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 Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2012 8:27 am Post subject: 2012 Quebec Provincial Election |
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The writ has formally dropped;
The 40th Quebec General Election will take place September 4, 2012.
Last edited by cosmostein on Wed Aug 01, 2012 4:01 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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| Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2012 8:32 am Post subject: |
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The first poll leading into the campaign looks a lot like the last poll from June
PQ - 33
LPQ - 31
CAQ - 21
http://www.thestar.com/news/ca.....s-liberals
It appears QS, VPQ, and ON are all polling in single digits as well. |
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| Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 9:25 am Post subject: |
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| Bugs wrote: | The election itself will tell a lot. Cosmo is right, in three way races the winner may only have a third of the vote. But this could as easily benefit the PQ
Will the obvious PQ strategy -- credit them for being frank -- energize voters? Or turn voters off?
Can a federalist social democratic party squeeze out a separatist social democratic party, and get power? Or will they split the social democratic vote and let Charest triumph again? (Personally, I like his chances ...)
And what does this political largesse mean ay a time when all the economic omens suggest that a stern financial discipline is what will be required -- never a quebecois strong point. |
It could benefit the PQ;
It really depends where their support comes from,
The Liberals hardly set the world on fire during the 2008 election securing 200,000 or so more votes then the PQ and still winning a majority.
The problems the PQ are facing are two fold;
1) They are likely to lose at least two seats L'Assomption (which François Legault will win) and likely Gouin (which QS's Françoise David will likely win) so they need to do battle with the Liberals to take their seats.
Trouble is that CAQ is technically a sovereigntist party however Legault has said that Quebec needs to take a 10 year break from that discussion to fix the economy first, which is a sentiment many Quebecois share.
Then you have QS and ON both screaming to separate.
2) There is a quiet movement within the PQ that feels that Gilles Duceppe (even at 65) is the only viable leader to lead the PQ to victory and win a debate on sovereignty.
The only way that Pauline Marois gets the boot is if she blows this election and ultimately clears a path wide open for Duceppe to lead the PQ moving forward. |
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| Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 9:48 am Post subject: |
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| The poll also shows federal numbers. The NDP are at 34%, which is 8 points lower then last May. Mulcair was at 50% after he became leader. |
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| Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:54 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | The poll also shows federal numbers. The NDP are at 34%, which is 8 points lower then last May. Mulcair was at 50% after he became leader. |
All three federalist parties have missed the boat;
While this rarely gets reported outside of Quebec, Daniel Paillé has been pretty darn effective over the last few months giving some fiery speeches directed at the Conservatives Federally, and the Liberals Provincially.
He has also mobilized the Bloc/PQ legions very effectively in terms of manpower and fundraising leading into this Provincial Election.
While he is no Duceppe, he has slowly started to rebuild the party.
With the BQ polling in the mid 20's and the NDP not in the now to mid-40's the NDP loses seats in Eastern Quebec and Côte-Nord and Saguenay to the BQ, they lose seats in Quebec City to the CPC, and seats on the island to the LPC.
In hindsight;
I called this one wrong.
The federal NDP should have paid its respects to the rest of Canada and hoped Quebec got in line rather then selecting a leader who may or may not appeal to Quebec enough to even maintain 40+ seats at the expense of being toxic west of Quebec.
It should have Brian Topp a Toronto insider running in a Quebec riding largely for show rather then an NDP come lately who is losing ground to a party who doesnt even have their leader in the Commons.
If the PQ does well in the East, it stands to benefit the BQ federally. |
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| Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:05 pm Post subject: |
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| While I don't like the idea of a socialist win I will say that it would be quite impressive that we could have a fourth female provincial premier, third elected, if Marios wins. Big change in less than two years. |
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Bugs
Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 1942
  
votes: 5
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| Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 4:10 pm Post subject: |
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Day two or three of the campaign, and the PQ are off to a running start.
Can someone pull out a calculator, and start tallying the promises?
Charest's Liberals opened the bidding, promising 250,000 new jobs by 2017 -- that'd be creating jobs at the rate of 1000 jobs a week ... for five years. Are you kidding me? What would that cost?
Not to be outdone, the Coalition Avenir Québec has introduced a bill that makes corruption illegal. This leaves me a little breathless ... a statement wrapped in such dewy innocence that it proclaims its own not-ready-for-prime-time-ness ... and, of course, would cost nothing.
So, the PQ goes with a gusto ... essentially denying the concept of the balanced budget.
| Quote: | Parti Quebecois promises to scrap Jean Charest’s tuition hike plan if elected
After Quebec students took to the streets in response to Premier Jean Charest’s election call for their biggest protests in weeks, Parti Quebecois leader Pauline Marois promised to eliminate her Liberal rival’s controversial tuition hikes.
On the first full day of the Quebec election campaign Marois promised to drop the tuition hikes, cancel the emergency protest law bill 78 and call for a summit on university funding within 100 days of being elected on September 4.
She notably made the promises while accompanied by Leo Bureau-Blouin, a student leader whose face has become synonymous with the tuition protests. Bureau-Blouin is running for the PQ in a Laval riding.
http://news.nationalpost.com/2.....f-elected/ |
The accompanying pictures shows Marios standing (couger-like) besides what surely must be the callowest creature east of the Ottawa River, a 'student leader' content to be absorbed into the political apparatus ... Marois has her claws retracted, she purrs ... the student leader stares off into the distance, slack-jawed and limp, like a puppet.
It occurs to me ... we are in a very strange period. It's as if it's just before the Titanic hit the iceberg ...
Am I alone in thinking that the economic future is foreboding? Sorry, but it just feels that six years of super-low interest rates is too good to be true. Canada is puttering along, with what would normally be a mediocre growth rate ... but it leads the G-8 ... The US has goosed the world economy two or three times now, but it keeps lapsing back into 'recession' ... This colours my perceptions. It's hard to ignore that almost visceral feeling that the prudent soul would begin preparing for a rainy day.
But when it comes to political theatre, who can suspend disbelief better than les quebecois?
Comments? |
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RCO
Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 1896
votes: 2
Location: Ontario
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| Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2012 6:11 pm Post subject: |
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| its really an unpredicatble election , its odd he called it during the middle of an extremly hot summer . its very doubtful many quebecers are going to be paying attention until its almost over in first week of september . i wouldn't even want to make a prediction at this point . i'm really tired of charest but PQ be worse i guess . it be interesting to see what new party does and if it wins many seats . |
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Bugs
Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 1942
votes: 5
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| Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 10:48 pm Post subject: |
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| RCO wrote: | | its really an unpredicatble election , its odd he called it during the middle of an extremly hot summer . its very doubtful many quebecers are going to be paying attention until its almost over in first week of september . i wouldn't even want to make a prediction at this point . i'm really tired of charest but PQ be worse i guess . it be interesting to see what new party does and if it wins many seats . |
I felt that way when this started too, but I am coming around to a different view.
After all, you have the picture of three-way races that anybody could win. But I wonder. The PQ got off with a big., showy start by brandishing the student movement in Quebec as a weapon ... and quickly backed down. For now, they have a 'truce' on the issue ... the PQ doesn't like it being discussed.
I wonder how many pulses quickened when Marois announced what the PQs Canada Policy would be -- and trotted out bits of political blackmail to squeeze Ottawa ....
Let's imagine a Quebecois Charest supporter who now is a little disgusted with the Liberaux. Is he going to the militant-again PQ? But now many of these people are entering retirement. Do they want all that aggravation again? A lot don't.
But where to go? The other parties are first time efforts by amateurs. They can win some seats, but their power will come when they back one or another of the mainstream pair ...
So, where does our disgruntled Liberal go? Probably many have a pretty good chance of voting Liberal again.
I like Charest's chances. |
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RCO
Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 1896
votes: 2
Location: Ontario
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| Posted: Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:57 am Post subject: |
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CAQ support surging as Quebec Liberals, PQ slide: Poll
Graeme Hamilton | Aug 9, 2012 6:01 AM ET | Last Updated: Aug 9, 2012 8:59 AM ET
More from Graeme Hamilton | @grayhamilton
Allen McInnis/Postmedia News
François Legault, right, introduces Jacques Duchesneau as the Coalition Avenir Quebec candidate for the riding of Sainte-Jerome Sunday. CAQ support has seen a major uptick since Duchesneau joined the party's roster.
MONTREAL — A new poll suggests the arrival of anti-corruption crusader Jacques Duchesneau as a candidate for the Coalition Avenir Québec has given the party a major boost in voter support.
The Forum Poll conducted Monday for the National Post shows the Parti Québécois still ahead, but François Legault’s CAQ has gained 10 percentage points since the election was called last week. The CAQ dominated the early campaign with news that Mr. Duchesneau, who until last fall was head of a government anti-collusion task force, would run for the party.
The PQ under Pauline Marois stands at 34%, down from 39% when the election was called on Aug. 1. Jean Charest’s incumbent Liberals are second at 32%, down from 38%. The CAQ jumped to 24% from 14%. Québec Solidaire gained two points to 6% while the Greens remained constant at 3%.
Related
'I would vote No' in a referendum: CAQ's Legault completes dramatic swing away from separatism
Montreal student protest in midst of Quebec election broken up by riot police
Graeme Hamilton: Jean Charest hangs his re-election hopes on Quebec’s ‘silent majority’
“It’s clear that François Legault has changed the game with his wooing of Jacques Duchesneau, and for him to have made this much progress in a week speaks well for his prospects in a four-week-campaign,” Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, said in a statement.
The firm’s projections show the separatist PQ in position to win 65 seats and capture a slim majority in the 125-seat National Assembly. The Liberals would be reduced to 46 seats, CAQ would win 13 and the leftist Québec Solidaire one.
The CAQ enjoys strong support in the Quebec City region, where the party leads the Liberals and PQ. Provincially, it attracted the support of 27% of francophone respondents, behind the PQ at 39% but ahead of the Liberals at 26%. Non-francophone voters continue to side overwhelmingly with the Liberals, who received 71% of their support, compared with 10% for the CAQ and 6% for the PQ.
Anglophones … should perhaps, in order to send a message to the Liberals, consider voting for the CAQ, [but] only in areas where there is no danger of splitting the vote and electing the PQAnglophones have remained suspicious of Mr. Legault, a former PQ minister who has promised to shelve talk of sovereignty. On Wednesday, however, there was a sign that all is not lost for the party among anglophone voters, who are concentrated on the island of Montreal.
Robert Libman, the former leader of the Equality Party, an English-rights party that won four seats from the Liberals in 1989, encouraged anglos to give the CAQ a look.
“Anglophones … should perhaps, in order to send a message to the Liberals, consider voting for the CAQ,” Mr. Libman told the Canadian Press, “[but] only in areas where there is no danger of splitting the vote and electing the PQ.”
The poll shows Mr. Charest is still struggling to gain the trust of voters, 63% of whom disapprove of the job he is doing as Premier. Thirty percent of respondents said they approved. Ms. Marois had an approval rating of 35%, compared with 53% who disapproved.
Mr. Legault was the only major party leader without a negative approval rating: 39% of respondents said they approved of his performance (up from 30% a week earlier) and 39% said they disapproved.
Mr. Charest has sought to frame the Sept. 4 election as an opportunity to settle the province’s long-running student protests over tuition fees, which led to street marches and blockaded classes last spring. His government’s tough stand against the students was supported by 39% of respondents, the poll found. The students enjoyed the support of 34%, while 25% said they support neither side.
The results are based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,641 voting-age Quebec residents. Results drawn from the total sample are considered accurate within 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
http://news.nationalpost.com/2.....lide-poll/ |
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| Posted: Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:04 am Post subject: |
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I have to admit, I was pretty impressed the CAQ was able to land Jacques Duchesneau.
Whats also interesting is that Saint-Jérôme (Formally the Prevost riding) that Duchesneau is running in and L'Assomption which Legault is running in are both PQ ridings currently both of which opted for an ADQ candidate during the 2007 election.
The PQ is being out "rock stared" |
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Bugs
Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 1942
votes: 5
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| Posted: Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:38 pm Post subject: |
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I had no idea that the CAQ had such star-power ... or that the sentiment against Charest was as high as 70% ...
This is from an interesting conversation between John Ibbotson, of the G&M, and André Pratte of La Presse ... Ibbotson asks André to explain to him what is happening in Quebec.
| Quote: | ... There are both short-term and long-term factors at play into what seems to be a CAQ surge in the early stages of the campaign.
One long-term factor: Many Quebeckers are tired of the Liberal-PQ bipolar system, which has dominated Quebec politics for 40 years. They want real change, not only a change from the Liberals to the Péquistes.
Another long-term issue: Many voters are not interested any more in the debate on the political future of the province. It’s not that people don’t have views for or against separation. It’s just that they know the thing will not be solved, if it can be solved, in the foreseeable future.
Therefore, why not have a government that puts all its energy in attacking more immediate problems, for instance, the indecent delays before getting an appointment with a doctor or care in an emergency ward?
Short-term: the CAQ has dominated the first week of the campaign, by recruiting star candidates (including the former Montreal police chief and admired anti-corruption crusader Jacques Duchesneau). Also, the CAQ has made very concrete promises, for instance guaranteeing by law that parents with children under six will have a right to five days of parental leave each year.
Seventy per cent of Quebeckers want Jean Charest’s Liberals out. For them, the issue of this campaign is: which party – the PQ or the CAQ – can best take the Liberals’ place. If the CAQ continues to run a professional and popular campaign, they could create a big surprise.
But there are still four weeks remaining, including four leader’s debates. So the election results are more unpredictable than ever.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le4471476/
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It means that separatism is fading from the live political alternatives for Quebec!
Comments? |
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| Posted: Thu Aug 09, 2012 5:26 pm Post subject: |
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An excellent find,
I tend to agree.
Most Quebecois are more concerned with the Economy, Healthcare, and Taxes then they are with declaring independence at this point.
The problem historically has been you either vote for the Liberals are you opt for a referendum.
Legault and the CAQ offer a very interesting third option, a mix of PQ, LPQ, and ADQ folks who can agree on the fact that the economy is the priority and that now is not the time to be discussing a referendum.
I think Quebecois want the Liberals out and dont really want the PQ.
The CAQ offers an interesting alternative either as a party to form government, or a partner to the LPQ within a government. |
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Bugs
Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 1942
votes: 5
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| Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 2:24 pm Post subject: |
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It now appears that the CAQ may actually be the frontrunner. Charest has focused his most recent attacks on them, and their leader.
| Quote: | Liberals’ Charest shifts focus of Quebec election attacks to CAQ
Jean Charest is making third-party leader François Legault his primary target, apparently calculating that his re-election depends on preventing Mr. Legault’s upstart party from eating into his support.
Though he once hoped that Mr. Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec would take votes from the Parti Québécois’s Pauline Marois, the Liberal Leader is now devoting much of his rhetoric to keeping Mr. Legault back. He spent the lion’s share of his Tuesday morning press conference blasting Mr. Legault as “unreliable.”
The opening for his attacks was Mr. Legault’s comments Monday that Quebec youths had to stop dreaming of the “easy life” to keep up with hard-working students in Asian countries whose parents “have to stop them from studying at night because it’s practically making them sick.”
Mr. Charest shot back that Mr. Legault has a habit of basing his policies on “prejudices,” and is also falsely accusing young Quebeckers of laziness. “Don’t come and tell me Quebeckers and young Quebeckers aren’t hard-working,” Mr. Charest said.
In recent days, Mr. Charest has progressively stepped up his attacks on the CAQ leader, to the point that by Tuesday’s press conference in Quebec City, he barely mentioned the PQ’s Ms. Marois. He pegged Mr. Legault as an unreliable flip-flopper, a leader who keeps changing his position and disagreeing with CAQ candidates like high-profile doctor Gaétan Barrette.
“Now he’s got a new position on private health care. Remember, Mr. Legault was against private health care. Now he’s for a pilot project. Dr. Barrette is against the pilot project, and Dr. Barrette is for private health care. The day’s not over yet, either,” he said. “Conclusion: François Legault is not reliable.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le4480416/ |
The article includes other interesting observations about the changing mood in Quebec. It says that Mme Marois' PQ leads in public opinion polls, so Charest must be figuring that the Liberals are losing more votes to the third party than the PQ. Also, the PQ candidate appears to be leading Mr Charest in his own riding. |
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2012 Quebec Provincial Election |
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