Justin Trudeau could help Liberals regain Ontario: Poll Justin Trudeau could help federal Liberals take back their traditional stronghold in Ontario if he were chosen leader this spring, according to a new poll.
Justin Trudeau could help federal Liberals take back their traditional stronghold in Ontario if he were chosen leader this spring, according to a new poll.
But a Trudeau-led Liberal party would still have only a slight edge over the Conservatives, who have built strong inroads in the province in the past few years, says the poll, conducted among more than 1,000 Ontarians earlier this week.
About 38 per cent of Ontario respondents told Forum that they would be inclined to vote Liberal if Trudeau becomes leader on April 14, as is widely expected.
That’s nearly a 10-percentage-point boost for the fortunes of the Liberal party, which currently has the support of about 29 per cent of Ontarians, the poll found.
But it’s just three percentage points ahead of the 35 per cent of Ontarians who told the pollsters that they would vote for the Conservatives if Trudeau takes the helm of the Liberal party. Conservatives have built much of that strength in the GTA suburbs, as seen in their increasing Ontario seat count since 2006.
“Trudeau at the head of the party brings the province back in line (for the Liberals,)” Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, says in the release accompanying the poll. “Otherwise, the Conservative support in the 905 area code is unshakeable.”
The Trudeau boost for the Liberals would come mainly at the expense of the New Democratic Party, the poll found.
Only 19 per cent of Ontarians said they would vote NDP if Trudeau were leading the Liberals, Forum found, compared to the 24 per cent who back the NDP when no mention was made of leaders in the polling questions.
A Trudeau-led Liberal party would attract about one third of the Ontario voters who now say they back the provincial NDP, and about a quarter of those who call themselves federal NDP supporters, the poll found.
Trudeau’s appeal is particularly strong among women, in the 416 area code of downtown Toronto, in northeastern Ontario and among middle-income voters, earning between $60,000 to $80,000 a year, the poll found.
The poll was conducted on Wednesday through a telephone survey of 1,053 Ontarians aged 18 or older. Results are considered accurate within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
You could think that the juggernaut is preparing himself for his coronation ... but I comfort myself because I have suspected for years that polls of this nature are more propaganda than a genuine reading of the public mood.
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Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:05 am Post subject:
As I said in the other thread.
Be prepared for JT to lead outside the margin of error for anywhere from 6 - 12 months, Dion led, Iggy drew within the MoE, even Bob Rae enjoyed a small bounce, and of course Thomas Mulcair reversed the falling fortunes of the NDP for a while....
If Justin is polling by a large margin ahead of Harper in October 2014 then we can start to have a discussion about his impact, but over the next year it will be about new and fresh while every last skeleton of his young life gets aired for the public to see.
What I found surprising is the fact that the Liberal support in Ontario came largely (almost 3:1) from the NDP rather then the CPC which is IMO ideal.
Prior to the 2011 election the CPC polling 3rd in Ontario from time to time (within the MoE mind you) wasn't uncommon with the most razor thin of leads when they were ahead, prior to the 2008 election the Liberals led more often then not in Ontario with the CPC always lagging behind (often outside the MoE)
I am greatly surprised the CPC is holding support in Ontario, For months I had been attributing the CPC victory in the 905's almost entirely to that regions fear of the term "Prime Minister Layton", however it does appear that the CPC base in Ontario (and the 905's specifically) has firmed up a fair bit since they were granted a majority.
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