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cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Poll for anyone interested;
http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....vember.pdf

While it has the Tories ahead it still has the LPC ahead on seat count. (148 Vs 164)

Its promising that the Tories are in the 30s on Atlantic Canada;
Its also nice to see a lead that goes Ontario all the way West (All be it the lead in Ontario is 1).

The concern I have is the NDP numbers;
I don't believe they are 30 points behind the CPC in BC and I am not sure if I buy the NDP @ 15 in Ontario.
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 6555
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Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
The Poll for anyone interested;
http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....vember.pdf

While it has the Tories ahead it still has the LPC ahead on seat count. (148 Vs 164)

Its promising that the Tories are in the 30s on Atlantic Canada;
Its also nice to see a lead that goes Ontario all the way West (All be it the lead in Ontario is 1).

The concern I have is the NDP numbers;
I don't believe they are 30 points behind the CPC in BC and I am not sure if I buy the NDP @ 15 in Ontario.



the poll does have some odd numbers , has the cpc at 74 % in man/sask , no doubt there leading but that seemed high .

but in general there numbers are in line with other polls , liberals leading in atlantic Canada and Quebec . cpc leading in alberta and western Canada , with Ontario close to tied

they also show the ndp fighting with the greens in some regions for 3rd place , have the greens slightly ahead of the ndp in atlantic Canada and in BC have them both at 12 % . an election at this time would be a nightmare for the ndp as there not doing good anywhere and have no regional strength even in places they hold seats

but 15 % in Ontario seems reasonable as the federally ndp have been polling less than provincial ndp which I believe is in mid 20% , so that would seem reasonable to me ,
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