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RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 9:29 am    Post subject: Liberals still 3rd in recent poll , cpc maintains lead Reply with quote

( new abacus poll 35 cpc , 31 ndp , 21 lib )

Despite Trudeau, Liberals still trail Tories, NDP
Updated
7:25 pm, February 7th, 2013





Liberal MP Justin Trudeau

Credits: CRAIG GLOVER The London Free Press / QMI AGENCY


DAVID AKIN | PARLIAMENTARY BUREAU CHIEF




OTTAWA - While Justin Trudeau is getting Liberal voters excited in that party's leadership race, there are no signs his candidacy has ignited a new Trudeaumania among all voters.

A new poll done exclusively for QMI Agency shows that voters in Canada continue to remain divided largely along the same partisan lines as they did in the 2011 general election.

Abacus Data found that, across the country, the Conservatives have the support of 35% of voters, the NDP 31% and the Liberals 21%.

"Although the Liberal leadership race is in full swing, it has had little effect on Liberal fortunes across the country," Abacus CEO David Coletto said. "Support for the Conservatives is down from the 2011 election but neither the NDP nor the Liberals have gained either.

"Like much of Canada, the federal political landscape seems to be in a deep freeze."

For this poll, Abacus paid particular attention to Ontario voters and found the city of Toronto remains one of the last bastions of strong Liberal support in the country.

But in the suburban ring around Toronto, the Conservatives top the charts.

That division could have implications for the next general election because 30 new ridings will be in play, most of them in the suburban rings around Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver.

And while Conservative support seems relatively solid across the country, Coletto suggests that there has been movement between NDP and Liberal supporters - and could be more.

"The NDP has been able to maintain most of its supporters from the 2011 federal election while attracting some support from previous Liberal supporters," Coletto said.

"However, due to the underwhelming impressions of Tom Mulcair outside of Quebec, this support is likely soft and up for grabs if the Liberals can generate some excitement around whoever their new leader is."

Liberals pick their new leader in April. Trudeau has overwhelmingly raised the most money in that race and, according to polls by Abacus and other researchers, he holds out the most promise of resuscitating the Liberal brand.

Abacus surveyed 1,832 Canadians between Feb. 5 and 6 using an online survey. The pollster weighted the survey sample by age, gender, region and education level according to the most recent census data.

The method is widely used and, according to the industry association of which the pollster is a member, is believed to be capable of producing accurate results.

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/s.....80013.html
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 11:55 am    Post subject: Re: Liberals still 3rd in recent poll , cpc maintains lead Reply with quote

RCO wrote:

In the suburban ring around Toronto, the Conservatives top the charts.

That division could have implications for the next general election because 30 new ridings will be in play, most of them in the suburban rings around Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver.


This is key
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 5:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Forum has them at 30%, compared to 32% for the CPC. With hair and teeth as leader the LPC moves into maoirity territory.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2013 7:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another view ... if this poll is right, the Conservatives are probably in a lot of trubble ...

Quote:
Liberals under Justin Trudeau could clinch a majority, new poll shows

If a federal election were held in Canada today and Justin Trudeau were at the helm of the Liberal Party, they'd nab a strong majority in the House of Commons, says a Forum Poll for the National Post.

If a federal election were held in Canada today and Justin Trudeau were at the helm of the Liberal Party, they’d win a strong majority in the House of Commons, says a Forum Poll for the National Post.

Forty-one per cent of poll respondents said they’d vote Liberal in this scenario, granting the party 164 of the 308 seats in the house. The Tories would get 30% of the vote and 93 seats, and the NDP would get 20% of the vote and 45 seats.

With six per cent of the vote, the Bloc Quebecois would get five seats. Two per cent of the vote would go to the Green Party, which would retain its single seat.

Surprisingly, much of the new support for the Trudeau-led Liberals came from other parties: 35% from the Greens, 25% from the NDP and even 10% from the Conservatives.

“After a brief setback last month, it appears the Trudeau Express is back on track, crushing everything in its way,” said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.

“The support which the Green Party and the NDP bleed to the Trudeau Liberals must be worrisome for them, if not for the Conservatives.”

Strong support for the Liberal party also came from Ontario, where 45% of respondents said they’d support the Grits if Trudeau were in charge. Forty-six per cent of respondents from the Prairies said the same, as did 47% of respondents in Atlantic Canada.

Although Trudeau isn’t the only contender in the federal Liberal leadership race, most pundits and politicians expect him to win. He raised $600,000 in the first three months of the race.

At the first Liberal leadership debates last week, Trudeau criticized the Tories’ tough-on-crime approach, touting his plans to use community policing and youth sports to keep kids on the right path.

But projected results of a federal election change when names are removed from the equation, according to the poll results.

The portion of the vote for the Liberals and the Tories would be nearly identical — 30% and 32% respectively — earning the Conservative party a slim minority with 129 seats. These numbers represent a dip in support for the Conservatives and a surge for the Liberals.

The Liberals would win 86 seats in this scenario. With 26% of the vote, the NDP would get 81 seats. The Bloc would get six per cent of the vote and 11 seats, and the Greens four per cent of the vote and one seat.

Stephen Harper’s approval rating also dipped this month, down four percentage points to 32%.

Pollsters interviewed a random sampling of 1,091 Canadians over the age of 18 using an interactive voice response telephone survey.

Based on the total sample, results are considered accurate +/- three per cent, 19 times out of 20.
http://news.nationalpost.com/2.....oll-shows/
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2013 8:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Tories may have to dump Harper before the next election for James Moore if these numbers hold.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 9:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
Another view ... if this poll is right, the Conservatives are probably in a lot of trubble ...

Quote:
Liberals under Justin Trudeau could clinch a majority, new poll shows

If a federal election were held in Canada today and Justin Trudeau were at the helm of the Liberal Party, they'd nab a strong majority in the House of Commons, says a Forum Poll for the National Post.

If a federal election were held in Canada today and Justin Trudeau were at the helm of the Liberal Party, they’d win a strong majority in the House of Commons, says a Forum Poll for the National Post.

Forty-one per cent of poll respondents said they’d vote Liberal in this scenario, granting the party 164 of the 308 seats in the house. The Tories would get 30% of the vote and 93 seats, and the NDP would get 20% of the vote and 45 seats.

With six per cent of the vote, the Bloc Quebecois would get five seats. Two per cent of the vote would go to the Green Party, which would retain its single seat.

Surprisingly, much of the new support for the Trudeau-led Liberals came from other parties: 35% from the Greens, 25% from the NDP and even 10% from the Conservatives.

“After a brief setback last month, it appears the Trudeau Express is back on track, crushing everything in its way,” said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.

“The support which the Green Party and the NDP bleed to the Trudeau Liberals must be worrisome for them, if not for the Conservatives.”

Strong support for the Liberal party also came from Ontario, where 45% of respondents said they’d support the Grits if Trudeau were in charge. Forty-six per cent of respondents from the Prairies said the same, as did 47% of respondents in Atlantic Canada.

Although Trudeau isn’t the only contender in the federal Liberal leadership race, most pundits and politicians expect him to win. He raised $600,000 in the first three months of the race.

At the first Liberal leadership debates last week, Trudeau criticized the Tories’ tough-on-crime approach, touting his plans to use community policing and youth sports to keep kids on the right path.

But projected results of a federal election change when names are removed from the equation, according to the poll results.

The portion of the vote for the Liberals and the Tories would be nearly identical — 30% and 32% respectively — earning the Conservative party a slim minority with 129 seats. These numbers represent a dip in support for the Conservatives and a surge for the Liberals.

The Liberals would win 86 seats in this scenario. With 26% of the vote, the NDP would get 81 seats. The Bloc would get six per cent of the vote and 11 seats, and the Greens four per cent of the vote and one seat.

Stephen Harper’s approval rating also dipped this month, down four percentage points to 32%.

Pollsters interviewed a random sampling of 1,091 Canadians over the age of 18 using an interactive voice response telephone survey.

Based on the total sample, results are considered accurate +/- three per cent, 19 times out of 20.
http://news.nationalpost.com/2.....oll-shows/


Just to help deal with the pending drama;

When Justin Trudeau wins Liberal leadership he WILL be polling ahead of Harper, likely for the next six to eight months which will cause every panic merchant to call for exactly what shouldn't be done (IE replacing Harper)

Dion polled ahead of Harper, Ignatieff polled ahead of Harper, and now without the BQ to drag down the national numbers I suspect that Trudeau will poll ahead of Harper for a while.

Every party benefits from a new leader bump, ALL OF THEM.
Trudeau's will likely be higher for a while.

Two and a half years is a lot of time;
I suspect the NDP and CPC will be all guns a blazing regarding Trudeau in that time.

If the CPC is polling in second outside the MoE in January 2015 then we MAY have something to discuss


Last edited by cosmostein on Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:48 am; edited 1 time in total
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just for the sake of the counterpoint:

Nanos Research:

CPC: 34.2
LPC: 27.1
NDP: 27.6
BQ: 4.1
GPC: 4.7

http://www.nanosresearch.com/l.....allotE.pdf

Abacus Research:

CPC: 35
LPC: 21
NDP: 31
BQ: 6
GPC: 6

http://abacusdata.ca/wp-conten.....Abacus.pdf

Now if tradition holds; since we have seen a lot of poll showing the CPC doing fairly well (mid 30's) and since EKOS gave the CPC a fairly respectable showing in their last poll (a lead outside the MoE over the next closest party!!!) I fully expect EKOS to have a poll out in the next week or so with the LPC statistically tied (or leading within the MoE) over the CPC and the GPC having some insanely inflated number (<7)
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

i don't know where the forum poll is getting there numbers , i'm becoming a little suspious of there justin trudeau would get 40% polls that they keep puting out as none of the other companies have the liberals that high . i think to be more realistic he'd bring them up to around 30% but still be in a tie with ndp and cpc ahead of both by a small margin . i don't think the liberals can pass the ndp by the margins forum suggested unless the ndp complete falls apart and that doesn't appear to be happening .
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
i don't know where the forum poll is getting there numbers , i'm becoming a little suspious of there justin trudeau would get 40% polls that they keep puting out as none of the other companies have the liberals that high . i think to be more realistic he'd bring them up to around 30% but still be in a tie with ndp and cpc ahead of both by a small margin . i don't think the liberals can pass the ndp by the margins forum suggested unless the ndp complete falls apart and that doesn't appear to be happening .


I have no issue believing the Forums outcome;
Outside the context of an election the alternative is always better, and in JT's case he is a young, fresh, hip alternative outside the context of an election.

As I said above, fully expect him to poll ahead of Harper for a few months after he wins the leadership.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Angus Reid said Trudeau could get 40% too, I think only Angus and Forum have asked "if Trudeau were leader..."
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have watched all the prior recent Liberal leadership races closely. We shouldn't be deluded that this is the same as the two previous races.

It isn't. The previous attempts were of a different character than this one.

The difference is the way Mr Sinclair-Trudeau is being groomed, and how his handlers are capitalizing on the Trudeau name. They seem to have cleared the way to a coronation.

This is a different kind of operation.

And never forget -- they have the media in their pocket. They have Electlons-Canada in their pocket. They don't need contributors.

Trudeau faces a treacherous path, because he has to demolish the NDP in Quebec, which inevitably means dipping into English-speaking Canada's pockets. I think we can trust the media to keep that under wraps.

And, on the other hand, the Conservatives haven't really produced for their base. They are vulnerable because we are still running deficits. They haven't done anything to address the imbalance between the various Human Rights Commissions and Charter Rights. The social conservatives might be unhappy.

What happens if Quebec again enters mainstream politics? With an impending economic crunch coming -- argue as you might about the shape it will take, some kind of economic day of reckoning lies ahead -- who can be sure that someone with a full head of hair and a fetching smile won't ruin everything?
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:


Now if tradition holds; since we have seen a lot of poll showing the CPC doing fairly well (mid 30's) and since EKOS gave the CPC a fairly respectable showing in their last poll (a lead outside the MoE over the next closest party!!!) I fully expect EKOS to have a poll out in the next week or so with the LPC statistically tied (or leading within the MoE) over the CPC and the GPC having some insanely inflated number (<7)


I actually laughed out loud when I saw the EKOS polls came out;
It appears my prediction from the 11th in many regards came to pass.

CPC: 29.3
LPC: 26.3
NDP: 24.6
BQ: 7.2
GPC: 9.5

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp.....6_2013.pdf
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