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McGuire





Joined: 05 Sep 2006
Posts: 369
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Location: Soviet Pictouwestistan

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 2:34 pm    Post subject: Calgary Grit's 1st ballot projections Reply with quote

I think this is probably the most accurate overview of the race as of now

Ignatieff 26.76%
Kennedy 17.67%
Rae 15.03%
Dion 12.41%
Volpe 10.17%
Dryden 6.90%
Brison 6.58%
Findlay 2.05%
Bennett 1.75%
Fry 0.67%

Here's the URL to check out the methodology he used

http://calgarygrit.blogspot.co.....pdate.html
cbasu





Joined: 03 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think this is going to be between Rae and Kennedy. Ignatieff would have to win (or come close) on the first ballot.

If the end-Sept numbers for him are not there, expect a lot of his backers to either fish for a new candidate or move en masse to Rae or Kennedy depending on who has the higher tallies that weekend.
Craig
Site Admin




Joined: 29 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cbasu: could you use the default font size? That small font is hard to read.

We know Kennedy and Rae's votes will merge at some point. The question is where will Dion, Volpe, Dryden, Findley, and Brison's votes go?

I think Volpe and Brison's votes will go to Iggy. I think Dion and Dryden's will split fairly evenly.
cbasu





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PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Dion is probably the one with any significant numbers after "superweekend". It is difficult to see Quebec delegates flocking to Iggy given his foreign policy stances.

I doubt if Volpe has any residual control over all the new members Jimmy K. signed up. They go to Rae or Kennedy.

Like I said: Iggy would have to win it or come very close on the first ballot. Otherwise, it is back to Harvard.
Craig
Site Admin




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PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I hope it is Kennedy and not Rae. Rae will kill the NDP and he won't lose many Liberal votes to the Conservatives (they probably would have moved already). Kennedy doesn't have the name recognition and the organizational power to do anything significant in the next election.
cbasu





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PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2006 11:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actually, Craig, I am worried about Kennedy the most. His biography, demographic profile, photogenic family, media savviness and considerable debating skills would make him a formidable opponent.

Of course, all of the top tier Liberal candidates would make tough opponents. It would also not surprise me to see Manley and/or McKenna get into the race late.
Stephen





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
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Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cbasu wrote:
It would also not surprise me to see Manley and/or McKenna get into the race late.


It would surprise me too because I'm certain that it's against the rules at this point.
McGuire





Joined: 05 Sep 2006
Posts: 369
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Location: Soviet Pictouwestistan

PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 5:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cbasu wrote:
Actually, Craig, I am worried about Kennedy the most. His biography, demographic profile, photogenic family, media savviness and considerable debating skills would make him a formidable opponent.

Of course, all of the top tier Liberal candidates would make tough opponents. It would also not surprise me to see Manley and/or McKenna get into the race late.


Kennedy can't do much in the next election, but 4-5 years down the road he would be quite formidable. If the Liberals are smart (but we know the answer to this already don't we) they'd concede the next election, do what they must do in order to remain a relevant & viable political party & in the near future they'd be back to being a very strong & capable party. Kennedy is the leader who would do that.

As for the next election, Dion would be toughest. He can't win, but he would definately hold us to a minority.
FF_Canuck





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
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Location: Southern Alberta

PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 6:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Considering how disconnected their leadership candidates are from actual policy directions, I'm agreed that their best choice will be Kennedy. He doesn't seem to have much baggage, and seems so generically Liberal that it will be very easy to brand him however they wish.
McGuire





Joined: 05 Sep 2006
Posts: 369
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2006 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The big strike he has going for him IMO is that he lost the Ontario liberal leadership race 10 years ago to McGuinty. I mean if ya can't even beat Dalton, then how are you gonna beat Harper??
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Calgary Grit's 1st ballot projections

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