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cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 2:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:

I know it's a quibble, but I think it's time conservatives stopped using media memes when analysing their political situation. Harper isn't in any way a Margaret Thatcher type. I don't mean to degrade him, but Machiavelli has a point. Harper makes his changes in small increments, without comment. Where Maggie was all sharp edges and in-your-face rhetoric raising the ideological temperature,


I was going to use a Mackenzie King reference rather then a Thatcher one.
My point is not to compare, rather my point is to show the political climate.

Harper is doing a good enough job after about seven years as Prime Minister that I think Canadians are "content" and in no rush to replace him with an unknown commodity.

As for "Febreeze";

Like I have mentioned for years, perhaps its because I came from the unprincipled, non true-blue believer part of the merger (The PC's) I consider myself once again "content enough".

My taxes are lower, owning guns no longer requires me to be treated like a common criminal on parole, we stopped a nationalized daycare program which would have been a multi-billion dollar blunder, we started giving our military the tools to do their job rather then simply sending them everywhere with equipment procured in the 1970's, we have stopped "biting our thumbs" at our largest trade partner for political gain, we have given Canadian business alternatives in terms of global trade, we have stopped punishing Canadian business with ridiculous tax rates, we are no longer placating Quebec in the way we once did, Ontario, Alberta, and BC have finally received the seats they should have had since the mid-1990's, we are finally making adjustments to the criminal code that acknowledge that not every 4 time offender is a product of not enough hugs and we walked away from Kyoto after campaigning on walking away from Kyoto.

You may consider that changing the smell of the room;
As someone who has to deal with most of the above on a day to day basis, I consider the most freeing period for Small and Medium sized Business in Canada in Canadian history.

But again, everyone's perception is different.
There are lots of things I would like to see that I am yet to see, but given the fact that most of this was accomplished in five years of minority governance I am generally pleased with the last seven years.

Bugs wrote:
This is an astute observation.

If you are correct, the Liberals are playing to position themselves to win in two elections from now! Can it be that they are modelling themselves on Dalton McGuinty?

Think about it ... how could the Conservative Party have manoevred more brilliantly? However temporary, how could they have a greater political victory than this?


Actually calling it the McGunity approach is pretty apt!
In 1999 Mike Harris reduced the legislature from 130 to 103 seats, basically pitting any number of Liberal MPP's against eachother and created a situation which basically gamed the election.

Much like adding 27 seats outside of Quebec and re-drawing the riding maps games the election in 2015.

The Liberals were not going to win in 1999, but the hope was simply that they would do better and position themselves in a better spot for the next election.

I can't imagine anyone within the LPC mothership looking at JT and saying "yeah, he would make a great Prime Minister"

This is the Liberals playing the long game, the BQ is dead and the NDP support is soft we could see 70 seats going Liberal in Quebec in 2015 potentially and that ain't bad.

This of course assumes Harper steps down after becoming the 5th longest serving PM in History, he could easily serve another term beyond 2019.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thoughts on Martin Cauchon?
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 1:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
Thoughts on Martin Cauchon?


The single largest threat to the CPC majority in 2015.
Luckily the LPC hasn't realized that, and won't elect him.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 3:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:

As for "Febreeze";

Like I have mentioned for years, perhaps its because I came from the unprincipled, non true-blue believer part of the merger (The PC's) I consider myself once again "content enough".

My taxes are lower, owning guns no longer requires me to be treated like a common criminal on parole, we stopped a nationalized daycare program which would have been a multi-billion dollar blunder, we started giving our military the tools to do their job rather then simply sending them everywhere with equipment procured in the 1970's, we have stopped "biting our thumbs" at our largest trade partner for political gain, we have given Canadian business alternatives in terms of global trade, we have stopped punishing Canadian business with ridiculous tax rates, we are no longer placating Quebec in the way we once did, Ontario, Alberta, and BC have finally received the seats they should have had since the mid-1990's, we are finally making adjustments to the criminal code that acknowledge that not every 4 time offender is a product of not enough hugs and we walked away from Kyoto after campaigning on walking away from Kyoto.

You may consider that changing the smell of the room;
As someone who has to deal with most of the above on a day to day basis, I consider the most freeing period for Small and Medium sized Business in Canada in Canadian history.

But again, everyone's perception is different.
There are lots of things I would like to see that I am yet to see, but given the fact that most of this was accomplished in five years of minority governance I am generally pleased with the last seven years.


You seem to dislike my metaphor. I understand.

What I was getting at is that Harper proceeds in that Bill Davis/Mackenzie King way, by incremental practical changes. I didn't mean that Harper stinks things up in the least. I meant that he improved things almost imperceptibly, while the opposition is looking for hard edge that they can use to draw a line in the sand ...

The other choice is to make a lot of eclat about some aspect of what government does, and hope that the media (and thus, the publc) keep their attention on where the spotlight is.

To be clear, I think that (at least in Canada) this incremental approach often works best. Bill Davis took Ontario's old drinking laws apart and nobody hardly noticed ... and that had been one of the 'third rail' issues. I commend Harper for being shrewd enough to see it.

Sorry if my metaphor threw you off, but I don't think we disagree very much on this one.

==============================

I feel bad about the way you talk about the old federal PCs ... personally, my malice mostly comes from hindsight. I see now, in my mature years, that the old PCs didn't really have anything particularly 'conservative' about them by today's lights.

In the old days, before my time, they were all about the Imperial connection ... otherwise, they mostly agreed with the Liberals. When Britain decided that the membership in the Commonwealth meant nothing, so far as trade preferences were concerned, and that it was throwing its lot in with the ECC, the old PCs were left high and dry, as far as having a coherent different choice for Canadians.

They said "me too" to the welfare state, as it was being created, and they accepted the emerging gender politics of the time. Perhaps you can understand if I find it hard to see how they gave us much of an alternative. But I also accept that is is probably where most of the country was at at the time.

But, as I said, that was all hindsight for me. It was Meech Lake that shook the cobwebs out of my skull ....
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 5:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:
Thoughts on Martin Cauchon?


The single largest threat to the CPC majority in 2015.
Luckily the LPC hasn't realized that, and won't elect him.


Oh, interesting.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 9:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
Progressive Tory wrote:
Thoughts on Martin Cauchon?


The single largest threat to the CPC majority in 2015.
Luckily the LPC hasn't realized that, and won't elect him.


Oh, interesting.


This is the problem as I see it;
Quebec voters are political mercenaries, and their media will turn on you faster and quicker then a hungry pet king cobra.

The second a more popular leader (in the eyes of Quebec) is elected they will turn on Mulcair and the NDP rank of 20 something MP's in a heartbeat.

In the case of JT, I am not convinced he can not crash and burn in the eyes of the rest of Canada when the NDP and CPC spend millions of dollars vetting his pre-political life, regardless he will win Quebec huge,

However the CPC doesn't need Quebec to win, especially not with 27 seats being added outside of Quebec when 24 of the top 27 most under represented ridings are held by CPC MP's.

Martin Cauchon is a smart guy who can do what was done in the past and come off as both a fiscal conservative and a beatnik hippy in two different speeches given on the same day, he also isn't a wuss like Dion and is viewed in a positive light by most folks in Quebec.

He also strikes me as the type of guy that Toronto and Vancouver Liberals could rally around and that sort of rebirth of support could harm the CPC in the GTA which ultimately holds the key to the next majority.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting, he could become the default second choice now. I believe he could be the second youngest candidate as well, he could be leader for 15 years easily. He might be their best hope, though his loss to Mulcair is horrible for his bid.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Sat Jan 19, 2013 6:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So polling is now showing that most people don't know who Martin Cauchon is. Seems as though he may have waited to long to get back into politics.

I just saw a tweet that Martha Hall Findlay retweeted by someone who said MHF was in an argument with someone over whether she is running in 2015 or not. Despite her saying she may not run in 2015, that's not what she meant and she plans to run. Martha seemed to have a lot of promise but the more she opens her mouth the more her campaign goes downhill IMO. If the media covered her like that did Trudeau I would say she has more of a tendency to stick her foot in her mouth.

So MHF may or may not raise the GST, she may or may not raise taxes on the "rich", and she may or may not run in 2015. She also favours a price on carbon but she won't raise any taxes when the economy is "sluggish". I don't even know what that means exactly, we live in a country with 10 provinces and 3 territories. There are provinces now where the economy is doing well and others where it's doing horrible. Even when the economy is good in most of the country there are still areas where it "sluggish". For someone who prides herself on having substance and having clear policies that not everyone will like she's not doing a great job of telling us where she stands.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sun Jan 20, 2013 11:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think she's just positioning herself as the right of center candidate. At this point, the more she can be in the news, internet and mainstream, the better.

The importance of Martin Cauchon is that he has a lot of respect in Quebec. In the old days, it wouldn't have mattered very much if we know him or not. But it isn't the old days. Now, anybody with $10 can vote.

Giving the NDP the heave-ho as spokesparty for Quebec is probably Job One at Liberal HQ these days. Some may judge that Cauchon's a better man for the job than Trudeau fils.

Back to Martha ... in leadership struggles, it comes down to the center-left candidate vrs the center-right candidate. The first goal, for Martha, is to become the center-right standard-bearer. It's the best step she can make to make sure she's on the final ballot, and a central figure in the party going into the future.

She must feel she can defend what she says (for the media) but her main purpose is to position herself as the leading center-right candidate.

I think it's a good move, because it distinguishes her from the rest of the pack. It's like Cauchon and Trudeau are the leading candidates for those that think reclaiming Quebec, after all these years, is the top priority ... and Martha is framing herself as the candidate to go after Harper on wonkish issues.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Sun Jan 20, 2013 1:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Raising the GST, income taxes on the rich and implementing carbon taxes on top of it all doesn't sound to right-wing.

Garneau is looking much better then MHF now. No-name George Takach is supposedly on the right too.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Sun Jan 20, 2013 9:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anybody tune in to the debate?
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2013 1:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
Raising the GST, income taxes on the rich and implementing carbon taxes on top of it all doesn't sound to right-wing.

Garneau is looking much better then MHF now. No-name George Takach is supposedly on the right too.


Good point about Garneau, although who knew he has so many worked out positions? He needs to get a media presence.

I still feel that Martha is positioning herself right now, and she probably isn't that committed to some of the things she has talked about.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2013 2:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
So polling is now showing that most people don't know who Martin Cauchon is. Seems as though he may have waited to long to get back into politics.


And thank goodness for that;
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2013 2:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
Anybody tune in to the debate?


What I took away from the debate is that Justin Trudeau is as much of a dullard as folks have promised he would be.

Aside from Joyce Murray the other six candidates appear to be doing nothing then attempting to posture for position within a Justin Trudeau led Liberal Party.

When Murray asked JT what his vision for Canada was; he looked almost shocked to be questioned by another candidate, his response was also nothing short of what I would expect from a 7th grade paper on "why I love Canada"

I almost wish Duceppe was still leading the Bloc, because he would have destroyed Justin in the context of either debate.

Garneau took a shot at "life experience" toward the end but this race is over and we all know who is going to win.


Last edited by cosmostein on Mon Jan 21, 2013 6:51 pm; edited 3 times in total
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2013 4:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Personally, I take my hat off to you for bringing back your impressions. I wanted to listen but ended up watching the 49er's march to the Superbowl.

It's hard to believe that the Liberals have become so craven and opportunistic that they can rally behind such a low-watt pretty face ... they've clearly lost their 'gravitas'.

In fact, I find myself looking for some characteristic that would justify Justin's anointment. I believe in competition. I suspect the quality of the Conservative Party will decline if this is the kind of opposition that the Liberals throw up.

Maybe we should start calling him Justin Sinclair ... just to remind folks.

So, why isn't this a race? Why is Garneau so passive? Why did Cauchon enter so late? This reminds me of the McGuinty convention, when the 'anybody but Kennedy' wing of the party led to the fifth place candidate to become the premier for way too long. Is this going to be the Federal equivalent of the same thing? Look at how that worked out!
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2013 Liberal Leadership Race - April 14, 2013

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