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cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 9:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
Pupatello's victory seems all but certain. The only way I see her losing this now is if Sousa makes a surprising decision to not go to her on the convention floor.


As it sits:

Pupatello 504 delegates
Wynne 463 delegates
Kennedy 257 delegates
Takhar 244 delegates
Sousa 198 delegates
Hoskins 104 delegates
Indies 67 delegates (Largely former Murray delegates)

Murray also endorsed Kathleen Wynne before dropping out.

If Pupatello locks down Takhar and Sousa and they deliver a good number of their support while it may be close it does appear pretty likely she will be the next Premier.

However, Sousa will likely cede to the best deal made to him.


Last edited by cosmostein on Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:04 am; edited 2 times in total
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You forgot Harinder Takhar who got 244, it seems definite he will go to Pupatello.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
You forgot Harinder Takhar who got 244, it seems definite he will go to Pupatello.


Good Catch!
I knew those numbers looked light.;
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've gotta say, either of these women would be light year improvements over Dalton ...

I prefer Pupatello myself, but you can't dismiss Wynne's accomplishments. The thing is, she was essentially a civil servant herself, and these relationships are incestuous enough as it is. But that's my taste. The fact is that either of these women will be more effective leaders for the Liberals than the odious p.o.s. they're replacing.

What is this going to do to Hudak? Pupatello is likely to run against Dalton's government, and steal his platform. Seriously. That's what I would foresee.

I am less sure about Wynne, but she's an effective speaker, and a sharp politician who can cut a deal.

This is going to change everything.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:

What is this going to do to Hudak? Pupatello is likely to run against Dalton's government, and steal his platform. Seriously. That's what I would foresee.


The advice I would have for the PC's is that you don't let her,

Lets not forget she was in McGunity's government from 1999 - 2011 she may have been one of the first rats to fleet the ship but she was riding it for more then a decade.

My personal favorite bit of history is that she was Minister of International Trade and Investment who's portfolio includes attracting business to Ontario from 2008 to 2011, what a stellar track record during that time.

Her caucus will also be largely populated with the same MPP's who got us into this mess and just because Bentley, McGunity, and Duncan have gone off into the night it does not absolve her party of the situation Ontario finds itself in today.

She would need to campaign on repealing the last year of legislation which I can't see happening.

I also LOVE the optics of the fact that Sousa who is the MPP of one of the ridings that benefited from the power plant cancellation will likely end up as Finance Minister or Deputy Premier in either potential victors caucus.

She forces Hudak to finally embrace the right in the same manner that Harris did;
Long overdue.

Bugs wrote:
I am less sure about Wynne, but she's an effective speaker, and a sharp politician who can cut a deal.

This is going to change everything.


Wynne would make a push to embrace the public sector unions that McGunity has had issues with which would play well in Toronto, Hamilton, and Windsor but not in many other places.

She would be the ideal opponent.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 12:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was surprised to see that Wynne said she would hold spending to 1%.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 1:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
I was surprised to see that Wynne said she would hold spending to 1%.


Wynne needs some non-416 support to win;
I think she is understanding that she may need a guy like Sousa to win.
reidjr





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 3:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Bugs wrote:

What is this going to do to Hudak? Pupatello is likely to run against Dalton's government, and steal his platform. Seriously. That's what I would foresee.


The advice I would have for the PC's is that you don't let her,

Lets not forget she was in McGunity's government from 1999 - 2011 she may have been one of the first rats to fleet the ship but she was riding it for more then a decade.

My personal favorite bit of history is that she was Minister of International Trade and Investment who's portfolio includes attracting business to Ontario from 2008 to 2011, what a stellar track record during that time.

Her caucus will also be largely populated with the same MPP's who got us into this mess and just because Bentley, McGunity, and Duncan have gone off into the night it does not absolve her party of the situation Ontario finds itself in today.

She would need to campaign on repealing the last year of legislation which I can't see happening.

I also LOVE the optics of the fact that Sousa who is the MPP of one of the ridings that benefited from the power plant cancellation will likely end up as Finance Minister or Deputy Premier in either potential victors caucus.

She forces Hudak to finally embrace the right in the same manner that Harris did;
Long overdue.

Bugs wrote:
I am less sure about Wynne, but she's an effective speaker, and a sharp politician who can cut a deal.

This is going to change everything.


Wynne would make a push to embrace the public sector unions that McGunity has had issues with which would play well in Toronto, Hamilton, and Windsor but not in many other places.

She would be the ideal opponent.


The issue is if she was to embrace the unions you risk making many many people upset people don't want to see a pro union leader again.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

How would Michael Bryant have done in this leadership race had it not been for his accident?

I watched an interview he did on The Agenda after he resigned as minister and I have to say though his views were a little crazy I loved his odd ball hyper obnoxiousness.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 12:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

McGuinty's final news conference ...

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/v.....4857662001

The commentary after the news conference is the best part. Strange, people weren't talking this way four or five months ago. It's as if McGuinty's spell has been broken.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:

This is now a race between Sandra Pupatello & Katherine Wynne.

I think as I look down the ticket there are far more folks more inline with Wynne then with Pupatello which would lead me to believe that Wynne will be Ontario's next Premier.

The question for me which no one seems to have answered is if Wynne wins;
Will Pupatello and Kennedy seek election as MPP's in the next election?

It was asked of Bob Rae in 2006 and I think its only reasonable to be asked now.


I still kinda wanna know the answer?

Kennedy can't seriously be considering running against Cheri DiNovo in Parkdale—High Park? Because that isnt exactly an easy climb especially considering how unpopular the OLP is in Toronto Proper.

I would think that part of the endorsement deal was getting either an existing Liberal riding or getting his hands on something a little easier like Trinity—Spadina.

As for Pupatello leading some sort of "center-right" sub-caucus within the OLP to appeal to a broader base in Ontario.

Quote:
Sandra Pupatello's return to politics was short-lived.

The former Windsor West MPP who finished second in the Ontario Liberal Party leadership race on the weekend said she is heading back to the private sector.

"Oh, for sure," she said, when asked directly if she was heading back to the private sector. "I have to work."


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/.....ector.html
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 7:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What if Kennedy realized from the start that he's pretty much a spent force, and entered the leadership race just to see what he could get out of it?

From the moment that he saw he wasn't a real contender, he only had to angle to be the king-maker to advance himself. (I'd have said "queen-maker" except I worried that someone might think I was playing the homosexual card ... ) You know what I mean.

He probably accomplished his two leading goals ... first, he tipped the balance to the left's candidate, and second, he will get himself on the public payroll, somehow, once again. The thing is, if the Liberals don't return to power, it won't mean much.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
What if Kennedy realized from the start that he's pretty much a spent force, and entered the leadership race just to see what he could get out of it?

From the moment that he saw he wasn't a real contender, he only had to angle to be the king-maker to advance himself. (I'd have said "queen-maker" except I worried that someone might think I was playing the homosexual card ... ) You know what I mean.

He probably accomplished his two leading goals ... first, he tipped the balance to the left's candidate, and second, he will get himself on the public payroll, somehow, once again. The thing is, if the Liberals don't return to power, it won't mean much.


I can tell you at least from what I was hearing that Kennedy's camp felt they were a lock to secure leadership from the moment he declared.

From the day the first delegate leader board was released the Kennedy camp had been doing anything in their power to piece together a coalition of non-Wynne, non- Pupatello candidates to back him.

I think backing Wynne was Plan Z.
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Dalton McGuinty stepping down as Ontario premier

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