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Riley W





Joined: 08 Jul 2007
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votes: 10
Location: Manitoba

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:30 pm    Post subject: Conservative Support Collapsing? Reply with quote

Harris Decima had us at 32% today (Liberals still down in mid 20s)...I don't like to play the poll game, but I'm getting nervous.

Although I see a glimmering light in all of this...if Canadians think (because of the polls) that it's likely going to be a Conservative Minority, that might counter some of those on the left who would vote Liberal strategically, and some of those in the centre, who weren't comfortable with a Conservative Majority, but comfortable with a Conservative Minority...

Just a theory...

Anyways, nervous...I hope this platform tomorrow makes a big impact. Come on Stephen!!
Blue Meanie





Joined: 20 Oct 2006
Posts: 329
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votes: 3
Location: B.C.

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 5:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wouldn't count on anything too surprising in the platform. What I would hope to see is some kind of advertising blitz. I really think the slide in the polling numbers is a direct result of the intense negative advertising campaign both the Libs and NDP have been running. I've heard the NDP will be spending $7 million in the last week alone. In the Lower Mainland of B.C. NDP and Lib ads are quite prolific on tv, yet I rarely see a CPC ad. B.C. is supposed to be a real opportunity for the Cons to gain seats, and they were supposed to have some big warchest, yet don't seem to putting in the effort here so far.
Habsrwfan





Joined: 04 Oct 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 6:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have to admit that I'm starting to get worried.

Harper has to reverse this really bad polling trend.

It's not so much whether or not the polls are accurate - its the impact that these poll results have on voters.

With the Conservatives in the 36-40% range, and with the Liberals in the 22-26% range, the gap between the two is huge enough for any "Scare the Dippers!" or "Scare the Greens!" strategy on the part of the Liberals to fail - i.e. the Dippers/Greens basically accept that the Conservatives are going to win anyway, and hence are more likely to vote for their preferred party.

However, with the Conservatives in the low 30s, the "Scare the Dippers!" or "Scare the Greens!" strategy just might work for the Liberals...

I really hate to say it, but... Dion might actually win this yet. Too many Canadians are buying the silly argument that our economy is on the verge of collapse when it most certainly isn't. If half of those Greens, or if a quarter of those Dippers, go to Dion...

Basically, we need to get back to 36% or higher to ensure that the Greens/Dippers feel that there's no chance of Dion beating us.
Dauphin





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unless things turn around very quickly, this election is lost. A bad economy always does in the governing party.

It's going to be so embarrassing with Stephane as P.M.
paisley_cross





Joined: 09 Jul 2008
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Location: Canada

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 6:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dauphin wrote:
Unless things turn around very quickly, this election is lost. A bad economy always does in the governing party.

It's going to be so embarrassing with Stephane as P.M.


Let's not get suicidal. :(

We are not talking of a Liberal government. Worst case scenario would be what we have now. 125-130 Conservative seats and a rambunctious opposition. Or in the words of Yogi Berra, "Déjà vu all over again".

I think the Dips will put on quite a show this week and suck votes away from the Libs.
donvan





Joined: 07 Sep 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 7:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Let's remember that Conservatives are polling better than the week before the last election, and the spread between the parties remains higher as well. No other party is close enough to be considered a possible winner other than the Cons. Also, with the Green Party, vote splitting on the left will lower the bar for a Conservative majority. That being said, momentum is important. With the platform release let's all work to remind Canadians that their very livelihood is dependant on the sound fiscal management only offered by Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party.
Habsrwfan





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 7:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dauphin wrote:
Unless things turn around very quickly, this election is lost. A bad economy always does in the governing party.

It's going to be so embarrassing with Stephane as P.M.


Prime Minister Dion (*shudder*) is a frightening possibility at this point - a possibility that ought to move us Conservatives to do everything that we can to prevent it from happening with lots of hard work trying to persuade friends/family members to vote Conservative (or at least anything but Liberal) - but it's still unlikely.

However, if these poll numbers aren't soon reversed, it goes from unlikely to a Harper/Dion toss-up. We really need to stop the bleeding.
mrsocko





Joined: 29 Oct 2006
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Location: Southwestern Ontario

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 8:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

People are panicking. Glad it's a week before the election and people have time to come to their senses.

People in the ballot bax will still choose the steady CPC over the Liberal pipe dreams and Dippers delusions.
Mac





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
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Location: John Baird's riding...

PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mrsocko wrote:
People are panicking. Glad it's a week before the election and people have time to come to their senses.

People in the ballot bax will still choose the steady CPC over the Liberal pipe dreams and Dippers delusions.

I couldn't have said it better myself. Relax, folks. This is better than having the MSM screaming in fear of a Harper majority, scaring people into strategic voting.

-Mac
Northern Ontario Tory





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 9:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mac wrote:
mrsocko wrote:
People are panicking. Glad it's a week before the election and people have time to come to their senses.

People in the ballot bax will still choose the steady CPC over the Liberal pipe dreams and Dippers delusions.

I couldn't have said it better myself. Relax, folks. This is better than having the MSM screaming in fear of a Harper majority, scaring people into strategic voting.

-Mac


Indeed. Mike Duffy indicated tonight that it is expected there will be a CPC bounce at the ballot box, as with the ADQ in Quebec where people are uneasy with telling pollsters they are federalist. The same could easily apply to some other areas. Besides, if Rae is running around attacking the "Nader twins" (Layton and May), it shows how worried they are at the vote splitting among the left.
Craig
Site Admin




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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 10:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the media wanted to ensure that there wasn't a CPC majority. Now that it appears to be unlikely I expect they will let off a bit. I think liberals in general want Dion gone and that won't happen if he wins or even comes close to winning.
shadow27





Joined: 07 Oct 2008
Posts: 3


PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 6:53 am    Post subject: Yes, Harper's lead is collapsing - and collapsing fast Reply with quote

Hi,

ABC - Danny was so right. Yes, Harper's lead is collapsing - and collasing fast - and here's why. Here are two URL’s for 2 internet anti-harper political ads I have produced. Please distribute them as far and wide as possible – including your favourite Canadian political blogs. Thank you. All the best.


Ad # 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hn6bLRw4LG4

Ad # 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Szu-7WR_rU8

Cheers!
concerned





Joined: 03 Jul 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 7:22 am    Post subject: Re: Yes, Harper's lead is collapsing - and collapsing fast Reply with quote

shadow27 wrote:
Hi,

ABC - Danny was so right. Yes, Harper's lead is collapsing - and collasing fast - and here's why. Here are two URL’s for 2 internet anti-harper political ads I have produced. Please distribute them as far and wide as possible – including your favourite Canadian political blogs. Thank you. All the best.


Ad # 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hn6bLRw4LG4

Ad # 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Szu-7WR_rU8

Cheers!


Those were very weak ads.
JDot





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 727
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Location: Ontario(GTA)

PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 8:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I think the media wanted to ensure that there wasn't a CPC majority. Now that it appears to be unlikely I expect they will let off a bit


I don't think the meda will stop. I still think a CPC majority is just a bonus. But I have to say I like the CPC numbers right now(well Iwould like them more if they where higher). It takes away the Harper majority card from the LPC and gives the CPC a week to pull the numbers up. And maybe catch a little surge going into voting day.

I still think it will be a minority government, and always thought that was the likly outcome. Just reading and listening to the media talk about the economy, they are doing there best to distort the issue.

A week is a long time in politics, it's going to be interesting last week.
shadow27





Joined: 07 Oct 2008
Posts: 3


PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 8:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weak ads in what sense? They both show the real 'doubt' the average Canadian has - which is why Harper will not get a majority government. The average Canadian doesn't trust Harper - and for good reason!

These ads tell it the way it is. They don't try and inflate the issues, just illuminate them.

Fess up. Harper is dead meat. Why he chose to call an election when he did says more about his character, or lack thereof, than anythung else. I think after the results are in - and we have another minority Conservatiive government, at best, in the next federal election it will be the Liberals who will get a minority or majority government.

Just a bad move all the way around by Harper. You can't fool the average Canadian with such opportunistic tactics. You just can't.

Cheers!
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