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Stephen





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
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Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2006 6:53 pm    Post subject: Poll finds Liberals, Tories in dead heat Reply with quote

Quote:
BRIAN LAGHI

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

OTTAWA The leaderless federal Liberals have caught up to Stephen Harper's Tories in electoral popularity for the first time since the federal election campaign, according to a new poll that shows the parties in a dead heat.

The survey, conducted for The Globe and Mail-CTV News, finds that the two parties would each receive 32 per cent of the votes were an election to be held today.

It also finds that in such an election, Bob Rae would be the favourite Liberal leadership candidate to take on Stephen Harper.

Given the numbers, Mr. Harper would be well advised not to call an election now, said Allan Gregg, chairman of The Strategic Counsel, which conducted the poll.


I've always suspected Strategic Counsel poll results (I trust SES most).

Assuming these poll results accurately reflect the voting intentions of Canadians, what are the reasons for these numbers?

In the same poll Harper beat out all Liberal leadership contenders by at least 10 points on "best person for PM".

If the Liberals and Conservatives are tied in the numbers, are Canadians seeing an "ideal Liberal as leader of that party" since there isn't a visible leader? Do they individually see the characteristics of leadership that they'd like now that the Liberals don't have a leader?

Are these results even accurate given Garth's defection today and the Green Plan that is to be announced tomorrow?
Cool Blue





Joined: 21 Sep 2006
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Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2006 8:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hm, Liberals talk of Israeli "warcrimes" but are mum on Hezbolla and they see a rise in their polling?

Anyway, I don't buy this poll; it doesn't jive with what I'm seeing on the ground.

In my riding the CPC is attracting new volunteers and bringing in donations like never before.

From what I gather on the other side, their membership is only 1/6th of what it used to be and only 20% of members showed up to vote for delegates despite the fact that the former MP in our riding is a campaign manager for one of the candidates.

I know all this because they now have some amateur running their EDA who was stupid enough to actually report this to local newspapers; which in itself isn't a healthy sign of their organization.
FF_Canuck





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
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Location: Southern Alberta

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2006 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think "Ideal Leader" effect is definately still at work. I predict a 5-8 point drop following the Liberals choosing a leader other than the also-rans.
CC Scott





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
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Location: Edmonton

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2006 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't trust any polls put out by the Stategic Council. And I also can't figure out the shift that this poll says happened.
biggie





Joined: 06 Sep 2006
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Location: Ottawa, Ontario

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2006 11:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polls, polls... always a poll..

I don't put a lot of trust in polls. I think the numbers (if accurate) reflect the intensifying attacks on the CPC because of policies. The Liberals are growing a backbone, and now they're fighting hard. Not smart... but then again, they're not conservatives ;)
kwlafayette





Joined: 03 Sep 2006
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Location: Saskatoon Saskatchewan

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2006 11:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I hope the polls give the Liberals enough backbone to force the third election in 2 years.
don muntean





Joined: 07 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2006 11:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CC Scott wrote:
I don't trust any polls put out by the Stategic Council. And I also can't figure out the shift that this poll says happened.


What's up with the hand gun in yer new avatar pic? Doesn't that look thugish? I agree polls are a waste - they only serve to tell us what some people think about certain issues - when the vast majority never think of those issues and only follow what the polls are saying.
CC Scott





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
Posts: 151
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Location: Edmonton

PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

don muntean wrote:
What's up with the hand gun in yer new avatar pic? Doesn't that look thugish?


Don't drag this topic off-topic. That being said, It's a scene from the movie The Big Lebowski.


Anyways, I did like how CTV News constructed the graphic of the poll results in their newscast last night. The Liberals being on top of the graph. Not sure the reason for this, since they're even though their not the government or higher in the alphabetical order (the two ways I would think they would use to order the graph in case of a tie). Just an interesting side-note.
biggie





Joined: 06 Sep 2006
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Location: Ottawa, Ontario

PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

surprise surprise..

The CTV strikes again hehehe
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Poll finds Liberals, Tories in dead heat

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