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cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whoever is creating the Liberal legislative priorities is certainly doing them no favors.

The LGR was a huge issue in rural Canada, one that in part led to the demise of the Federal Liberals in many rural ridings. Its an issue that energizes voters in those ridings.

Even a wiff if any portion of the LGR no matter how small hurts the Liberals in ridings that ultimately secured them their majority.

These are moves that excite your base and motivates opposition voters in swing ridings.
The issue is it doesn't matter how much of a margin you win University—Rosedale or Mount Royal by you still only get one MP.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Whoever is creating the Liberal legislative priorities is certainly doing them no favors.

The LGR was a huge issue in rural Canada, one that in part led to the demise of the Federal Liberals in many rural ridings. Its an issue that energizes voters in those ridings.

Even a wiff if any portion of the LGR no matter how small hurts the Liberals in ridings that ultimately secured them their majority.

These are moves that excite your base and motivates opposition voters in swing ridings.
The issue is it doesn't matter how much of a margin you win University—Rosedale or Mount Royal by you still only get one MP.




unless there goal is to try and win Quebec and maintain there hold on urban Canada . perhaps they've decided the liberals have no chance in most of the rural ridings ?


that would seem to be the case based on results in by elections in alberta and Saskatchewan in rural ridings

even in Ontario most of there seats are more urban or suburban in nature with the exception of a few up north


I actually think this bill is a sign the liberals will literally do anything to try and hold onto power . things will continue to get worse as we get closer to 2019 , we should expect more of this and more legislation targeting groups trudeau personally dislikes

like we saw with the summer job funding rule targeting religious groups who were unwilling to say they supported abortion and such

things will continue to get worse as trudeau's government continues to lose its lusture and fall in the polls
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

back to the angus reid poll , there is interesting numbers from the east coast , large sample sizes of 300 voters for each province other than pei


Nova Scotia - 40 lib , 35 cpc , 21 ndp , 4 green

only a 5 % lead for the liberals in NS and they'll likely have to deal with a number of retirements here due to age and length of service of some mp's , clearly a number of ridings that could go cpc or ndp



New Brunswick - 44 lib , 34 cpc , 12 ndp , 8 green

only a 10 point lead for the liberals who hold all the seats in NB , some softer seats will be more challenging to hold on with these numbers



Newfoundland - 52 lib , 23 cpc , 21 ndp , 3 green

the liberals still maintain a fairly large lead here , cpc has a lot of work to do in this province to re built support
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You should bear in mind the margin of error in the provincial samples is much higher than it would be in the larger national sample.

I think your comment about the LIberals aiming at Quebec, and writing off a considerable vote in rural English-speaking Canada is very shrewd. That must be it.

God I wish I had some power over a budget or two and could play this game on the other side. Do they really think this is how you do it?

I would have Bernier on a tree-stump somewhere if I had to, talking about freedom and respect for other people's freedom, and how the murder rate is 0.3 in Quebec City ... and how that's due to the respect Quebeckers feel for their fellow human beings. and how NOT NEEDING GUN CONTROL IS A SIGN OF A HIGH CIVILIZATION.

it's OK to go overboard on a tree-stump.

And i would be looking for other Bernies to help. Wanna bet it wouldn't work?


Last edited by Bugs on Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:07 am; edited 1 time in total
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
You should bear in mind the margin of error in the provincial samples is much higher than it would be in the larger national sample.



its still a large sample 300 voters for each province for a total of 900 , some national polls only poll that many for the entire country
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
Bugs wrote:
You should bear in mind the margin of error in the provincial samples is much higher than it would be in the larger national sample.



its still a large sample 300 voters for each province for a total of 900 , some national polls only poll that many for the entire country


What is the margin of error? As I calculate it, the margin of error in a sample of 300 drawn from a population of a million would be about 6% -- that plus or minus 6%! If the population were larger, the margin of error would be larger.

I only say this to put the info in perspective. You can't rule out the possibilitiy that these changes are way smaller or way bigger than the headline number.

What I see over at Angus Reid is a huge hole developing. The voters over 35 have done a re-assessment of Justin. 35% of the whole sample strongly disapprove of Justin Trudeau as PM of Canada. Only 8% strongly approve. Even 10% of 2017 Liberal voters strongly disapprove of him.

But Scheer's approval ratings have only risen 4% since early 2017. When asked who would be the best PM, 40%-ish answered they didn't know! That means it isn't Justin.

I say nothing ...

There's a lot more at: http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-march2018/
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Liberal approval rating drops to 44% as women, middle-class look to Tories: Ipsos poll

By Rahul Kalvapalle
National Online Journalist Global News


Discontent with the Trudeau Liberals has grown to such a level that if a federal election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would romp to a comfortable win.


That’s according to a new Ipsos poll that found the Liberals to be hemorrhaging support even among their target demographics, namely the middle-class, women and millennials, with many progressives increasingly weighing up a vote for the NDP.

Overall, 56 per cent of the 1,003 Canadians surveyed for the poll said the Liberals have fallen short of expectations, with 60 per cent saying it’s time for them to make way for another federal party.

Only 5 per cent said the Trudeau government exceeded their expectations.


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may have a gender-balanced cabinet, but it’s the Conservative party that’s doing best with female voters.

Thirty-five per cent of women say they’d vote for the Conservatives, with the Liberals snagging 30 per cent and the NDP not far behind at 26 per cent.

The Conservatives also enjoy an advantage across income groups, with their lead increasing steadily with income. Their lead over the Liberals stands at three percentage points among people making $40,000 or less, and sits at a healthy 14 per cent in the $100,000+ income range.

NOTEBOOK: In 240 Facebook ads, the Conservatives take aim at 16 Liberal MPs

As far as age groups go, the Conservatives are comfortably (47 per cent) the preferred party of people aged 55 and over, with the Liberals lagging well behind at 30 per cent and the NDP at 16 per cent. The Tories also have a nine percentage point lead over Gen Xers, or people aged 35-54.

Millennials are the only demographic group that favour the Liberals, but with 33 per cent approval to the NDP’s 31 per cent, the lead is slim to say the least. The Conservatives sit at 24 per cent.

“[The Liberals] seem to be losing middle-class supporters to the Conservatives, and they seem to be losing that millennial group of the population to the NDP,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Affairs. “So progressive voters are splitting again. And when progressive voters split, that’s when conservatives win.

“Whatever the Liberals have been doing in terms of their targeting doesn’t seem to have panned out.”


The province-by-province number breakdown also makes for worrisome reading for the Liberals.

The Conservatives enjoy a huge lead in the country’s most popular province, Ontario, where they enjoy 42 per cent of the decided vote. The NDP are second with 27 per cent, and the Liberals third just one point behind. Bricker puts the Ontario numbers down to “probably a combination of what’s happening provincially, but also people’s reactions to the federal government’s positions generally have swung over to the Conservatives.”

In each of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, over half of respondents said they’d vote Conservative, with Bricker labeling the prairies a “dead zone” for the Liberals.


Indeed, the only regions in which the Liberals are competitive are Quebec, where they have 40 per cent of the decided vote to the Conservatives’ 22 per cent and the NDP’s 18 per cent, and Atlantic Canada, where they enjoy 47 per cent support compared to the Tories’ 26 per cent and NDP’s 22 per cent.

“The only region they lead in is Atlantic Canada, but there aren’t enough seats there to make a difference,” Bricker said. “The new way to win in Canadian politics is when the West gets together with particularly suburban Ontario. That’s a winning combination.”

As for the causes behind the Liberals’ slide, Bricker says that while the government has generally had a difficult six months or so, it was the prime minister’s troubled trip to India that looks to be the straw that broke the camel’s back.


“What it seems to have done is created a bit of a bursting of the dam. I think there was a fair amount of discomfort with the direction of the government, which had built up behind that dam over probably the last six months starting to back when they tried to change taxation policy for small business,” Bricker said.

“Outside of an election campaign, you tend not to see numbers move as quickly as these numbers have moved, and the trigger point seems to have been that trip to India.”


The Liberals’ loss has to some extent been the NDP’s gain, with NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s woes over alleged ties to Sikh separatists not preventing his party from enjoying a 2 per cent bump.

“That shows that progressive voters are evaluating some of their choices at the moment and that’s very dangerous for the Liberal Party, because if the NDP becomes stronger and the Conservatives are where they are right now, it’s very difficult for the Liberals to win from there,” Bricker said.

But he also suggested that Singh and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer shouldn’t be too quick to pat themselves on the back.

“What all this shows is that this is basically about Mr. Trudeau and the government, it’s got very little to do with the leaders of the opposition parties,” he said, adding that Singh’s troubles haven’t yet earned him the wrath of respondents because “what they’re really looking at is the prime minister and his government.”


And respondents aren’t happy with what they’re seeing. The proportion of Canadians who say the country is on the right track is 49 per cent — down eight points since early January. Meanwhile, the proportion of Canadians who say things are going downhill is up eight points to 51 per cent.

“What we’ve seen is a course correction for the government in the negative direction. Now 44 per cent isn’t tragic… remember, Justin Trudeau only won about 39 per cent of the vote in the last election. But it’s the trend that’s the problem,” Bricker said.


“They need to find a way to reconnect with Canadians, because whatever was working for them back in 2015 — and certainly at least the first 18 months of their mandate — seems to have gone in the other direction. They need to find a way to reconnect with the Canadian population and adjust their priorities to match the priorities of the population overall.

“There’s a misalignment between the priorities that the government has and the priorities that Canadians have. And that’s what their challenge is going to be — how do they align those things back up?”

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between March 21 and 23, 2018, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,003 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources. Quota sampling and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled.


https://globalnews.ca/news/4104673/trudeau-liberals-approval-rating-down/
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with the sun this is a government in need of a major reset , not a new gun bill . an actual reset , maybe a new staff in the PMO and some new blood in cabinet , plus a focus on issues that actually matter to Canadians not extreme left wing liberal activists )


EDITORIAL: Trudeau's in need of a major reset


Postmedia News


Published:
March 25, 2018


Updated:
March 25, 2018 10:40 PM EDT


Filed Under:

Toronto SUN ›
Opinion ›
Editorials ›



All is not well in Canada’s Camelot. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is suffering the mid-term blues and Liberals are wondering what the future has in store for them.

The polls show they’d lose an election if one were held now. No wonder Liberal MPs manned the barricades for the recent all-night filibuster, which would have seen an election triggered had they lost even one of the 250 motion votes.

The gender-lens budget fell flat, receiving condemnation from business circles for its lack of focus on the economy. It appears the public didn’t bite either. Canadians’ patience with deficits outside of a recession is growing thin.

Trudeau’s gone from international darling to, at times, laughingstock. Whether it’s the peoplekind nonsense or the much more serious India trip fiasco, both the world and Canadians are adjusting the way they look at our prime minister.

Meanwhile, the mounting stories of Trudeau’s warm approach to characters, such as Omar Khadr and Joshua Boyle grate on people’s nerves.

This is music to the ears of new opposition leaders Andrew Scheer and Jagmeet Singh.

They’re eager to showcase their wares to the voter.

Yet, there is still a year and a half left in this term. Trudeau could still turn it around. To do this though, he will need a major reset.

We’re not talking about proroguing Parliament. This is a mechanism used by many political leaders to reset the legislative agenda.

That said, if Trudeau wants to prorogue and then offer up a throne speech that disavows deficits, divisive identity politics and being soft on terror, we’d gladly take it.

No, what’s at issue now is tone and balance.

As Liberal leader, Trudeau wisely campaigned on looking out for the middle class.

Canadians of all walks of life want to provide for their families and know the public services they rely upon will be there for them when they need them.

The Liberals initially balanced this well. Then they became consumed with far-left antics that just don’t speak to the concerns of the average voter, like how one Liberal MP accused a Conservative counterpart of the toxic academic term “white privilege.”

Pivot away from these issues and more to the bread and butter ones that Liberal voters thought they were getting.


http://torontosun.com/opinion/.....ajor-reset
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Along the same line, this from the Globe & Mail.

Quote:
Justin Trudeau is losing the male voter. Can the PM win him back?
Mar 25 2018 — Campbell Clark — Globe and Mail
Why has the Justin Trudeau lost his big popularity advantage? Because of the gender gap. Men aren’t sticking with the Liberal program. The Prime Minister who trumpets that he is a feminist and who appointed a gender-balanced cabinet still leads a party that’s most popular among women, according to regular polling by Nanos Research.


What is peculiar is that one poll says the Liberals are losing women voters, and the other says its men. The pollsters think they can do something about it, and the public just stands around to see if they can. It all depends on getting the right ad.

I don't think so.

My feeling is that the national mood is changing very rapidly. Trudeau is 'up' on a celebrity's fantasy life -- it's like a drug high, I imagine, quite intoxicating to be adored by the workers dining in Food Courts everywhere. Trudeau enchanted them, and the Liberals passed up an astronaut to get Trudeau. He is less the leader of the party than its' "brand".

But the enchanted ones have felt a disturbance in The Force.

The Liberals were a wrecked party that had lost its original organizing principal. The wreckage was picked up by a shallow man who promised to return us to a golden age, when the welfare state was new and there was lots of "other people's money" to spend. The public thought they had the Jedi they needed.

But he was less Luke Skywalker and more George Clooney. Better, he was like a reverse Rupaul, a male impersonator.

Our Justin entered with a Grand Jete] but had hardly got to his arabesque when Trump got elected. NAFTA came under a shadow. He posed as the champion of Social Justice ... but it's hard, you know, to rally the poor when you have to make do with only two nannies.

Jeez, I wish people could see what a clown show this really is. No, Justin has jumped the shark, his bubble has popped, the emperor has no clothes ... the only thing holding him up is the lack of a dynamic figure in opposition.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2018 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

IR Poll is showing the same trend;

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/global-news-fed-vote-march-26-2018
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
For Trudeau, a normal mid-mandate slump in the polls? Not really
The Liberals' slump in the polls is not unheard of at this stage of their mandate, but it is far from routine
Éric Grenier · CBC News · Posted: Apr 03, 2018 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: an hour ago

Justin Trudeau's Liberals are slumping in the polls, just a little more than two years after coming to power with a majority government.

With some 19 months to go before the next federal election, the numbers shouldn't be sending Liberals into a panic just yet. Single-term majority governments are rare.

But the Liberals also shouldn't shrug this off as a normal mid-mandate slump — for the simple reason that mid-mandate slumps aren't normal.

According to the CBC Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all publicly available polling data, the Liberals have dropped about five percentage points since the 2015 election. That puts them three points behind Andrew Scheer's Conservatives.

While it isn't rare for governments to outlast their welcome or experience losses in the polls, new administrations typically don't see their support dip at the 29 to 31 month mark in the mandate, where the Trudeau Liberals are today. Instead, they have been more likely than not to see their support grow at that point.

Five of Trudeau's seven predecessors who were in office for at least 2.5 years (John Turner, Kim Campbell and Paul Martin were not) were doing better in the polls at this stage in their mandate than in the election that brought them to power. [....]
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politic.....-1.4597222


Pollsters pride themselves on their bloodlessness. Just the facts ... but the truth is that the Liberals' have a deplorable record. We were told that a few $billion spent on infrastructure was all we needed to make our economy dynamic again. But where are all these infrastructure improvements? The spending has gone elsewhere. We seem to be getting a lift out of the American economy's energy.

In the meantime, Trump has made the US economy far more competitive. He cut the corporate tax rate dramatically, for one thing, and has amped up depreciation rules to allow companies to build and grow and to write off the costs faster. As it turns out, he is using the threat of a trade war to re-negotiate trade deals. Our economic context is changing radically before our eyes, and the people are noticing how plodding and confused the Trudeau team is.

I don't think this will be easily reversed by some sunny announcement about a new benefit ... or even an actual major national infrastructure project that would justify itself. In another post, I laid out what a disaster that this same group of policy experts made of Ontario. They look like now they're going to do it on a national scale.

I suspect these poll results show a loss of faith. These results violate the normal pattern. We know, as citizens, the Trudeau is growing tiresome, repetitive, and dishonest People aren't listening to him anymore. But what pollster wants to go that far?

All that is lacking is a dynamic figure who can confront Trudeau with his record.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Ontario election will at least lend some clarity to the the idea of if running deficits is now viewed as acceptable by the electorate.

While the Federal Liberals ran and won on the idea in 2015, it could be argued that Harper was so unpopular that the platform the Liberals ran on was secondary.

The OLP is trying the same approach in 2018 as the federal party in 2015.
If the Ontario Liberals lose and lose in a significant fashion it could easily be argued that the Ontario Electorate is legitimately tiring of deficits on record revenue at the Federal Level as well.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I scanned the electronic media for columns on the Ontario election promises, and it doesn't seem as if many of them can find a lot of good words to say about the budget.

They may not be thrilled about Ford, but the budget shatters the reporter's willing suspension of disbelief. It's as if this budget marks the limit of the welfare state. They're giving the whole province the same Employee Benefit Package as the civil service! And nobody believes that!
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( is anyone really surprised the Nanos poll has the liberals back in front , considering every Nanos poll since 2015 has had the liberals ahead often by large margins )


Poll showing Liberal rebound has signs of softer support



Liberals shouldn't celebrate just yet — their party and leader have taken a hit


Éric Grenier · CBC News · Posted: Apr 17, 2018 1:20 PM ET | Last Updated: 3 hours ago


Though the Liberals are back to a previous high in support in a new poll, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's personal numbers have gotten worse. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)


756 comments


A new poll suggests the federal Liberals have recovered from their post-India slump, regaining a commanding lead over the Conservatives.

It also indicates that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's base of support has gotten softer — a sign that his ill-fated trip to the subcontinent might have had a longer-term impact.

The new survey by Nanos Research puts the Liberals at 41 per cent support, followed by the Conservatives at 29 per cent and the New Democrats at 16 per cent. The Greens and Bloc Québécois posted eight and four per cent support, respectively.


On the face of it, that result represents a broad shift from where the polls placed the Liberals in the weeks following Trudeau's visit to India — a diplomatic mission plagued by widely-mocked wardrobe choices and the unfortunate decision to invite a man convicted of attempted murder to some official events.

In the first weeks of March, Abacus Data pegged the Liberal lead over the Conservatives at just three points. Léger put the two parties in a tie. Twice, Ipsos/Global News put the Conservatives ahead — its latest survey put the gap at seven points — and the Angus Reid Institute has awarded Andrew Scheer's party a 10-point edge.


But throughout this period, Nanos never put the Conservatives in front.
The pollster's four-week rolling surveys of 1,000 Canadians (every week another 250 respondents are added to the sample as the 250 respondents polled four weeks earlier are dropped) have given the Liberals a lead in every week's release since the 2015 federal election. The closest the margin has been was 1.1 points, in the four-week poll ending on Mar. 16.

Methodology could explain the variation. Abacus, Léger, Ipsos and the Angus Reid Institute conduct their polls online, while Nanos polls over the phone.

This poll also could be an indication that the impact of the India trip on the Liberals' support was a short, sharp shock — something picked up by polling in the week or two running up to Mar. 16 but swamped by the Liberals' strong pre-India polling in the four-week average.

Perhaps the Liberals have regained the support they lost in early March, but one survey won't be enough to tell us. It will take subsequent polling from other firms to get a clearer picture.

In the meantime, the CBC Poll Tracker splits the difference. It finds the Liberals and Conservatives in a tie, though the Liberals are in a better position to win more seats.

But what the Nanos poll does show is that the Liberals shouldn't be popping champagne corks just yet. Despite the wide lead on voting intentions, a number of other metrics have gotten worse for the governing party.

Liberal support looks softer now

The last time the Liberals were at 41 per cent in Nanos's polling was in the survey ending on Jan. 5, which put the party 10 points ahead of the Conservatives. Other surveys in the field at around that time were showing similar numbers.

But while the Liberals may be doing just as well among decided voters as they were a little more than three months ago, their wider universe of supporters has gotten smaller.


On the question of who Canadians think would make the best prime minister, Trudeau now scores 39 per cent. That's down six points from his score in January. That still puts him 16 points ahead of Scheer (another indication that the Liberals' recent woes are largely self-inflicted, rather than due to a surge of popularity for the Conservative leader) but it means that Trudeau is now scoring lower than the Liberal party itself does among decided voters.

According to the latest survey, Nanos finds that 51 per cent of Canadians would consider voting Liberal, compared to 44 per cent for the Conservatives and 36 per cent for the NDP. But that's also down six points for the Liberals from Jan. 5.

And while 55 per cent of Canadians surveyed recently said that Trudeau has the "qualities of a good leader" — better than Scheer's 40 per cent and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's 34 per cent — that number is down a sizeable 11 points from Jan. 5.

More polling will be required before a Liberal rebound in voting intentions can be confirmed or debunked. But the results on some of the other questions asked every week by Nanos suggest that the Liberal party and the prime minister himself have taken a hit — which is in line with what other polls have found.

That could signal the Liberals' support has gotten softer, making them more vulnerable in the future.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/politic.....-1.4623115
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A more dynamic leader would do a lot for us right now.
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Conservatives would beat Libs: Poll

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