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Bugs





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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 2:48 pm    Post subject: The Ontario Liberal Leadership Election results Reply with quote

First ballot

Eric Hoskins .............. 150 votes

Gerard Kennedy ......... 281 votes

Sandra Pupatello ........ 599 votes

Charles Sousa ............ 222 votes

Harinder Talhar .......... 235 votes

Kathleen Wynne ......... 597 votes

Hoskins is removed from the ballot automatically for the second round. Hoskins has endorsed Wynne. Now Sousa is on the bubble.

Late development ... Talhar has withdrawn, and endorced Pupatello.

We'll see if there's any coattails in this election.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 3:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Far close then I expected;
However the endorsements went in line with what I figured.

Kennedy was frantically trying to secure Takhar till this morning;
Its clear he is cooked.

I think Pupatello has this;
Sousa is a mercenary I suspect whoever gives him the better deal gets his backing, (the discussion is that Pupatello has promised Takhar deputy Premier and Sousa will be Finance Minister)

It really comes down to who can carry their delegates;
Kennedy would almost be smart to endorse Wynne in exchange for the best deal possible and if she loses just not run as a candidate in the next election.

The scuttlebutt on the floor is fear-mongering from the left flank of the party claiming that a leader like Pupatello or Sousa causes them to cede more ground to the NDP...

The talk is that Pupatello will be up by over 100 in the second ballot as most of Takhar
support has been carried over whereas it appears to not be the case with Hoskins who may be split amongst Wynne and Kennedy

Should have the next results shortly.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 5:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Second Ballot results ...

Gerard Kennedy ......... 285 ..... +4 votes

Sandra Pupatello ........ 817 ..... +218

Charles Sousa ............ 203 ..... n/c

Harinder Takhar ......... 18 ..... -217

Kathleen Wynne ........ 750 ..... +253
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 5:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And Kathleen Wynne will become the next Premier of Ontario.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 5:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Far close then I expected;
However the endorsements went in line with what I figured.

Kennedy was frantically trying to secure Takhar till this morning;
Its clear he is cooked.

I think Pupatello has this;
Sousa is a mercenary I suspect whoever gives him the better deal gets his backing, (the discussion is that Pupatello has promised Takhar deputy Premier and Sousa will be Finance Minister)

It really comes down to who can carry their delegates;
Kennedy would almost be smart to endorse Wynne in exchange for the best deal possible and if she loses just not run as a candidate in the next election.

The scuttlebutt on the floor is fear-mongering from the left flank of the party claiming that a leader like Pupatello or Sousa causes them to cede more ground to the NDP...

The talk is that Pupatello will be up by over 100 in the second ballot as most of Takhar
support has been carried over whereas it appears to not be the case with Hoskins who may be split amongst Wynne and Kennedy

Should have the next results shortly.


It looks likely that whoever gets Takhar and Sousa will not get Kennedy. Projecting what you said ahead, it would mean that Pupartello will end up with something around 1035 votes. If Wynne gets Kennedy, she gets around 1035. How about that?

I find myself liking Pupatello far better than Wynne ... but do I want the Ontario PCs facing off against her? She's such an improvement on Dalton, just as a performer, that it once again underlines McG's mediocrity. She wants to go after the Red Tories to get her majority.

But what makes us think that Hudak would handle he civil service unions, including the teachers, any better than she would?

Late developments ... it seems Kennedy has withdrawn, and thrown his support to Wynne, and that Sousa also went to Wynne. If so, Wynne should win by 400 votes.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wynne has won by 284 votes.

I think Hudak ought to thank his lucky stars.

I read some of the comments over at the CBC's site. It seems that a significant proportion of Liberals see Wynne as the one they want to present to the NDP as their peace-maker. Also, to get the civil service unions back in pocket ...

Outside, the unions are baying like wolves, salivating in anticipation of another raid on the provincial treasury, after making the government back down ...

In my minds' eye, I imagine McGuinty in wrap-around sunglasses, sitting in a cabana sipping something made with rum ... in a South American country where they don't have extradition treaties.
reidjr





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PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 6:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
Wynne has won by 284 votes.

I think Hudak ought to thank his lucky stars.

I read some of the comments over at the CBC's site. It seems that a significant proportion of Liberals see Wynne as the one they want to present to the NDP as their peace-maker. Also, to get the civil service unions back in pocket ...

Outside, the unions are baying like wolves, salivating in anticipation of another raid on the provincial treasury, after making the government back down ...

In my minds' eye, I imagine McGuinty in wrap-around sunglasses, sitting in a cabana sipping something made with rum ... in a South American country where they don't have extradition treaties.


What scares me is at what cost do they want to get the unions back does that mean teachers get a huge pay increase say 20% i hope i am wrong but this is a fear i have.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 9:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

reidjr wrote:

What scares me is at what cost do they want to get the unions back does that mean teachers get a huge pay increase say 20% i hope i am wrong but this is a fear i have.


This is very thin ice for Wynne. If she rolled back the one bit of redeeming work that Dalton has done of late, it wouldn't work. She has to cut a deal that she'll fix things later, it seems to me.

I see her cutting a deal with the NDP which will give her two years in power, with the NDP in the catbird seat. They will hold the balance of power. (These things usually last about two years, which is about what it takes to get ready for another election.)

I actually pity the poor woman. She seems decent enough. But the Star's Walkom alludes to what Dalton left for her ...

Quote:
Kathleen Wynne has tasted the sweet cup of victory. She may find it a poisoned chalice.

Ontario’s premier-designate inherits a Liberal government enmeshed in scandal and tarred by controversy.

As hundreds of delegates inside Toronto’s old Maple Leaf Gardens cheered the winner of Saturday’s Liberal leadership contest, thousands of protesters outside added a cold dash of reality.

Regardless of who leads it, this is a party — and a government — in deep, deep trouble.

The Liberals are at war with the province’s teachers. If Wynne sticks to the position she supported as a minister in Dalton McGuinty’s cabinet — a position that demands serious spending cuts in order to balance the province’s books — that war will be difficult to end.

More important, this is a government that, in crucial areas, has demonstrated terminal incompetence.

At base, the scandal around the air ambulance service, ORNGE, boils down to one fact: The Liberals allowed a Crown agency to spend public money wildly and perhaps improperly.

Similarly, the controversy over cancelled power plant projects — and the costs incurred — resulted from a singularly cavalier attitude toward public funds.

In Ontario, managerial competence matters. Once a government is deemed incapable of running the store, it is doomed — no matter how charming the leader. Former New Democratic Premier Bob Rae could testify to that

Indeed, governments anywhere can reach a point of no return.

[....]

... Wynne faces a Herculean task. She knows that. As she told delegates in her victory speech: “This was the easy part.”
http://www.thestar.com/news/ca.....of-trouble
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

i don't know what to expect from kathleen wynne . but i somehow suspect she'll be taking the liberals further to the left and go after ndp voters . i can't really see her appealing to voters on the right .
also don't see a leader from downtown toronto really being able to expand the liberals appeal in ridings outside toronto . alot of voters up north are fed up with toronto centric politics and wynne is the perfect representative of downtown toronto politics . i don't see how there possibly going to pick up any ridings up there or in any other rural or small town outside toronto .
but one thing is for sure if you though things were getting better once mcguinty left i think there going to get worse before they get better .
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 11:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know either, but have the same general impression. She came up, as a politician, through the Toronto area school boards, which the NDP uses as a training ground for future candidates ... She defeated John Tory in his own riding, over schools. She later became the Minister of Education in the McGuinty cabinet.

Everything about her says bureaucrat and manager. Except she can give a good speech, and has a record as a negotiator and mediator.

But even if she weren't on the left of the party, the only real strategy she has available to her is to make some kind of deal for NDP support, and to use the time she buys that way to convince Ontarians that her plan is worthy. That's the way it seems to me.

Will conditions be better or worse? The budget bottom line will tell us a lot about that. Her problem is she has to simultaneously embrace the McGuinty era, and undo some of what it did at the same time. Or, at least, deal with the ugly consequences ...
reidjr





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PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
i don't know what to expect from kathleen wynne . but i somehow suspect she'll be taking the liberals further to the left and go after ndp voters . i can't really see her appealing to voters on the right .
also don't see a leader from downtown toronto really being able to expand the liberals appeal in ridings outside toronto . alot of voters up north are fed up with toronto centric politics and wynne is the perfect representative of downtown toronto politics . i don't see how there possibly going to pick up any ridings up there or in any other rural or small town outside toronto .
but one thing is for sure if you though things were getting better once mcguinty left i think there going to get worse before they get better .


If she goes to far left that could create issues in the party as there are some that do lean more to the centre.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

She has said spending won't be increasing so there's not much she can do to attract the Dippers.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 2:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
She has said spending won't be increasing so there's not much she can do to attract the Dippers.


There doesn't have to be a formal coalition. According to Cosmo, the NDP doesn't want another election so soon after the last one -- about a year ago. All they have to do is make sure a few members miss the crucial votes, and quietly go along, while they choose when and over what to pull the plug.

In the meantime, Wynne has to either continue or abandon the budget struggle.

As I see it, getting tough on these issues was the one part of McDalton's record that the mainstream approved of. She can't renounce that without seeing her appeal diminish. That may not be the way it is, but it's the way I see it.

So I imagine her being seriously hemmed in. The NDP and the public sector unions can form a tag-team if she isn't careful.
reidjr





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PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What will be interesting to see is how will Toronto handle a leader thats not pro Toronto.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am shocked that Sousa backed Wynne;
However the guy has always been a merc maybe I shouldnt be that surprised.
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The Ontario Liberal Leadership Election results

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