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When will the government fall?
Sept-Oct 06
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Oct-Nov 06
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Nov-Dec 06
8%
 8%  [ 3 ]
Jan-Feb 07
5%
 5%  [ 2 ]
Feb-Mar 07
11%
 11%  [ 4 ]
Mar-Apr 07
20%
 20%  [ 7 ]
Apr-May 07
22%
 22%  [ 8 ]
Summer 07
5%
 5%  [ 2 ]
Fall 07
14%
 14%  [ 5 ]
Later than that...
11%
 11%  [ 4 ]
Total Votes : 35

Author Message
Stephen





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 645
Reputation: 72.9
votes: 5
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2006 2:45 pm    Post subject: When's the next federal election? Reply with quote

Will the government fall over softwood lumber this fall? Would the Liberals run an election under Bill Graham? Has the NDP positioned themselves with a wedge on Afghanistan just in case?

When do you predict that Canadians will go to the polls?
Dauphin





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 98
Reputation: 41.7Reputation: 41.7Reputation: 41.7Reputation: 41.7

PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2006 6:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

An election sooner than the spring is improbable. Even when the Liberals have their new leader, they'll want a few months for him/her to fully adjust to the role and properly take the reigns of the party.
Stephen





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 645
Reputation: 72.9
votes: 5
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2006 6:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ah yes... but election timing is not up to the Liberals and the Liberals alone. I think that the NDP is jokeying for position for what they hope to be the ballot box question. The CPC will play chicken on the softwood deal.

The government is likely to make it very difficult for the Liberals to properly manage their ideal election timing.

:D
Griff





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 14
Reputation: 13.2

PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2006 6:41 pm    Post subject: As they should Reply with quote

After all, politics is politics. We aren't in this to be 'nice' to a party that would like to see us starving and half-dead on the side of the road. Keep the boot on the throat.
FF_Canuck





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 3360
Reputation: 73.4
votes: 17
Location: Southern Alberta

PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm calling it for the Fall of '07. The way I see it, we'll see the government fall the moment a wedge issue develops that the Liberals and NDP can fight the Gov't on, that at the same time allows them to stake out different positions from each other. The BQ are likely to vote issue-by-issue until polling is decidedly in their favour.

The NDP obviously has such a position regarding Afstan, but I suspect the Libs don't want to fight an election on this issue, with any leader. The expected Green Plan II, if a confidence issue, will be difficult for any party to oppose, I suspect. Looking ahead to the next budget, I'd fully expect an across the board income tax cut along with smaller targeted cuts from the Tories - again, the NDP has a wedge issue, but the Libs will struggle to find a defendable position that is 'more' centered than the Tories.

By the time we roll around to the fall sitting, the Liberals will have had enough time working on their brand to stake out a variety of positions, and I think it'll be up to the BQ at that point. I think it's gonna be Equalization that does it.

Of course, I don't know jack about these things. Just my two cents.
Joanne TB





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 11
Reputation: 26.4Reputation: 26.4Reputation: 26.4
Location: Southern Ontario

PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem with the fall of 07 is that it would coincide with the Ontario provincial election. Ontario voters tend to be a cranky bunch.
overthesea





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 9
Reputation: 13

PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2006 10:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whenever the election is, I doubt it will be good news for the Liberals and the Bloc. But there are quite convincing arguements for an election that might never come until we reach the time where we have to call a new election. The way that the Harper government has been completely dismantling any opposition to the point where he is running a de facto majority government, and the fact that it will take decades for the Liberals to recover from this mess, especially if anyone but Ignatieff is elected leader, I can see this 'minority' gov't lasting a very long time. It's almost advantageous for the Tories because they can continue to manipulate the opposition against each other to the point where there to busy fighting each other that to organize a competent Opposition, while the Tories can claim that they've be restrained by the minority gov't from passing all those scary right wing secret corporate agenda things that is reality, have already been passed.

I can imagine the a liberal waking up five years from now and asking himself how Canada swung so much the right with only a minority gov't.
Jason





Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 7
Reputation: 13
Location: Vancouver, Canada

PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2006 5:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spring 07 if the Conservatives decide to go for a majority because the Liberals elected a weak leader. Summer 07 if the Liberals "re-invigorate" their base and desperately want to return to power.
PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fall 2007 is my choice but I think if Conservatives want a majority, they should do it sooner than that.
Christian Conservative





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 86
Reputation: 50.8
votes: 2
Location: Southwestern ON

PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I voted above for Mar-Apr 07, but I think I'm going to change that...

My original predictions in Feb. 06 was that this gov. would last until 2008... AFTER the Quebec Provincial election. I'm revising that position too, and I think we'll go to the polls in the Spring of 08, before (or during) the Quebec election.

I think all parties will prefer not to interfere with the Ontario Election of Oct. 2007, as all parties will need all the troops they can muster for the Federal vote in "Battleground Ontario", where the battle for Majority will take place. That being said, the Tories would benefit the most from an election overlap, as they can muster more volunteers better than the Libs, who rely more on paid staffers. (most Libs have a "what's in it for me" attitude, whereas we Tories always have die-hard people who would give their own blood for the cause if it would help)

All that in consideration, I think we'll survive Budget 07 with the second GST cut AND an income tax reduction, along with changes to assist the "Fiscal Imbalance"... thus the Bloc will support us again, stating that "the Budget is good for Quebec, and that's all we care about".

But the Budget willl be a posion pill for the BQ... "darned if they do, and darned if they don't"...
- If they vote against it, Quebecers will punish them for voting against more money for them... and Jean Charest will only end up supporting the Tory cause in the ensuing election.
- If the BQ votes for the Budget, the Tories will be seen by Quebecers as being a better option in Ottawa than the BQ or the Liberals, who will still be tainted with AdScam in La Belle Provance. The Libs will lose more seats to the CPC, including one or two in Montreal. The BQ will lose even more seats because the Tories will be viewed as a strong voice for Quebec in Ottawa... thus negating the need to vote for the seperatists. Look for the BQ to end up with only 20-30 seats, if the Tories do really well, with perhaps even 30+ seats.

Something will then occur that will pull down the House, and we'll go to the polls. If we stay the course we're presently on, we'll get either a strong minority, or we'll hit the magic 155+, and can get down to business for the next 4 years.

Look for the results in the upcoming Quebec by-election to tell the story. If we finish in a strong second place, or against all odds, we win the seat, look to go to the polls earlier. If we pull a weak second, or a close third to the Libs, look for my prediction to stand true.
Joanne TB





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 11
Reputation: 26.4Reputation: 26.4Reputation: 26.4
Location: Southern Ontario

PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"I think all parties will prefer not to interfere with the Ontario Election of Oct. 2007, as all parties will need all the troops they can muster for the Federal vote in "Battleground Ontario", where the battle for Majority will take place."- C.C.

Actually, I'm having second thoughts about coinciding the two election campaigns. Is it legal to canvass for two different elections at the same time? That could save me a lot of walking.

:wink:
george_the_reformer





Joined: 04 Sep 2006
Posts: 8
Reputation: 13
Location: Vancouver

PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I believe the Govt will fall on a budget vote it can be opposed by all three Opp parties for different reasons.

The Liberals want to run on child care as their primary issue, the BQ will want to go before the Libs rebuild their Quebec base and before we can make further inroads. With only four serious Lib Leader candidates, three of them are fluent in French and the likely winner being the Quebecer, the BQ will want to go soon.

A wise Charest would have a fall 06 election but I've never thought Jean was very wise. If the govt fell on the 2nd reading vote and we had an April election, there's time for Quebec to go right after that which would be their normal 4 years. The polls may not look good but the new left wing sep party will really hamper the PQ.

The NDP just plain hates us and believe they can feast more on the Liberal corpse, they are too dumb to realize that the reason that the center left vote that votes Liberal doesn't want to vote socialist. 102 Liberal seats is proof of that.
Craig
Site Admin




Joined: 29 Aug 2006
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votes: 36

PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was thinking about this earlier. It is an interesting dynamic because the Liberals won't want to force an election until their numbers are up in Quebec. And if their numbers are up in Quebec then the Bloc won't want an election. Therefore, it is entirely up to the Conservatives to decide the timing of the election.
palomino_pony





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 539
Reputation: 93.9Reputation: 93.9
votes: 3
Location: Lower Mainland, BC

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 12:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good point. If the next election is to be decided in Quebec, it might just be up to Harper to decide when to call the election, especially if the Liberals and the Bloc are trying to wait until they have built up some support.

I travel a bit for work (Western Canada mostly) and from water cooler talk I have heard, it looks like people are pretty pleased with Harper's performance so far. Most of the comments have been complementary. From the different conversations, I gather that people are supportive of the Conservatives because:

1. They do what they say. Delivering on key elections platforms in the first few months help (eg. GST cut & child care allowance).
2. No flip flops. Even if some don't agree with all of Harper's decisions, people are impressed that he sticks to them and does not govern by opinion polls.
3. No evidence of a hidden agenda. Harper hasn't ate a kitten.

I really think that right now the Conservatives control the timing. Despite the MSM tyring to tell us otherwise, people seem to pleased with the Conservatives. Of course, this could be the calm before the storm. Once the Liberals pick their leader, it could change, but they still need to fund raise and drum up some more support.


Last edited by palomino_pony on Wed Sep 20, 2006 8:56 am; edited 1 time in total
don muntean





Joined: 07 Sep 2006
Posts: 2262
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votes: 8
Location: Saskatchewan

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 2:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mr. Harper is a REAL leader and his CPC shall not be displaced from governance anytime soon - mark my words.

The others party's have nothing to offer Canadians - nothing but headaches.
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