*NEW* Login or register using your Facebook account.
Not a member? Join the fastest growing conservative community!
Membership is free and takes 15 seconds
CLICK HERE or use Facebook to login or register ---->
  |
|
Page 2 of 3
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
|
 Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 4:16 pm Post subject: |
 |
|
Its going to be interesting;
I wish someone would actually do a regional poll of Quebec to see of the CAQ is doing well everywhere or solely in areas that ADQ dominated in 2007, because that could make a big difference. |
|
|
|
 |
Bugs
Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 1942
  
votes: 5
|
| Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 9:29 am Post subject: |
|
|
It looks as if the province is disgusted with Charest's government, now flaccid and corrupt after all these years. The problem has been that the opposition will bring with them another referendum.
The next stage will come if/when federalist Quebec realizes that the CAQ can actually achieve power.
| Quote: | New poll finds CAQ catching up with Quebec Liberals
No need to guess why Quebec Liberal Leader Jean Charest has aggressively turned his guns against François Legault, leader of the new Coalition Avenir Québec. A new poll shows Mr. Legault’s party is eating into the Liberal vote. And Quebeckers now rate Mr. Legault as the best candidate for premier.
The poll, conducted by CROP for La Presse between Sunday and Tuesday, shows the Parti Québécois’s Pauline Marois has widened her lead over Mr. Charest’s Liberals. And the CAQ is catching up.
It concluded 34 per cent intended to vote for the PQ, 27 per cent for Mr. Charest’s Liberals, and 25 per cent for the CAQ. (That’s after the pollster allocated undecided voters, who made up a sizable 19 per cent of respondents.) CROP surveyed 1,005 Quebeckers for the poll, which makes it statistically accurate within 3.1 percentage points.
And for the first time, Mr. Legault was ahead in the “best premier” ratings, with 25 per cent. Both Mr. Charest and Ms. Marois were at 23 per cent – a decline of three and two percentage points, respectively.
Slicing into the results makes it look even worse for Mr. Charest. Among francophone voters, the key demographic in virtually all swing ridings that might change hands, the PQ has 39 per cent, the CAQ 26 per cent, and the Liberals only 21 per cent.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le4483717/ |
It seems to me that the CAQ is close to the tipping point already -- if this poll is accurate, and if the undecided do split as expected by the pollsters. |
|
|
|
|
Bugs
Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 1942
votes: 5
|
| Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:07 am Post subject: |
|
|
The reactions to the first debate are coming in. This is from Macleans Magazine.
| Quote: | Quebec election: Round one to Charest
In an interview on Saturday, Jean Charest likened the debates to a zero-sum game. “We’re experienced politicians, knock-outs are rare,” he told La Presse’s Denis Lessard. It was a way, perhaps, of cooling expectations on the part of restive Liberals across the province—the same ones who, for nearly a decade, have watched their leader falter only to punch his way back thanks to his debating chops and eye for the jugular. It’s not to say he won’t do as much—he said in the same interview that he’s scheduled a ministers’ meeting for the day after the election—but that it won’t be a plodding two-hour display of cross-talk and dueling talking points that a very unpopular premier will win himself back into voters’ good graces.
In fact, Charest was being a bit modest. Having to defend a nine-year mandate, the latter three of which have been under a perpetual cloud, against two people (Pauline Marois and François Legault) who have at least the same chance of forming the next government as he, was less zero-sum than potential disaster. And while his prophecy came true Sunday night during the Radio-Canada/Télé-Québec debate—there really wasn’t a knock-out—if there has to be winners (though not necessarily losers) in these things, then I’d say Charest came out best. Here’s why:
1. He dominated camera time. This is no surprise, given he’s the target, but most of his time on camera was spent on the offensive. When he spoke of his record, it was not from a defensive position. He bragged about job numbers (enviable compared to non oil-producing provinces) and about his economic record. He also got off his pre-planned soundbites. To Legault, he said, “You were a sovereignist for 40 years, and you changed your mind for four seconds.” To Marois and Legault: “I find it interesting, seeing two sovereignists fight with each other.”
2. He dodged the corruption file with aplomb. A quarter of the debate was devoted to integrity and corruption, a hot-button issue and an area in which, for obvious reasons, Charest is vulnerable. Yet he dodged the most potentially bruising allegations—specifically, the case of disgraced former cabinet minister Tony Tomassi and illegal campaign financing—and even went on the attack. He employed one talking point to accuse the PQ of corruption, citing the Moisan report into party financing. It was a cheeky attack, if only because the 2006 report singles out Charest’s own former minister, Nathalie Normandeau. Of course, that’s Charest’s charm — he’s a master of half-true soundbites. “We have a tough law against prête-noms,” he said at one point, referring to companies that donate money to political parties through their employees. What he forgot to mention, of course, is that the Liberal Party was caught doing just that.
3. He put Marois and Legault in the same boat Charest is losing, or at least risks losing, Anglo and Allophone voters to Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec. Short of dancing naked in the street with it spray-painted on his chest, Legault has done everything to convince people he wants nothing to do with a referendum. Nevertheless, Charest constantly reminded viewers of Legault’s PQ past, particularly as one of the “impatient” types who once wanted Quebec sovereignty tomorrow morning, if not before. Somehow he’s kept the idea of “Legault-as-a-cryto-sovereignist” alive.
4. He didn’t get mad, he got fierce. He was nervous to start, but quickly fell into familiar Charest mode: the one in which he attacks his opponent as though the latter had just publicly insulted a family member.
As dire as things look for Charest, there remains a large number of undecided voters. With her frequent name-dropping of the cause of sovereignty—but without committing to a referendum—Marois played well to her entrenched base as well as those soft nationalist who like the dream, but couldn’t be bothered to do anything about it. Legault didn’t have quite the proselytising effect he needed to pick up péquiste and weary Liberal votes. Françoise David, who used the occasion to commit the red square to lapel jewellery, was a joy to watch, but a reminder of how little effect Quebec Solidaire has outside the Island of Montreal.
Charest wasn’t transformative—he never has been—and he might well take a beating in one or more of the next three debates during the next three nights. The one-on-one format lends more to a knockout, and he’ll have a tougher time skirting questions. But throughout the slog of the four-person debate, Charest did his best to ensure he’s at least worth another look. That in itself is impressive.
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/0.....o-charest/
|
Reporters have an indifferent record in picking the winners of political debates ... so be warned. The general public may not react as the scribes do. We shall see ... |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2012 3:16 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Charest looked like a veteran politician;
However if the population is tired of him, no amount of picking his spots and looking seasoned and smart is going to save him.
The thing that was interesting is that neither Pauline Marois and François Legault looked like Premiers up there.
Legault looked better then Marois, however Quebec has some pretty terrible options. |
|
|
|
|
mrsocko
Joined: 29 Oct 2006
Posts: 2453
votes: 8
Location: Southwestern Ontario
|
| Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2012 5:57 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Chantal Hebert says the iberals are going the way of the DODO(fed Libs). I'd rather the PQ go the way of the Bloc. I can see the CAQ winning as they are Quebecers seem tired of the same old crap. |
|
|
|
|
Bugs
Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 1942
votes: 5
|
| Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 6:23 am Post subject: |
|
|
| mrsocko wrote: | | Chantal Hebert says the iberals are going the way of the DODO(fed Libs). I'd rather the PQ go the way of the Bloc. I can see the CAQ winning as they are Quebecers seem tired of the same old crap. |
Maybe Chantal has spoken too soon.
| Quote: | In debate, Charest takes a hatchet to Legault's image and PQ past
Performing in his last television debate this election year, Liberal Leader Jean Charest appeared calm and focused as he took it to François Legault, calling into question the CAQ Leader’s sincerity and credibility.
Mr. Charest told viewers that Mr. Legault, a onetime Parti Québécois cabinet minister, lacked the political convictions to become premier of Quebec. In a sweeping attack on both Mr. Legault’s newfound faith in Canadian unity and the billions in Coalition Avenir Quebec campaign promises, Mr. Charest struck a blow to his rival’s leadership abilities.
“A sovereigntist who says he’s going to vote “no” in a referendum is like a right-winger who says he’s going to spend $4-billion [if elected],” Mr. Charest said. “Who are you going to send to Ottawa to negotiate on Quebec’s behalf, a federalist or a sovereigtist? ... The man or woman who wants to become premier of Quebec must have convictions on this issue.”
Lacking in experience and without the debating skills of his opponent, Mr. Legault insisted he had at heart the future of the Quebec nation.
“All of the candidates of the Coalition know we will never promote sovereignty,” he said. “Never. It’s very clear. Never. It’s been 30 years that we are divided in Quebec. What we need is a nationalist government in the tradition of [the late Liberal premier] Jean Lesage. One who protects our culture and identity while promoting our economy. Your government is federalist at all cost.”
This was an important test for Mr. Charest, who needed to stop support for the Liberal party bleeding to the CAQ, especially after appearing too aggressive in Monday’s duel with PQ Leader Pauline Marois.
“You are so unreliable that you are doing exactly the opposite of what you said you would do,” Mr. Charest said in accusing the CAQ Leader of laying unfounded allegations against former Liberal ministers.
Mr. Charest, however, faced dissent inside his own ranks after a senior party fundraiser, Jean-Paul Boily, called on Liberals to vote for the CAQ to stop the separatist PQ from taking power.
Mr. Boily said that Liberals need to vote strategically, convinced that Mr. Charest was headed for certain defeat in the Sept. 4 election.
“If we continue to blindly follow our old allegiances, we will be in for a terrible surprise. We will get a PQ majority government, we will be back in our old constitutional quarrels, and we will be set back 30 years,” Mr. Boily said in an interview.
It was a huge setback for the Liberal Party and Mr. Charest used his debate with Mr. Legault to reassert his leadership credentials and reassure Liberal supporters.
[....]
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le4492614/ |
The early poll results indicate that Charest has been successful.
| Quote: |
The dynamics of the Quebec election appear to have shifted dramatically in the last few days as a new poll shows a surge in Liberal support following the televised leaders’ debate this past weekend.
A Forum Research poll, conducted exclusively for the National Post, reveals a sudden turnaround in voters’ intentions, which had, in previous surveys, given the edge to the Parti Québécois.
Of 1,602 telephone respondents surveyed, more than one-third of voters said they would vote for the Liberals, pushing Jean Charest’s party to 35%, more than four points higher than polls had suggested the Liberals enjoyed as recently as last week.
http://news.nationalpost.com/2.....bate-poll/ |
The same poll puts the PQ at 29%, with the CAQ lagging, at 24%. The poll was taken Monday night, and does not show whatever changes that might have resulted from the later one-on-one debates.
Comments? |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 8:34 am Post subject: |
|
|
| I have to wonder how many former LPQ voters who have opted for CAQ or PQ in recent polls may ultimately hold their nose and vote Liberal out of an utter lack of options? |
|
|
|
|
Bugs
Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 1942
votes: 5
|
| Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:46 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| cosmostein wrote: | | I have to wonder how many former LPQ voters who have opted for CAQ or PQ in recent polls may ultimately hold their nose and vote Liberal out of an utter lack of options? |
I think there's going to be quite a bit of nose-pinching in this election, but the vote split looks like it's going to hold up ... so far, at least. I have a feeling that the best we can hope for is that the Liberals will be swept from power so completely that the CAQ forms the government. But how likely is that?
Already, the opening moves on the Federal side seem to be taking place. Tom Flanagan has a piece in the Globe suggesting that all the provinces should handle their own EI. In effect. in his thinking, it would eliminate another big transfer payment that goes to Quebec and other provinces from more productive areas of the country.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le4497760/
Marois may be helping the whole country to decentralize if she isn't careful. |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:56 pm Post subject: |
|
|
The CAQ doesnt seem to have much interest in working with either party in the context of a coalition or even being cooperative,
With that said, I think a LPQ/CAQ situation would be far more likely then a PQ/CAQ situation.
It will also be interesting to see how David's performance at the debate and Jacques Parizeau's endorsement of Jean-Martin Aussant's Option nationale over his own former party the PQ may harm the PQ's momentum in the days leading to the election.
It will be a nail biter. |
|
|
|
|
Bugs
Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 1942
votes: 5
|
| Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 8:19 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Marois acting like she's confident of a minority but wants more ...
| Quote: | Marois pushes for PQ majority, warns against Liberal-CAQ coalition
Pauline Marois is urging voters to give her Parti Québécois a majority government in the Sept. 4 election, warning a coalition of Liberals and Coalition Avenir Quebec will cause social unrest.
The PQ leader warned that unless she wins a majority, the student strike over tuition fee hikes will remain unsettled, mining companies will pay less royalties, there will be no new language law, and little improvement for daycare services or homecare for the elderly. Sovereignty would also have to take a backseat in the event of a PQ minority.
“What we are saying is that in order to do this, it will take a Parti Québécois majority government,” Ms. Marois said. “A minority government would find itself up against a coalition of people who would prevent us from adopting bold progressive policies.”
[....]
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le4502764/
|
Perhaps this is why ...
| Quote: |
PQ in minority territory as CAQ surges among francophones: poll
The Parti Québécois is now heading for a minority government on Sept. 4, according to the latest Quebec election poll.
The upstart Coalition Avenir Québec is the only party with forward momentum in the race after leapfrogging over the third-placed Quebec Liberal Party. In particular, the CAQ is growing among the francophone electorate, which has a large influence in a majority of the province’s riding.
According to CROP, the PQ has the support of 33 per cent of electors, compared to the CAQ at 28 per cent and the Liberals at 26 per cent. Québec Solidaire, a sovereigntist, left-wing party, remained stable at 7 per cent among voters.
Among francophone voters, the PQ is in the lead at 36 per cent support, while the CAQ are at 30 per cent and Liberals are at 19 per cent.
The CROP poll was released in Tuesday’s edition of La Presse. It was conducted between August 24 and 26, meaning that the phone calls to 1,002 respondents started two days after the end of four straight days of debates between the major party leaders, providing for a margin of error of 3.1-per cent.
The polls suggests the election of a PQ minority at this point, although there remains a full week before the vote. The numbers are particularly dramatic for Liberal Leader Jean Charest, who was hoping for a fourth mandate when he called the summer election.
“The PQ is on the razor’s edge, but it has managed to maintain its support. [CAQ Leader François] Legault is on the rise, but will it continue or die down, that is the question,” CROP pollster Youri Rivest told the Montreal newspaper. http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le4504736/
|
It's a week away. They claim that's a long time, in politics.
Comments? |
|
|
|
|
Bugs
Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 1942
votes: 5
|
| Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:50 am Post subject: |
|
|
There's more ... the tide seems to be running in the PQ's direction.
Better the secessionists than the amateurs, in the end ... just so long as it isn't the crooks.
| Quote: | Latest projection puts PQ on track for slim majority
Despite a few hiccups in the last weeks of the campaign and gains by François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec, Pauline Marois and the Parti Québécois are on track for a slim majority government heading toward the Sept. 4 provincial election.
According to the seat projection for the Globe, the Parti Québécois would have the support of 34.1 per cent of Quebeckers if an election were held today, giving them 66 seats. That is just over the bar of 63 seats needed to form a majority government.
The PQ is trailed by the Liberals with 28.5 per cent and the CAQ at 25.8 per cent support. With these vote tallies, the Liberals would likely win 32 seats and the CAQ 25.
Québec Solidaire, with 6.7 per cent support, is projected to win two seats. Option Nationale, with 2.1 per cent, and the provincial Greens, with 1.8 per cent, are not expected to win any seats.
... [T]he Liberals have been in freefall. They have slipped more than four points and 15 seats. The PQ has held relatively steady, but due to the drop of the Liberals, are currently projected to win eight more seats than they were two weeks ago. The CAQ has made the biggest gain in popular support, up 3.1 points and seven seats.
The most recent polls have put the CAQ narrowly ahead of the Liberals.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le4507162/ |
The article has other interesting details about where the support is coming from.
It's beginning to look like another pain-in-the-ass chapters begins. |
|
|
|
|
RCO
Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 1896
votes: 2
Location: Ontario
|
| Posted: Sun Sep 02, 2012 10:28 am Post subject: |
|
|
( looking like some sort of PQ victory , charest in some serious trouble this election . CAQ could hold the balance of power ? )
Parti Quebecois one point away from majority, poll shows
Updated
10:55 am, September 2nd, 2012
10:33 am, September 2nd, 2012
Credits: QMI AGENCY/MAXIME DELAND
GIUSEPPE VALIANTE | QMI AGENCY
MONTREAL - With two days until Quebec's provincial election, the separatist Parti Quebecois remained poised to win a majority government, according to an exclusive Leger Marketing poll conducted for QMI Agency.
The last QMI Agency poll before Quebecers vote on Sept. 4 placed the PQ in the lead at 33%, with the CAQ in second at 28% and the Liberals at 27%.
The percentages for all three major parties remained unchanged since the last Leger poll, which was published on Aug. 24.
Jean-Marc Leger, president of Leger Marketing, told QMI Agency PQ Leader Pauline Marois is statistically one point away from gaining enough of the popular vote to win a majority government.
However, Leger said he is not ready to predict even a minority win for the PQ - not with 28% of respondents saying they could change their mind come election day. As well, 6% of respondents either refused to answer the survey or said they still didn't know who they would vote for.
Moreover, the right-of-centre and economic nationalist CAQ vote is fickle, according to the poll.
Of those who said they would vote CAQ, 37% said they could change their mind, compared with 15% for the PQ and 27% for the Liberals. Additionally, 31% of respondents who supported the CAQ said their second choice would be the Liberals, compared with 22% who said they would choose the PQ second.
Leger said the results are heavily riding on turnout - which he expects to be high, at around 70%, compared with 57% during the 2008 provincial election.
And higher turnouts are often bad news for incumbent parties, "because it means voters are looking for change," Leger said.
If interest in the election campaign is an indicator, then turnout will be high.
The poll found 90% of respondents said they have taken an interest in the election campaign, with 43% responding they have taken a "big interest." Only 1% of respondents said they didn't plan to vote.
Leger polled 1,856 Quebecers over 18 years old between August 29-31. Respondents came from Leger's Internet panel database of 185,000 people in Quebec. Results are considered to have a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/s.....03339.html |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 8:45 am Post subject: |
|
|
If there is a PQ minority they will be back at the polls within a year;
However its looking like the Province will elect a PQ majority |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 1:04 pm Post subject: |
|
|
EKOS has the LPQ @ 23.2 whereas QS is @ 10.7
https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/242770964516057089
Its been argued for a while that EKOS methodology always over-polls on the left, and the 2011 election pretty well established that Graves methodology was flawed.
Now it should be interesting to see if EKOS who appears to be the outer with the LPQ and QS number have corrected their system, or if we will see the same flawed result. |
|
|
|
|
Bugs
Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 1942
votes: 5
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 8:27 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Well, the three-way split had the effect of giving separatism one more kick at the can.
Why did Charest lose? Is it that the biggest number of Quebecois are eager to gain independence? Or are they just turned off by Charest? Or sympathetic to the students?
Mme. Marois expects to phone Mr Harper tomorrow, to discuss arrangements for the transfer of powers to Quebec. It sounds like a set-up for a comedy routine, if you ask me. If I were Harper, I'd have Ron James set up at the other end of the phone. |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Page 2 of 3
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum
|
2012 Quebec Provincial Election |
|
phpBBCopyright 2001, 2005 phpBB |
|
