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cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Mar 31, 2017 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:

the most shocking according to forum , based on a small sample of 200 people from the 905 , ( overall 820 from Ontario for entire poll ) the liberals are only polling 12 % in the 905 , compared to 47 % for the pc's and 31 % for ndp . those numbers would represent a loss of pretty much everything in York , Halton , Durham and maybe even Peel regions . which would resemble the make up we saw in 95 and 99 elections when pc's swept those areas entirely


Peel Region usually goes in the direction of Government;
My thought would be that if the PCs won big every Halton and Peel Seat (save for Bramalea—Gore—Malton) would go PC.

Maybe I am just being optimistic :)

RCO wrote:
Kathleen Wynne's approval stands at 12 % province wide , but even among women its only 13 % and 75 % disapprove .
among 35-44 year olds only 7 % approve of wynne , 55- 65 only 8 % approve , a shocking 83 % disapprove .

those numbers are so low how could she possibly continue forward as leader ?


When the OLP numbers started free-falling I thought the same thing;
Why continue with Wynne when there is potentially little path forward.

However, with that said the question that has to be asked is will a new leader make a difference?

I don't even mean winning at this point, I simply mean keeping even half of their existing caucus?

Lets say they hold a new race and elect Charles Sousa (For the sake of argument) and he walks into 2018 and leads the OLP to a result of around 28-30 seats with the PCs rolling in at 70 and the NDP at 22-24

Essentially successful compared to polling today as they are the largest opposition party and they maintain party status

Its still a loss of around 30 MPPs and a loss of government;

Should he step down after that?

Dalton McGuinty lost his first election in 1999, but grew the party in the process.
In this case A new leader is almost certain to be wearing a historic loss.
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Apr 07, 2017 1:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( I'm starting to wonder if wynne has lost touch with reality ? as she is apparently not even taking the poor showing in the polls seriously and even making jokes about it )




Ont. premier jokes about lousy showing in polls

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne (STAN BEHAL/Postmedia Network)


Shawn Jeffords, Political Bureau Chief
Apr 4, 2017
, Last Updated: 8:58 PM ET


TORONTO — If Kathleen Wynne could change one thing about her job, what would it be?

The premier was asked that question while participating in a “fireside chat” with the Long Term Care Association members Tuesday. It didn’t take her long to think of something.

“You want the first thing that comes to my mind — the polls,” Wynne said, laughing. “Just sayin’.”

The crowd at the conference, and the premier, got a good laugh from her candour, but the polls haven’t been all that funny in recent weeks. A string of them have indicated bad news could be ahead for the Wynne Liberals in the 2018 election.

A Forum poll last week concluded the Grits would face a humiliating defeat — losing official party status — if an election were held now. The Liberals are sitting at 19% support, polling third behind the Progressive Conservatives and New Democrats in the 416 area, and trending to win only seven of 122 seats.

An Angus Reid poll released on March 24 put Wynne’s personal approval rating at 12%. The poll also found a majority of Ontarians find their hydro bills “very unreasonable” and fear selling off Hydro One will only force electricity prices higher, explaining the reason why the premier’s approvals have sunk from a high of 41% in September 2014.

A Forum poll from March 17 shows that the Progressive Conservatives lead in Toronto over the Liberals has jumped four percentage points in the last month — with 36% of those polled saying they’d vote Tory in the 2018 election, compared to 31% for the Grits.

http://cnews.canoe.com/CNEWS/C.....15669.html
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( wynne has 2 budgets left before the next election and its clear there both going to be political tools aimed to boost her fortune . with claims the budget is balanced even though the province is still massively in debt , considering they've had a majority for almost 3 years . never little of significance has come out of this legislature )




Sousa’s budgeting is smoke and mirrors


First posted: Thursday, April 13, 2017 06:07 PM EDT



Charles Sousa
Ontario Finance Minister Charles Sousa smiles at a news conference in Toronto on March 22, 2017. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn)


Ontario Finance Minister Charles Sousa seems like a pleasant person, but he reminds us of a used car salesman whenever he’s selling his upcoming budget.

One who doesn’t want you looking under the hood too closely while he’s making his sales pitch.

On Thursday, Sousa boasted to The Empire Club that his fifth budget on April 27 will demonstrate that, “Ontario is the leanest government with the lowest per capita spending of any province.”

Um, that’s been true for Ontario governments going back decades.

Since Ontario has the largest population of any province, it also has the advantage of economies of scale when delivering public services.

The Bill Davis Progressive Conservative government, for example, made exactly the same boast in 1981-82 that Sousa made Thursday.

When the Liberals are in power, they always boast about delivering services at the lowest per capita cost of any province.

When they’re out of power, they always blame the party in power for not spending enough on government services. (In fairness, all parties do it.)

What Sousa didn’t say is that the Liberals have more than doubled Ontario’s debt to over $300 billion since coming to power in 2003, which has made Ontario the most indebted sub-sovereign (non-national) borrower in the world.

He didn’t say the Auditor General and Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office have warned the Liberals that they have plunged the province into precarious levels of debt.

Sousa claimed the Liberal scheme to borrow even more money from Ontario taxpayers to subsidize the electricity bills of hydro ratepayers — even though they’re the same people — is “fairer because it doesn’t ask today’s generation alone to pay the entire freight.”

That argument turns generations of fiscally prudent thinking — that you don’t stick future generations with huge bills to pay for today’s services — on its head.

Finally, Sousa repeated, for the umpteenth time, that this year’s budget will be balanced, later adding along with “next year and the year after that.”

Two problems. First, Sousa’s promising to balance a budget that won’t come down until after the next Ontario election in 2018.

Second, in 2003, then Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty promised before the election not to raise our taxes.

And we all remember what happened after he won.

http://www.torontosun.com/2017.....nd-mirrors
Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just curious -- do you believe Sousa? I think he's a good looking and convivial guy, with a lot of appeal that way, but ... do you believe a word of this baloney?

Will the budget be balanced? What did the teachers get -- 4% across the board?

If it is, will it be because of the sale of assets, or will it be because he has drawn down spending, and/or increased revenues?

As of March 31, 20l17 that had borrowed $27 billion to get through the year -- about $2000 for every man, woman and child in Ontario. That's about the size of the Federal deficit. But bear in mind, at one time Sousa was saying that his budget was on track to eliminate the deficit in 2016-2017. Say, that would be this budget!
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( an interesting article from the star , seems the liberals are in a state of chaos , internal polling is dismal , fundraising is not going well , candidate recruitment is proving difficult and up to a dozen mpp's are considering not running again )


Speculation building over Wynne’s future as Liberal leader


Liberal fundraising is not going well, recruitment is proving difficult and the polls still have Premier Kathleen Wynne in third place.


Premier Kathleen Wynne during question period at Queen's Park, February 21, 2017. The premier's unpopularity is hurting the party, Liberals say.



By Robert BenzieQueen's Park Bureau Chief

Tues., April 18, 2017



Will she or won’t she?

Speculation about whether Premier Kathleen Wynne can continue to lead the governing Liberals is at a f‎ever pitch.

Party stalwarts are hoping next week’s balanced ‎budget from Finance Minister Charles Sousa will tip the scales for Wynne’s teetering political fortunes.

But with public and private polling showing the Liberals languishing in third place well behind the Progressive Conservatives and the New Democrats — even after Wynne’s 25 per cent cut in residential electricity rates — there is mounting uncertainty she will remain at the helm.

The Ontario Liberal Party’s chief fundraiser, Zak Bailey, has quietly resigned just seven months into a job made even more challenging by campaign finance reforms triggered by a Star series last year.

“You’d have to ask the party what their plans are,” Bailey said Monday, declining further comment.

Sources say Liberal fundraising is not going well — now that corporate and union donations have been banned — and that riding associations are rattled.

Recruiting a candidate for a byelection expected this summer in Liberal-held Sault Ste. Marie is proving difficult — to say nothing of attracting scores of Grit standard-bearers for the June 7, 2018 election.

If the premier is unable to pull her personal poll numbers out of a tailspin before the House rises in six weeks then salvaging a Liberal administration that dates back to 2003 could be daunting without a leadership change.

“I like to say that I live in world of heightened advice right now,” Wynne wryly admitted to Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area mayors and regional chairs last week in a candid moment that revealed the pressure she’s under.

Behind closed doors in the Liberal caucus room, MPPs apologetically share with her their constituents’ views.

“They just don’t like you‎, premier,” one veteran MPP gently told her within earshot of other members. “I do, but they don’t and I don’t know why.”

It’s a sentiment that Wynne — who remains both liked and respected by most of her caucus colleagues — may finally be starting to take to heart even as she insists she plans to lead the Liberals into the next campaign.

“She will do the right thing for the Ontario Liberal Party,” confided one intimate, who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss internal party matters.

“The premier won us the last election (in 2014) and we know that. But the dislike toward her now — unfair and undeserved as it is — borders on the irrational,” said another Liberal.

Sources told the Star that more than a dozen MPPs are looking at not running again in the 2018 election over fears they will lose their seats due to her unpopularity.

No MPPs will yet speak publicly about the potential exodus — more out of their personal regard for Wynne than‎ due to a fear of retribution.

But some are known to be considering an appeal to her en masse‎ to share their worries about the future.

“There’s no way we should lose to Patrick Brown — he’s an empty suit with no plan,” fumed one long-time member‎, referring to the little-known rookie Progressive Conservative leader who polls suggest could win the election.

“If our vote collapses, there’s a very real possibility Andrea Horwath could be the next premier of Ontario,” warned another Liberal, predicting the New Democrats would benefit if progressives abandon the Liberals to stop Brown’s Tories.

“Andrea is more dangerous to us than Patrick.”

Sousa, the Liberals’ happy warrior, is bullish on his boss and on the party’s future after he tables a balanced budget chock full of campaign-friendly goodies on April 27.

“The premier is doing an outstanding job. She cares. She’s deliberated over a number of tough files and issues and I have full confidence in her and my colleagues in the party to do what’s best for the people of Ontario,” the treasurer said last Thursday.

“We have been an activist centre government. We’re looking at stimulating growth, managing spending, and ensuring greater prosperity for the people of Ontario,” he said.

Sousa stressed he’s “confident that the people of Ontario will come to appreciate — and have already appreciated — the work we do.”

“They elected her to a majority government; I believe they’ll elect her again.”

Wynne’s predecessor, Dalton McGuinty, who turned over the reins four years ago, once likened the role of a premier to a political party’s “liver” that absorbs toxins.

“And one of your responsibilities on the way out is to take those (toxins) with you,” McGuinty told Robyn Bresnahan on CBC Radio’s Ottawa Morning in 2015, “and to leave your successor a fighting chance.”

Having turned down the political heat on hydro with the 25 per cent rate cut that takes full effect in June and eliminated a stubborn deficit as of next week’s budget, one Liberal insider said Wynne could depart “with her head held high.”

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2017/04/18/speculation-swirls-over-wynnes-future.html
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When a paper that's a core supporter of the Ontario Liberals comes out with 'speculation' about when Wynne leaves, it pretty much tells you we're at a tipping point.

I think it means that the party elders have decided that she can't win any more elections. Or that a big chunk of the caucus is worried about being dragged down with her.

There's every reason to think that they are all 'ín the bubble' as they say.
Quote:

Behind closed doors in the Liberal caucus room, MPPs apologetically share with her their constituents’ views.

“They just don’t like you‎, premier,” one veteran MPP gently told her within earshot of other members. “I do, but they don’t and I don’t know why.”

It’s a sentiment that Wynne — who remains both liked and respected by most of her caucus colleagues — may finally be starting to take to heart even as she insists she plans to lead the Liberals into the next campaign.

“She will do the right thing for the Ontario Liberal Party,” confided one intimate, who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss internal party matters.

“The premier won us the last election (in 2014) and we know that. But the dislike toward her now — unfair and undeserved as it is — borders on the irrational,” said another Liberal.


The dislike of her is ... unfair and undeserved? ... borders on the irrational? Are you kidding me? Have you looked at your hydro bill lately? Have you not noticed the start of an escape from Ontario's power costs by the job-creators? Never mind my usual screed -- it suggests that the party isn't dealing with the consequences of their own actions.

TC has claimed that she could get elected again, no problem. That's the kind of thinking that's the opposite of political insight. She inherited an exhausted and decadent regime from Dalton McGuinty, and managed to win with it. It testifies to her skills as a politician. But they have lost contact with reality in the process. That's what happens in big organizations -- the members believe their own propaganda more than the people it is meant to victimize.

But lying and the black arts of politics will only take you so far, and she has run the course. That's my bet.
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

it does seem like her time is running out , this budget could be her last real opportunity to reach out to Ontario voters and give them any reason to not toss her out .

the Sault Ste Marie by election also seems very critical based on the mood of the liberal caucus , clearly a loss or poor result would make it very hard for her to stay on . its clear that's why she is delaying the vote for so long
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pollster says it's too soon to write off Kathleen Wynne


Ainslie Cruickshank

Tuesday, April 18th, 2017



Not everyone agrees, but EKOS pollster Frank Graves says it’s too soon to write off Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne.

The province has elected premiers before that many called “unelectable,” he said.

Wynne’s personal approval rating is dismal, hitting 12 per cent in March, according to the Angus Reid Institute, but next week’s budget could help reverse the downward trend.

Finance Minister Charles Sousa said he’ll table a balanced budget on April 27 that includes new investments in education, health care and infrastructure. Families, he promised, won’t face any additional taxes.

If it goes over smoothly, it could put Wynne in...


http://ipolitics.ca/2017/04/18.....een-wynne/
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 12:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wynne was in Ottawa this week and according to this clip she remains defiant about leaving the job and is still saying she's going to lead the party into another election

whats interesting is even the people in the liberal friendly media are now admitting the liberals have been in power too long and that a 5th term for same party is " very difficult " to get according to Graham Richardson of ctv Ottawa



http://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/mobil.....tPageNum=1
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lets see how this "Balanced" budget sells;
Ontario voters have accepted a lot of nonsense from the OLP

Maybe this is just one more example
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( defiant or delusional , I don't know which one it is at this point )


Kathleen Wynne insists she’s not going anywhere despite concern among Liberal MPPs


As provincial election looms, a defiant Premier Kathleen Wynne said she is not going anywhere, despite concern within the governing Liberals that her unpopularity is hurting the party.


“I understand that there is a political story around personal popularity, but that’s actually beside the point for me,” Premier Kathleen Wynne said firmly. (Ed Clark, chair of the Premier's Advisory Council on Government Assets, is pictured at a 2015 announcement on beer being sold in Ontario grocery stores.)





By Robert BenzieQueen's Park Bureau Chief

Wed., April 19, 2017


A defiant Premier Kathleen Wynne said she is not going anywhere despite concern within the governing Liberals that her unpopularity is hurting the party.

“I’ve made a decision, with the support of my caucus, to go into the next election,” Wynne told reporters at the Children’s Hospital of Eastern in Ottawa on Wednesday.

“We have important work still to do. We’re on the verge of . . . bringing in a balanced budget for the first time in nearly a decade,” she said, referring to Finance Minister Charles Sousa’s April 27 budget.

“That will allow us to do more of the things that are needed in this province, whether it’s in health care, whether it’s in infrastructure.”

Her comments came in the wake of a front-page Star story on Tuesday that revealed unease within the Liberals because Wynne badly trails Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath in public opinion polls.


The Star revealed that more than a dozen Liberal MPPs are considering not running again in the June 7, 2018 election over concern her numbers will drag them down.

“I understand that there is a political story around personal popularity, but that’s actually beside the point for me,” the premier said firmly.

“The point for me is to do the work that I was elected to do with the support of my colleagues,” she said, flanked by Attorney General Yasir Naqvi, Community Safety and Correctional Services Minister Marie-France Lalonde, and MPP Nathalie Des Rosiers (Ottawa-Vanier).

“Of course, there are political calculations along the way. There always are. I’ve been in this office since 2013. We won a majority in 2014 and we have been doing the work that we were elected to do.”

Asked why her personal popularity appears to be down — the economy is performing well and residential electricity rates are being cut by 25 per cent this year — Wynne smiled gamely.

“I’m going to leave that to the pundits and to the press . . . to analyze.”

The Star disclosed that some Grits are worried about continuing organizational challenges in the Ontario Liberal Party.

Within hours of those concerns being aired in print, the Liberals scrambled to announce a candidate for an upcoming byelection in Sault Ste. Marie, former local mayor Debbie Amaroso, and unveiled a new executive director of the party, former political staffer David Clarke.

One senior Liberal admitted the revelations in the Star were a “wake-up call” for a party that has been in power since October 2003.

To that end, the Grits are touting the skills of campaign co-chairs David Herle, who managed the victorious 2014 effort, deputy premier Deb Matthews, and prominent lawyer Tim Murphy, as well as campaign director Chad Walsh, a rising star in the party.

The Liberals also announced new campaign committees to oversee fundraising, candidate recruitment, the election platform, organization and communications.

Speaking in Toronto, Matthews said Wynne is “our best asset.”

“She is making some really substantial change for our government . . . and her caucus is fully behind her and the party is fully behind her,” she said.

“You know, we can get distracted by polls . . . so do not write Kathleen Wynne off. She’s a very, very strong leader for us.”

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2017/04/19/kathleen-wynne-insists-shes-not-going-anywhere-despite-concern-among-liberal-mpps.html
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

IF (and that's a big if) they are going to (plausibly) get to an "almost" balanced budget -- at least as a projection -- and IF they are going to increase social benefits, as is their plan, and IF they are going to do this without raising taxes ... where's the money going to come from?

From the carbon quotas, perhaps?
queenmandy85





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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brad Wall and his Socialist Credit Party (Sask Party) are suddenly in a race to the bottom.
It is as though they sat down and tried to alienate every voter all at once in the budget. They dropped from 64% to 44%.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

queenmandy85 wrote:
Brad Wall and his Socialist Credit Party (Sask Party) are suddenly in a race to the bottom.
It is as though they sat down and tried to alienate every voter all at once in the budget. They dropped from 64% to 44%.


Over the course of a year. Still a big drop but polls had the party trending downward since last year's election.
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kelly McParland: Ontario’s delusional Liberals set course for Clinton-style oblivion



Kelly McParland | April 21, 2017 1:01 PM ET
More from Kelly McParland | @KellyMcParland
.

There is a something going on within the Ontario Liberal party right now that carries a distinct aroma. It’s hard to put a finger on, but it bears more than a hint of Hillary Clinton.

The Toronto Star, which lives to promote eternal Liberal rule, has been dropping heavy hints that Premier Kathleen Wynne ought to give some thought to retirement, clearing the way for a more popular person to lead the party into next year’s election, presuming one could be found. On Tuesday it ran a front-page story in which unnamed (i.e. very nervous) Liberals shared their frustration at Wynne’s extreme unpopularity, and the dark portents it carries. One clearly perplexed loyalist shared what must be a common complaint: not only is Wynne tracking way behind the opposition Tories, but she’s way behind a Tory party led by Patrick Brown.

According to the Star report: “There’s no way we should lose to Patrick Brown — he’s an empty suit with no plan.”

Another Liberal complained: “If our vote collapses, there’s a very real possibility (NDP leader) Andrea Horwath could be the next premier of Ontario … Andrea is more dangerous to us than Patrick.”

.
If this sounds vaguely familiar it may be because it’s exactly the problem that vexed members of the Clinton campaign team as they struggled to understand how their dear leader could possibly be doing so badly against two such obvious (to them) lightweights as Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.

To Clintonites, it was inconceivable that so many Democrats could prefer Sanders, the wild-eyed socialist senator from Vermont, to Clinton, the former FLOTUS, senator and secretary of state. Once Clinton managed, barely, to wrestle the party nomination from Sanders, they were even more baffled that she had such trouble putting any distance between herself and Donald Trump, the crude, cartoonish, ill-informed reality TV star who owned a bunch of real estate in New York. Right down to election night they refused to consider the possibility that Americans might actually prefer Trump. Clinton herself had to be nudged, twice, by Barack Obama to pick up the phone and concede defeat, long after it was clear all hope was lost.

You get that same sense of disbelief — and perhaps a touch of denial — from Ontario Liberals, and not a few Tory sympathizers as well. Much as voters express dislike of Wynne and the deeply indebted, overburdened and overregulated province her Liberals have created, they find it difficult to accept that voters will opt for Brown instead. In the 19 months since he unexpectedly won the Progressive Conservative leadership he’s barely scratched the surface of public awareness. Image-wise he’s had all the impact of weak tea.

He’s so little-known that Liberals struggle to smear him. They’d like to trash him as a hard-right social conservative ex-Harperite who hates immigrants and would impose extremist values on an unsuspecting province, but can’t make it stick. Perhaps that’s because Brown won the nomination by relentlessly courting ethnic Ontarians in towns and cities across the province. In February he easily evaded a Liberal trap, speaking firmly in favour of a motion condemning Islamophobia. “Whether it’s hate against any faith, it’s wrong. I will always stand in opposition to any form of hate. Islamophobia is a problem and we must stand up against it,” he asserted.

He’s even spoiled Liberal hopes of tarring as a knuckle-dragging climate-change denier, pledging party support for a carbon tax, albeit one he says will return the money to Ontarians rather than spending it on new projects as the Liberals plan to do.

The Liberals won the past three elections with a great deal of help from stumbles by their opponents. They are counting heavily on Brown to help them do that again — given their track record, and the deep well of dissatisfaction percolating through the province, it’s almost all they have to cling to. Their success in escaping defeat so often in the past means few prognosticators are willing to write off their ability to do so again, just as the U.S. press overwhelmingly resisted accepting that Clinton could indeed lose an election to Donald Trump. No one liked Dalton McGuinty much either, and he won three times, right? Maybe Ontarians are just that addle-brained that they’ll continually vote for a government they can’t stand, who knows?

A new book on the Clinton defeat puts her loss down to a monumental sense of hubris within the campaign and a mountain of mistakes and misjudgements that finally caught up to her. Americans, it turned out, had had enough of Hillary Clinton, and wanted someone else. Ontario Liberals don’t want to believe that can happen here. But people are funny, and when they’ve had enough, they’ve had enough.

http://news.nationalpost.com/f.....e-oblivion
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Wynne still canada's least popular premier new poll

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