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kwlafayette





Joined: 03 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 1:18 am    Post subject: Super Tuesday. Reply with quote

So, who won super Tuesday? Who has the most delegates? Who has momentum? Who has to quit?
FF_Canuck





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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 1:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like no big changes after Super-Tuesday. No one has to drop out, Clinton is barely leading Obama, while McCain has a sizeable lead over Romney and Huckabee.

Huckabee appears to be sweeping the southern states, McCain is dominating the open contests and winner take all states, and Romney seems to be winning almost exclusively in the mid-west.

Current GOP Delegate Count: McCain 487, Romney 176, Huckabee 122, Paul 11
GOP delegates needed to win: 1,191
GOP delegates yet to be elected: 1,584

Current Democrat Count: Clinton 631 Obama 525
Democrat delegates needed to win: 2,025
Democrat delegates yet to be elected:2,867

Source: CNN.com
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 10:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What about the delegates that Thompson and the other guys had before they dropped out? Are those people committed to voting a certain way, or do they get to decide later?
FascistLibertarian





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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So McCain only needs 44% of the rest of the delegates while Romney needs 64%.
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A lot of the Republican base seems to be rather cool on McCain. And with Hillary or Obama, why would a Democrat choose to vote Republican? This strategy of trying to appeal to crossover voters, I think they are going about it the wrong way. It seems that instead of setting policy, and getting people to cross, the Republican party is crossing, leaving its base and going after a new one. Risky strategy, you could end up with no votes.
mltoryblue





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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kwlafayette wrote:
A lot of the Republican base seems to be rather cool on McCain. And with Hillary or Obama, why would a Democrat choose to vote Republican? This strategy of trying to appeal to crossover voters, I think they are going about it the wrong way. It seems that instead of setting policy, and getting people to cross, the Republican party is crossing, leaving its base and going after a new one. Risky strategy, you could end up with no votes.


I think their taking the John Tory approach. Completely ignore your base, cross the middle and try to out lib the liberals. Those of us from Ontario know how well that strategy works.
Bleatmop





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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kwlafayette wrote:
A lot of the Republican base seems to be rather cool on McCain. And with Hillary or Obama, why would a Democrat choose to vote Republican? This strategy of trying to appeal to crossover voters, I think they are going about it the wrong way. It seems that instead of setting policy, and getting people to cross, the Republican party is crossing, leaving its base and going after a new one. Risky strategy, you could end up with no votes.


Doesn't the "Base" vote in the primaries? If the base really didn't want a particular candidate, wouldn't their numbers be sufficient to ensure said candidate doesn't win? I mean, these are party members voting, and by definition arn't the declared Republicans in fact the base?
peter_puck





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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 9:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

A lot of the Republican base seems to be rather cool on McCain. And with Hillary or Obama, why would a Democrat choose to vote Republican? This strategy of trying to appeal to crossover voters, I think they are going about it the wrong way. It seems that instead of setting policy, and getting people to cross, the Republican party is crossing, leaving its base and going after a new one. Risky strategy, you could end up with no votes.


The Republicans are going into this as huge underdogs because of Bush: people do not want to vote Republican. You still have the base, but the base can't win elections.

I think the best Republican strategy is:

1) Set your goal as not having Obama as President
2) Choose a candidate who can make the race about leaders rather than the party
3) Choose a candidate who has broad appeal.

It is better to have a candidate who can win the centre. The base is gonna vote anyway, cause Obama is WAY liberal and Clinton is just hated.

I guess the bottom line is that there is no way you are going to have 4 years of Huckabee (he will be chewed up and spit out). Your choice is 4 years of Obama the uber liberal or 4 years of McCain.
FascistLibertarian





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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 1:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

oh and the delegates move to whoever the person who dropped out endorses
peter_puck





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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 8:17 am    Post subject: John Tory Reply with quote

Quote:


I think their taking the John Tory approach. Completely ignore your base, cross the middle and try to out lib the liberals. Those of us from Ontario know how well that strategy works.



John Tory did not loose because he moved left and ignored the base. He lost because he threw the base one big bone- funding for private religious schools. The Liberals were then able to make it the sole campaign issue. While Tory may have become more of a liberal, because of that mistake, he was viewed by many people as being hard right winger.

If you look at the polls before that boneheaded move, the election was too close to call.


Again, we are playing defense in the US. Conservatives are not that popular right now. We are in danger of having the first really left wing government in the US since Carter.
To give another analogy (and I may have the wrong Greek): It was decided that Socrates had to be punished. In those days the defense would suggest a punishment and so would the prosecution. The court would choose which one was more reasonable. Socrates chose something that was not really a punishment at all, the prosecution then responded by choosing death. Even though whatever Socrates did was not worthy of death, he was sentenced to death because it was the most reasonable alternative. For those hockey fans, the Scott Stevens free agent compensation works the same way.

For whatever reason, the US public thinks the neo-cons should be punished. We can choose a punishment: Huckabee or McCain. However, if we choose Huckabee, the Democrats can choose death ( Obama with stable majorities in the house and senate).
Obama would have the ability to role back reforms all the way back to Jimmy Carter.
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 11:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bleatmop wrote:
kwlafayette wrote:
A lot of the Republican base seems to be rather cool on McCain. And with Hillary or Obama, why would a Democrat choose to vote Republican? This strategy of trying to appeal to crossover voters, I think they are going about it the wrong way. It seems that instead of setting policy, and getting people to cross, the Republican party is crossing, leaving its base and going after a new one. Risky strategy, you could end up with no votes.


Doesn't the "Base" vote in the primaries? If the base really didn't want a particular candidate, wouldn't their numbers be sufficient to ensure said candidate doesn't win? I mean, these are party members voting, and by definition arn't the declared Republicans in fact the base?


You are right, but the counter point is that John Tory got himself elected leader of his party, and the base did not turn out for him when it counted. That is basically what McCain is doing now, getting himself elected leader of the party. There has been no actual test yet of how widespread, or not, anyone's appeal actually is.
FascistLibertarian





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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 2:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Romney dropped out but is keeping his delegates.
this should help mccains long term fundraising in 2 ways
1) wont spend as much
2) will get more donations
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 2:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So it is McCain or Huckabee now? Is either one capable of really getting the vote out come election day? I guess that means Romney can just let his delegates vote freely, or bring them with him if he gets the VP nod.
Mike McB





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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 4:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kwlafayette wrote:
What about the delegates that Thompson and the other guys had before they dropped out? Are those people committed to voting a certain way, or do they get to decide later?


I know that Thompson and Giulliani both through their support behind McCain. Thompson did it after South Carolina and Giulliani did it after Florida..
Craig
Site Admin




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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 10:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kwlafayette wrote:
So it is McCain or Huckabee now? Is either one capable of really getting the vote out come election day? I guess that means Romney can just let his delegates vote freely, or bring them with him if he gets the VP nod.


Depends who McCain picks as a running mate. I've heard Condoleza Rice mentioned.
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