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cbasu





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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 4:12 pm    Post subject: The French Presidential Elections: Sego v Sarko. Reply with quote

What a wonderful debate - the format, the emotion, the substantive discussion, and the drama.

Sarko scored a hit on Sego early on when she proposed (but quickly backtracked) on a tax for retirees.

But Sego scored a technical hit on Sarko who - apparently - did not know what percentage of the electricity consumed in France is generated by nuclear power (17% according to Sego). Sarko also apparently did not know whether a prototype nuclear plant is 3rd or 4th generation.

But Sego - depending on how it gets played - may have scored a TKO on Sarko when she (using the kind of drama only a French woman can employ) blamed Sarko for cutting education funding for handicapped children.

"Yes, I am angry", said Sego, "but sometimes anger in the face of injustice is entirely justified". Nice. Seemed to defuse Sarko's claims that Sego is losing her calm, and that Presidents needed to keep their nerves.

Sarko will probably still win on May 6, because France is really a centre-right country. But, Sego may have won the debate simply because expectations were so low for her.

Either way, France will win because for the first time in memory they are having a choice between two attractive modernist politicians who seem to recognize the changes that are required in France, but seem to fundamentally differ on how to get there.

Update 6 May 2007 1826 EDT: Nicholas Sarkozy won by about 6% (or about 2 million votes out of 33 million cast, 85% turnout - highest in several decades). Detailed results can be found here.


Last edited by cbasu on Sun May 06, 2007 5:35 pm; edited 2 times in total
kwlafayette





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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actually, Sego is most definitely the status quo candidate. If she got elected, absolutely nothing in France would change. There is a small chance for some change under Sarko. At least from what I have read.
PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 10:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sarko can get France back on track again
Craig
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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 11:03 pm    Post subject: Re: The French Presidential Debate: Sego v Sarko. Reply with quote

cbasu wrote:
Sarko will probably still win on May 6, because France is really a centre-right country.


How do you figure?
cbasu





Joined: 03 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2007 8:03 am    Post subject: Re: The French Presidential Debate: Sego v Sarko. Reply with quote

Craig wrote:
cbasu wrote:
Sarko will probably still win on May 6, because France is really a centre-right country.

How do you figure?

The Presidency has been under centre-right control for the last 12 years. The Parliament, EP are also under centre-right control. Sarkozy has been part of - but not necessarily a fan of - the Chirac adminsitration for the past decade, which gives him a very important "experience" card.

Paris is under leftist control. The unions are still very strong, and the French, like their compatriots in Western Europe, also love their social programs. But, on subjects ranging from immigration, European integration, culture, defence, and even religion, France is a conservative country.
PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2007 11:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

From what I understand Royal lacks the leadership skills and people have noticed that and thats why she is not very well-liked.

In her last debate, she got angry and out of control. It was terrifying to see her like that
strong conservative





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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2007 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

center right in france doesn't mean right on the political spectrum

35 hr work weeks, lifetime employment, nationalist industrial policies, massive bureaucracies... none of that is "right", its completely socialist.
FascistLibertarian





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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2007 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not to mention how protectionist they are of their industries......
Most sociology majors think they deserve employment for life when they get out of uni, how is that for sucking the peoples will to work.
They do use a lot of nuclear power though :)
Thats not right wing so much as common sense!
On the other hand their pace of life is a lot slower, it is kind of nice, tons of British people move there because life in Anglo countries is a lot of rushed work.
cbasu





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PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2007 1:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sarkozy wins, as expected, with an estimated 53% of the popular vote.

Segolene Royal did well at 47% given that the Socialists didn't even make it to the 2nd round in 2002.

The Parliamentary elections on 10/17 June will determine if Sarko has to cohabitate with either a Socialist PM or a Centrist/UDF PM.
Joahob





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PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2007 1:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

But Sego scored a technical hit on Sarko who - apparently - did not know what percentage of the electricity consumed in France is generated by nuclear power (17% according to Sego).

No. It must be more than that.
cbasu





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PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2007 1:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Joahob wrote:
No. It must be more than that.

Still ticked off about the "monarchy" post, eh :-)

I would have thought you'd be a fan of the Socialist in the French elections - after all, her last name is "ROYAL".

Fan or not, one has to admire the Socialists for coming this close. Remember, they didn't even make it past the first round the last time!
Cool Blue





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PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2007 5:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I understood that France got like 40% of its energy from nukes.
Joahob





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PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2007 5:18 pm    Post subject: cbasu Reply with quote

I had expected Le Pen to poll better in the first round given that crime was the prime issue. And, yes, I am a bit surprised Royal polled as well as she did. It is not admiration that I have but stupefaction. Given her reputation for embarrassing gaffes (Corsican independence, nuclear submarines, etc.) I am sure Royal would have proved quite incompetent as president.

I am not a fan of the Socialists. I am not quite sure what lead you to suspect this of me. Nor am I "ticked off" about the monarchy thread. You presume too much.

Normally I would assume that your post was in err, but given Royal's reputation, it would not surprise me if she mistakenly stated that 17 percent of the electricity consumed in France is generated by nuclear power. That is patently false. France is renowned for its nuclear reactors, and so instantly I knew that this could not be true. In fact, France is an exporter of electricity to Germany and elsewhere. And according to the Maclean's article I read this afternoon, France has 58 nuclear reactors which generate 80% of the country's electricity.
cbasu





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PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2007 7:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Joahob wrote:
Normally I would assume that your post was in err, but given Royal's reputation, it would not surprise me if she mistakenly stated that 17 percent of the electricity consumed in France is generated by nuclear power. That is patently false.

Cool Blue wrote:
I understood that France got like 40% of its energy from nukes.

I cannot find the debate transcript anywhere, but I am pretty sure I heard correctly. It did seem odd to me which is why I included it in the original post.

If I have heard and translated correctly, it is possible that Sego (or her debate coach) may have confused one set of numbers for another. According to this fact sheet (second last paragraph) from the French Embassy in the US, France produces about 16% of the world's nuclear electricity and ~78% of her own.

Sarko has made a lot of promises. People forget that he was the Interior Minister, and for the last ~2 years, the Finance Minister. His party/bloc controls both legislative chambers as well as Elysee Palace. He knows how to get headlines, but is he capable of pushing through reforms in the French and European parliaments?

We'll see if things are going to change now, but the institutional forces in Western Europe (Germany, Spain, Italy and France, in particular) are so strongly organised against any kind of fundamental reform that Sarko may meet the same fate as Jacques Chirac in terms of both effectiveness and popularity.
PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2007 2:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sarko the American won. Every one happy, YOUTHS unhappy

:D
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