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Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

How many times must one try and explain their policy?
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:

O'Toole seems to be doing very well. I think one hurdle he has now is that his French isn't the strongest. While Scheer is doing better with endorsements - though O'Toole is catching up among MPs - my sense is O'Toole could become the stronger of the two when it comes to a "unifying" candidate.


I agree.
It will be an interesting race.


O'Toole was in Nova Scotia to go to law school. I doubt if anyone thinks of him as being from that province.

But my bigger question is: what have either of these two done that qualifies them for leadership of a G-7 nation? Seriously, what is there for me to get excited about? Are there any ideas in play? Why would any ordinary Canadian perfer these people to Kevin O'Leary?


They may not think of O'Toole as being from Nova Scotia, but from living there and being involved in the PC Party he's likely made strong connections that help. His wife is from Nova Scotia I believe, which could also be a help.

Scheer's background is weak but I think O'Toole has one of the most interesting backgrounds in the race. A former veteran who became a corporate lawyer. His short time in parliament has been pretty successful. He was a rising star as parliamentary secretary and seemed to do a good job at fixing things as Minister of Veterans Affairs. It's not often a Prime Minister holds a shuffle just to bring one person into cabinet. And unlike Scheer, O'Toole has been putting out some ideas.

I'd question what qualifies O'Leary - who I've previously been a fan of - to be leader of a G-7 nation over most the candidates in the race?
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2017 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I take your point about Nova Scotia, but both of these guys are really urban cosmopolitans without deep local ties ... in my estimation. Not that there's anything wrong with that, and in some ways, they can be expected to have a more national view, which you want in a leader. It's just that they're not local the way a local lawyer is local.

I would say both of these gents need seasoning. I sense no vision, nothing that they have worked out as the kind of political reality they would, if the could, achieve. All the active sources of political energy -- the Greens, feminists, socialists in general -- have these fantasies at their core, imagery of what it would be like if the injustices end, and The Garden of Eden is restored. Kumbaya.

The mistake they make is to get into dreamland. For me, the Conservative alternative ought to be based on a minimalist state, a healthy private economy, and as much decentralization as possible. Conservatives can create those kinds of utopias too. But the point is that these visions form a baseline for policy. They generate practical programs of action that the electorate can rally to.

It takes more than a leader, of course, but I would like to see a leader that would at least facilitate this kind of vision within the party and without. That's the thing that Kevin O'Leary has. He has played the mean capitalist in his TV role so he might be able to project an image, and a new narrative, better that other candidates.

The thing that's missing in this race is the lack of commitment to goals that would move people. I know, it's not easy. But that's the leader's job.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( there is a detailed poll on the cpc race on ipolitics , here is there % of first ballot by points
O'Leary - 24.5 %
Bernier - 20 %
Leitch - 13 %
Alexander - 10.6 %
Raitt - 7.7 %
Scheer - 5 %
Chong - 5 %
Blaney - 4.4 %
O'toole - 2.8 %
Lemieux - 2.6 %
Trost - 1.7 %
Peterson - 0.5 %
Obrahi - 0.5 %
Saxton - 0.5 % )

O'Leary edging out Bernier to take on Trudeau in 2019: poll



Janice Dickson

Monday, February 13th, 2017




Conservative leadership candidate Kevin O’Leary may have been late to the gate, but he’s already leading the race to succeed Stephen Harper, edging out Maxime Bernier and opening a significant lead over Kellie Leitch, according to a new poll conducted by Mainstreet Research.

The first poll from the iPolitics CPC Leadership Tracker, powered by Mainstreet Research, was conducted between January 5 and February 3, sampling 5,487 Conservative members. It shows O’Leary is the membership’s first choice, followed by Bernier and Leitch.

Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research, said that Bernier’s support is spread out across Canada but is heavily concentrated in Quebec, while O’Leary’s support is also very broad but shallow in Quebec — so the two are quite close in terms of overall support. While O’Leary is still ahead overall, said Maggi, he’s not quite on the map in Quebec.

“He basically has to double his support in Quebec to really start running away with this,” said Maggi.

The leadership will be decided in Toronto on May 27 according to a complicated system, with members marking a preferential ballot in each of Canada’s 338 ridings. Votes from different ridings will have different weight, because some ridings have thousands of members and some have a handful. That means that there are significant differences between levels of support measured by percentage of vote and percentage of points.

firstballotbyvotes

firstballotbypoints

Almost a third of respondents — the largest percentage of those polled — indicated that they believe O’Leary is the best candidate to take on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in 2019. Maggi said this is likely due to O’Leary’s celebrity status and high name recognition.


trudeaugraph

Maggi said the numbers are still very fluid at this point and there’s still time for members to change their minds and for candidates to convince members who are “undecided.”

But the numbers right now show that Conservatives themselves believe O’Leary has the best chance of beating Trudeau, said Maggi.

The poll’s margin of error is 1.3 per cent.

Candidates will test their ideas, and their French, at a debate Monday night on the West Island of Montreal. O’Leary, who earlier said that he didn’t need to speak French to win the leadership, has been working with a tutor, and is expected to show off his French.


The iPolitics CPC Leadership Tracker, powered by Mainstreet, will be tracking the Conservative leadership race until members pick the next leader on May 27. For information on subscribing to in-depth updates, click here.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/13.....2019-poll/
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't see Alexander doing that well at all. He has no endorsements from MPs, senators or prominent party people. It's not even clear who's running his campaign or what kind of organization he has. He does however have a more high-profile name compared to some. I've been called for other polls as well and they've been done by alphabetical order, so his name is number 1.

While Mainstreet and iPolitcs are making a good attempt I don't know how representative their numbers will be. Although better I guess than just randomly calling people.

They're using lists of donors to the CPC to try and figure out who might be members. By doing that it likely means that they're mainly polling long time members of the party. By the time things are said and done the party's membership may nearly double. However, most of the new members won't be called. There are also segments of the population more likely to donate than others, such as older members and those who are better off financially.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 3:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( we can put to bed any rumours that one of the leadership candidates would try running in Ottawa Vanier as cpc set to nominate a candidate this week and none are part of it )



Two candidates vying for CPC nomination in Ottawa-Vanier

Emily Fearon

Monday, February 13th, 2017

The Conservative party has a contested nomination for the upcoming byelection in the historically Liberal-leaning riding of Ottawa-Vanier.

Conservatives Adrian Papara and Joel Bernard are both running for the nomination. The party has sent out its official nomination notice, and the vote will be held on February 16.

Papara said in an email that he has lived in Ottawa-Vanier for three years. He has a master’s degree in business and works as director of operations for Calgary Shepard MP Tom Kmiec.

Papara has also worked with the Ottawa-Vanier Electoral District Association and canvassed for David Piccini, who ran for the...

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/13.....wa-vanier/
RCO





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Posts: 6510
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votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 8:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fiery Conservative leadership debate packs Pointe-Claire convention room

Kevin O'Leary, trying to allay language concerns, makes commitment to improve French

By Kate McKenna, CBC News Posted: Feb 13, 2017 4:40 PM ET| Last Updated: Feb 14, 2017 7:44 AM ET

Conservative leadership candidate Kevin O'Leary addresses a Conservative Party leadership debate Monday, February 13, 2017 in Montreal.


The Conservative party leadership debate in Montreal's West Island was replete with political theatre, including a glass of milk used as a prop, two candidates being shut out altogether, and celebrity businessman Kevin O'Leary showcasing his heavily-accented French.

About 250 people packed into the Holiday Inn in Pointe-Claire, Que., to hear 11 of the 14 candidates vying for the party's top job.

Early in the evening, O'Leary addressed concerns about his ability to express himself in French by giving his opening statements entirely in the language.

Throughout the evening, O'Leary spoke in his second language — often reading from a sheet in his hand — and said he's working daily with a tutor to improve his fluency.
.

WATCH: Kevin O'Leary's debut in French0:53

Quebec City shooting addressed

The room fell silent when candidates were asked what politicians need to do to renew engagement with minorities.

The question made specific reference to the Quebec City mosque shooting.

Each question in the debate was addressed specifically to three candidates. This question was directed to two Quebec candidates — Maxime Bernier and Steven Blaney — and Kellie Leitch.

Leitch has proposed newcomers to Canada go through a screening process to ensure they fit "Canadian values" before being allowed in the country.

In response, she said the shooting that left six dead and 17 children without their fathers was a "travesty," but reiterated her plan to implement a screening process for immigrants and refugees.



Supply management theatrics

In a scene that might've been taken from the script of the Broadway musical Hamilton, Bernier and Blaney engaged in a rap-battle-esque argument over supply management.

Bernier has built his campaign on being a staunch supporter of the free market. Blaney spent his opening and closing remarks extolling the virtues of Canada's dairy, egg and poultry quota system.

He carried a cup of milk on stage as a prop to show his support.

Conservative Leadership 20170213
Candidate Steven Blaney toasts the audience with a glass on milk during a Conservative Party leadership debate Monday, February 13, 2017 in Montreal. (Paul Chiasson/Canadian Press)

The two men candidates took turns responding directly to each other, mics in hand. When Blaney's microphone was cut off because he surpassed his allotted amount of time, he continued yelling.

Organization issues

Both Brad Trost and Pierre Lemieux were shut out of the debate after a "communications breakdown" between their campaigns and the riding associations that organized the debate.

Both candidates were in the room, but weren't allowed to debate.

The only candidate absent was Deepak Ohbrai, who had a scheduling conflict.

Conservative Party members will elect their next leader on May 27.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/.....-1.3980835
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 8:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

O'Leary, Chong, Bernier, Raitt most appealing Conservative leadership candidates to Canadians: Nanos survey


Sonja Puzic, CTVNews.ca
Published Tuesday, February 14, 2017 5:25PM EST
Last Updated Tuesday, February 14, 2017 5:52PM EST


Kevin O’Leary, Michael Chong, Maxime Bernier and Lisa Raitt are the most politically appealing Conservative Party leadership candidates to Canadians, according to a new Nanos survey.

Nearly 15 per cent of those surveyed said they found O’Leary most appealing. He was followed by Chong (9.2 per cent), Bernier (8.5 per cent), and Raitt (7.1 per cent).

Kellie Leitch, Erin O’Toole, Steven Blaney and Andrew Scheer were each preferred by only about two per cent of survey responders. One per cent or less said they preferred Chris Alexander, Deepak Obhrai, Pierre Lemieux and Brad Trost.



Less than 0.5 per cent of survey responders said they found candidates Rick Peterson and Andrew Saxton most appealing.

More than one third, or 34 per cent, said that none of the 14 Conservative leadership candidates are politically appealing to them.

When the answers from people who found no one appealing were excluded, the percentage of Canadians who found O’Leary most politically appealing rose to 22.2 per cent. This was followed by Chong (14 per cent), Bernier (12.9 per cent) and Raitt (10.8 per cent).

Pollster Nik Nanos said the survey results show that leadership candidates’ appeal to Canadians is not just about name recognition and media exposure.

“If this was just name recognition, realistically Kellie Leitch and Kevin O’Leary would be at the top of the list,” Nanos told CTVNews.ca on Tuesday.

The fact that Chong, Bernier and Raitt also did well in the survey shows that each one of them “brings something different to the race that people find appealing,” Nanos said.

“For Kevin O’Leary, whether you love him or hate him, he is a brash personality that is very focused on jobs and the economy,” he said.

Chong is seen as a young, progressive candidate, Bernier is an “engaging Francophone” and Raitt is also an engaging personality and a successful former cabinet minister, Nanos added.

But just because those candidates are appealing to Canadians, that doesn’t mean they will do well in the leadership race, since it’s Conservative Party members who will be choosing their next leader, Nanos said.

He said the way Canadians – and CPC voters – view the candidates could significantly change over the course of the leadership race.

Opinions divided on non-bilingual leaders

Forty per cent of Canadians said they’re following the leadership race “somewhat closely,” while 11 per cent said they’re following closely. A quarter, or 25 per cent, said they are not following the race closely, and 24 per cent answered with “somewhat not closely.”

When it comes to bilingualism and federal politics, Canadians appear to be divided.

One third, or 33 per cent, said they would likely vote against a federal party leader who could not speak both English and French. Sixteen per cent said they would be somewhat likely to do so.

Meanwhile, 34 per cent said they would be unlikely to vote against a party leader who’s not bilingual, while 11 per cent said they’d be somewhat unlikely.

Many Conservative Party leadership candidates have struggled to communicate in French during debates. O’Leary also raised eyebrows when he suggested that he doesn’t need to speak French, but has since expressed his commitment to learning the language.

Methodology

The data is based on a dual frame (land and cell lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,000 Canadians, 18 years of age and older, between Jan. 28 and Feb. 1 as part of an omnibus survey. Participants were randomly recruited by telephone using live agents and administered a survey online.

The margin of error for a random survey of 1,000 Canadians is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics.....-1.3285503
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I checked my email which I don't use a lot and its literally overflowing with emails from various leadership candidates , actually one from Kevin O'Leary as well , never got one from him yet

but one really caught my eye and not for the right reasons , the last time I heard about "choice in education " was 2007 during the Ontario election and the pc's were beaten into the ground by the liberals over the issue even though Dalton Mcguinty was rather unpopular at the time , Scheer's purposed plan sounds pretty similar to what John Tory had talked about back then




Supporting Choice in Education

Andrew Scheer <andrew@andrewscheer.com>


Today, 10:59 AM

Andrew Scheer for Conservative Leader


I trust parents.

Parents are the best people to make educational decisions for their kids.

Parents who send their children to independent schools or who homeschool them are spending hard-earned after-tax dollars to give their kids the education they believe is right for their child.

I want to recognize that sacrifice and make life a bit easier.

As Prime Minister, I will make up to $4,000 per child of independent school tuition tax deductible.

I will also create a $1,000 homeschooler tax credit per child.

What do you think of this plan? Take the survey by hitting the button below.


Lots of parents choose to educate their children outside of the public school system. In fact, about 1 in 12 kids in Canada is educated at an independent school or homeschooled.

The federal government already makes post-secondary education tuition tax deductible, and this is the logical extension of that policy. And just like university, it will apply to all independent schools that are registered with or recognized by provincial governments.

I believe that parents should be able to have a choice about the education of their children, and I believe support them as they make those educational choices.

This policy is very controversial with teachers’ unions and their allies in the Liberals and NDP. They are going to attack the idea and me. I need resources to fight back. If you agree with my plan – please chip in to my campaign here.

Thanks in advance,

Andrew Scheer, MP
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( a new mainstreet poll is claiming there has been a surge in support for Leitch , confusing poll as they claim Leitch and O'Leary are the top 2 candidates . however there second poll then indicates they are also the top "least " likely to support candidates so there grown potential may be limited
)

Leitch surges in latest Mainstreet Tory leadership poll

The ‘Canadian values’ candidate has passed Bernier and is nipping at O’Leary’s heels

BJ Siekierski

Friday, February 17th, 2017


Kellie Leitch is now the first choice for over one-fifth of Conservative party members, passing Maxime Bernier and nipping at the heels of an increasingly polarizing Kevin O’Leary campaign, according to the latest iPolitics CPC Leadership Tracker — powered by Mainstreet Research.

Mainstreet reached 804 members between February 9 and 12 and found — with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20 — that Kevin O’Leary was the first choice for 22.01 per cent of members, followed by Leitch (20.90 per cent), and Bernier (17.54 per cent).

Feb 15 2016 Mainstreet Research leadership votes

The first leadership poll, conducted between January 5 and February 3, sampling 5,487 Conservative members, had O’Leary at 24.5 per cent, Bernier at 16.55 per cent, and Leitch at 10.83.

At the same time, the number of undecided members is up from 10.6 per cent to 11.8.

Even taking into account the margin of error, Leitch has surged. Mainstreet Research president Quito Maggi thinks Leitch’s rise could have to do with the heated debate over the Liberals’ Islamophobia motion and President Donald Trump’s travel ban.

Having stood firm despite the backlash against her policy proposal to screen every immigrant and visitor to Canada for ‘Canadian values’, Leitch is now benefiting from the support of members who are most worried about immigration.

As iPolitics reported earlier this week, almost seven in 10 Leitch supporters are in favour of a Canadian version of Trump’s embattled executive order banning citizens from seven Muslim-majority countries from entering the United States.

“Because she has been the one to plant her flag firmly on that (values) policy, anyone who’s now of like mind is returning to Kellie Leitch,” Maggi said. “This is a seismic shift. This is now a three-way race.”

Arguably a more a troubling finding for the O’Leary campaign, however, is the rise in the number of Conservative party members who rank him as their last choice.

“The most dramatic number out of this is in the least likely, where O’Leary now leads. This really represents a turning point. Kellie Leitch has led that number from the beginning of January all the way to February 3, when we stopped the initial sample,” Maggi said.

“Now, for O’Leary to be leading this category, it’s huge. He’s still the frontrunner, but it’s more the implication of — what does it do to his growth possibility? This is a common frontrunner phenomenon.”

O’Leary is now the last choice for 22.09 per cent of members, whereas Leitch is the last choice for 21.12 per cent.

Feb 15 2016 Mainstreet Research least likely leadership

This poll, however, was conducted before the leadership debate Monday night in which O’Leary declared the new Conservative party was going to be pro-choice, pro-marijuana legalization and an ardent defender of the LGBTQI community.

“God only knows what the next numbers are going to reflect after Conservatives have had time to digest O’Leary’s positions … whether ideologically he’s now pushing away more Conservative members than attracting,” Maggi said.

CPC Leadership Tracker4

Maggi added that he’s been told the final membership is likely to be somewhere between 150,000 to 180,000 — 60,000 to 90,000 of them new members.

“Leaderships are not big-tent campaigns. Leaderships are small-tent campaigns,” Maggi said.

“For O’Leary to have chance of winning this on one of the first couple of ballots, he’s going to have to sell an overwhelming majority of those new memberships, because it looks for now like the existing membership base is turning against him.”

Since the Conservative leadership race allocates 100 points to each riding, regardless of its number of members, that overall member support number does need to be considered along with the first-ballot preference as a percentage of points.

This poll’s smaller sample size did not allow for that, but subsequent polls will.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/17.....ship-poll/
RCO





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PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2017 10:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wanted to look at the "least likely " to support numbers in more detail as there something we have not seen yet


O'Leary - 22 %
Leitch - 21 %
Bernier -11 %
Obhrai - 10 %
Chong - 8.5 %
Alexander - 8 %
Lemieux - 7.5 %
Blaney - 3.8%
Raitt - 2%
Peterson - 1 %
o'toole - 1 %
Trost - 0.9 %
Scheer - 0.3 %
Saxton - 0. 1 %


they would seem to indicate that although O'Leary and Leitch were frontrunners , they have a limited pool of party voters as 20 % at least won't even consider voting for them at this point

some of the establishment frontrunners with actual seats in the house of commons ( Raitt , O'toole and Scheer ) aren't doing as well in the poll but have very few negatives and a larger pool of potential voters

I'm also surprised Brad Trost's negatives aren't higher , I know he would personally be my last choice at this point as to who I would want as leader , perhaps he was overlooked for some reason when people asked this question
RCO





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PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2017 10:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Conrad Black: If the Conservatives want to win, they need a leader who can speak French — period


Conrad Black | February 17, 2017 | Last Updated: Feb 18 12:27 AM ET
More from Conrad Black
.

For many weeks I have been reviewing and meeting candidates for the leadership of the federal Conservative party. It has been an astonishing race, with a multiplicity of candidates, few of whom are household names to a significant number of Canadians, and in an electoral process that is a computerized, remote-control treatment of a preferential ballot. Political conventions are admittedly tasteless, laborious, and produce orgies of speechification that will overpower the most indomitable case of insomnia. Future U.S. president Woodrow Wilson, after nomination to his country’s highest office in 1912, declared the whole process so demeaning that he said that “There should never be another political convention in this country.” But at least they have their dramatic conclusions in a run-off ballot, and there are amusing moments and occasionally eloquent addresses. The convention is a spectacle that generally incites some public interest. The conventions that elevated Pierre Trudeau as Liberal leader in 1968 and in the Joe Clark-Brian Mulroney era of the Conservatives, 1976-1983, yielded great speeches (by Trudeau, and by Claude Wagner in 1976), and dramatic outcomes.

The Conservatives, in what must be the final and perverse emanation of the desiccating Harper influence, will have ballots posted by paid-up party members in which they may state the full list of the order of their preferences among the candidates. The computerized counting system, once all the preferences have been inserted, will conduct an electronic sequence of ballots, in which the cumulative last candidate is dropped each notional ballot, just a few seconds apart. So a vote for 10th place on the first ballot may have, less than a minute later, greater relevance than a first-place vote on the first ballot. This is a roulette game of high-tech homogenization, and the result could be hilariously unpredictable. The organizers are assuming that most party members-voters will only put down one or a very few names. But, as I understand it (from several of the candidates), someone who is on the top-10 choices of virtually 80,000-plus possible voters, would likely defeat a candidate who was not on 20,000 individual lists of preference, but ran ahead of the above candidate on all of the 60,000 ballots where that candidate was mentioned.

It is mystifying that the Conservatives should have settled on such an unspectacular and bloodless method of selecting a leader, to wind up a process that has attracted very limited public interest despite months of internecine campaigning. The candidate who was predestined to win was Jason Kenney, but he returned to Alberta instead, to rescue that province from the NDP, a high and surely successful calling, but it has left the federal Conservatives without an obvious candidate. Most of the prominent members of the Harper government departed more or less with the leader, as John Baird and Peter MacKay retired from politics and finance minister Jim Flaherty died. Yet the Conservatives are better placed as an opposition party than at any time since R.B. Bennett at the onset of the Great Depression in 1930, (when his path to office was eased by liberal scandals and Liberal leader Mackenzie King’s denunciation of the Depression unemployed as “slackers”). Brian Mulroney was also strong in 1984, but no one except him knew how he was going to crack the Liberal hold on Quebec.

.
In the 2015 election, the Conservatives elected 99 MP’s in a 338-member House of Commons, trailed the Liberals by 7.5 per cent country wide and on average in Ontario, Manitoba, and British Columbia. And although they only took about 20 per cent of the vote in the Atlantic provinces, they ran ahead of the NDP in all but Newfoundland; and defeated the Liberals by 25 points in Alberta and Saskatchewan. In Quebec, the Conservatives actually gained five MPs over the previous election, and won a respectable 17 per cent of the vote in a four-party race, though they received only about half the votes in the province of the Liberals.

Quebec highlights the present opportunity and the danger for the Conservatives. From 1896 to 1984, the Liberals won heavy majorities in Quebec, sometimes all or almost all of the entire parliamentary deputation from that province, which has declined in the last 120 years from about 30 per cent to about 23 per cent of the total number of MP’s. (The one exception was 1958, when five-term Quebec premier Maurice Duplessis, in an act of vengeance for the federal liberal intervention against him in the 1939 Quebec election, had his muscular Union Nationale machine deliver 50 of the province’s 75 constituencies to John Diefenbaker’s Progressive Conservatives.) In 2015, the Liberals took 40 of the province’s 78 MP’s, to 16 New Democrats, 12 Conservatives and 10 Bloc Québécois. The NDP lost more than 40 MP’s in Quebec, as they were caught straddling between the separatists and the outright federalists (Liberal and Conservative), and because their leader, Thomas Mulcair, took a commendably principled but tactically misguided stand in favour of a woman’s right to wear Islamic face-concealing clothing at official ceremonies. In general, Quebec is becoming more receptive to a conservative economic message, and the Conservatives, largely thanks to Brian Mulroney, have lived down their former reputation as a conscriptionist, anti-French, and anti-Roman Catholic party.




In Quebec, even the non-French fifth (or so) of the population want a federal government that is well-disposed to the French-speaking parts of the country, and about a little over a million Canadian non-Quebeckers are primarily French, though almost all of them are bilingual. Over three million Quebeckers are unilingually French-speaking. Though some Conservatives, including some leadership candidates, affect to believe that the French-speaking population is adequately taken care of culturally by having government services and media available to them in French in every place where they are at least 10 per cent of the population, that is not the French-Canadian view of the nature of the country. Nor is it the perspective of English-speaking Canadians who adhere to the founding formula of two co-equal official cultures, which was institutionalized by the government of Pierre Trudeau, after a rending but almost bloodless and successful battle with the Quebec separatists. Both authentic French-Canadians and other Canadians who strongly support conciliatory arrangements between the official language communities will object to the elevation of any leader of the federal opposition who is not reasonably bilingual.

Brian Mulroney and Stephen Harper are bilingual, and so have been all Liberal leaders since Pearson, who retired 49 years ago. Those interested in the continued revival of a functioning two-party system in Canada should not be complacent about the implications of returning to an official opposition where the language of the francophone fifth of the country cannot be managed by the Conservative leader, and the unilingual French 10 per cent of the country have to listen to their country’s leader through an interpreter. No unilingual party leader, with the arguable exception of Joe Clark (who remains the only person in history who ever defeated a Trudeau, however briefly), has won a federal election since the Pearson-Diefenbaker era, two full generations ago. An attempt to return to it by the Conservatives this year would disappoint at least 40 per cent of the country, and be rather provoking to almost a quarter of Canadians, and extremely and needlessly hazardous to that party. There would be a high likelihood that Canada would revert to 1.5 party rule, as between 1896 and 1984, when the Liberals won 16 general elections, 15 with parliamentary majorities or near-majorities, to six Conservative, three with fragile majorities, and one Conservative-led coalition victory (1917) and one effective draw (1925): 63 years of Liberal government to 18 Conservative and four by coalition.

By this criterion, of facility in both languages, the only Conservative leadership candidates running now who could win a general election are Maxime Bernier, Chris Alexander, Andrew Scheer, Steven Blaney, and Pierre Lemieux. Of these, only the first four have held a serious political position. I know all but Blaney, and all would be plausible. That Bernier was dropped from the cabinet for a minor indiscretion and that Alexander lost in the last election (over the fraudulent allegation that he had, as minister of immigration, declined admission to a Syrian child who subsequently drowned in the Mediterranean), is neither here nor there. (King lost his constituency four times, and John A. Macdonald once, and they were party leaders a total of 64 years and between them won a total of 13 general elections, and led or co-led the government for 50 years, including the pre-Confederation United Province of Canada-Ontario and Quebec).

Most of the other candidates, and certainly those that I know, have considerable merit, but I doubt if a unilingual Conservative leader can win. The Liberals would enter Ontario going west with a 70-seat lead and would almost certainly pick up enough, (less than a third of the 228 constituencies in Ontario, Manitoba, British Columbia, and the territories), to meet the House, and have always been able to outbid the Conservatives for the support of the NDP (1972-1974), or its predecessor, the CCF (1925-1926). Eligibility to vote in the Conservative leadership doesn’t close for another six weeks and I will revisit the race after that. There are worse fates than going back to long-term Liberal government, but the Conservatives want to win and shouldn’t do things almost certain to assure that they won’t. It is good for governing parties to know that they could lose. Both sides should get to bat.

http://news.nationalpost.com/f.....nch-period
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2017 1:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
I wanted to look at the "least likely " to support numbers in more detail as there something we have not seen yet


O'Leary - 22 %
Leitch - 21 %
Bernier -11 %
Obhrai - 10 %
Chong - 8.5 %
Alexander - 8 %
Lemieux - 7.5 %
Blaney - 3.8%
Raitt - 2%
Peterson - 1 %
o'toole - 1 %
Trost - 0.9 %
Scheer - 0.3 %
Saxton - 0. 1 %


they would seem to indicate that although O'Leary and Leitch were frontrunners , they have a limited pool of party voters as 20 % at least won't even consider voting for them at this point

some of the establishment frontrunners with actual seats in the house of commons ( Raitt , O'toole and Scheer ) aren't doing as well in the poll but have very few negatives and a larger pool of potential voters

I'm also surprised Brad Trost's negatives aren't higher , I know he would personally be my last choice at this point as to who I would want as leader , perhaps he was overlooked for some reason when people asked this question


Trost's low name recognition is probably the reason his negatives aren't higher. There's probably many members who don't have a clue who he is.

Obrhai had high negatives, which I found interesting.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 20, 2017 10:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tory leadership hopefuls square off in Vancouver

Conservatives debate Islamophobia, carbon tax, drugs, but frontrunners absent


Linda Givetash

Sunday, February 19th, 2017



VANCOUVER – The first one-on-one debate in the Conservative Party leadership race had candidates carving out their positions on Islamophobia, a carbon tax and the drug crisis.

Only nine of the 14 candidates attended the event in Vancouver on Sunday. Frontrunners Kellie Leitch, Maxime Bernier and Kevin O’Leary were among those absent, and manage to evade targeted criticism.

A question about how to defeat homegrown radicalization posed to Steven Blaney and Chris Alexander led them to take a stance on the motion tabled by Liberal MP Iqra Khalid that references Islamophobia.

Alexander said while he “condemns the hatred and abuse” that has been directed at Khalid in recent weeks, government must be “extremely careful” with its use of language.

He said the government should protect all Canadians regardless of their backgrounds.

Blaney also disagreed with Khalid’s motion, saying government must protect “the liberty to criticize a religion.”

The question also resurrected debate over whether women who wear a niqab must be required to show their face during citizenship ceremonies.

Blaney said he would institute legislation making it mandatory for everyone to have their faces visible during the ceremony, and he would make use of the notwithstanding clause under the Charter of Rights and Freedoms to allow parliament to override any laws preventing that change.

MP for Wellington-Halton Hills, Michael Chong, continued to set himself apart from other candidates on the issue of climate change.

He repeatedly defended the need for a carbon tax, and said he would use British Columbia’s revenue-neutral carbon tax as a model for the rest of Canada.

“British Columbia has lowest personal and corporate income taxes in Canada,” he said. “We need B.C.’s good ideas in the nation’s capital.”

B.C. issues of housing affordability and the opioid overdose crisis, which killed 914 people last year, became the focus of the latter half of the debate that brought all candidates to the stage.

Candidates were overall in agreement that the government has thus far failed to do enough in response to the crisis, with many of them calling for more investment in treatment programs, mental health services and law enforcement.

The debate on drugs quickly turned from the opioid crisis to marijuana legalization, in a city where pot shops can be found in nearly every neighbourhood.

“The lack of enforcement of current law on medical marijuana shops in Vancouver is scandalous, it has to change,” Vancouver-based candidate Rick Peterson said.

Lisa Raitt cast doubt on the current government’s ability to legalize marijuana before the next election. But she said if legalization happens, measures need to be in place to protect youth under the age of 25 and control illicit sales.

“Sometimes marijuana is laced with fentanyl and it can be deadly to people,” Raitt said.

B.C. Premier Christy Clark came under fire last year after making a similar claim that the deadly synthetic opioid fentanyl was being laced in marijuana. Vancouver police responded to premier’s comments in November saying there have been no incidents of fentanyl-laced marijuana.

Other candidates also took a hard stance on drug use, particularly in B.C.

“Effectively marijuana has been legal in parts of B.C. for a while, and it’s part of the reason why you’re having a drug crisis,” said Brad Trost.

However, Raitt later said running on a platform against marijuana would not win the party an election, but rather a strong platform of economic growth.

The next leadership debate will be held in Ottawa on Feb. 24.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/19.....vancouver/
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( 10 provincial mpp's from Ontario backed O'toole last week although I'm not sure who they all are but his father was an mpp so not a surprise )


Backs O’Toole for Conservative leader


Wednesday, February 15, 2017 10:53:01 EST AM

Conservative Party of Canada leadership candidate Erin O'Toole addresses party supporters Saturday at The Venue in Peterborough. Postmedia Photo



Nipissing MPP Vic Fedeli is among 10 Ontario PC MPPs to announce their endorsements today of Erin O’Toole to become the next leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.

“As a Northerner, it is very important to me that the next leader of the Conservative Party of Canada understands rural and Northern issues. Erin O’Toole has demonstrated that he is committed to improving health care access in Northern Ontario and across northern Canada. He has committed to keeping northern communities safe by doubling defence spending with targeted northern initiatives. And, most importantly, he has committed to ending the Liberal jobs crisis across Canada,” Fedeli was quoted in a media release.

O'Toole is MP for Durham and previously served as the minister of Veterans Affairs and Parliamentary Secretary for International Trade. He entered federal politics in a 2012 by-election.

Today’s announcement brings O’Toole’s endorsements to 39, including 19 MPs, seven former MPs, 10 MPPs, one former Conservative premier, one current PC Party leader, and one former leadership candidate.

His rivals in the leadership race are Chris Alexander, Maxime Bernier, Steven Blaney, Michael Chong, Kellie Leitch, Pierre Lemieux, Deepak Obhrai, Kevin O'Leary, Rick Peterson, Lisa Raitt, Andrew Saxton, Andrew Scheer and Brad Trost

Nominations close for leadership candidates at 5 p.m. Feb. 24 and the leader will be selected May 27 in Toronto.

http://www.nugget.ca/2017/02/1.....ive-leader
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