Home FAQ Search Memberlist User Groups Register Login   

BloggingTories.ca Forum IndexBloggingTories.ca Forum Index
    Index     FAQ     Search     Register     Login         JOIN THE DISCUSSION - CLICK HERE      

*NEW* Login or register using your Facebook account.

Not a member? Join the fastest growing conservative community!
Membership is free and takes 15 seconds


CLICK HERE or use Facebook to login or register ----> Connect



  

Post new topic   Reply to topic Page 1 of 1
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
First Lady





Joined: 04 Nov 2007
Posts: 103
Reputation: 32.9Reputation: 32.9Reputation: 32.9

PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:21 pm    Post subject: CTV poll on Alberta Alliance / Wildrose merger Reply with quote

CTV poll of the day:

Quote:
What do you think about a merger between the Alberta Alliance and Wildrose parties?

- Gives Conservatives a strong alternative
- A completely new party is needed
- Won't have any effect in the next election


http://calgary.ctv.ca/
First Lady





Joined: 04 Nov 2007
Posts: 103
Reputation: 32.9Reputation: 32.9Reputation: 32.9

PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Video of the coverage is now online.

http://tinyurl.com/24mrjj

Link is to the right of the article.
Riley W





Joined: 08 Jul 2007
Posts: 857
Reputation: 35.5Reputation: 35.5Reputation: 35.5Reputation: 35.5
votes: 10
Location: Manitoba

PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 10:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hope they include you in the TV debates this time!

Is the leader right when he says hundreds of thousands (6 digit number) of conservatives stayed home last election?
First Lady





Joined: 04 Nov 2007
Posts: 103
Reputation: 32.9Reputation: 32.9Reputation: 32.9

PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 12:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Riley W wrote:
Hope they include you in the TV debates this time!

Is the leader right when he says hundreds of thousands (6 digit number) of conservatives stayed home last election?


If we use Calgary - Elbow as an example. (Klein's turf)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calgary_Elbow

Between the 2001 and 2004 elections the PC's got over 3000 fewer votes.
Between the 2004 and 2007 by-election they were down another 2000+.

Mulitpy either of these differences by 83 constituencies and yes, we are into 6 digits numbers.

There has been no equivilant numbers going to any other party.
So there is a significant number of votes up for grabs.
FF_Canuck





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 3360
Reputation: 73.4
votes: 17
Location: Southern Alberta

PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 2:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

While I don't disagree that there are many small-c conservative votes up for grabs in the next provincial election, the 'hundreds of thousands' estimate is based on shaky ground.

The first issue is sample size - extrapolating the results of one district to the entire province will result in wild innacuracy.

Secondy, this was Ralph Klein's riding. As Joe Clark demonstrated in federal elections, a win for the leader of a party does not translate into a win for the party - I would argue that no small portion of the 2004 votes were for Ralph, or the Premier, not for the PCs.

Furthermore, this was a byelection and byelection results are notoriously non-indicative of general election outcomes.

That being said, I did some math and came to a funny conclusion. I divided all voters in to two camps: Lib/NDP/Green, and PC/All/SoCred. The ratio of 'right' voters to 'left' voters in 2004 was 7515 (55.8%) to 5951 (44.2%). In 2007, the ratio was 4648 (44.7%) to 5760 (55.3%).

However, if you assume (boldly) that the approx. 2,985 voters who stayed home in 2007 showed up instead and all voted 'right', the ratio changes to 57% vs 43% - almost exactly the same as the 2004 results. It proves nothing, but its interesting.
Post new topic   Reply to topic Page 1 of 1

  


 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You can attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum


CTV poll on Alberta Alliance / Wildrose merger

phpBBCopyright 2001, 2005 phpBB