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If you could vote in the Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock (John Tory's) byelection who would you vote for?
PC - John Tory
9%
 9%  [ 2 ]
Liberal - Rick Johnson
18%
 18%  [ 4 ]
New Democrat - Lyn Edwards
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Green - Mike Schreiner
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Freedom - Bill Denby
4%
 4%  [ 1 ]
Family Coalition - Jake Pothaar
13%
 13%  [ 3 ]
Libertarian - Paolo Fabrizio
45%
 45%  [ 10 ]
Independent - John Turmel
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Independent - Jason Taylor
9%
 9%  [ 2 ]
Total Votes : 22

Author Message
NorthernRaven





Joined: 10 Feb 2009
Posts: 160
Reputation: 22.8Reputation: 22.8
votes: 2
Location: Ottawa

PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2009 10:46 pm    Post subject: If you could vote in John Tory's Byelection Reply with quote

I've been thinking about it, as I canvassed grudgingly last year for the Ontario PCers, if John Tory was running in my riding there is NO way I would be helping or voting for him.

In my opinion I would vote and canvass for the Liberal if John Tory ran in my riding, unless an actual serious Indpendent contender could win.
ezbeatz





Joined: 09 Oct 2008
Posts: 1140
Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5
votes: 10
Location: Vaughan, ON

PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2009 11:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Crikey, that's a lot of candidates. Somebody should tell them this ain't a Californian recall.
ezbeatz





Joined: 09 Oct 2008
Posts: 1140
Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5
votes: 10
Location: Vaughan, ON

PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2009 11:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock (provincial electoral district)
2007 Election
Progressive Conservative Laurie Scott 24,272 49.9
Liberal Rick Johnson 14,324 29.5
New Democrat Joan Corigan 5,773 11.9
Green Douglas Smith 3,475 7.2
Freedom Bill Denby 391 0.8
Family Coalition Jake Pothaar 364 0.8

2009 Election
Progressive Conservative John Tory
Liberal Rick Johnson
New Democrat Lyn Edwards
Green Mike Schreiner
Freedom Bill Denby
Family Coalition Jake Pothaar
Libertarian Paolo Fabrizio
Independent John Turmel
Independent Jason Taylor

With 9 candidates running this time instead of 6, I'd imagine John Tory would have a more difficult time winning. He will still probably win since it's such a Conservative riding but I believe if he scores substantially less in votes and voter share than Laurie Scott, he'll have a hard time defending how he can remain a serious contender against the Liberals in the next provincial election.

Because it's a by-election on a weekday, voter turn out should be a lot lower. We'll see what happens.


Last edited by ezbeatz on Mon Mar 02, 2009 11:32 pm; edited 1 time in total
ezbeatz





Joined: 09 Oct 2008
Posts: 1140
Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5
votes: 10
Location: Vaughan, ON

PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2009 11:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is fairly old but worth a look.

Quote:
Poll shows Conservatives unhappy with Tory
Posted By Lindsay Post staff
Posted 21 days ago

KAWARTHA LAKES – Concerned Conservatives of Ontario has conducted a poll that shows almost 70 per cent of respondents in the riding of Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock think it was a mistake for local MPP Laurie Scott to relinquish her seat to PC leader John Tory and trigger a byelection in the riding.

The group is now urging Tory to step aside as the PC candidate in the March 5 byelection "so that a more electable candidate can contest the election for the party" it said in a statement.

The poll results:

Question: "Do you believe that Laurie Scott made the right decision to step down so John Tory could run to replace her?"

Responses: No—69.7% Yes—30.3%.

Question: "Now that John Tory is the PC candidate in the upcoming byelection to replace Laurie Scott, does that make you more or less likely to vote PC?

Responses: Less—48.0% More—12.7% Neither more nor less—32.8%

Question: "If John Tory wins the upcoming byelection to become your next MPP, which of the following two courses of action would you prefer he take?"

Responses: Run for re-election somewhere else: 48%. Run for re-election in this riding: 25.0%. Don't know / refuse to answer: 26.6%.

Question: "Do you have confidence in John Tory's ability to defeat the Liberals and become Premier of Ontario?"

Continued After Advertisement Below

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Responses: No—67.8% Yes—32.4%.

Question: "In the next general election, which is scheduled for 2011, would you be more likely, or less likely to vote PC if John Tory steps down as the leader of the PC Party and is replaced by another leader?"

Responses: More—29.5% Less—12.8% Same—21.7% Don't know / refusal—12.9%.

The poll surveyed 500 people in Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock on January 30, 2008. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4%, 19 times out of 20. The poll was conducted by Holinshed Research.
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 6282
Reputation: 229.1
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2009 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

think for the time being the party might be best off to just let tory have a seat for a while as an election is 3 years off still anyways . they could give him another year or so as leader and hope things improve once he gets into the legislature and back into the public eye .
if things didn't improve after a year or so , then maybe the party might want to consider a leadership race in the spring of 2010 or whatever year is of next election . have it then so it gets lots of press in the lead up to the fall vote . and new leader would have a bit of a boost in the polls and some profile .

and if your not famialar with rick johnson he seems to be the kind of candidate who grips onto issues like the last election he was all about the faith based schools issue . he or the liberals really hasn't done anything to improve the riding he's running in , he just grabs ahold of certain issues and makes noise . i don't think he'd make a very good mpp , just another backbencher to sit around and do nothing under the liberals .
RuralandRight





Joined: 30 Dec 2008
Posts: 618
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votes: 5
Location: Rural Canada

PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2009 11:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

John Tory should have stepped down right after not winning his own riding in the last election, the Ontario PC's have had this hanging over them since then.

All things considered, when he wins this by-election I will support him, if he looses he must step down immediately.
Paolo Fabrizio





Joined: 03 Mar 2009
Posts: 1


PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2009 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was asked if Tory should step down after he gets defeated yet again. My answer was he should of quit as soon as he lost in his home riding during the last election.
Maybe he will try somewhere else? Like Iceland.
www.barrielibertarians.com
paolo
Ciao
ezbeatz





Joined: 09 Oct 2008
Posts: 1140
Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5
votes: 10
Location: Vaughan, ON

PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2009 2:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Northern Raven, any prediction on how many votes John Tory will get and what percentage of the voter share that would be?

My bet is 16,000 votes and 40% of the voter share.
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 6282
Reputation: 229.1
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2009 3:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In a by-election the turnout will drop significantly , a good provincial by-election to compare this one to would be the parry sound muskoka by-election in 2001 . as it is a very similar riding to haliburton kawartha lakes brock in terms of demographics and size of riding and has alot of small towns .

i looked thru some past results on the elections ontario website .


in that by-election 40% of eligable voters cast a ballot .
http://www2.elections.on.ca/re.....p;layout=G

in tory's first by-election in dufferin peel wellington grey only 30 % of eligable voters turned out .

but turnout might be higher i noticed in nipissing by-election of 2002 , 54 % turned out according to website ( was highest turnout in recent years for a by-election )
lowest was in markham where only 16 % bothered to show up for 2007 by-election and no i did not make that number up
Rusty Bedsprings





Joined: 06 Dec 2008
Posts: 1629

votes: 5

PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2009 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I worked for a Rick Johnson for the Tories a while back in Pickering, has this liberal rick johnson had a Torie history or are they different people?
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 6282
Reputation: 229.1
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2009 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

no there 2 totally different people .

a rick johnson ran for the conservatives in ajax pickering last federal election and is a city councillor there .

the rick johnson running in haliburton is from the trillium lakelands school board and a liberal , he ran in 2007 election previously .
ezbeatz





Joined: 09 Oct 2008
Posts: 1140
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votes: 10
Location: Vaughan, ON

PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2009 4:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
lowest was in markham where only 16 % bothered to show up for 2007 by-election and no i did not make that number up


I'm not that surprised. There was a general election later that year so the by-election probably seemed pretty pointless.
ezbeatz





Joined: 09 Oct 2008
Posts: 1140
Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5Reputation: 49.5
votes: 10
Location: Vaughan, ON

PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2009 4:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The 2005 by-election in Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey had 30% turnout. That's the by-election John Tory won when Ernie Eves stepped down. Tory got 56% of the vote.
Jason Kauppinen





Joined: 01 Apr 2007
Posts: 113
Reputation: 74.2
votes: 5

PostPosted: Wed Mar 04, 2009 7:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2 people out of 17, self-selecting by choosing to come to a conservative message board, support John Tory.

Hah.
905 Tory





Joined: 05 Mar 2009
Posts: 267
Reputation: 79.4Reputation: 79.4
votes: 2

PostPosted: Thu Mar 05, 2009 10:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd vote Libertarian since at the provincial level, they'd be a perfect fit with good financial responsibility---the only thing that matters nowadays.
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If you could vote in John Tory's Byelection

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