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cbasu





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PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 8:15 am    Post subject: Stephen Harper is finished. Reply with quote

That is the triumphant conclusion of the Toronto Star based on the latest poll smoking fumes from the always reliable Ekos.

In an Oct 14/06 Star column entitled 'Harper's hopes fading' Chantal Hebert wrote:
(unabridged, emphasis added) If this keeps up, Stephen Harper can kiss his hopes for a majority in the next election goodbye and, with them, his dream of turning the Conservatives into Canada's natural governing party.

It would be bad enough for the minority government if today's EKOS poll only confirmed its failure to thrive in voting intentions. At the national level, the Conservative score of 36 per cent basically mirrors the results of the last election.

That's despite the fact that the Prime Minister has had the stage almost exclusively to himself all summer and that he has been pounding away at new policy announcements since the return of Parliament.

It's also despite the fact that the Liberals are still leaderless and that their campaign, according to the same poll, has failed to engage one in two voters and to produce a popular front-runner.

On that particular score, the poll results are at best a mixed bag. The Liberals may be having a four-way race to the top but for the Canadian public, their campaign is primarily a two-way contest between Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff, with Gerard Kennedy and Stéphane Dion making up a somewhat distant second tier.

And while Rae emerges as the favourite for Liberal leader, it is Ignatieff whom poll respondents find more likely to bring the Liberals to victory in an election. Those contradictory findings could be a sign that when respondents of all political persuasions select their preferred choice, they sometimes do so on the basis of their own partisan interest, by looking for the leader least likely, at least in their minds, to do their own party damage, rather than with an eye to the best chances of the Liberals.

But if the Liberals, based on the tepid public response to their leadership campaign, are not holding the Conservatives back, then it follows that the government is failing to build efficiently on its gains from the last election through its own actions or lack of them.

Indeed, even with the same score as last January, the Conservatives are probably further from their goal of a majority than they were on the morning after the last election, and certainly more removed from it than at the peak of their honeymoon last spring.

In Quebec, the bottom is falling out from under Harper. His party has now dropped to third place, well behind the Bloc Québécois (44 per cent) and four points behind the Liberals (21 per cent).

With their support at 17 per cent, the Tories would be hard-pressed to get their 10 Quebec MPs re-elected, let alone win new seats. Their current standing is a full eight points below their score in the last election.

Quebec is also the only province where a solid majority feels that the government is not moving in the right direction, another sign that the Conservative audience in the province is slipping away quickly.

As bad as they are, these numbers cannot be news to the government. Tory strategists are no less addicted to focus groups and public opinion surveys than their predecessors in power.

In fact, it could well be that some Harper strategists have already given up on Quebec. How else to explain the spate of policy announcements and pronouncements of the past few weeks? If the government had wanted to run its prospects down in Quebec, it could hardly have achieved its purpose more quickly than by insisting on its plan to do away with the long-gun registry on the heels of a deadly shootout at Dawson College in Montreal, the abandonment this week of any pretence that climate change is a federal priority, the elimination of a variety of initiatives such as the court challenges and the literacy programs that have long stricken chords in Quebec and the recent musings about a defence of religions act.

Nor is there any sense that those measures — even as they echo negatively in Quebec — resonate loudly outside the core Conservative base elsewhere in Central Canada.

On the contrary, even as the minority government is bombing its own Quebec beachhead, it is also failing to make up for the ground it sacrifices in that province with gains in Ontario. And that, no matter how you look at it, makes Harper's current approach a self-defeating strategy.

This follows another acerbic gem by Chantal's colleague, the intrepid James Travers, who earlier this week labeled the Harper inner circle "..analytically challenged".

Not to be outdone, Brian Laghi has also chimed in with a glowing profile of the PM's apprentice in today's (Oct 14/06) Globe.

Memo to the PPG: Folks, we're not in election mode yet. Save your ammo and your bile, or you'll have nothing left when hunting and spitting season begins.


Last edited by cbasu on Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
McGuire





Joined: 05 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some are fair points, especially the one about not doing enuf to win over Quebecers. That is a concern.
FF_Canuck





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
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Location: Southern Alberta

PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quebec is definately a problem, but for Harper to have taken a different tack on any of the above mentioned issues would have been a betrayal of the party's idealogical base...

That's the conundrum, I suppose. The Conservatives have to find a way to satisfy the grassroots, without losing more ground in a province that is predominantly leftist and statist.
Craig
Site Admin




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PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have a theory. I think Mr. Harper and the Conservatives are waiting to see who wins the Liberal leadership before they target Quebec and Ontario. Iggy and Rae will each require entirely different strategies for both Ontario and Quebec. After the leadership is over you can bet the real fun begins.
Hunter





Joined: 02 Sep 2006
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Location: Edmonton

PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 11:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is Quebec really that socially out there?? How does a province that was predominately Catholic at on time, become so morally dysfunctional? Or is it only Montreal?? Could the rest of Quebec be more conservative in their views?? I don't know, I haven't been to Quebec in years, but maybe rural Quebecers are like the rest of Canada? You tell/inform me please.
cbasu





Joined: 03 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If polls are to be believed, the Conservatives were 12+ points ahead - and were tied with the Bloc in Quebec - as late as early July. The columns that I have quoted tend to zero in on the apparent reversal in trend lines from early Summer to now.

To do well in Ontario - especially Southern and Eastern Ontario - you have to be seen as a credible political force in Quebec. If the media elite in Quebec write you off - as they appear to be increasingly doing to the Tories - you are not going to get much traction in Ontario. Without holding and gaining seats in Ontario and Quebec, it is difficult to see how any party can form a government.

Fortunately for the Tories, Mr. Harper is a smart man. I am sure he will analyze the polling data and determine when, where, and why inflections have occurred - if they have - in his party's support and make the necessary adjustments.
biggie





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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the last election was a solid indication of how meaningless polls are outside of election time.

Unfortunately, the sole reason for Quebec support falling is Afghanistan. The french are wimpy on foreign policy. They disagree with any sort of conflict(maybe its because they always lose ;) ) That isn't helped by the school shooting and their insane assumption that gun control will somehow stop things like that from happening. The massive lebanese community in montreal caused problems during that conflict, that brings it down slightly more.

I'm not terribly upset if another minority ends up being the outcome of another election - I think it's been good.. Keeps the conservatives moderate, and on their toes - builds their image, and sets the stage for a solid foundation. The Liberals are in trouble because they got the "natural governing party" attitude. I don't want the conservatives to get that..
Bleatmop





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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was just watching CTV newsnet yesterday and they were reporting that the Tories have slipped 2 points in the poll. They slipped 2 points, and the MSM was reporting it like it was big news. Last time I checked, 2% is within most polls margin of error. So basically, there was nothing to report because there was no statistically significant change.

That's how I saw it anyway. Am I wrong?
Buddy Kat





Joined: 24 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This new pro war crime stance that Harper is leading will be his downfall.

Shake and bake Bushs use of phosphorous on civillians-supported by harper

Israels war crimes aginst Lebanon- supported by Harper

Support of a US appointed puppet regime in Afghanistan ,which Canadian soldiers are sacrificing there lives for- Supported by Harper

Cowtowing to every US demand of consequence - supported by Harper

Pressureing ( by threatening there employment) the senate to cow toe his missle defence dreams- Supported by Harper

All the criminal behaviour of the rcmp and csis-Supported by Harper

All that's left is for people to find out after tax time there beer and popcorn bribe was a phoney crock.

Equals the end of the war crime supporting conservative, hence Harper.

Enjoy the gravy ride while you have it, soon it will be over. 8)
Mac





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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 3:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Buddy Kat wrote:
Enjoy the gravy ride while you have it, soon it will be over. 8)


Remind me again why you post to a conservative website? :P

-Mac
biggie





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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The end of mis-spending and weak self-destructive foreign policy - Supported by Harper

The end of trying to pick a fight with our greatest ally and world's sole super power - Supported by Harper

The end of inviting the Taliban and Al Qaeda into canada to install muslim extremism and head tax - Supported by Harper.

The islamification of the planet - Supported by the Taliban, Iran, Syria, and Taliban Jack's NDP party.

Massive government waste, destruction of the Canadian Forces, Lining politician and lobbyist pockets - Supported by the Liberal Party of Canada

Watching leftists spew crazy crack-pot idea's on a Right-wing Forum - Priceless...

Ahmadinejad's left-hand of the NDP has certainly done a fantastic job at propaganda... I mean, they've swayed such an illustrious and well informed individual such as you. They must be proud to have you serving the Ayatollah.

;)

See I can spout wild crazy conspiracies too...
Doesn't make them correct.
biggie





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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Pressureing ( by threatening there employment) the senate to cow toe his missle defence dreams- Supported by Harper


I'm just curious what it is you know about the missile defence shield - Perhaps you could fill us in on your knowledge of it - The reason I ask is that there is absolutely no reason to dislike the idea if you know what it REALLY is.. I find everyone who dislikes it has some pipe-dream idea about the weaponization of space.

How do you justify disagreeing with having the ability to blast ICBMs out of the sky before they hit North American targets - more specifically, how do you think that not being part of us makes us safer? Do you honestly believe that the States won't blow the missiles out of the sky over us as opposed to over their cities? Do you not think it would be safer to destroy them when they aren't flying over our land?
biggie





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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/engli...../flash.stm
Cool Blue





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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 7:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Am I the only one here who is suspicious of these polls that have been coming out for around 6 months now saying that the Tories have "dropped to the election night results"?

How is is that we keep "dropping" yet all the polls show us between 36-38%? IMO, these polls actually show our support to be pretty stable.

FYI: Going into the last election we had around 25% support; next time we'll start off with around 36% Unlike the Toronto Star, I see an increase of 11% over the last 12 months, which we seem to be holding on to, as a good thing.
Buddy Kat





Joined: 24 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 7:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Biggie says

"How do you justify disagreeing with having the ability to blast ICBMs out of the sky before they hit North American targets - more specifically, how do you think that not being part of us makes us safer? Do you honestly believe that the States won't blow the missiles out of the sky over us as opposed to over their cities? Do you not think it would be safer to destroy them when they aren't flying over our land?"


Well that's the catch you see ...Canada IS the buffer zone. Consider placeing a missle defence systems along the can/us border ..Canadian controlled and see then what happens. The US would not allow it..that's right , they would be the buffer zone.

Yes I believe the US would not hesitate for 1 second to protect what has now become the more valuable american. As t is right now the US USES Canada as a warning system to protect their butts , not ours.


To take a defence system seriously the missles would have to be both along the canadian north as well as along the border and preferably Canadian operated. That way Canada is insured of it's protection from both sides in a US foriegn war. Canada should be protecting it's own country from the east and west also.

This present protect the US system under guise of protecting Canada will not work for Canada but rather the US only.
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Stephen Harper is finished.

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