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Craig
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 12:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kwlafayette wrote:
Quote:
Electric cars are coming, and tech companies are already working with car manufacturers and utilities to develop ways to manage power consumption in the interest of saving money and distributing demand. Electric cars are destined to become one of the top residential electricity consumers -- in some cases, more than the summertime power draw of the air conditioner and water heater combined.

http://www.technewsworld.com/s.....1286942924

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/toron.....plant.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L.....ted_States

Quote:
Cancellation of a coal-fired power plant in Michigan announced on Friday brings to 97 the number of plants scuttled since 2001, said the Sierra Club, an environmental group that opposes coal plants because they are major emitters of gasses blamed for global warming.

http://www.reuters.com/article.....SX20090501

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N.....ut_of_2003

Somehow, the circle does not square here, can't quite put my finger on it though. Guess I don't have the "giant brain" that the electric car people have.

In the 30s, in the prairies, they called cars converted to horse power Bennett Buggies or Anderson Carts (Hoover Wagon in the US). Wonder what they will call electric cars when there is no power available to charge them?


If you had a giant brain you would know that the majority of time spent charging these cars is at night when electricity usage is low on the grid. This actually makes existing plants more efficient because they can run closer to capacity 24/7. As it stands now most power plants are running largely idle during the night - a huge waste given their cost. Pitty you spent so much time writing this nonsense when a large brain would have made you realize the truth.
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 9:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Craig wrote:
kwlafayette wrote:
Anyone who thinks they know what the world will be like in 20 years has their head somewhere.


You seem to be saying that electric cars will fail. Why is it okay for you to make that prediction but I can't predict the opposite. You are a pure hypocrite - plain and simple.
You can be as wrong as you want. I have no power to censor you here. You can either accept that you are wrong, or keep arguing.

No coal power.
No nuclear power. (the problem is even worse here, as many existing plants are near end if life, and will not even be replaced)
No gas power.
How are your solar panels going to recharge your car when you plug in at night?

It is fine to have millions of electric cars, but if there is not enough power, there is not enough power. Without electricity, there is no way a plug in electric car can get you to work in the morning. It is even worse that not enough power, a lot of places like Toronto, which should have had a new transmission line into the downtown a decade ago, do not have the infrastructure to support it. There was a pretty extensive blackout this summer, as I recall.

Coupled with the not enough power, and the reliability problems introduced with wind and solar, and the infrastructure problems, is the fact that green laws are making electricity more expensive (someone has to pay for generation technology that does not work, and the government incentives to go green). Go look at your latest power bill, and tell me how much better off you will be when you have an electric car, but electricity is at 70 cents per killowatt hour.

Electric cars could succeed, if we had ample generation. But we don't, we are scrapping plans to build new generation. Right now, the electric car is setup to fail.
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 9:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Craig wrote:
kwlafayette wrote:
Somehow, the circle does not square here, can't quite put my finger on it though. Guess I don't have the "giant brain" that the electric car people have.


If you had a giant brain you would know that centralized electrical energy production is FAR more efficient than distributed gasoline powered engines. Gasoline powered engines in cars are EXTREMELY inefficient (mostly through heat loss). I presume you have some intellect buried deep behind your ideology. It just rarely emerges in these forums.
Ah, so you cede the argument then. Since your obviously giant brain cannot make a rational argument, I assume there is no rational argument that you can make.

Central generation is more efficient you are correct. Too bad we are not building any.

I win.
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 10:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am sorry, but this is really funny, and I cannot resist.

I have pointed out problems with:
    * energy density of batteries
    * raw materials used to make batteries (if you are afraid of peak oil, how can peak lithium not phase you, or the fact that China controls all the rare earths)
    * electricity supply (no one on the continent is building any significant new base load generation)
    * electricity cost (due to government regulation AND decreasing supply coupled with increasing demand AND feed in tariffs for "green" generation)
    * electricity infrastructure
    * reliability of electrical supply (all those windmills cause instability due to the erratic nature of the energy produced; no one knows if when or how much power they will be getting from them)
    * all levels of government are already in deficit, and it will take a lot of money to solve any/all of these problems


And you have come back with:
    * people are working on new batteries that will be ready years or decades from now
    * "poo poo head"

Why are you surprised that I am laughing at your predictions of electric car dominance?

The only way electric cars will be successful in any way, is if we started a fairly large build out of new generation capacity, stopped wasting money on wind and solar power, and let the people who want them bear the cost by themselves. Government cannot afford to pay people to drive cars, it cannot afford to pay people to generate unreliable power. $20 some billion deficit in Ontario, $50 some billion deficit at the federal level, if you take all levels of government across the country, pretty safe bet we are past borrowing $100 billion this year. This sort of spending has a tendency to get out of control you know.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kwlafayette wrote:

* electricity supply (no one on the continent is building any significant new base load generation)
* electricity cost (due to government regulation AND decreasing supply coupled with increasing demand AND feed in tariffs for "green" generation)
* electricity infrastructure


This is my concern in a nutshell.
Most neighborhoods, even many of the new ones being built are simply not equip for the draw requirements of having every tenth house on the block plugging in their car every night around 6:30 when they get home, let alone all ten or two cars at all ten.

Even if we put the infrastructure question aside,
People moving to electric cars are going to need economic benefits to do so, and unless we plan to expand Nuclear or Coal electricity generation in a big way we are going to be faced with increasing energy costs which may make plugging in a car at the end of the day less cost effective then simply tanking up at the corner.

I think we will see a few people zipping around in Electric cars, however we have a few issues we need to bang out before we can have the majority of us in them.
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
kwlafayette wrote:

* electricity supply (no one on the continent is building any significant new base load generation)
* electricity cost (due to government regulation AND decreasing supply coupled with increasing demand AND feed in tariffs for "green" generation)
* electricity infrastructure


This is my concern in a nutshell.
Most neighborhoods, even many of the new ones being built are simply not equip for the draw requirements of having every tenth house on the block plugging in their car every night around 6:30 when they get home, let alone all ten or two cars at all ten.

Even if we put the infrastructure question aside,
People moving to electric cars are going to need economic benefits to do so, and unless we plan to expand Nuclear or Coal electricity generation in a big way we are going to be faced with increasing energy costs which may make plugging in a car at the end of the day less cost effective then simply tanking up at the corner.

I think we will see a few people zipping around in Electric cars, however we have a few issues we need to bang out before we can have the majority of us in them.


What is going to happen is, the first few people to buy in will be free riders in many ways. They will get their electricity at today's cheap rates, the government will have chipped in to help buy their cars, and they may even get "free" charging by plugging in during the day at work (in the cold northern climate, who doesn't have an electrified lot?). These people will realize incredible cost savings in the first year or so, and this will encourage more people. That is when the escalating demand and diminishing supply kicks in. The government will see the "free charging" and step in with a taxable benefit for electrified parking, and employers may also start docking pay for electric drivers. The incentives will be phased out. The first round of battery pack replacements will start. Meanwhile, costs will actually start to drop for the holdouts; as less people want gasoline, the price will drop (assuming governments don't step up the gas taxes). The holdouts will also be able to keep driving as the electricity rationing hits major urban centers.

In 20 years, if everyone is driving an electric car, it will be cheaper to buy your own diesel generator and tanker truck, rather than pay retail rates for electricity.
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://spreadsheets.google.com.....XzmpU3Q3cQ

Found some interesting stuff. Seems the break even point on electric cars is electricity below 22.5 cents per kwh (with gasoline at $1.20). You get above that (which seems increasingly likely as we continue with solar and wind incentives), and your old internal combustion engine costs you less.

Denmark, a green power leader, is already over 40 cents per killowatt hour, and the electric car is not even mainstream yet.

PS. In Denmark. looks like they are currently paying just over $2 CDN per liter. Looks like that is one country where you are already in the red behind the wheel of an electric car, in terms of operating costs.
Craig
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 9:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kwlafayette wrote:
And you have come back with:
    * people are working on new batteries that will be ready years or decades from now
    * "poo poo head"


How immature.

I have come back with...

1. Most charging demand will be off peak which will make generating stations more efficient.

To which you have ZERO response.

2. Centralized power generation is far more efficient than distributed combustion engines.

To which you have ZERO response.

3. Battery technology is constantly improving including a 10X increase in energy densities just recently announced.

To which you have ZERO response.

Weak. Very weak.

Here is a statement made earlier that you ignored then and will ignore again because you are incapable to countering an argument...

In locations such as Ontario, where there is a high level of constant electric generation due to a high mix of nuclear power generation and large-scale hydro-electric power generation, much of the power goes to "waste" in off-peak times as generation exceeds the baseload due to the impracticality of scaling back the output of a CANDU reactor or hydro-electric plant on an hour-by-hour basis. In Ontario, baseload demand varies between 12000 and 15000 MW depending on season[95] while the total generation by nuclear and hydroelectric plants (when all are in operation) accounts for over 19000 MW.[96] In this jurisdiction and other similar ones, electric vehicles which are charged during off-peak times result in zero additional pollution


Last edited by Craig on Wed Oct 13, 2010 9:47 pm; edited 2 times in total
Craig
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 9:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kwlafayette wrote:
Central generation is more efficient you are correct. Too bad we are not building any.

I win.


You know how supply and demand works right? When the demand increases so will the supply. If you can't grasp simple concepts then you are a lost cause. But I'm glad you finally acknowledge the fundamental flaw of gasoline engines (they are only 15% efficient).
Craig
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 9:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kwlafayette wrote:
Since your obviously giant brain cannot make a rational argument, I assume there is no rational argument that you can make.


Translation: poo poo head

Such a hypocrite :lol:
Craig
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 9:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kwlafayette wrote:
Why are you surprised that I am laughing at your predictions of electric car dominance?


My prediction? I'm not surprised.

The prediction of the CEO of Mitsubishi...

Quote:
The two masts on which the growth strategy would rely on would be Mitsubishi's potency in ecological expertise through its electric car production and the extension in budding markets through the 'Global Small Car', which is marked to go on sale by the end of 2011.

The foremost mass-volume carmaker to start selling battery-run electric cars with the egg-shaped i-MiEV, Mitsubishi Motors, went on with a sales target of 40,000 units by 2012.


If the technology and hurdles that you describe are as insurmountable as you like to pretend then EVERY AUTOMAKER IN THE WORLD WOULD NOT BE SHIFTING PRODUCTION TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES. EVERY SINGLE AUTOMAKER IN THE WORLD Is MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION. ALL OF THEM. THEY ARE ALL COMMITTING BILLIONS TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES.

I guess they are all wrong? I guess they are throwing billions of shareholder dollars down the drain? I guess you are smarter than them? LOL

Why would they do this if the technology was so horrible?
Craig
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 10:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As for the "infrastructure" argument...

BP, Arco, Best Buy to install fast chargers for electric cars

It is starting :lol:

Quote:
It's no coincidence that the fast charger unveiled Wednesday is called Blink. The 480-volt electric-vehicle charger from the San Francisco firm ECOtality is capable of fully recharging a vehicle in 15 to 28 minutes.


15 to 28 minutes. Hmmm. I could have lunch, buy groceries, do countless things in that amount of time. I wonder how many private businesses would install this charger to gain a competitive advantage luring customers to their stores.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.co.....rgers.html
Craig Smith





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Barely a day goes by without a major announcement related to electric vehicles. This just announced today...

Tesla, Toyota In Electric Powertrain System Deal



Quote:
Tesla and Toyota announced in July plans to work jointly on an electric version of the Rav4, a small SUV that is always among the top-selling vehicles in the United States.


The vehicle will be commercially available in 2012.

Somebody needs to tell Toyota that electric vehicles suck before they waste $60 million doing this!!!!

http://www.reuters.com/article.....9420101013
don muntean





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 14, 2010 12:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

LOL if everyone went meatless just one day a week - we would never have to consider any carbon emissions from automobiles...

Why care anyway - let's hope that climate change is real - i hate winter - we need global warming - please everyone drive more - warm up that car five minutes longer each day!

Sadly the issue isn't about pseudo climate change as much as it's about funding oil rich nations that hate us and our way of life. Oil - what can take its place in the automobile? We have to see if we can perfect the efficiency of the combustion engine as that is likely our best chance to become less dependent on middle east oil. We also need to perfect the oil sands extraction process. We have oil we just need enough resolve to get it without significant environmental impact.

One day electric cars will be viable - just seems that the current battery system is inadequate for the power needs. Until then drive your car and don't worry about it - you're paying enough to do so after all....
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 14, 2010 6:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Craig wrote:
kwlafayette wrote:
And you have come back with:
    * people are working on new batteries that will be ready years or decades from now
    * "poo poo head"


How immature.

I have come back with...

1. Most charging demand will be off peak which will make generating stations more efficient.

To which you have ZERO response.

2. Centralized power generation is far more efficient than distributed combustion engines.

To which you have ZERO response.

3. Battery technology is constantly improving including a 10X increase in energy densities just recently announced.

To which you have ZERO response.

Weak. Very weak.

Here is a statement made earlier that you ignored then and will ignore again because you are incapable to countering an argument...

In locations such as Ontario, where there is a high level of constant electric generation due to a high mix of nuclear power generation and large-scale hydro-electric power generation, much of the power goes to "waste" in off-peak times as generation exceeds the baseload due to the impracticality of scaling back the output of a CANDU reactor or hydro-electric plant on an hour-by-hour basis. In Ontario, baseload demand varies between 12000 and 15000 MW depending on season[95] while the total generation by nuclear and hydroelectric plants (when all are in operation) accounts for over 19000 MW.[96] In this jurisdiction and other similar ones, electric vehicles which are charged during off-peak times result in zero additional pollution


You really have no idea do you? "Most charging demand will be off peak", really? 300 million electric cars all over the continent plug in between the hours of 6pm and 6am. That means, the old off peak becomes the new peak time.

"Centralized power generation is far more efficient than distributed combustion engines" All you have to do, is name 10 base load power plants that have been constructed within the past 10 years, anywhere on the continent. 97 coal new coal plants have been canceled. Probably that many nuclear projects have been canceled. You need a lesson in reading comprehension here. NO ONE IS BUILDING ANY CENTRALIZED POWER GENERATION. What is it about this statement that you do not understand? Is there a simpler way that I can say this?

"Battery technology is constantly improving including a 10X increase in energy densities just recently announced." Years or decades or away. How do you build a car with a battery that is not available? How can you build a car with something that does not yet exist, of unknown future cost?

There are your answers. For the fourteenth time.

I am through wasting my time on someone who it seems has a problem reading, or comprehending what he is reading. You do not understand anything.
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