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TorontoCon





Joined: 14 Aug 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 5:37 pm    Post subject: A 2008 Election? WHATS THE POINT? Reply with quote

I've been thinking of this whole election thing....

The way I see it, an election in October 2008, one year earlier than the fixed date of October 2009 simply buys the CPC 6 months tops....

Let's say that the CPC wins another minority in October 2008 (after spending millions of dollars campaigning etc.....).

All that will get you is 18 months or so to govern. Dion will be ousted as leader, and the Liberals will at least have a better leader. They won't let the CPC govern longer than 18 months or so.

That brings us to about a MARCH 2010 election.... once the "revived" Liberals, with a new leader feel they have a chance at knocking the CPC out...

What's the point of this election? if it happens...

Here's hoping the dust settles and once again, the fixed date will come through.

As much as I love election time, I simply don't see the point until either the full mandate is completed and HOPEFULLY by that time, the polls will shift in the CPC's favor.

Simply put, we need a majority and right now it seems impossible.
FF_Canuck





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

*If* Harper and his team are serious about an election, then I really don't know what they're thinking. As you said TorontoCon, we're ten points from where we need to be, and I don't think that math is going to change enough over a campaign. It might change over another year of solid governance.
Cool Blue





Joined: 21 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Assuming Dion loses it will cause the Libs to become even more disorganized than they are now and will have them spend money they don't have going even more in debt.

Then they'd have to pay for a new leadership race before most of their old candidates have paid off the last one.

Plus if they get less votes than last election, they'll get less money from the $1.75 vote subsidy, further complicating their financial problems.
Cool Blue





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PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chretien got a majority with 37%.

Assuming Harper is at 35%, I think he could get up to 38-40% during the election, depending on how Dion and the Green Shaft tank.

Keep in mind that if we wait, the Libs are scheduled to have a leadership review at their convention in a few months. It's possible that they might push out Dion then so it's better to call an election now rather than go against a more competent leader.
Cool Blue





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PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Furthermore, I think if we get a few seats short of a majority, we could probably get some MPs to cross the floor because:

1) the Libs will be falling apart due to infighting/leadership races

2) better to be a government MP than an opposition backbencher

3) if they move over and create a majority, their job will be guaranteed for 4 years, whereas in a minority, you might only get a year or two. This would be tempting for newer MPs who haven't had enough time served to qualify for a pension yet.
krackerjack121





Joined: 24 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I personally would like to see the Tories cause the Grits to have to vote against a confidence measure. Put together a mini budget ala Ralph Goodale and make something so unpaletable that they would be sure to vote against it. I don't know what that would be, but do something like that. Then they could at least run on the condition that the Libs weren't willing to let them govern and this is there "fault".

Rocky
JDot





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PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
What's the point of this election? if it happens...


To get a mandate for a government, regardless of the party.
Duck Tory





Joined: 01 Dec 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Personally this is a double edge sword....One begin that Conservatives can move for a election and we have a chance to get a majority....however due to the Universal Healthcare addicts and lazy People we may find ourselves in another minority thanks to the Martime region's culture of defeat.. If Election does begin i want the Conservatives to have a Majority that can change Canada from Racist Hypercrites and self-deniers to a Nation of Compassion.
marklar





Joined: 03 Oct 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 8:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cool Blue wrote:
Chretien got a majority with 37%.

Assuming Harper is at 35%, I think he could get up to 38-40% during the election, depending on how Dion and the Green Shaft tank.



Yep, it doesn't take much. Check the latest CROP poll in Quebec where we're gaining some ground, CROP called quebec almost dead on last time, so that's good news. An interesting note, of the group of people who support the Quebec Liberal Party, they prefer the CPC (36%) to the Federal Libs (34%), i thought that was just special.

The BC libs are taking a beating since the carbon tax. One can only imagine that'll carry over to the federal Libs since they're pushing the same policy.

The main advantage I see around calling the election now: Money. Drain the Libs' resources, if they lose seats that's less federal subsidy, and two leadership conventions in such a short time and all the associated in-fighting is gonna make for two things: leadership debts and tough fundraising. Oh, and there's the matter of the lawsuits from Harper and Green Shift Inc.

A tight well-run campaign could hopefully net us an official majority, or if not, a minority will amount to a de facto majority for quite a while. Like Flannigan said in the Globe today, it's a war of attrition and the Libs' losing another election is going to be expensive and demoralizing. I was a little nervous, but there's definitely enough reasons around to be positive things will work out. Again though, the campaign itself can make or break the CPC.
DM Schwartz





Joined: 08 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 8:31 pm    Post subject: Re: A 2008 Election? WHATS THE POINT? Reply with quote

TorontoCon wrote:
I've been thinking of this whole election thing....

The way I see it, an election in October 2008, one year earlier than the fixed date of October 2009 simply buys the CPC 6 months tops....

Let's say that the CPC wins another minority in October 2008 (after spending millions of dollars campaigning etc.....).

All that will get you is 18 months or so to govern. Dion will be ousted as leader, and the Liberals will at least have a better leader. They won't let the CPC govern longer than 18 months or so.

That brings us to about a MARCH 2010 election.... once the "revived" Liberals, with a new leader feel they have a chance at knocking the CPC out...

What's the point of this election? if it happens...

Here's hoping the dust settles and once again, the fixed date will come through.

As much as I love election time, I simply don't see the point until either the full mandate is completed and HOPEFULLY by that time, the polls will shift in the CPC's favor.

Simply put, we need a majority and right now it seems impossible.


I not sure I agree with your assessment. First the Liberal party is in debt and being sued by numerous entities. They are still paying for the last leadership race, so they may just have to hang on the Dion for the foreseeable future because they can't afford another race yet....Dion may still in charge in 2010 or perhaps an interin leader if he quits.

I doubt 2010 is viable for them to be vived and who knows, now that the hidden agenda scare from the Liberals didn't come true, PM Harper may be in the perfect position to snatch a majority. we'll see.
mrsocko





Joined: 29 Oct 2006
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Location: Southwestern Ontario

PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 8:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Conservatives lead in Quebec: poll

http://www.canada.com/montreal.....f3994cf919

Quote:
A survey by the reputable CROP polling firm shows the Conservatives heading the pack with 31 per cent support, a shade ahead of the Bloc Québécois, which registered 30 per cent. The Liberals trail in third place with 20 per cent, followed by the NDP with 14 per cent support.

The poll also showed that Stephen Harper is by far Quebecers' top choice among federal party leader, with 35 per cent saying he is best suited to be prime minister. New Democratic Party leader Jack Layton came in second, favoured by 24 per cent, while only 20 per cent opted for Liberal leader Stéphane Dion.
Craig
Site Admin




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PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We win another minority. Dion loses the leadership with a $700,000 debt. The Liberals hold another costly leadership contest making them unable to contest an election for at least two years. We then govern as if we have a majority for another two years.
Cool Blue





Joined: 21 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 4:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

plus in the fall:

- people start thinking about their heating expenses (and how much the Shaft will cost them)

- the Harper VS Liberal libel lawsuit begins which will offer up plenty of headlines about Liberals lying (as somebody mentioned)
paisley_cross





Joined: 09 Jul 2008
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votes: 3
Location: Canada

PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 6:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cool Blue wrote:
plus in the fall:

- people start thinking about their heating expenses (and how much the Shaft will cost them)



Good point - and I use oil to heat.

The later in the fall the better. Already I have received advice from my oil company about their "equal payment" plan. The closer to winter the more sensitive the public will be to Dion's plan to increase fuel oil taxes.
TorontoCon





Joined: 14 Aug 2007
Posts: 796
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 5:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great points by all. I at least feel a little better going in to this....
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