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RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Jan 15, 2010 8:18 am    Post subject: Jane Taber shows her true colours then changes her mind Reply with quote

( i found this all really interesting on thursday morning she came out with this article that basically said the sky was falling for the conservatives and everything coming to an end etc , then by 11:30 she came out with a second article that mentioned some of the finer details to this ekos poll such as fact conservative numbers had actually rebounded by end of polling period and were at 34 % by then and liberals only at 26 % an 8 point gap , it turns out in this poll they were only tied when averaged out and only actaully tied for a couple days during the worst coverage of prorogation )

Thursday, January 14, 2010 8:36 AM

Conservatives on 'razor’s edge of losing government'
Jane Taber

1. A breathtaking shift. Stephen Harper’s Conservatives would lose 33 seats if an election were held today and only maintain a tenuous hold on minority government, according to a new EKOS poll.

“From comfortable majority and kudos in October to the razor’s edge of losing government altogether,” says pollster Frank Graves, whose new survey finds that Canadians simply don’t like the Parliamentary shutdown.

“Clearly it has a significant impact. It has become a proxy and a catalyst for a whole bunch of broader frustrations and anxieties that the public are feeling about the government.”

Indeed, the EKOS data is consistent with two polls released yesterday showing the Tories and Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals effectively tied for support and that Canadians are displeased with Mr. Harper’s decision to prorogue Parliament.

Mr. Graves’s poll of 3,730 Canadians, conducted between January 6 and January 12, puts the Tories with 30.9 per cent support compared to 29.3 per cent for the Liberals. The NDP are at 15.3 per cent; the Bloc is at 10.2 per cent and the Green Party has 11.9 per cent.

More interesting, however, is Mr. Graves’s seat projections based on the latest numbers.

If an election were held today, he says, the Tories would have only 112 seats compared to the 145 they have now. Last fall, when his polls had the Tories in majority government territory, Mr. Graves had the Harper team winning 177 seats. Now, they would see their biggest losses in Ontario, dropping to 33 from 51seats.

The Liberals, meanwhile, would make gains in Ontario, taking 60 seats from their current 38. Nationally, Mr. Graves has the Ignatieff team winning 107 seats compared to the 77 seats they have now.

His figures suggest the NDP would win 33 seats, down from the 37 they have now. And the Bloc Quebecois would win five more seats, going to 53 from 48 seats.


EKOS poll - January 14, 2009
.

Mr. Graves says the Tory implosion is a result of a predictable “recoil” among voters when parties are seen to be a bit too high and the controversy over the Afghan detainee issue, which has now morphed into an issue of government accountability and trust. He is not sure whether the Liberal attack ads, released last Sunday, have had any effect.

Mr. Graves does, however, see some positives for the Tories in this poll. He says Liberal fortunes haven’t been “jump-started.” His numbers only show the Grits are moving up “ever so gently.”

“This is a Conservative slide rather than a Liberal rise,” he says, arguing the challenge for Mr. Ignatieff now is to seize the public disenchantment over prorogation and start providing reasons to Canadians for voting Liberal. Mr. Graves says the Grits need to shift “public thinking about what is different and better” about them.

2. Prorogation protests go international. The organizers of the anti-prorogation rallies planned for Jan. 23 are now saying there will be rallies in London, England, and New York. There is also the possibility of an anti-prorogation demonstration in Los Angeles.

Jonathan Allan, the spokesperson for the rallies that were inspired by the anti-prorogation Facebook group, is boldly predicting huge turnout. “As we enter the second decade of the 21st century and become exposed to the whims of an unaccountable government, we are legitimately confident that these rallies, including the ones in Ottawa and Toronto, will be among the largest independent political protests in years,” he told The Globe in an email, noting that it’s a non-partisan effort.

“We have rebuked all assistance from opposition parties; this is an entirely grassroots organized event,” he writes. “We, as the citizens of Canada, are demanding that the elected representatives of our Parliament return to work immediately – if not in the House of Commons, at least within the context of the parliamentary inquiry into the government’s complicity in torture and war crimes.”


http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1430715/



Thursday, January 14, 2010 11:55 AM

Can critics capitalize on Stephen Harper's prorogation mistake?
Jane Taber

EKOS pollster Frank Graves is wondering today how pleased the Prime Minister is with the advice he received from his pollsters and strategists who told him: “No problem Mr. Harper, nobody is going to give a hoot.”

Mr. Graves, of course, is referring to the reasoning around the Stephen Harper’s decision to shut down Parliament for five weeks during the Olympic games. It’s a strategy that seems to be backfiring on the government.

“All is quiet over Christmas, nothing is happening, Mr. Harper makes this announcement,” Mr. Graves says. But “the problem is that they didn’t really think through.”

He wonders why no one asked, “if that’s a wrong guess then what happens?”

“And I think the problem is now you can see it has sort of lit the fuse that ignited a whole range of broader frustrations with the government.”

Mr. Graves’s poll today shows the Conservatives now effectively tied with Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals in public opinion – the 10 to 15 point lead enjoyed by the Tories in the fall has evaporated. And the EKOS figures are consistent with two other polls that released yesterday.

One of the problems with the prorogation decision, Mr. Graves says, is the “oscillating” reasons given by the Prime Minister for the shutdown, which have ranged from wanting to recalibrate the agenda to stock-market stability.

Mr. Graves says Canadians know what prorogation is and they saw this move as undemocratic.

However, all is not so bad for the Prime Minister and his team. Mr. Graves’s survey was taken over several days – from Jan. 6 to Jan. 12 – and Tory fortunes were rebounding in the last few days of the poll.

On Jan. 6, the Conservatives were at 28.3 per cent compared to 34 per cent by Jan. 12. Averaged all together, however, the Tories emerge with 30.9 per cent. The Liberals, meanwhile, began on the first day of the poll with 23.6 per cent and ended with 26.6 per cent. Their global total for the poll period was 29.3 per cent.

The EKOS analysis says this suggests “it may be difficult for the opposition to sustain public attention on the issue of prorogation.”

(Editorial cartoon by Brian Gable/The Globe and Mail)


http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1431024/
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Fri Jan 15, 2010 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That is the thing about polls. An election, in point of fact, is NOT being held today.
Mac





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PostPosted: Fri Jan 15, 2010 4:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Let's hope the Tories put their heads together during this break and make the new session shine! By the way... what happened to those Senator appointments which were discussed?

-Mac
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Fri Jan 15, 2010 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I expect a meticulously crafted set of policy, that will appeal very broadly to moderates who hate the Conservative party and would not vote for them anyway.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Jan 15, 2010 5:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mac wrote:
Let's hope the Tories put their heads together during this break and make the new session shine! By the way... what happened to those Senator appointments which were discussed?

-Mac


Someone in these forums made a point that I believe is ultimately true.

Why appoint (and therefore pay) Senators who will not be governing till March in January? The optics are bad.

"Harper appoints cronies to cushy positions with no work to do"

Waiting till the last week of February, and naming the Senators which then lead to Senate Reform legislation has a nice flow to it.

Perhaps appointing a former Canadian Olympian to the Senate to pour on that national pride we will be feeling?
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Jan 15, 2010 5:58 pm    Post subject: Re: Jane Taber shows her true colours then changes her mind Reply with quote

RCO wrote:


On Jan. 6, the Conservatives were at 28.3 per cent compared to 34 per cent by Jan. 12. Averaged all together, however, the Tories emerge with 30.9 per cent. The Liberals, meanwhile, began on the first day of the poll with 23.6 per cent and ended with 26.6 per cent. Their global total for the poll period was 29.3 per cent.

The EKOS analysis says this suggests “it may be difficult for the opposition to sustain public attention on the issue of prorogation.”


And therein lays the problem with trying to make a stump issue out of something most Canadians couldn't spell last month, and really don't understand how it works in the first place.

So simply said;
Had Ekos done a weekly poll which is the way that CBC normally requests them, the poll for this past week would have had the Tories @ 34% with the Liberals @ 26.6%

Which generally means the fallout from Copenhagen, Afghanistan, and Prorogue of Parliament lasted two weeks.

I am not sure if that means that Canadians have warmed to Harper, or they just hate Iggy but either way that stinks for the Liberals.
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Jane Taber shows her true colours then changes her mind

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