Home FAQ Search Memberlist User Groups Register Login   

BloggingTories.ca Forum IndexBloggingTories.ca Forum Index
    Index     FAQ     Search     Register     Login         JOIN THE DISCUSSION - CLICK HERE      

*NEW* Login or register using your Facebook account.

Not a member? Join the fastest growing conservative community!
Membership is free and takes 15 seconds


CLICK HERE or use Facebook to login or register ----> Connect



Goto page 1, 2, 3  Next  

Post new topic   Reply to topic Page 1 of 3
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Progressive Tory





Joined: 04 Dec 2010
Posts: 742
Reputation: 65.8
votes: 1

PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 1:03 pm    Post subject: Conservative Party Leadership Reply with quote

I thought there was a thread on this before but I couldn't find it.

If Justin Trideau does in fact lead his party to first place in opinion polls for the next year or so is it possible that Stephen Harper will step down as leader, or be forced out? I'm sure Harper would love to defeat Trudeau, but what if it looks unlikely that he will?

So, is it possible we could see a leadership before the 2015 election? If we do, then who runs?
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 6425
Reputation: 243.4
votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 1:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No, I can't see it happening based on "polling".
Harper has increased the parties seat total in four straight elections winning three of them, I would imagine he leaves by his own choosing or after an election loss.

If I have taken one thing away from the McGunity Liberals its that Incumbency is King in Canada.

McGunity's record leading into 2011 was terrible and he was one riding away from a majority because of Ontario apathy.

The CPC finally has Ontario and that apathy on their side and Ontario gets 15 more seats to go along with the 12 more in Alberta and BC along with the mandate to redraw district boundaries after the census, its time to just sit back and finally enjoy the fact that electoral math is actually breaking on the side of the CPC for the first time in five decades.

Even a popular LPC has perhaps the most difficult path to governing in its history due to the boundaries changing and the seats being added.

Everyone in this forum and within the CPC should EXPECT Trudeau to vault to first place in the polls and likely outside the MoE

A leaderless Liberal Party polled ahead in 2006
Dion polled ahead in 2007
Ignatieff polled ahead in 2009
Mulcair polled ahead in 2012

Why wouldn't Trudeau poll ahead? Everyone else has?

Outside the context of an election the ruling party usually gets brutalized in the polls; and polling is largely reactive to the event du jour,

Justinmania should last a strong six months (at least)

The Liberals, NDP, Bloc, GPC and anyone else have spent millions upon millions attempting to define Harper from 2004 onward and now you have a leader that has taken it on the chin for nearly a decade attack ads don't seem to harm him the way they may have in 2006.

If Harper is reduced to a minority in 2015 you have the discussion;
Prior to that you are simply asking to give the opposition a massive advantage and draw a divide down the center of the party.

Every former PCer and Reformer has already seen how that movie ends, and few have much interest to repeat it.

Let the LPC, NDP, and Bloc destroy themselves over the next year fighting for Quebec, and spent October 2014 till Election day 2015 doing to Trudeau what was successfully done to Dion, Ignatieff, and Rae.

Trudeau should by far be the easiest leader to eviscerate, and for the first time ever the goal of destroying him is one that shared with the NDP and Bloc.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 2361
Reputation: 163.7Reputation: 163.7
votes: 6

PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
If I have taken one thing away from the McGunity Liberals its that Incumbency is King in Canada.


So we can exonerate Hudak and his advisors, as well as the professional politician's playbook, and blame the electorate instead? We. the People, are wrong, and we ought to publicly apologize, perhaps ...

How bone-headed does a party have to be to recruit the head of the most hated company in Canada, Rogers ... the very symbol of fat-cat government monopolists ... to lead them?

Didn't John Tory have something to do with that apathy?

Didn't the playbook that said Hudak was in the lead, and should run a front-runner's campaign have something to do with that apathy?

Cosmo, the Ontario PC's have never represented us, in Ontario. They never made an issue of Caledonia, for example. Instead, they decided to fragment the one integrative institution in our besotted multi-cultural land -- the school system! For what reason? So we could fund Moslem schools, teaching jihad?

I'm still waiting for an answer to that one!

Ontario PCs are simply afraid that if they question the natives right to take a whole town hostage, they will be accused of bigotry. No guts, no glory!

And what about the economics of the wind-turbine white elephants?

No guts, no glory.

Do the PCs even have a clue about what mainstream Ontario feels about those things? Believe me, if there's one thing my fellow Canadians understand it's when their money is being pissed down the wall for no good reason.

It isn't as if the Ontario's still Progressive Conservatives give the public any reason to pay attention to them. They don't seem to have a clue what the issues are. And the fact that you -- I assume you are a party insider -- will blame the public for ignoring politics only makes it worse. It makes you seem incorrigible.

(Ironically, when the public isn't apathetic, like the Tea Party, you look down on what you prefer to see as their incompetence.)

When is the PC party of Ontario going to get on the ball? It is still coasting on Mike Harris' record. Believe it or not North Toronto isn't the heart of Ontario.

======================================

Is the federal party any different? Has it settled into the smugness that established parties get into? I worry about this. I have quit contributing, because of their failure to straighten out the Supreme Court.

You can put your faith in gerrymandering and demographics if you like, but if you aren't careful you will be facing something that requires brains and a connection to We, the People. You will be facing a phenomenon ... possibly in the middle of a serious economic crisis ... and you will be scratching your head, trying to figure it out.

And you won't be able to answer this question, when the public finally has a choice to make ... why should the average Tim Horton's customer vote for the Conservatives when that young Trudeau fellow is telling us what we want to hear? Hmmm? He at least knows what we think is important.
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 6425
Reputation: 243.4
votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 4:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:

Didn't John Tory have something to do with that apathy?

Didn't the playbook that said Hudak was in the lead, and should run a front-runner's campaign have something to do with that apathy?


I won't revisit our Tea Party principals debate repackaged as we agreed in the other thread we are not going to sway each-other in that regard.

As for the balance pertaining to Ontario,

If we saw a significant drop in folks voting for opposition parties perhaps I would lend a little more to the alienation theory, but by that stretch we would have seen a much worse turnout overall and significantly less for the governing party.

While Ontario voter turnout has been generally awful Ontario voters from 2003 till 2011 only declined around 5% in terms of overall turn out which largely follows the national trend, there is nothing out of the ordinary as it pertains to Ontario voters.

They walked into polling stations twice and voted for the incumbent and record be damned.

Ontario has more often then not lined up and re-elect the incumbent unless there has been a glaring reason not to both Provincially and Federally.

Dislodging incumbents in Ontario has historically been the hardest thing to do in Federal politics, the Conservatives Federally benefit from that incumbency for the first time in a long time and I am perfectly fine to enjoy it for now.

While I do appreciate that folks are getting their backs up at the thought of Justin Trudeau, he is largely just another opponent.

He shouldn't be taken lightly, he shouldn't be given the "Bob Rae" treatment, but he is still just another opponent and not one I would change the strategy to beat.

Stephane Dion had the Liberals polling in the mid 30's and most consider him one of the worst leaders the Liberals ever had, I would imagine someone like Trudeau should easily be able to match that.

However the approach to dealing with him should be no different then dealing with the Liberals and their leadership from 2006 thru 2008 when they still had money and they still had 4.5 million supporters nationally.
don muntean





Joined: 07 Sep 2006
Posts: 2262
Reputation: 34.9Reputation: 34.9Reputation: 34.9
votes: 8
Location: Saskatchewan

PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 10:26 pm    Post subject: Re: Conservative Party Leadership Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
I thought there was a thread on this before but I couldn't find it.

If Justin Trideau does in fact lead his party to first place in opinion polls for the next year or so is it possible that Stephen Harper will step down as leader, or be forced out? I'm sure Harper would love to defeat Trudeau, but what if it looks unlikely that he will?

So, is it possible we could see a leadership before the 2015 election? If we do, then who runs?


Whatever...when did politics in this country become driven by the cult of personality?


Link
Progressive Tory





Joined: 04 Dec 2010
Posts: 742
Reputation: 65.8
votes: 1

PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 7:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

^ In 1968 when PET first ran.
chilipepper





Joined: 18 Feb 2007
Posts: 382
Reputation: 83.4Reputation: 83.4
votes: 1
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 9:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You beat me to to it. As soon as I read that Trudeau jr. was running for the leadership I knew the adulation would start. No doubt in my mind that shallow voters will run to him.

I see no reason for Mr. Harper to step down unless he loses the next election.

According to Nanos this morning the Conservatives are trending downward, no surprise considering the almost constant barrage of negative press. If we hope to win a majority next election, Mr. Harper needs to come out a lot stronger to get the positives messages out. The robo call thing needs to be settled too.
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 6425
Reputation: 243.4
votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
^ In 1968 when PET first ran.


Agreed;
We cannot simply "brush off" personality;

Even as recently as 2011 we watched "Le bon Jack" usher in a collection of Students, Karate Teachers, Reformed Communists, Bartenders, and a whole lot more solely as NDP MP's on his personality and appeal to Quebec.

Voters will vote with their hearts and the Liberals should capture that vote with ease; However there are some stark difference in the circumstances around "Trudeau Mania" in the 60's and Version 2.0 in this new Century.

There is no Social Credit Party, The NDP is still more popular nationally today then it was under Douglas or Lewis and Harper ain't Robert Stanfield.
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 6425
Reputation: 243.4
votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 10:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

chilipepper wrote:
You beat me to to it. As soon as I read that Trudeau jr. was running for the leadership I knew the adulation would start. No doubt in my mind that shallow voters will run to him.

I see no reason for Mr. Harper to step down unless he loses the next election.

According to Nanos this morning the Conservatives are trending downward, no surprise considering the almost constant barrage of negative press. If we hope to win a majority next election, Mr. Harper needs to come out a lot stronger to get the positives messages out. The robo call thing needs to be settled too.


There is one thing we need to keep in mind when we look at polls over the next year;
Trudeau is going to be given a lot of credit over the next few months for taking the Liberals from the low 20's to likely the low to mid 30's,

The problem is that we were trending in that direction anyway;
In August 2011 the Liberals and NDP were tied; Canada had woken up from its haze and realized what they had done...

http://www.nanosresearch.com/l.....allotE.pdf

Sadly Jack passed away and the NDP did exactly what they should have by having an interesting and diverse leadership race and one which selected a leader in a timely manner (we then saw the polls return to LPC in 3rd) as they were always in the news-cycle.

However the rise of the LPC back to second (which most of us expected) was only a matter of time, however JT will be credited with a trend that existed anyway.

We all tend to forget that Dion led the Liberals to 36% in the Polls;

http://www.nanosresearch.com/l.....8-T290.pdf

Yet it seems the media is throwing Justin a parade for being in the high 20's?

Justin SHOULD poll in the high 30's over a year out from an election; heck EKOS should show him in the 40's.

Anything less then that isn't really doing anything Stephane Dion didn't do.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 2361
Reputation: 163.7Reputation: 163.7
votes: 6

PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2013 9:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:

If we saw a significant drop in folks voting for opposition parties perhaps I would lend a little more to the alienation theory, but by that stretch we would have seen a much worse turnout overall and significantly less for the governing party.

While Ontario voter turnout has been generally awful Ontario voters from 2003 till 2011 only declined around 5% in terms of overall turn out which largely follows the national trend, there is nothing out of the ordinary as it pertains to Ontario voters.

They walked into polling stations twice and voted for the incumbent and record be damned.

Ontario has more often then not lined up and re-elect the incumbent unless there has been a glaring reason not to both Provincially and Federally.

Dislodging incumbents in Ontario has historically been the hardest thing to do in Federal politics, the Conservatives Federally benefit from that incumbency for the first time in a long time and I am perfectly fine to enjoy it for now.


What 'alienation theory'? I think the campaigns run by the Ontario PCs have turned people away from them. That's not alienation, that's revulsion.

You weren't there at the time, but the second I heard of Tory's step on schools, I knew he had blown the election. Why didn't you?

I remember us contending over Hudak's passiviity as he was losing his lead, and you chided me, and defended his strategy as 'the smart move'.

Now you still think the campaigns of Tory (in particular) and Hudak have nothing to do with anything ... It's simply a case of the People of Ontario failing their politicians once again?

It makes me want to quit voting myself! Why support a party that is so willful that I don't have a clue about where they really stand? Hmmmm?
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 2361
Reputation: 163.7Reputation: 163.7
votes: 6

PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2013 9:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:

There is one thing we need to keep in mind when we look at polls over the next year;
Trudeau is going to be given a lot of credit over the next few months for taking the Liberals from the low 20's to likely the low to mid 30's,

The problem is that we were trending in that direction anyway;
In August 2011 the Liberals and NDP were tied; Canada had woken up from its haze and realized what they had done...

http://www.nanosresearch.com/l.....allotE.pdf

Sadly Jack passed away and the NDP did exactly what they should have by having an interesting and diverse leadership race and one which selected a leader in a timely manner (we then saw the polls return to LPC in 3rd) as they were always in the news-cycle.

However the rise of the LPC back to second (which most of us expected) was only a matter of time, however JT will be credited with a trend that existed anyway.

We all tend to forget that Dion led the Liberals to 36% in the Polls;

http://www.nanosresearch.com/l.....8-T290.pdf

Yet it seems the media is throwing Justin a parade for being in the high 20's?

Justin SHOULD poll in the high 30's over a year out from an election; heck EKOS should show him in the 40's.

Anything less then that isn't really doing anything Stephane Dion didn't do.


I just hope you guys understand, as you 'engineer' another election attempt, that the dominance of the Conservative Party depends on splitting the opposition as evenly as possible.

No new ideas, two wasted appointments to the Supreme Court ... (can we not find a single legally trained mind in this woe-begone country that can understand the the Charter shouldn't be over-ruled by a ideological bunch of deformed minds working in the Human Rights Commissions?) And a deficit that's about the same relative size as Britain's.

All this smugness just sets us up for a Trudeau win.
tpsdoodle





Joined: 25 Jan 2011
Posts: 227
Reputation: 41.3Reputation: 41.3Reputation: 41.3Reputation: 41.3
votes: 6

PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2013 11:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Harper will not win the next election anyway......... He has not delivered what he promised and Canadians are sick of his bullshit cover-ups, spending, and lack of vision..... The old boys club is alive and well, he does a better job in opposition where he can deliver his rhetoric and not actually deliver..... Doing well at that......
Progressive Tory





Joined: 04 Dec 2010
Posts: 742
Reputation: 65.8
votes: 1

PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2013 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't see how Harper hasn't delivered on promises.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 2361
Reputation: 163.7Reputation: 163.7
votes: 6

PostPosted: Mon Mar 11, 2013 8:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I thought I was the only one.

http://abearsrant.com/2013/03/.....7s+Rant%29

The time has come for a radical reduction in the size of the government itself. This comes way before we get involved in quixotic ventures like abolishing the Senate -- at least, according to my priorities.

The spending is a problem. I understand the pressures, but those are not likely to lessen in the coming years. And it's too high. We have a demographic time-bomb looming, as the baby boomers retire.

Closely linked is the size of government itself. Why do we have all these government employees? Do we really need a post office anymore? Or Indian Affairs? Or sexist policies that favour women and immigrants in everything from government employment to access to education?

Or a government funded Human Rights industry?

When are we going to recognize that the whole Human Rights industry in this country is little else but a way of circumventing the Charter? We have a Supreme Court that has no real respect for that document, and think its provisions have to be 'balanced' with whatever ruling the BC Human Rights Commission makes in regard to lesbians, and their right to live a life unperturbed by the reactions their weirdness rouses in other people ... No, the Charter is supposed to be the prime directive, the basic law!!! Can't we find a single lawyer in the nation that understands this?

And why is the government in charge of funding 'culture' ... why can't the fat cats pay for their own National Ballet without forcing the general public to subsidize it?

There is so much crap that could be cleared out of government without stopping meat inspections that it's crazy. And it isn't going to be done by this government. Bottom line.

They watch their poll results, and rely upon TV ads to deconstruct the new candidates, as they appear. And they ignore us. They offer us no vision, nothing but implacable silence. They only stay in power because the alternative seems to be worse.
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 6425
Reputation: 243.4
votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:


What 'alienation theory'? I think the campaigns run by the Ontario PCs have turned people away from them. That's not alienation, that's revulsion.

You weren't there at the time, but the second I heard of Tory's step on schools, I knew he had blown the election. Why didn't you?


Define "blown"
Tory was never once ahead during the election campaign or the months leading up to it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O.....nion_polls

Tory failed during the election by not focusing on the regions that actually had an interest in voting Conservative, and by running in a riding that he wasn't going to win without major support in a region that isnt exactly PC friendly he had subjected himself to the same fate Liz May did in 2008 by having to spend most of her time in a riding she was in a dogfight to win rather then actually hitting the road.

Tory was the wrong leader because he was selling his vision to the wrong voters, and this was clear a year before the election.

Faith-based funding gets tossed around as the "reason" he lost, but the reality is he was well outside the MoE behind the Liberals when that platform came out.

Bugs wrote:
I remember us contending over Hudak's passiviity as he was losing his lead, and you chided me, and defended his strategy as 'the smart move'.

Now you still think the campaigns of Tory (in particular) and Hudak have nothing to do with anything ... It's simply a case of the People of Ontario failing their politicians once again?


Tory's entire approach leading up to the election was wrong;
Trying to out Liberal the Liberals was wrong,
Marketing Conservative politics regardless of how progressive to the 416 was wrong,
Its indefensible.

Hudak on the other hand increased his party's seat total by 50%.
Do I think it was the right approach?

Damn right I do.

I wouldn't have replaced Harper after 2006 or 2008 because he grew the party and he grew the amount of MP's in the Commons, Hudak has done basically the same thing Harper did in 2004 by reducing a majority Liberal government to a minority and having them leader-swap, if he wins a minority in the next election I wouldn't replace him either. If he matches his totals or decreases his totals that's a different story.

The PC's were a scatter tribe from 2003 onward, no power-base, no safe regions, just a bunch of mixed MPP's from all over and an appeal that was far too broad for anyone to vote for.

Now he has a stranglehold on the regions that Harper was so successful in adding and making into safe ridings in 2006 onward.

The PC's are no longer wasting time and resources trying to keep seats, because Eastern Ontario, Central Ontario, and Midwestern Ontario are polling in the 50% range they are now working on adding support the exact same approach taken by the Federal Party from 2004 onward in Ontario.

Demanding "Instant Victory" or suffer "Instant Replacement" is why the Federal Liberals are selecting their 4th leader in seven years and why they are a party of 34 elected MP's.

Bugs wrote:
Why support a party that is so willful that I don't have a clue about where they really stand? Hmmmm?


This is not intended directly at you, just a general frustration about the situation in general which was sparked by the above comment.

The 2011 campaign was particularly frustrating and I wish I had the time and energy to find my rant from back then but watching the same folks claiming "CBC is brainwashing us" and we are only getting one side of the story turning around and calling Hudak's platform Liberal was evidence that this CBC-centric, only heading the headlines approach to campaigning really did benefit the Liberals.


Hudak's platform was the most Conservative union busting, tax cutting, government reducing platform I had seen since 1999.

I recall posting a point by point version of it somewhere in these forums which apparently "surprised" some folks as it was pretty darn Conservative, yet no one bothered to go to the website and read the platform?

The problem is that we all found ourselves willing to take the Toronto Stars word on the fact that it was Liberal rather then reading the damn thing.

The 2011 PC platform is no longer on the PC site;
However the below does do a good job highlighting it:

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2011/0.....-platform/


Last edited by cosmostein on Mon Mar 11, 2013 12:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
Post new topic   Reply to topic Page 1 of 3

Goto page 1, 2, 3  Next  


 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum


Conservative Party Leadership

phpBBCopyright 2001, 2005 phpBB