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SFrank85





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PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It all depends

If a Conservative minority…Ignatieff

If a Conservative majority…Trudeau.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dalton McGuinty.

The Liberals need to distance themselves from the Chretien/Martin/Dion Liberal Party. Dion was a final gasp of air by members of the party for one last chance at the "Glory Days" and its pretty clear at this point that this route has failed.

While I would have little issue with the Liberals opting for Michael Ignatieff, its pretty clear the core of the party can't stand him. Liberals leadership hopefuls who were defeated of stood down and delegates avoid this guy on the Convention floor as though him and his supporters were a leper colony.

Iggy has the most support from "new" Liberals, but most of the party is populated with old guard thinkers who simply won't be able to hold their nose and watch Michael Ignatieff take the party in a direction that is off the charted course.

If the Liberals do get crushed because Dion ran Left and the left was so divided that it caused massive vote splitting in key ridings in Ontario and BC then I get the feeling that Rae and Kennedy's brand of "Liberal" may be avoided come convention time.

Which leaves you with a few things they NEED to do:

1) They HAVE to select a federal party outsider, someone who who is seen as a Liberal but is free of the stink of the current federal party

2) They need to have experience in leadership as a Liberal, the knock against Iggy was that he came back to Canada to "save" the party, clearly a lack of political experience does not go far on the floor of a Liberal convention.

3) They NEED someone who can straddle the center and go slightly left or right when needed to try and win back some of their soft support from the center.

4) They HAVE to be from Ontario, the glory days of strong Quebec and BC Liberal support are gone and now Ontario is rotting from the Rural areas through Suburbia of Liberal support. Its very clear that Dion is not exciting many folks in Oakville or Burlington and as such in order to firm up the base you need a known commodity from Ontario.

While I will be the first to admit I don't love the idea of Dalton McGuinty leading the Federal Liberals, but right now your options are pretty limited with the limited success the Provincial Liberal Parties are having.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 3:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SFrank85 wrote:


If a Conservative majority…Trudeau.


The Liberals have to save him,
His fathers strength came from HUGE support in Quebec, support I am not entirely sure young Justin can win back for the Liberals (IE 60 seats+) or basically 60% in Quebec at this point.

Coupled with needing mid-40% in Ontario.

The landscape is too rocky to have him be the one to rebuild the party, the need a placeholder who can step in and flush the toilet on the science experiment the Liberal Party has become. Let Justin sit in the back of the room and learn, become a critic sit on some committees and bring him along over the next decade and then spring him on the voters.
SFrank85





Joined: 03 Mar 2007
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Location: Toronto - Scarborough Southwest

PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
SFrank85 wrote:


If a Conservative majority…Trudeau.


The Liberals have to save him,
His fathers strength came from HUGE support in Quebec, support I am not entirely sure young Justin can win back for the Liberals (IE 60 seats+) or basically 60% in Quebec at this point.

Coupled with needing mid-40% in Ontario.

The landscape is too rocky to have him be the one to rebuild the party, the need a placeholder who can step in and flush the toilet on the science experiment the Liberal Party has become. Let Justin sit in the back of the room and learn, become a critic sit on some committees and bring him along over the next decade and then spring him on the voters.


You do know this is the Liberal Party you are talking about, right?
Northern Ontario Tory





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PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 6:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just curious, but does anybody know the way the Liberal leadership review is held?

Will Dion need a simple majority to be able to remain as leader? I hope he stays on..... it's only fair since in Ontario we are stuck with John Tory.

In any event, if we assume that Dion resigns or is given the boot, wouldn't those who supported Dion have little or no chance (ie: Kennedy, Trudeau, Dryden, Martha Hall-Findlay)??
Louise M.





Joined: 30 Jul 2007
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Location: Ottawa

PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 6:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apparently, the Lib leadership convention was canceled. I guess it's because they're flat broke.
Maybe Dion will stay on as leader after all. Iggy and Rae will love that.:lol:

http://www.canada.com/victoria.....ad6c5dbba1
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 9:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Dalton McGuinty could be problematic. Ontario is in deep financial trouble. Manufacturers are moving out, people are losing jobs, and McGuinty is not doing a good job there. He could turn out to be the second coming of Bob Rae.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 11:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kwlafayette wrote:
I think Dalton McGuinty could be problematic. Ontario is in deep financial trouble. Manufacturers are moving out, people are losing jobs, and McGuinty is not doing a good job there. He could turn out to be the second coming of Bob Rae.


Yeah but he is singing the right song,

"Its all Harpers fault"
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 9:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If only Ontario had listened to the warnings they got from the feds, and started the structural reforms necessary to fix their economy. As it was, all they did was call Flaherty names when he came out and told them what was bad about the Ontario economy.
DMeyers





Joined: 01 Oct 2008
Posts: 3

Location: Saskatoon

PostPosted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Could be Manley or Frank Mckinna. They sat out last run because they knew this election was likely not going to be in the liberals favor.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 11:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

DMeyers wrote:
Could be Manley or Frank Mckinna. They sat out last run because they knew this election was likely not going to be in the liberals favor.


Manley plays for our team now, and I am not sure if McKenna is interested in the rebuilding program that the Liberal Party now is,

McKenna maybe, Manley unlikely.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 11:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kwlafayette wrote:
If only Ontario had listened to the warnings they got from the feds, and started the structural reforms necessary to fix their economy. As it was, all they did was call Flaherty names when he came out and told them what was bad about the Ontario economy.


I think back to an episode of the Simpsons, [3F20] Much Apu About Nothing

Lisa: That's spacious reasoning, Dad.
Homer: Thank you, dear.
Lisa: By your logic I could claim that this rock keeps tigers away.
Homer: Oh, how does it work?
Lisa: It doesn't work.
Homer: Uh-huh.
Lisa: It's just a stupid rock.
Homer: Uh-huh.
Lisa: But I don't see any tigers around, do you?
[Homer thinks of this, then pulls out some money]
Homer: Lisa, I want to buy your rock.

If Dalton becomes leader as long as he keeps using the rock that keeps tigers away, he could make headway in Ontario, and sings that Harper keeps the economy weak and the economy was just super before Harper showed up in Ontario he can convince Ontario voters that the Liberals are the rock that keeps the economy booming.


Last edited by cosmostein on Wed Oct 01, 2008 3:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
DMeyers





Joined: 01 Oct 2008
Posts: 3

Location: Saskatoon

PostPosted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 11:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wouldn't say Manley plays for our Team...He is certainly closer to the current conservatives than the current left liberals. I think he can try and regain central ground, and try to force Harper further right, while unifying some disaffected lefties.
It is all a battle for the middle ground and Manley is definately more centrist. I am not sure if he has the strength to pull it off, there are a pile of NDP'ers who are infecting the party right now. He would face many of the same challanges Iggy had, especially since his afghanistan report.
Regardless, I don't think it will be anyone from the last run, but will come from someone who was smart enough to wait it out on the sidelines until after this drubbing.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DMeyers wrote:
I wouldn't say Manley plays for our Team...He is certainly closer to the current conservatives than the current left liberals. I think he can try and regain central ground, and try to force Harper further right, while unifying some disaffected lefties.
It is all a battle for the middle ground and Manley is definately more centrist. I am not sure if he has the strength to pull it off, there are a pile of NDP'ers who are infecting the party right now. He would face many of the same challanges Iggy had, especially since his afghanistan report.
Regardless, I don't think it will be anyone from the last run, but will come from someone who was smart enough to wait it out on the sidelines until after this drubbing.


The issue with Manley is that his report on Afghanistan hurt the Liberals position, and with that said while some voters may welcome him as leader I don't quite think the folks close to the core of the party will soon forget that, and as we saw at the last leadership convention the peoples choice lost out to the parties choice.

As to the above highlighted point, the Liberals would need to lose huge and flush the toilet on some of the left leaning Liberals that are in the party via election defeat rather then Manley walking in and kicking a series of them to the curb further splitting a divided party.

Couple that with the fact that I personally believe the Liberals need a new leader who was not an MP during the time of AdScam to truly put that behind them.
DMeyers





Joined: 01 Oct 2008
Posts: 3

Location: Saskatoon

PostPosted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 3:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cosmo:

Thanks for the reply, you make alot of sense. I said Manley as an option, I wouldn't put much money on it, but saw it as a possibility.

As for a required flushing down the electoral toilet to rid the party of far left libs, that is a real possibility. The next leader will have to be more centrist.

cheers
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Who will be the next leader of the Liberal Party?

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