This forecast is looking less certain as that lead shrinks by the week, with one poll even showing Republicans on top.

The "generic" ballot asks voters which party they plan to support, without getting into specific candidates. As recently as April, a Reuters poll showed Democrats with a 13-point lead. Some Democrats cited various surveys, including a CNN poll in December that showed an 18-point lead, as proof that they'd at least claim the House in November.

But that lead has all but disappeared, with Reuters' latest poll showing a slight Republican edge of less than 2 percent. The trend is reflected in other polls. A CNN poll this month showed the Democratic lead at just 3 percent, down from 16 percent in February.

The change in attitude comes as the economy continues to do well and as Democratic leaders struggle to corral their members into focusing on a message that goes beyond anti-Trump rhetoric and Russia.

The results of recent primaries where liberal candidates beat moderate rivals have also changed the general election landscape. Fox News' Power Rankings updated ratings this week to reflect a Republican advantage in several races.


House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, for her part, has urged the liberal flank of her party to move away from impeachment talk and focus instead on economic issues that affect everyday Americans -- a move that has led to backlash from some quarters.

“It comes down to an economic message,” Pelosi said in an interview this month. “The financial instability of American families is something that needs to be addressed."

Should Democrats change their midterm strategy? Strategists Ned Ryun and Richard Goodstein debate on 'Fox & Friends First.'

Pelosi also said this month that she would work to roll back the Trump tax cuts if they retake Congress, a statement Republicans have cited as proof that Democrats want to raise taxes.

"Now you’ve heard it straight from Nancy Pelosi’s mouth: if Democrats take back the House and she’s reinstalled as Speaker, your taxes will go up," a National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman said in a statement.

On Monday, the Democrats unveiled a plan to highlight alleged corruption in the Trump administration.


“Instead of delivering on his promise to drain the swamp, President Trump has become the swamp,” Pelosi said, according to The Washington Post.

But as Democrats try to sharpen their message, leaders also have to deal with a brewing civil war.

Pollster and Fox News contributor Doug Schoen pointed to Tuesday’s primary contests that he says show how progressives are overwhelmingly beating more moderate primary opponents.

“Overall, Tuesday’s results prove that the problematic trend of far-left progressives winning Democratic primaries over moderate centrists continues, showing that the party is more divided than ever,” he wrote. “It is time to move forward with a plan that unifies, rather than divides the party, or squander the opportunity to retake either chamber of Congress in November.”

In the meantime, Rep. Lieu -- who predicted the megatsumani in December -- is taking a different approach, and is now downplaying the generic ballot as a means to forecast the November race.

“Do folks still think the national generic ballot means anything?" he asked. “It’s the individual districts that matter. And in those districts, Democrats are crushing it.”

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2018 - US Midterm Elections

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