*NEW* Login or register using your Facebook account.
Not a member? Join the fastest growing conservative community!
Membership is free and takes 15 seconds
CLICK HERE or use Facebook to login or register ---->
  |
|
Page 2 of 3
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
mr12387
Joined: 21 Sep 2007
Posts: 243
  
votes: 2
Location: Laval, Quebec
|
 Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 11:35 pm Post subject: |
 |
|
| triple M wrote: | | I don't see guys like Mike Harris, Pat Binns, or Joe Clark re-entering politics they might contribute in other ways. |
I think you bring up an excellent point. Picking good candidates is only part of it. Key political figures can be very effective in gaining popular support for a party through endorsements, aiding in fielding qualified candidates and campaigning. For example, active support from Reed Elley, Jim Gouk and Andy Burton in the next campaign could help us pick off more Dippers in BC. As well, active support from John Buchanan and Rodney MacDonald could help increase our popular vote in Cape Breton.
On another front I think we also have to look at the power of consultation with discontented PCers. Now I’m certainly not saying we should make them candidates but consulting them could help bring about more of the popular vote coming our way.
For one, turning to Jim Harris (ex-Green leader) for consultation on environmental policy, in my mind wouldn’t be a bad idea. He was an ex-PCer in Ontario, considers himself an ecological conservative and eco-capitalist and even hired David Scrymgeour, a former national director of the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada and aide to Jim Flaherty, as an advisor in 2004. Now let me set the record straight. I’m not talking about Canada saving the world from a climate change crisis, which if does in fact exist, Canada’s efforts are meaningless compared to those of the US, China, Russia, India, and Brazil. I’m talking about at home environmental solutions: protecting our lakes, forests and wildlife (within reason), protecting the public from pollution-related illness, and thinking about sustainable solutions to deal with our over flooded landfills, improving our air quality (boy could Toronto use it), and alternative sources of materials to avoid rapid depletion of our resources and of our natural environment. I think the population as a whole really underestimates the number of right wing environmentalists there are out there. Take Gary Caldwell in Comtpon Stanstead who ran for us in 2006 and ran for the Greens in 2008. If we begin to relate with that segment of the population I really see us taking more votes from the Liberals and even votes from the Greens. Such policies could also help in reviving the Canadian forestry and auto industries.
Another segment of ex-PCers to look at consulting with is the 5 Quebec MPs (4 of which were in the eastern townships) who survived in the 1997 election: Sherbooke: Quebec Premier Jean Charest, Richmond-Arthabaska: Andre Bachand who actually ran for us in this election (in Sherbrooke of all places where he achieved a dismal3rd place with 16.35% of the vote), Brome Missisquoi: Heward Graffety who ran for the Progressive Canadians in 2006, Shefford: Diane St-Jacques who switched to the Liberals and was reelected in 2000 and tried again and lost in 2004 and 2006, and Chicoutimi-Le Fjord: Andre Harvey (same story as Diane St-Jacques). These people have an understanding of the electorate that voted for them and have precise reasons for their various degrees of lack of support for the then newly formed Conservative Party. Their insight could be very useful and if we find common ground they may even be willing to lend us their support the next time around.
And some additional options for candidates/endorsers for specific ridings (key word is endorsers and not necessarily candidates):
B.C.
-Skeena-Bulkley-Valley: Andy Burton (as mentioned)
-Nanaimo-Cowichan: Reed Elley (as mentioned)
-British Columbia Southern Interior: Jim Gouk (as mentioned)
Quebec
-Vaudreuil-Soulanges: Daniel Johnson Jr.
-Abitibi Baie James Nunavik Eeyou: Jean-Maurice Matte (he was the candidate this time and did rather well considering the circumstances)
-Richmond-Arthabaska : Andre Bachand
-Any of the Laval ridings: Laval mayor Gilles Vaillancourt (I don’t know his political affiliation per say but he strikes me as conservative minded)
New Brunswick:
-Madawaska Restigouche: Jean F. Dubé
-Beausejour: Angela Vautour
Ontario :
-Windsor/Essex area: Ernie Eves
-Southern Toronto: Chris Reid!
PEI:
-Cardigan: Kevin MacAdam
Last point. The Liberals are the party that stand for nothing and therefore pick leaders and policies depending on the way the wind is blowing. To stop them from encroaching on our territory the next time around (by stealing our policies but claiming they’re a less ‘scary’ option) we need to plant our feet very well in the ridings we’d like a fighting chance of gaining/keeping and really work on the incumbent factor. If not you could see many other Rahim Jaffer’s next time around. We need to build from the riding-level up. Not doing so, and winning a majority the next time around, we risk creating another meltdown of the party (a la Mulroney) where we pander to certain groups as opposed to working together with them thus creating the possibility for unexpected stabbings in the back (a la Bouchard) and unexpected break ups (a la discontented westerners) . And on the topic of Quebec I don’t want to win more than 10 (max 15) additional seats in Quebec the next time around. Rapid expansion could prove to be detrimental in the long run. |
|
|
|
 |
Mac
Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 5497
votes: 35
Location: John Baird's riding...
|
| Posted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 9:33 am Post subject: |
|
|
Great post, mr12387. My only bone of contention would be dealing with Premier Charest before we get the dagger out of the Party's back.
-Mac |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 11:25 am Post subject: |
|
|
"*20 Nipissing-Timiskaming – LIB (12.21%): Mike Harris "
YIKES!
Assuming that Mike Harris would even want to jump back into the political arena, it would be a very bad decision to run in this riding.
The Harris Tories are still seen as the devil incarnate, and in the Timiskaming portion of the riding he would be radioactive because of the Adams Mine issue. This has finally begun to subside, so anything that would reignite it is a disaster in waiting for Conservatives. |
|
|
|
|
potan
Joined: 30 Jul 2007
Posts: 512
votes: 2
Location: Ontario
|
| Posted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 12:57 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Rahim can definitely take back Edmonton-Strathcona if the resources are provided. |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 12:20 am Post subject: |
|
|
| mr12387 wrote: | | Picking good candidates is only part of it. Key political figures can be very effective in gaining popular support for a party through endorsements, aiding in fielding qualified candidates and campaigning. |
This is a very good point. There is far too much of a disconnect from our electoral history. Voters like to know where their old favourites now stand, and we could certainly use some good advice from those who have been successful in the past.
| mr12387 wrote: | | I think the population as a whole really underestimates the number of right wing environmentalists there are out there. Take Gary Caldwell in Comtpon Stanstead who ran for us in 2006 and ran for the Greens in 2008. If we begin to relate with that segment of the population I really see us taking more votes from the Liberals and even votes from the Greens. |
The Greens are a lot closer to us than any of the other parties (demeanour notwithstanding). I should point out that Caldwell's first choice was to run for us, but someone overzealous decided that winning an extra 9.8% of the electorate in 2006 was not good enough, and so he was ousted as candidate and joined the Greens. Our new candidate did quite badly, losing 4.8% of the electorate for us. The same thing happened in Saint-Maurice - Champlain (formerly our second most likely Quebec pickup) where another farmer, Martial Toupin, won an extra 24.2% (!) of the electorate for us in 2006, only to be ousted as candidate in favour of someone who promptly lost 9.1% of the electorate for us. Mr. Toupin went on to increase the Green Party showing. Even more extreme, in Gaspe - Iles-de-la-Madeleine, formerly our most likely Quebec pickup, our former candidate, Professor Gaston Langlais, who won a full 25.4% (!) more of the elctorate for us in 2006 than we had gotten in 2004, was also informed that his nomination papers would not be signed, and so he jumped ship to the NDP (!), dramatically improving their showing for them, while we were stuck with a less-than-popular Mulroney-era former PC MP, Darryl Gray, who lost 9.7% of the electorate for us. We would not now have to be going trying to win voters from the Greens (and even the NDP), if we had not ourselves already driven so many voters there with these kinds of rankling less-than-candid and less-than-canny antics. Similar stories can be recounted in a number of other Quebec ridings and indeed around the country (didn't Mississauga South used to be one of the Ontario ridings we were most hopeful of winning?).
| mr12387 wrote: | | Another segment of ex-PCers to look at consulting with is the 5 Quebec MPs (4 of which were in the eastern townships) who survived in the 1997 election: Sherbooke: Quebec Premier Jean Charest, Richmond-Arthabaska: Andre Bachand who actually ran for us in this election (in Sherbrooke of all places where he achieved a dismal3rd place with 16.35% of the vote), Brome Missisquoi: Heward Graffety who ran for the Progressive Canadians in 2006, Shefford: Diane St-Jacques who switched to the Liberals and was reelected in 2000 and tried again and lost in 2004 and 2006, and Chicoutimi-Le Fjord: Andre Harvey (same story as Diane St-Jacques). These people have an understanding of the electorate that voted for them and have precise reasons for their various degrees of lack of support for the then newly formed Conservative Party. Their insight could be very useful and if we find common ground they may even be willing to lend us their support the next time around. |
1997 was actually the first time Andre Bachand ran for the PC. He was the only brand-new Quebec PC MP after the Mulroney - Campbell debacle and also the last one left after Charest et al all went lib and Joe Who had come and gone again.
This time round, Bachand had the good grace, sense and class, not to run in his former riding of Richmond - Arthabaska, where there was already a bruising nomination fight between a fairly good bright young new candidate and a veteran proven vote-winner (Jean Landry brought 22.8% of the electorate over to us in 2006, but ended up running as an independent. Counting both of them together they actually improved the total conservative share of the vote last week).
Bachand knows that Quebec voters, like Maritime voters, value individual personal character, fidelity, and loyalty, much more than nominal party affiliation.
Last week we scored an extra 5% or more of the electorate in the following thirty ridings now held by the opposition. I'm pretty sure that ALL of these candidates deserve another kick at the can.
1. Western Arctic +17.8% Brendan Bell
2. British Columbia Southern Interior +16.3% Robert Zandee
3. Sault Ste. Marie +13.7% Cameron Ross
4. Vancouver South +10.6% Wai Young
5. Chicoutimi – Le Fjord +10.3% Jean-Guy Maltais
6. Abitibi – Baie-James – Nunavik – Eeyou +9.5% Jean Maurice Matte
7. Mount Royal +9.4% Rafael Tzoubari
8. Yukon +9.1% Darrell Pasloski
9. Nickel Belt +9.1% Ian McCracken
10. Churchill +8.9% Wally Daudrich
11. Vancouver Kingsway +8.6% Salomon Rayek
12. Burnaby – Douglas +8.6% Ronald Leung
13. Brampton – Springdale +8.5% Parm Gill
14. Eglinton – Lawrence +8.5% Joseph Oliver
15. Elmwood – Transcona +8.4% Thomas Steen
16. Vaughan +8.3% Richard Lorello
17. Manicouagan +8.1% Pierre Breton
18. Vancouver Quadra +8.0% Deborah Meredith
19. Etobicoke North +7.9% Bob Saroya
20. York Centre +7.8% Rochelle Wilner
21. Esquimalt – Juan de Fuca +6.5% Troy DeSouza
22. Kingston and the Islands +6.4% Brian Abrams
23. New Westminster – Coquitlam +6.3% Yonah Martin
24. Moncton – Riverview – Dieppe +5.7% Daniel Allain
25. Scarborough – Agincourt +5.7% Benson Lau
26. Don Valley West +5.6% John Carmichael
27. Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup +5.5% Denis Laflamme
28. Nanaimo – Cowichan +5.5% Reed Elley
29. Scarborough Southwest +5.4% Greg Crompton
30. Ajax – Pickering +5.2% Rick Johnson
| mr12387 wrote: |
Quebec
-Vaudreuil-Soulanges: Daniel Johnson Jr.
-Abitibi Baie James Nunavik Eeyou: Jean-Maurice Matte (he was the candidate this time and did rather well considering the circumstances)
-Richmond-Arthabaska : Andre Bachand
-Any of the Laval ridings: Laval mayor Gilles Vaillancourt (I don’t know his political affiliation per say but he strikes me as conservative minded)
New Brunswick:
-Madawaska Restigouche: Jean F. Dubé
-Beausejour: Angela Vautour
Ontario :
-Windsor/Essex area: Ernie Eves
-Southern Toronto: Chris Reid!
PEI:
-Cardigan: Kevin MacAdam
|
Daniel Johnson Jr is a brilliant idea for Vaudreuil - Soulanges, his former riding (!) He would be a real catch for the CPoC. And he is still young enough to make some very big waves federally (even more than Charest ever did).
In any case, I really thing that Michael Fortier should not run in Vaudreuil - Soulanges again. While he did pick up an extra 4.8% of Vaudreuil voters for us, that is less than stellar for someone with so much apparent influence. Frankly I think he is such an anglicised "Town of Mount Royal" type that probably his best chance of winning anywhere in Quebec would be in that least Quebecois of ridings, Hull - Aylmer. (but even there perhaps not since he seems to have as little rapport with anglophone Quebecers as with francophones. Where did he come from anyway !?)
Jean-Maurice Matte did do very well in Abitibi - Baie-James - Nunavik - Eeyou.
If Andre Bachand thinks its a good idea for him to throw his hat into the ring for Richmond - Arthabaska next time then I am sure that it will be.
Gilles Vaillancourt is a good idea for Alfred-Pellan. We need to encourage more players to come up the ranks from local politics. We already have good candidates like that in Gatineau and Argenteuil and Deux-Montagnes and various other places. (I would also suggest that the mayor of Saint-Lambert, Shaun Finn, be substituted for Patrick Clune, who continues to disappoint).
Some of our candidates in New Brunswick/Nouvelle-Brunswick also seem to be spinning their wheels. So yes, Jean Dubé would definitely do better than anyone else in his own former riding, and that would definitely be better than him trying to take on Yvon Godin (only Bernard Lord could pull that one off). It is also definitely time for another Angela - Dominic rematch. I could see us winning all ten seats in New Brunswick/Nouvelle-Brunswick this way.
Ernie Eves could win Windsor - Tecumseh for us and no one else could. Assuming Mike Harris stays out of sight of course. (Sorry).
I'm also a big fan of Chris Reid's straight talk (pun intended). But not in politically correct Toronto Centre where we need a greener limper tory to stick to the shrill teflon rae shill. Better in more down-to-earth Parkdale - High Park where we can expect a tight Kennedy - Nash rematch, or in yuppifying Beaches - East York where we might hopefully help show the door to the vamp witch Minna.
And yes Cardigan would definitely put in a better showing wih MacAdam back on the wagon in the driver's seat there.
All very good choices ! Got any more ?
| mr12387 wrote: | | Last point. The Liberals are the party that stand for nothing and therefore pick leaders and policies depending on the way the wind is blowing. To stop them from encroaching on our territory the next time around (by stealing our policies but claiming they’re a less ‘scary’ option) we need to plant our feet very well in the ridings we’d like a fighting chance of gaining/keeping and really work on the incumbent factor. If not you could see many other Rahim Jaffer’s next time around. We need to build from the riding-level up. Not doing so, and winning a majority the next time around, we risk creating another meltdown of the party (a la Mulroney) where we pander to certain groups as opposed to working together with them thus creating the possibility for unexpected stabbings in the back (a la Bouchard) and unexpected break ups (a la discontented westerners) . And on the topic of Quebec I don’t want to win more than 10 (max 15) additional seats in Quebec the next time around. Rapid expansion could prove to be detrimental in the long run. |
All very good advice mr 12387  |
|
|
|
|
beaver
Joined: 09 Oct 2008
Posts: 163
|
| Posted: Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:24 pm Post subject: Re: The Dream Team |
|
|
| palomino_pony wrote: |
2. Burnaby-Douglas - This is Svend Robinson's old riding. By all accounts Bill Siskay is a good local MP. I think that this riding was close due to the vote splitting. The Greens got 3000 votes and if you assume that half came from the NDP and half from the Liberals, than the margin is even bigger. With a bit hard work, this could be won but it would take another candidate. I suggest Lorne Mayencourt.
|
Lorne Mayencourt would be a terrible fit for this riding. He doesn`t live in Burnaby first of all, nor does he understand Burnaby issues and has little to no name recognition here. Secondly, Ronald Leung did a good job shoring up the ethnic vote in his favour. Leung was a strong candidate and had good name recognition in the Chinese community (former radio talk show host). This is the closest the Conservatives have come to taking the riding in a long time. The reason why Leung lost narrowly was because the Liberal vote here collapsed, and unfortunately, more of that Liberal vote was reallocated to the NDP.
| palomino_pony wrote: |
3. Vancouver South - I think Young could win this next time. I not sure if the Liberals got lazy and thought this would be a safe seat and did not bother to get the vote out or if the Green/NDP candidates ate up some Ujjal Dosanjh's votes. This would be a great victory. |
No. The Liberals did not get lazy, they have one of the strongest and most organized campaign teams in this riding. Wai Young has a relatively small team. The NDP and the Greens also weren`t a factor as their support hovered around the same level as 2006. The reason why Wai Young came only 33 votes from winning this riding was because thousands of Liberal votes directly shifted to the Conservatives... especially the ethnic/Chinese vote. This riding is home to a massive Chinese population. Wai Young was a perfect fit for this riding because she's lived in it for 40 years, she has high credentials in policy (especially programs that help immigrants), and she herself is a Chinese woman. Plus, the CPC gained over 40% ethnic support in the Vancouver urban area. These factors all played in to the close results.
Also, Dosanjh accused the Tories of pork-barreling when they awarded Young's consulting firm $600,000 to plan some type of immigration conference. Young was given relatively high Chinese media press coverage to explain the incident, and this IMO actually worked in her favour.
| palomino_pony wrote: |
4. New Westminster-Coquitlam - It has gone Reform/Alliance/Conservative in the past with Paul Forseth winning in 1993, 97, 00, and 04. Over 12 years! The only problem is that Dawn Black is a strong local candidate. Martin did a good job, but she was parachuted into the riding in order to help with the ethnic vote. She might be able to do it next time, but I would like to have a stronger local candidate. If we could get local boy Justin Morneau to quit playing baseball for the Twins....  |
I would not consider a baseball player "a stronger local candidate." I think Yonah Martin did a solid job, and she should run again.
| palomino_pony wrote: |
5 Newton-North Delta - This riding puzzles me. I not sure if this riding truly supports Sukh Dhaliwal or if they are punishing the CPC for Grewal's past problems. Dhaliwal has an alleged history of shady past in municipal politics, has written a letter to a U.S. judge using House of Commons stationery in support of a convicted drug dealer, and supported Volpe in the Liberal leadership. Hopefully the people in Newton-North Delta get tired of voting for Liberal. Provincial Liberal MLA Kevin Falcon would be a strong candidate, but I believe he has his eyes set on the premier's job after Campbell hangs it up. |
The Nina Grewal incident has been forgiven by the electorate, as in her own riding which was a squeaker in 2006, she romped her opponent with a 20% margin of victory. But I do agree here -- Kevin Falcon would be a good candidate. |
|
|
|
|
mr12387
Joined: 21 Sep 2007
Posts: 243
votes: 2
Location: Laval, Quebec
|
| Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2008 7:31 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| paulalexdij wrote: |
All very good choices ! Got any more ?
|
Choices for new candidates. Well at the moment I’m working on the Toronto area but considering it contains 45% of the Liberals’ seats it might take me a couple days before I post those. As for Quebec, which I pretty much ignored in my initial post: 65 seats up for grabs is a lot. The first thing that’s going to have to change is the way we pick and drop candidates; more consultation – more upfront. As I see it, our Quebec candidates will have to come from 5 distinct groups: 1. our 2006 candidates that lost, 2. our 2008 candidates that lost, 3. Liberal Party of Quebec MNA’s that lost their seats in 2007, 4. the ADQ MNA’s that will be losing their seats in the next Quebec election (assuming polls don’t change too much from now and the next Quebec election) and 5. totally new star candidates.
Some ideas I have been playing around with so far though are:
-Daniel Johnson, Jr.: Vaudreuil—Soulanges (As mentioned)
-Philippe Cannon: Quebec, Hull-Aylmer or Gatineau
-Philippe Couillard: Louis-Hebert
-Nancy Charest: Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia. She ran for the Liberals this time around and almost won and I have a feeling if she would switch sides she could easily win this one for us the next time around. I don’t know much about her political beliefs however.
-And I think one or two notable ex separatists wouldn’t be a bad idea in the Montreal area (even if their chances of winning might not be that great). I think it would help increase our brand image in the Montreal area.
For example :
-Nic Leblanc: Saint Lambert
-Pierre Marc Johnson: Honore-Mercier (not sure where he stands on separation these days) |
|
|
|
|
mrsocko
Joined: 29 Oct 2006
Posts: 2393
votes: 8
Location: Southwestern Ontario
|
| Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2008 9:51 pm Post subject: |
|
|
The reason we didn't improve in Quebec this time is because Mulroney was pissed off about being ostracized and his cronies/network didn't help us this time.
Not that he had a right to be pissed. Harper was right to do it. But if he is ever cleared of wrong doing it would be nice to have him back onside. |
|
|
|
|
Willg
Joined: 19 Oct 2008
Posts: 170
Location: 905
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:46 am Post subject: |
|
|
I didn't realize that Mulroney still had a network.
I don't want John Tory anywhere near the CPC! While he is a nice guy and probably has the right intentions at heart, his reign as PC leader (as we know) has been an unmitigated disaster. Well, I suppose I could stomach Tory as an MP and perhaps a cabinet minister, but the word leadership should never be uttered near him. Besides, everyone keeps saying he might take over the Blue Jays' Presidents job to replace Godfrey. |
|
|
|
|
kwlafayette
Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 6014
votes: 28
Location: Saskatoon Saskatchewan
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:53 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Didn't John Tory help out on Kim Campbell's campaign? |
|
|
|
|
cosmostein
Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 3593
votes: 14
Location: Toronto, Ontario
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:38 am Post subject: |
|
|
| kwlafayette wrote: | | Didn't John Tory help out on Kim Campbell's campaign? |
Sub "help out on" with "burn to the ground" |
|
|
|
|
Willg
Joined: 19 Oct 2008
Posts: 170
Location: 905
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 12:40 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| cosmostein wrote: | | kwlafayette wrote: | | Didn't John Tory help out on Kim Campbell's campaign? |
Sub "help out on" with "burn to the ground" |
He was responsible for that infamous Chretien ad, wasn't he? |
|
|
|
|
mr12387
Joined: 21 Sep 2007
Posts: 243
votes: 2
Location: Laval, Quebec
|
| Posted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 12:21 pm Post subject: |
|
|
So here’s Toronto. But before you take a look at the list let me explain a few things.
As I have said previously, there is a policy area I’d like to get implemented for the next election: the implementation of ecological-conservatism, eco-capitalism and global environmental stewardship. (As previously mentioned I’m talking about taking a holistic approach to the environment and not one obsessed solely with green-house gases). So despite being a diverse bunch, quite a few of the candidates have some interest or history dealing with environmental issues.
My last point, before you read the list, is where I stretch it a bit. I added two candidates who are currently dedicated to green politics but are at the same time both, in my mind, conservatives; Jim Harris and David Scrymgeour, the latter of which worked for Jim Flaherty and even ran against John McCallum for the PC’s in 2000.
Notation Key:
%M = % Margin between Conservative and winner 2008
%C = % Change in Conservative % of popular vote in 2006 to 2008
%O = % Margin between Conservative and winner 2006
(Note: some of my decisions were based on these figures and some were based on the number of actual votes the candidate got compared to 2006)
What we won this time around:
(M is negative in this case and represents the margin our candidate won by)
Thornhill M (-9.58%) C (15.3%) O (19.39%)
Missisauga-Erindale M (-0.43%) C (3.32%) O (5.5%)
Oakville M (-10.1%) C (4.97%) O (1.25%)
Newmarket-Aurrora M (-12.44%) C (8.68%) O (8.16%)
Oak Ridges-Markham M (-0.57%) C (3.64%) O (8.59%)
York:
1- Vaughan M (11.39%) C (8.29%) O (33.67%): Julian Fantino or Richard Lorello
2 - Richmond Hill M (11.36%) C (3.77%) O (21.7%): Chungsen Leung
3 - Markham-Unionville M (24.71%) C (3.46%) O (35.16%): David Scrymgeour
Durham:
4 - Ajax-Pickering M (6.43%) C (5.15%) O (16.65%): Rick Johnson
5 - Pickering-Scarborough East M (15.73%) C (1.59%) O (20.95%): Tim Dobson
Scarborough:
6 - Scarborough – Rouge River M (35.74%) C (2.05%) O (45.18%):Jerry Bance
7 - Scarborough – Guildwood M (20.26%) C (1.31%) O (24.56%): Pauline Browes
8 - Scarborough – Agincourt M (27.15%) C (5.63%) O (38.76%): Benson Lau
9 - Scarborough – Centre M (18.55%) C (2.77%) O (28.03): Roxanne James
10 - Scarborough – Southwest M (12.36%) C (5.37%) O (23.79%): Greg Crompton
Central Toronto:
11 - Don Valley East M (15.04%) C (2.73%) O (24.84%): Angela Kennedy
12 - Don Valley West M (5.35%) C (5.61%) O (20.07%): John Parker
13 - Willowdale M (16.17%) C (3.15%) O (25.91%): David Young
14 - York Centre M (5.62%) C (7.84%) O (22.6%): Rochelle Wilner
15 - York West M (42.68%) C (-1.9%) O (45.19%): Courtney Betty
(I have no idea where he stands politically but I like his crednetials)
16 - Eglinton-Lawrence M (5.2%) C (8.51%) O (22.64%): Joe Oliver
17 - York South-Weston M (26.12%) C (2.95%) O (39.62%): John Nunziata
18 - St. Paul’s M (23.94%) C (0.8%) O (24.49%): Jim Harris
Southern Toronto
19 - Beaches-East York, 20 - Toronto-Danforth, 21 - Toronto Centre, 22 - Trinity-Spadina, 23 – Davenport, 24 - Parkdale-High Park: Same as in 2008. For the most part an interesting unassuming bunch, which I think is what we need in this area of Toronto, where the chance of any candidate under the Conservative banner winning is slim to none. A popular candidate in Toronto Centre to maximize the vote in Rosedale, with a trickle down effect for other ridings would be nice though.
Etobicoke:
25 - Etobicoke North M (18.27%) C (7.84%) O (39.27%): Bob Saroya
26 - Etobicoke Centre M (8.35%) C (4.26%) O (19.2%): Axel Kuhn
(Chris Stokwell came to mind but don’t know if his past mistakes will forver haunt him)
27 - Etobicoke Lakeshore M (11.26%) C (-0.27%) O (8.47%): John Capobianco
Peel:
28 - Brampton-West M (0.24%) C (4.27%) O (13.42%): Kyle Seeback
29 - Brampton-Springdale M (1.58%) C (8.53%) O (16.57%): Parm Gill
30 - Bramalea-Gore-Malton M (7.83%) C (4.45%) O (17.95%): Raminder Gill
31 - Mississauga-Brampton South M (14.47%) C (2.28%) O (23.19%): Melissa Bhagat
32 - Mississauga-Streetsville M (9.78%) C (0.97%) O (11.13%): Rob Sampson
33 - Mississauga East-Cooksville M (17.62%) C (1.45%) O (20.2%): Carl Defaria
34 - Mississauga South M (4.3%) C (-0.34%) O (4.08%): Phil Green
(Although she didn’t perform fantastically I kept Melissa Bhagat but moved her to Mississauga-Brampton South since although she grew up in Mississauga but now lives in Brampton. As well there was a lot of angst towards the nomination process in Mississauga East-Cooksville and I wonder if some conservative stayed home because of it. She’s pretty well known in the community and has that Ruby Dhalla appeal and I wouldn’t want to get rid of that so fast. As well, while Stella Ambler did an amicable job I think Raminder Gill has a better chance of taking Bramalea-Gore-Malton)
In addition: I would make Wajid Khan our ‘envoy’ to the GTA Muslim community. Similar to how we’ve made progress in the Chinese and Sikh community I think he could help us in getting more connected with the Pakistani, Arab, Iranian and Turkish communities.
P.S. While I admire Chris Reid for demonstrating that sexuality defines nothing more than your sexual orientation and his ability to speak his mind and stand up for his convictions I believe he would serve a much greater purpose sharing his views freely with the public as opposed to having to be constantly hushed by his political party if he were to be reisnstated as a candidate.
P.P.S. You can all free to comment/criticize. I’m very open to suggestions and criticism. |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 12:44 am Post subject: |
|
|
More again of my (revised) personal opinions regarding some of the ridings under discussion:
British Columbia:
New Westminster – Coquitlam: Yonah Martin (+6.3%): She did a good job running here against apparently a very popular (and effective) incumbent. The Libs have lost more than half their support here thus making this a harder two-way race. Yonah scored 38.8% of the vote, more than Dawn Black's winning 38.3% last time, and much more than Paul Forseth's winning 32.9% in 2004.
Vancouver South: Wai Young (+11.3%): can't help thinking we may already have won this one (and not only because this riding is 44% chinese).
Nanaimo - Cowichan: Reed Elly (+5.6%): How is it that he won with over 45% of the vote here in '97 and '00 but hasn't now?
Vancouver Quadra: Deborah Meredith (+8.0%): NDP vote has collapsed, thus making this a tight two-way race.
Skeena - Bulkley Valley: Sharon Smith (+3.4%): former CA/Reform seat now an NDP stronghold (?) (ps. this riding is 32% aboriginal)
Burnaby – Douglas: Ronald Leung (+8.6%): did an excellent job here leaping from third place; with 36.3% of the vote he has scored better than Siksay did in '00, '04, and '06; he will likely win next time. (ps. this riding is 30% chinese).
British Columbia Southern Interior: Robert Zandee (+16.6%): Liberal vote collapsed making this a two-way race against apparently a popular and effective incumbent.
Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca: Troy DeSouza (+6.6%): can't help thinking we may already have won here ...
Newton – North Delta (+0.3%): Kevin Falcon sounds like a great guy already doing a good job provincially (?) not too keen on too much provincial to federal switching though, but depends on local issues (?) do agree that a new candidate could do better in likely another three-way race (ps. this riding is 43% south asian)
Burnaby - New Westminster (+2.8%): Lib vote has collapsed with NDP being principal beneficiary (ps. this riding is 25% chinese).
Victoria: (+3.0%) Lib vote in decline with NDP being principal beneficiary; shaping into yet another NDP/CP contest.
Vancouver Kingsway: Salomon Rayek (+8.6%): Lib vote has collapsed with NDP being principal beneficiary (ps. this riding is 40% chinese).
Vancouver Centre: Lorne Mayencourt (+4.6%): did a good job coming second in a closer than expected four-way race in this unfavourable riding.
Vancouver East (+2.2%): could we come in second here?
"Quebec candidates will have to come from 5 distinct groups: 1. our 2006 candidates that lost, 2. our 2008 candidates that lost, 3. Liberal Party of Quebec MNA’s that lost their seats in 2007, 4. the ADQ MNA’s that will be losing their seats in the next Quebec election (assuming polls don’t change too much from now and the next Quebec election) and 5. totally new star candidates"
Agreed ... will be on the lookout for likely candidates
Vaudreuil – Soulanges: Daniel Johnson is a good idea (his brother is unlikely and not a good idea seeing as quebec anglo voters are already largely boycotting us for being too close to the nationalists)
Philippe Cannon should do well in provincial politics for now and follow his dad's footsteps into federal politics a little later (don't think its a great idea to have too many close family members running at the same time)
Fairly successful candidates such as Nancy Charest are unlikely to switch to us until we show sdome more progress
Philippe Couillard is a great idea if we can get him
Nic Leblanc's party-hopping career and diminishing success is regrettably a fine example of graceless aging (sorry)
| mr12387 wrote: |
York:
1- Vaughan M (11.39%) C (8.29%) O (33.67%): Julian Fantino or Richard Lorello
2 - Richmond Hill M (11.36%) C (3.77%) O (21.7%): Chungsen Leung
3 - Markham-Unionville M (24.71%) C (3.46%) O (35.16%): David Scrymgeour
|
I think Richard Lorello did quite well in Vaughan and should get a second shot, while Chungsen Leung did not do so well in Richmond Hill (which is 'only' 24% Chinese) and could maybe run again in Willowdale (which is 31% Chinese) where he ran once before, or do best in Markham - Unionville (which is 39% Chinese and 26% South Asian). I really do think Julian Fantino would be a very good candidate in Richmond Hill. David Scrymgeour might do better in Metro than the Moraine (?). (sorry about all the minority stats)
I think its a good idea to bring back Browes in Guildwood and Dobson in Scarborough East. I really don't know who is best in Rouge River but I agree our other Scarborough candidates should run again, as should Rochelle Wilner and Joe Oliver. David Young would be a good candidate and so would Nunziata. It seems there's starting to be a superabundance of good potential candidates in Metro, thus making riding and candidate matching much more difficult. Will have to post more on this another time. |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 6:51 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| mr12387 wrote: |
17 - York South-Weston M (26.12%) C (2.95%) O (39.62%): John Nunziata
|
Nunziata? No way. |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Page 2 of 3
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum
|
|
phpBBCopyright 2001, 2005 phpBB |
|
