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RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
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Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2009 9:44 am    Post subject: Nanos the most biased pollster ever ? Reply with quote

Don't usually go after pollster in any of my posts but i thing its time we question Nik Nanos , and his numbers . going to try and lay out the facts as best as i can and go thru his numbers as best as i can .


according to nodice listing of polls here is his numbers

in feb 2008 he put out this poll , lib 33 cpc 31 , ndp 19 , bloc 10 , green 8 ( but at the same time according to there list most other polls had the cpc much higher )

and during the pre-election period from then till sep o8 not a single one of his polls had the cpc ahead . even though many others had the cpc leading in most .
he eventually put the cpc ahead when election arrived but then with a week or so left started puting out polls saying the lead had dramatically shrinked and had the liberals as high as 31 % even though nobody else had them that high and liberals only got 26 % of the vote on election day . he also had the liberals way higher in ontario in those polls then they really were .

list of the polls is all on this website
http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/polls.php

and then we have his most recent piece of work released today in the liberal friendly toronto star . http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/606075

he once again has the liberals much higher than what any of the other recent polls have indicated . i just don't like his polls and think there is something fishy about them .
Forward





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2009 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

His polls are there to serve a particular market; the news media. They are overwhelmingly liberally biased so they will take advantage of polls that confirm their wishful thinking.
ezbeatz





Joined: 09 Oct 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2009 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wish I could find that chart I had of nanos polls over the last 4 years. The Conservative poll numbers always jump on election night and the rest of the time they're lower. The Conservative polling numbers looked like a continuous W.
ezbeatz





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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2009 11:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nanos does get the polling right on the money on election night but the rest of the time I seriously doubt it.
ezbeatz





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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2009 11:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The other thing about national polls like the Strategic Counsel and Nanos is that the MOE (margin of error) nationally is low but regionally it's fairly high.

I remember the media were making hay because the last Strategic Counsel poll had the Tories at 10% in Quebec. But the three SC polls before had the Tories at 18%, 17%, and 17%. The Bloc also mysteriously went from 22% in the poll before to 40% in the most recent poll.
RCO





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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2009 11:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ezbeatz wrote:
Nanos does get the polling right on the money on election night but the rest of the time I seriously doubt it.


well he was closer on election night then with his other polls but he still had the conservatives about 3 % lower then what they actually got .
RCO





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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2009 12:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ezbeatz wrote:
I wish I could find that chart I had of nanos polls over the last 4 years. The Conservative poll numbers always jump on election night and the rest of the time they're lower. The Conservative polling numbers looked like a continuous W.



he for whatever reasons always has them very low during there time in government then goes back up during an election . he has them during government period from 2008 till last election much lower than other polling companies , he was trying to claim back then that dion was going to win or that it was possible , which of course wasn't going to be happening anyways .
ezbeatz





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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2009 12:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
ezbeatz wrote:
Nanos does get the polling right on the money on election night but the rest of the time I seriously doubt it.


well he was closer on election night then with his other polls but he still had the conservatives about 3 % lower then what they actually got .


No, Nanos was 0.5% lower than what the Conservatives got. He is very accurate...on election night.
ezbeatz





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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2009 12:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What the Toronto Star didn't tell you about the Nanos poll.

Conservatives up 3% points in Quebec to 19%.
Liberals up 4% to 30% in Western Canada and Conservatives down 3% to 46% in Western Canada.

Somehow, I don't think those numbers will last on election night. The real kicker is the NDP. They're down to 13% nationally. The Liberals might want to force an election but I think the NDP might just keep the government alive for awhile.
RCO





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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2009 12:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ezbeatz wrote:
What the Toronto Star didn't tell you about the Nanos poll.

Conservatives up 3% points in Quebec to 19%.
Liberals up 4% to 30% in Western Canada and Conservatives down 3% to 46% in Western Canada.

Somehow, I don't think those numbers will last on election night. The real kicker is the NDP. They're down to 13% nationally. The Liberals might want to force an election but I think the NDP might just keep the government alive for awhile.


but thats a problem with his polls , he only does western canada as one big block , he does not seperate it into seperate regions like others and his numbers have a very high margin of error , the recent ipsos poll had the cpc doing much better out west than that . nanos has the cpc often as low as possible it appears .

odd he had them higher in quebec . but we have to remember regional margin of error is high so so these polls that have cpc in quebec at 15 % or say 17 % or even a bit lower are all essentaily around the same once margin of error figured in .

i also don't think the ndp wants an election , they'd be crazy to as other polls also have them less then what they got on election night but some were a bit better than nanos , think one had then at 16 % but still lower than election night
ezbeatz





Joined: 09 Oct 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2009 1:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The NDP would probably lose half their seats if they finish with 13-14% on election night. Places like Northern Ontario and parts of Western Canada would look like ripe pickings for the Tories from the Dippers.
Cronus





Joined: 20 Mar 2009
Posts: 33


PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2009 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I doubt that Nik Nanos has a hidden agenda. In 2006, he was highly accurate, while basically all other pollsters overestimated Tory support. In 2008, other pollsters were on the money, and Nanos underestimated Tory support. Does this mean that in 2006 all other polling firms were lying? No. It suggests instead a difference in methodology, or complicating statistical factors.

Polling is an art as much as a science. Some people aren't honest in surveys. Response rates are often abysmal. Cell phone users complicate the picture. Non-responders may differ from survey responders. Undecideds on the phone can break in unexpected ways on election day.
Troy Heibein





Joined: 21 Mar 2009
Posts: 27

Location: Calgary, Alberta, Canada

PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2009 2:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nik Nanos is a businessman more than a pollster. As someone else said, he is there to serve the media and close polls or those with changes are just more interesting and appealing to them.

The most accurate polls on this topic are actually done by NRG out of Winnipeg, Vancouver, and Calgary..


An Index based on Canadian events and public opinion polls:

http://adaugeoindex.blogspot.com/
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 6733
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votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2009 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hard times don't hurt McGuinty, poll finds

May 01, 2009 04:30 AM
Comments on this story (30)
Robert Benzie
Queen's Park Bureau Chief

Ontario's Liberal government is so far weathering the storm over the recession and the harmonized sales tax, a poll released today suggests.

The Nanos Research survey shows that Premier Dalton McGuinty's Liberals enjoy a healthy lead over the Progressive Conservatives, who will choose a new leader next month, and the New Democrats led by newly elected Andrea Horwath.

In the poll of 501 Ontarians conducted April 23 to 25, the Liberals have support of 47 per cent of decided voters, compared with 31 per cent for the Tories, 16 per cent for the New Democrats, and 5 per cent for the Green party.

"In the absence of any opposition, the Liberals are doing well," Nik Nanos, president and CEO of Nanos Research, said yesterday.

"The first step for a government to be in trouble is for there to be a clear counterpoint or alternative to the government. In a way, (McGuinty) is politically coasting on the fact that the New Democrats have a new leader and that the Conservatives currently have no leader," he said.

The survey, accurate to within 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, found 45 per cent of voters believe the Liberals are headed in the right direction with only 34 per cent feeling they're off in the wrong direction and 21 per cent unsure.

McGuinty's performance was rated as average by 46 per cent, good by 29 per cent, very good by 3 per cent with only 8 per cent saying it was poor and an additional 8 per cent saying it was very poor.

When asked who "would make the best premier," 42 per cent of respondents said McGuinty, 15 per cent said interim Tory leader Bob Runciman, who will be succeeded when a leader is chosen June 27, and 9 per cent said Horwath.


http://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/article/627129


look like nanos and the toronto star are back at it again this time trying to give dalton a boost . but lets look at this poll a little more closely .

first off it has an extremly high margin of error , or almost 5 % , which is extremly high for any poll , he only bothered to poll 500 people which is an extremly small sample size which contributed to the high margin of error , 500 voters is far too small a smaple size to get an accurate picture of the ontario electorate .

secondly , he asked a question who would make the best premier but included runciman in ontario pc slot instead of the 4 leadership candidates , he knows full well runicman is not going to be the leader so its silly to include him in that question or the poll altogether .

thirdly , he says the liberals are weathering the storm over the recession and HST yet he didn't even ask a question about the recession or the HST specifically so how is he to know what the average joe though specially of those 2 issues ?
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