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mrsocko





Joined: 29 Oct 2006
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Location: Southwestern Ontario

PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:08 am    Post subject: Do you think Jack Layton Still Wants an Election? Reply with quote

Nice showing Jack. Can't even beat the greens. HA! HA! Ha!

Look at what the split in the vote did to the lefties especially Vancouver-Quadra. I bet if the greens get 10% nationally we get our majority!
TorontoCon





Joined: 14 Aug 2007
Posts: 796
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votes: 5

PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've got my eye on the north. Not many seats up there but I'd like to see a sea of blue from the Yukon right across the northern coast to Quebec. That would send a message that we have the support for Northern Development, Sovereignty and Protection.

I'd also like to see a complete sweep of non-416 Ontario and even more gains in Quebec.

And while I'd like to see the NDP lose Toronto seats, unfortunately they'd have to go back to the Liberals. I'd be OK with that. The NDP must go... AND why is the NDP still strong in some areas of BC? If Vancouver Quadra was any indication, they might have slipped right across BC??
FF_Canuck





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 3360
Reputation: 73.4
votes: 17
Location: Southern Alberta

PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2008 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

While the Yukon has been held by the NDP or Liberals since 1987, they have a previous history of conservative voting, and it might be possible to pick up a seat there (the Reform party was only 3% short of taking the seat in 1997).

A breakthrough in Western Arctic (NWT) is unlikely, given demographics and voting history (no PC/CPC mp since 1984, and even then won with fewer than 200 votes), while Nunavut (formerly Nunatsiaq) has been a Liberal stronghold since 1988.
TorontoCon





Joined: 14 Aug 2007
Posts: 796
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votes: 5

PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think that we can throw out all those years when the "right" was dissolved into three partys (Reform, Allaince, PC).

How many years was it again?

I think that since the Liberals won so handily during those years, the people somehow thought the Liberals are Canada's "natural" governing party (over the past two decades).... I think that sentiment is slowly being lost and the DEMONIZING of the right has far less impact than it did during the late 80's, 90's and during the first year's of Harper's leadership.

I think that any seat outside 416, and in Montreal that are considered Liberal "strongholds" won't be "strongholds" for much longer.

Vancouver Quadra spoke volumes to me... If Quadra can be THAT close after being HANDILY won for several years by the Liberals (largely due to the split of the RIGHT parties to three party status.... and due to the popularity of Mr. Owen...) then IMO, almost any PERCIEVED Liberal stronghold can be had.

....except Toronto because we're blind out here and the local media plays to the Liberal brand... lol
Mac





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
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Location: John Baird's riding...

PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 9:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If the Greenies ever make a breakthrough, I suspect it'll be in the North... or in TO.

-Mac
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
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Location: The World

PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 9:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe its just me,
But I don't see the Green's winning a seat in the next election.

By-elections tend to bring out the hard core partisan voters in full force, in a real election I suspect a riding like London North Centre will return the Green's to fourth place.

In order to break through they need to stop being a one issue party, and they are failing to do so.

Liz May could have won them a seat, had she opted to not Kamikaze herself in a riding she will not win.

When a real election comes along the Green support will be higher then expected, but not high enough to do anything except split votes and win seats for the Tories.
mbennett





Joined: 03 Oct 2006
Posts: 105
Reputation: 26.2Reputation: 26.2Reputation: 26.2

PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 11:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am truly scared of the NDP.

Being from Saskatchewan, you begin to fear them. They say they care about the poor. That they care about the environment. But nothing could be further from the truth.

The NDP are actually a unionist Party.

Take Saskatchewan for an example.

We have the Highest rates of child Prostitution with the youngest being 8 years old in the Dominion of Canada.

We have the longest waiting lists in our hospitals in Canada

We have the WORST inner city in Canada (which was situated in former premier Lorne Calvert's old riding)

We have the Highest rate of drug addictions in Canada, yet there are no rehabilitation clinics specified to drug users!

We have the highest rate of crime in Canada

We have among the most overcrowded schools in Canada.

Yet we have lived under NDP socialist rule basically since the revered Tommy D. came to power.

HOW CAN YOU HAVE THESE THINGS IF YOUR A SOCIALIST!

Well...

we also happen to have the highest union membership in NORTH AMERICA

In Canada there is an average of 67 bureaucrats for every 1000 people. In Saskatchewan there is 140.

The truth is the NDP don't care about people. They care about the Union.

Jack Layton is one in the same, he will say he cares about the poor and our innercities but ultimately he will just make Canada safer for unions.
He is against NAFTA, because it dwindles union membership.
He is against the war in Afghanistan, mostly because the Union's he represent don't represent the military.
He is pro-Marjuana legalization so he can unionize the producers and sellers of the drug.
He will probably create a new crown corp once he legalizes pot and prostitution, he will call them SaskGrow and SashHOE

I'd MUCH rather see an extra Liberal in the HOC then an Dipper.


Anyways thats my vent for the day :D
TorontoCon





Joined: 14 Aug 2007
Posts: 796
Reputation: 50.5
votes: 5

PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 11:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Maybe its just me,
But I don't see the Green's winning a seat in the next election.

By-elections tend to bring out the hard core partisan voters in full force, in a real election I suspect a riding like London North Centre will return the Green's to fourth place.

In order to break through they need to stop being a one issue party, and they are failing to do so.

Liz May could have won them a seat, had she opted to not Kamikaze herself in a riding she will not win.

When a real election comes along the Green support will be higher then expected, but not high enough to do anything except split votes and win seats for the Tories.


I agree but if May is allowed to take part in the leaders debates, they might grab a seat in a riding with weak candidates and with voters concerned about the environment.
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 7510
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votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TorontoCon wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
Maybe its just me,
But I don't see the Green's winning a seat in the next election.

By-elections tend to bring out the hard core partisan voters in full force, in a real election I suspect a riding like London North Centre will return the Green's to fourth place.

In order to break through they need to stop being a one issue party, and they are failing to do so.

Liz May could have won them a seat, had she opted to not Kamikaze herself in a riding she will not win.

When a real election comes along the Green support will be higher then expected, but not high enough to do anything except split votes and win seats for the Tories.


I agree but if May is allowed to take part in the leaders debates, they might grab a seat in a riding with weak candidates and with voters concerned about the environment.


The issue is will May be allowed in the debate?

Frank de Jong was polling at 10-12% in Ontario, and won 8% of the popular vote with no seats and even with impressive poll numbers CBC told him to fly a kite.

No seats, while 5% is impressive keep in mind that the Reform had an MP in power via by-election and only got into the debate because they were polling nearly at 20% weeks before the debate.

Had Turner joined the Greens, or had May won London North Centre by all means but I just don't see it.

If we look at it rationally the closest the Greens came in 2006 was Ottawa Centre, where they rode the personal popularity of David Chernushenko to 10.2% of the popular vote.

While had May run in somewhere like BC Interior, or Northern Ontario perhaps having the leader of the party focusing attention on a riding that no party runs a strong candidate in then sure,

If the Greens can get someone like say David Suzuki to run in an Urban Toronto riding, or some other "star" candidate I just don't see the momentum carrying forward, especially after a brutally cold winter.
mrsocko





Joined: 29 Oct 2006
Posts: 2463
Reputation: 131.2
votes: 8
Location: Southwestern Ontario

PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 5:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The only party that will want the Greens in on the debates is the CPC. An increase in their support will only fracture the left some more. I don't know how Jack "Mister Inclusion" Layton will spin his rejection of there participation in the debates but I sure he will come up with someting. otherwise his favourtite tune will be "Wipe Out by the Beach Boys". That's what will happen to the Smillin Jack if the Greens reach double digits in support.



If they are allowed in without having won a single seat I would be very surprised. The Socreds back in the day where not allowed to be in with 3-5 seats so why the Greens.
TorontoCon





Joined: 14 Aug 2007
Posts: 796
Reputation: 50.5
votes: 5

PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 6:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mrsocko wrote:
The Socreds back in the day where not allowed to be in with 3-5 seats so why the Greens.


Who's that again?

You guys might be right. Do you think that if enough Canadians signed their petition, that the CBC would listen and allow May to take part?

Alot has happened since the last election and "environmental issues" have really taken centre stage since 2006.

I don't even really remember environment being an issue in the last election AT ALL.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens.
mrsocko





Joined: 29 Oct 2006
Posts: 2463
Reputation: 131.2
votes: 8
Location: Southwestern Ontario

PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 6:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Who's that again?


Social Credit Party of Canada. Circa 1973.
MichaelBluth





Joined: 02 Mar 2008
Posts: 51
Reputation: 18.9Reputation: 18.9
votes: 2

PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's doubtful the Greens will win a seat in the next election.

The rise of the greens are a dream for the CPC. They will steal votes from the NDP and the Liberals.

Chretien won a minority with 38.5% of the popular vote in the 1997 election. The Conservatives will win a majority next election. There is a good chance they could do it with less than the Liberals won in 1997.
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Do you think Jack Layton Still Wants an Election?

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